A focus on gold stocks and understanding the news ahead for summer
Doc helps me wrap up the markets today in what was a more muted day across the board. We focus on the gold sector and more so on stocks. We look at the difference between stocks that have moved back to almost their lows compared to the stocks that are holding up. We also look ahead to next month when we will start to see drill results from many companies.
Have a great rest of your day everyone, I am off to a number of meetings this afternoon.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
6 days closing under the bollinger band for SLV. Back in 2015, I believe it actually got 7 closes. So maybe it will break its record if we are lucky. Again, I defy anyone to name a stock of ETF that has closed 6+ days under the bollinger bands (20,2).
Natural market action.
Well Silver closed at $16.83 which is the exact same level as the prior trough, we were discussing on yesterday’s Market Wrap blog.
This is a VERY interesting close in that for today, it is literally a “Double Bottom”. If we break out or break down from here seems fairly significant for the mid term.
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On May 2, 2017 at 6:58 am,
Excelsior says:
SILVER
> The recent peak at $18.66 is HIGHER than $18.54 (Higher High)
> That prior peaks of $18.54 was higher than the previous peak at $17.30
> The $16.83 trough, was Higher than $15.68 forming a “Higher Low”.
> Granted, we are testing that $16.83 zone this morning, it will be interesting to see where Silver closes the day an if it can put in a close above that level.
Yesterday’s close was $16.84 (Technically still a Higher Low).
That previous low of $15.68 will come into play as support, long before Silver ever flirts with $13.50, so it just seems like an more extreme projection from Peter B. at this point until we see how the the other levels hold up first.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06240510924
Could we get a bounce in Silver here to complete a double bottom?
> The RSI is oversold at 25.67
> The Slow Stochastics are oversold and crossing at 2.88
> The CCI is oversold at -172.11
If we were going to get a bounce in Silver, this looks like the spot we’d see it IMO.
IMO,,,,,,=== tracking the data, from Dr. Woo Woo, the fall in prices is equal to the amount of effort in writing this script. The real silver play is in the conversion to the mean. IF we ever get mean, and trump this puppy into submission, then the data points will become clear, and we can ring the bell…..and go onto sometime more interesting…….CCFHigh
We haven’t had a return to the mean in quite some time unfortunately, so we can’t really say in the short term or mid term that those ratios have been normal with Gold:Silver. For now I’m watching price action to see if it can keep making higher lows and higher highs, or if if starts making the reverse. That is the most basic way to gauge the trend, and review the technical picture (as Rick A so often mentions).
$silver is done.
We will probably get a pop (maybe even a big one) for a day or two after tomorrow’s FOMC given how ridiculously oversold it is, but it will be sideways to straight down from there. Once the $15.60 level gives way, it will waterfall lower to new multiyear lows.
$nikk in a new bull market. Headed for the moon.
My brother-in-law is a mining engineer living in a gated community in South Africa. He has been trying to sell his house before The South African government takes possession. Some people must learn the hard way, being an engineer doesn’t mean you are smart at anything other than your job. DT
That’s a rough position to be in and South Africa has been doing a lot really stupid things like this lately and they are going to kill all the foreign investment in their country. When other countries have nationalized assets and businesses like this in the past they just tanked their economy, and drove most of the flagship companies into the ground. What a mess.
My interest in Africa has been focused around 7 or 8 countries in West Africa where things are still wild, but more manageable and they clearly want to attract foreign capital and business. The Gold mining business in W. Africa has been booming the last few years.
Ex, peoples opinions differ, The chart readers can’t always tell whether things are going to get better or worse, their opinions differ, there never has been a moment when the best financial opinion was unanimous. Few men like to spread alarm by making dire predictions especially if you are holding securities, but to me the skies do not appear too bright. Time to rethink this prophecy. DT
DT – I agree that opinions different and everyone has an opinion (and they won’t all come to pass). Each time a country in Africa or South America has nationalized mines and factories in recent past they killed foreign investment, created uncertainty, adopted an isolationist strategy, and ultimately tanked their economies. Success leaves clues….. So does failure. History may not repeat but it often rhymes. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. South Africa is adopting a losing strategy and the cracks are already starting to show. That is why your brother-in-law “has been trying to sell his house before The South African government takes possession.” The odds of this strategy working are dubious.
West African countries, in contrast, have been a hive of growth, opportunity, and business expansion the last few years. It’s not perfect, but I feel much more comfortable investing in that part of the world.
