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An update on Treasuries focused on TLT

Cory
April 27, 2017

It has been a while since we checked in with Rick Ackerman on treasuries. Rick has been bullish on treasuries for a long time and is sticking with that call. He also provides a number of reasons why he thinks inflation is not coming and that investors need to be looking at safer assets.

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Discussion
20 Comments
    CFS
    Apr 27, 2017 27:38 AM
    Apr 27, 2017 27:50 AM

    Compelling arguments again. Here’s some more support for Rick’s point of view from a bright mind: “the secular low in bond yields remains in the future, not the past.” Van R. Hoisington Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D.

      Apr 27, 2017 27:41 AM

      Couldn’t agree more. My friend Doug Behnfield, whose commentaries have been featured regularly in Rick’s Picks, touches base regularly with Lacy Hunt and sends me his latest stuff. There are a bunch of us who have never seen any endgame other than a deflationary one. The Fed’s “inflation-is-just-around-the-corner hoax” is about to be laid bare by…U.S. recession.

    CFS
    Apr 27, 2017 27:12 AM

    OFF TOPIC:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYmqm05Lx7s

    Watch this and understand why Trump MUST BE STOPPED…..

    Ivanka that is!

    Apr 27, 2017 27:42 AM

    Tyvm Cory and Rick ☺

    Apr 27, 2017 27:14 AM

    This is the most extreme 3 day RSI in SLV since late November 2015. Of course, silver didn’t bottom for another month. I could see the same thing happen again. In other words, while we may bounce for a day or two, being this oversold on the short term RSI yet not being even remotely oversold on the weekly chart in terms of stochastics does not give me warm fuzzies. Add in the fact that commercials have a record short position in silver and its pretty clear silver is going to get pummeled in the next month or two. Wait until June to see whats up. If silver makes a new 2017 high, I might change my mind, but from here on out its likely going to be going sideways to down for the next couple of months.

    The fact that SLV is now down 9 days in a row smacks of late 2015. This is the shakeout and it could be extremely severe.

      CFS
      Apr 27, 2017 27:20 AM

      Silver had a local bottom in price at 11 a.m. today.
      (Just like I said yesterday)
      Mark my words.

        Apr 27, 2017 27:04 PM

        CFS – words have been marked. Thanks and hope you are correct.

          CFS
          Apr 27, 2017 27:46 PM

          Harvey Organ says it will be 11 am tomorrow, and he knows more than I do.

          I was half asleep this morning.

            Apr 27, 2017 27:27 PM

            News at 11 🙂

        Apr 27, 2017 27:58 PM

        You are already wrong looks like. Price hitting new lows in the globex session.

      Apr 27, 2017 27:35 AM

      Using a 17.230 corrective target for July Silver at the moment, Spanky. It’s a minor one but still useful for bottom-fishing, since it’s possible to stake out a spec long there risking just four ticks on the stop. Great odds if it turns out to be an important bottom.

    Jay
    Apr 27, 2017 27:15 AM

    Falco?

    What’s up with Falco today? Potential buyout in the works?

    Apr 27, 2017 27:18 AM

    SLV is also below the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. Another bearish indicator to throw on the pile.

    Apr 27, 2017 27:24 AM

    FWIW, it looks like AXU’s 50 day ema never crossed below the 200 day ema during the bull and never crossed above the 200 day ema during the bear.

    The 50 day ema is currently getting really close to crossing below the 200 day ema. While not definitive for a bear market, it certainly isn’t going to be confidence inspiring for longs.

    CFS
    Apr 27, 2017 27:25 AM
    b
    Apr 27, 2017 27:46 AM

    I find those Israeli attacks interesting, not the attack, but the fact the planes never get shot down.

    Apr 27, 2017 27:05 PM

    Tighter fundamentals set to persist in zinc market: Sucden
    London (Platts)–27 Apr 2017

    “Zinc three-months prices are expected to trade in a range of $2,500-$2,550/mt in the second quarter, supported by an ongoing tightness in the concentrates and refined metal markets and steady demand growth, brokerage Sucden said in its quarterly report.

    “The fundamentals remain well supportive as mine supply contracted by 6.4% in 2016 on a combination of depleted reserves at some legacy mines, the continued temporary shutdown of excess capacity and a lack of investment in new mine supply,” the report said.

    The tightness has mostly hit the concentrates market, with stockpiles drawn down steadily throughout 2016 — a trend that was sustained in Q1.

    “Smelters increasingly report their difficulty in securing concentrates even with decreasing TCs. Treatment charges are expected to average $179/mt this year, a major cut from last year’s $211/mt and 2015’s $243/mt,” the brokerage said.

    The tighter fundamentals are set to persist supporting zinc prices and reigniting the bullish outlook for the market. But the main question remains whether Glencore in the current environment will be tempted to restart its idled capacity after cutting some 500,000 mt/year in late 2015, Sucden suggested.”

    http://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/london/tighter-fundamentals-set-to-persist-in-zinc-market-26722273?utm_campaign=plattsbulletinemailtemplate_dyncontent%20-%20new%20eg&utm_medium=email&utm_source=eloqua

    Apr 27, 2017 27:22 PM

    What if? The markets are full of what ifs but is it possible that The Federal Reserve could lose their control of the interest rates the market is charging if stocks suddenly started to decline. Wouldn’t this put a pinch on the money supply causing rates to jump 2% or more. DT