Epstein Metals
Thanks CFS.
Epstein end of dayhttps://youtu.be/8na4rm3KU4w?t=33
(DML) (DNN) Denison Reports Q1 2017 Results Including Highlights From Successful Winter 2017 #Exploration Programs
> “On February 13, 2017, Denison closed the #TollMilling Transaction under which Denison received an upfront payment of $32,860,000 (CAD$43,500,000), in exchange for its right to receive future toll milling cash receipts from the MLJV under the current toll milling agreement with the Cigar Lake Joint Venture from July 1, 2016 onwards. The upfront payment has been accounted for as deferred revenue.” $CCO $CCJ $ARVCF
> “Revenue from #DES (Denison Environmental Services) during Q1 2017 was $1,496,000, while revenue from the Company’s management contract with UPC was $307,000.”
> Other Income – During Q1 2017, the Company recognized gains of $3,508,000 in other income. The gains in the current period were predominantly due to gains on investments carried at fair value, of $2,938,000, driven by favourable mark-to-market adjustments on the Company’s investments in $GXU GoviEx Uranium Inc. and $SYH Skyharbour Resources Ltd.
* Q1 2017 PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS
— Extended high-grade mineralization within the Gryphon D series of lenses at Wheeler River
— Continued infill #drilling, to increase the confidence of current resources estimated for the Gryphon deposit, returned confirmatory high-grade and thick intersections
— Executed Agreement to Increase Ownership of Wheeler River Project Up to 66%
— Closed non-dilutive financing for gross proceeds of CAD$43.5 million, providing financial flexibility to fund future project development activities
— Obtained financing for the Company’s 2018 Canadian exploration activities
— Exploration Drilling Outside of the Gryphon Resource
–Evaluation Program / #PFS Activities #Uranium #AthabascaBasin
Appreciate the comments Doc, especially about being in the first inning of the game, same analogy I heard from Michael Belkin a year ago before the top last July. I hope that turns out to be true. I made a lot by last July and held on thinking about being in the early part of the game, failing to take your caution to take some off the table. It seems I have to learn the hard way over and over. I will be picking up mining companies here and there on pull backs and practice patience. I just hope the timing doesn’t keep getting pushed out further and further. By the time it all takes off, I may not be around to see it; but then as a Christian with hope in the Lord, that won’t be so bad.
I said it before, but being selective you can beat the etfs. For example, look at Timmins the last few days. Huge volume. This is a stock talked about here a little while ago.
Sabina SBB is another. It is holding well versus the etfs due to it’s fundamentals and anticipated news events. If NIRB review underway gives them a green light (due in July) then they will really take off.
Agreed. I’m very interested to see if Sabina (SBB) will get their permit. If so they have a bright future and will likely get taken over.
Jason – if you are out there and see this…. Get your rocks off with this.
SEC approves request to list and trade Quadruple-Leveraged ETFs
“One of the funds is designed to deliver 400 percent of the
daily performance of S&P 500 stock index futures, while
another fund will aim to deliver four times the inverse of that
benchmark.”
That is ridiculous……it reminds of CDS’s in the big short. It is all fun until somebody gets hurt. Normal etfs are bad enough. The leverages etfs like that will attract day traders and short term money and only have an illusion of liquidity.
It’s an ETPF ( exchange traded Ponzi fund )
Haha ! I know 4x ETFs coming to a theater near you soon…… (lol)
ditto ridiculous……….ditto ponzi……..ditto ha,ha…………
Ditto those dittos…..
Somewhat unique today is the increasing amount of silver that is standing for delivery at the comex, rising above what was standing on day one, April 30. On that day 16.8 million oz stood for delivery and for two consecutive days it has risen to close to 18.2 million oz. We have not seen that before. Could the bullion banks be getting prepared for a shoot-out with the Hedge funds?
Is There Really More Oil in The Golan Heights than in Saudi Arabia? Who’s Genie Energy?
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong I live in Israel and today I listened to your podcast with Macrovoices. At some point you mentioned that there is more oil in Golan heights than in Saudi Arabia -and this oil belongs to genie energy. Is it true? How can it be that nobody knew nothing about this in Israel?
Interesting to see Murdock Rupert on the committee, Fox news fair and balanced, like duh.
DicK Chaney not a surprise.
Jacob Rothchilde , surprise surprise……not really. same old game going on since 1700, family of screw jobs.
People really need to get informed……..the cabinet of the USA…is full of con men.
Amazing it is plastered all over Fox news…NOT!
Fox news with the departure of Bill OReilly …..was really a Fox in the hen house, a lot of the hens have left …..now they will be pecking for new blonde ding dongs…..
Btw, thanks for the post from Marty A…..
Murdoch….not a secret anymore……more dots getting connected
Genie Energy…….. I DREAM OF GENIE…..who comes up with these names……lol
With the weak open, SLV has a chance to close down 13 days in a row and 7 days under the bollinger bands. That is absolutely incredible.
With the CoTs where they are, I expect this to be a long, ugly slog until the next FOMC meeting in mid-June.
If $silver gives up the 100WMA at $16.57, it won’t be good. That looks like a certainty at this point. At the very least, if by some miracle it does act as a springboard to new highs, I imagine they will at least take it well below that MA intraweek. Silver has sliced through the 50 and 200 WMAs like a hot knife through butter. The fact that SLV’s 50 and 200 WMAs failed to cross is also telling.
With $USDJPY looking so good on every time frame, you have to at least entertain that the secular bull in PMs is over. I think if it is over, the realization will come quickly with a very rapid drop in $silver below its 200 month MA at $15.28.
silver not looking good……..except if you…..think it is going up…and might be a buy, which I think it might……just because the fed paper machine is still printing at high speed, and debt is going to double again………crash mode is to be expected.
IF, Trump is any good……..he will blow up the central bank, LIKE JACKSON, other wise he is a CON…………..SEMI RANT OF THE DAY….
SLV 5 day RSI is at 3.47 this morning. This is the most extreme 5 day RSI since 2012 (not a good thing). Anyone expecting some sort of rocket ship bounce is deluding themselves. This type of relentless selling portends a further grind lower over the next month or two at best, although some sort of rally is due imminently (within days, if not even today).
Actually, slv’s 5 day RSI did hit 3.3 in Sept. 2014. One month later it was $2 lower.
Extrapolating that scenario here, we are looking at sub $15 silver by mid-June.
We should get a fed bounce to get the technicals ready for the LePen trounce next week.
Why put any credence in a bunch of thugs……..ie Fed…….
It’s the Hegalian dialectic. I just know that the masses follow the shiny ball.
nothing like a shiny ball 🙂
Neofeudal system on the way………without self correction in the markets, the elites are screwing themselves. …….article at zerohedge
Primero Mining (NYSE:PPP): Q1 EPS of $0.00 beats by $0.05.
Revenue of $37.7M (-25.4% Y/Y) beats by $2.12M.
It may take a quarter or two for the marketplace to wake up to the turn around going on at Primero, but this was more encouraging than analysts were expecting, so maybe that will give PPP a little tailwinds for a change.
I’m not real worried and bought many thousands well below .50 (to go with the many thousands I bought in the .60s and .70s! 😐 )
SLV just tagged the 100 WMA at 15.75. Wow. Maybe we bounce here for a couple of weeks and then waterfall lower. Hard to say how this plays out. The MAs seem be offering absolutely zero support.
SLV looks like it is determined to build out a giant head and shoulders on the weekly chart. That means the next stop is eventually the neckline at $14.90ish. If that neckline breaks, the odds that the bull is still alive is basically zero.
I’m not concerned at all about the survival of the bull market.
Why? Do you think your miners will go up with declining silver and gold?
No, of course not. I just know that this is shorter term stuff and that the big picture looks great fundamentally. Our patience is getting an extra testing because it is still so early in the new bull. Future corrections will still be scary, but probably not nearly as deep and protracted.
What is “shorter term” stuff?
Short of the miners taking out the 2016 lows, is there a point where you will question your thesis?
I’m always questioning but there is not yet any reason at all to worry about taking out the 2016 lows. None.
There is simply nothing negative about gold’s behavior and the miners just needed to consolidate last year’s massive gains more than I thought.
GLD:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42561552189&a=521457207
Spanky, sharp downsides of a daily cycles are only to be expected in this sector. But the weekly charts still look great, whether in the miners or the metals. Your bearishness seems over the top.
Spanky, sharp downsides of daily cycles are only to be expected in this sector. But the weekly charts still look great, whether in the miners or the metals. Your bearishness seems over the top.
oops, sorry for the double post. guess I wanted to be emphatic 😉
I strongly disagree that the mining charts or silver daily, weekly or monthly charts look bullish. At best they are neutral. They are below their 20 day, 20 week and 20 month MAs. Sorry, that is not bullish to me. The monthly stochastics are not even oversold yet and they are well below 50, which strongly suggests we have another month or two of red in the miners and metals, at best.
Is that a disaster? No, not yet, but there is no way it is bullish.
Spanky, you’re missing the big picture. GH is right when looking at the action from that standpoint. For example, SIL moved up 263% from its low last year before pulling back significantly. The larger the rise, the greater the pullback you should expect. This is normal and necessary for the health of the bull market. The weekly RSI(14) barely went below 40 on that pullback and the price now sits at 50% of last years move up (still up 130%+!).
So, yes, the weekly chart has turned bearish, BUT not unusually so for even a bull market. We could see further declines without damaging the big picture (months out rather than days or weeks).
Those few who get it are buyers into this action.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=W&yr=5&mn=10&dy=0&id=p30910297564&a=491088089
Silver is extremely oversold relative to gold with a daily RSI(14) reading of 17 right now.
SLV:GLD is attempting to fill the gap from last June:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p77948023505
$USDJPY–unless it reverses today, which it could since this is an FOMC day, it has a small inverse head and shoulders on the daily chart which has broken the neckline today and projects back to 115. If 115 breaks, $usdjpy is headed to 160 eventually. Gold and silver are done, as is the rest of the commodity complex.
$silver:$gold monthly ratio chart: there was a bear cross back in 2015. All 2016 amounted to was a backtest to the now declining 50 month MA (just like the miners’ monthly chart). The ratio is now below the 20 month MA. The monthly stochastics are pointed firmly downwards, but are just above 50. If this ratio is going to bounce, it has to bounce this month IMO, or it is in danger of breaking down severely.
Commodities (GCC) are done. GCC’s monthly chart is awful looking. Monthly stochastics pointed firmly down, below 50 and not even close to being oversold yet. At best it double bottoms in the next two months. At worst, commodities are headed to much lower lows, incredibly. The charts, especially the yen, are screaming IMO, to get the hell out. At best you will have to suffer through one hell of a drawdown in the next month or two before a “hope” of a bottom–and that it all it is, pure hope along the lines of a miracle. The $usdjpy looks like a new bull to me based on the monthly charts.
$indu in a beautiful bull flag on the daily.
The loonie hasn’t been so oversold since January, 2016. It has now retraced 62% of its move up last year and has found some fork support…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p96239984660&a=521484960
The following chart won’t show today’s action until this evening, but silver is currently testing its uptrend support line (dashed)…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p82867247263&a=426943004
SIL is bullishly way outperforming SLV today.
-.15% vs -1.7%
the ratio is just backtesting the declining 100 DMA. Yesterday we put in black candle on the sil:slv ratio. We are definitely going below yesterday’s close on the ratio. In other words, there is now way today is going to mark a low.
I think it’s more than you think. That ratio bottomed over a week ago.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL%3ASLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p22778922277
Nothing goes down in straight line (except silver). I think we are due for some sort of a pop up for sure here in the short run, but we will be lower before mid-June. I am willing to bet a nickel on it. lol
As long as it’s a 1913 Liberty Head nickel, I’m in.
There is a divergence between silverjuniors and silverprice. Silverstocks are very oversold . There’s no sellers left and its time for a bounce. For an exampel, Ipt and Silvercrest metals is outperforming the silverprice today. Silvercrest up 7% and silverprice down 1,8%
You can say the same thing about gold stocks.
I have been saying for the longest time I think AXU will hit its 100 WMA, which is currently at $1.10.
I think it is going to get there and dip below that level. The June 2013 low was .90, and I think it will hit that level before bouncing.
That would be nice!
then I could buy one of the best silverjuniors ever veery cheaply, right before they restart production. Hope you’re right.
AXU’s 50 day EMA is crossing below its 200 day EMA today. That has never happened during bull markets in the miners. It obviously doesn’t mean that has to be true this time, but it is not exactly bullish for the entire sector IMO.
With the yen down as much as it is today, I would expect the Dow to close strongly positive. NATH very soon. In any event, the Dow is in a picture perfect bear flag on the daily. Expect a huge rise on the unemployment report. Similarly, expect a huge drop in gold on the unemployment report. That is free money.
I think the sell off in gold stocks is overdone. We are due for a bounce if gold holds above 1200 which I think it will. Look at GDXJ priced in gold. The last time it was like this was last Dec during tax loss selling season and then we had a large rally.
SLV down 12 days in a row. Has anyone ever seen any stock or ETF do this, ever?