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It’s going to take time for the Precious Metals

Cory
May 9, 2017

As the move down continues for gold and silver Doc and I look at what has to change to stop the downtrend. We tend to think it will take time to change course but there are a few levels to watch for support.

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Discussion
64 Comments
    May 09, 2017 09:00 AM

    Gold Has Turned Into A Trading Ping-Pong Ball
    by @Goldfinger on May 9, 2017

    https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-has-turned-into-a-trading-ping-pong-ball

    CFS
    May 09, 2017 09:01 AM

    I did not like seeing prices in Asia for PMs dropping slightly today……they had been holding up.

    CFS
    May 09, 2017 09:06 AM

    Message to Cory, Why do you think the prices of precious metals are determined by investors and not manipulating banks?

      May 09, 2017 09:34 PM

      Sorry CFS I do not fully subscribe to the manipulation narrative. I understand they can make price move in the short term but I think there is more to pullbacks of more than a day or two then simply banks driving the price down. If investors had more interested in the metals then we would have higher prices.

    May 09, 2017 09:14 AM

    Does anyone doubt that if the BoJ came out today and stated they were ending all asset purchases, commodities would explode higher? Of course they would.

    Unless the BoJ starts tightening or the Fed starts easing, no end to the commodity bear. Of course, before either of those events occur, you can bet the commodities will rally hard for at least a month prior as bank shysters load up. But its not going to happen. The drop in commodities is the only thing keeping this zombie economy from eating itself.

    May 09, 2017 09:27 AM

    Put everything you own into AMZN and GOOG. Support the new fascist business model and you too can prosper. It’s a no lose situation. Free money. At most, all you would ever be at risk for is a 5% drawdown. AMZN and GOOG are real companies fully in bed with .gov. They pay the highest wages and benefits and have the most talent and lobbying power in the world. They will continue to get bigger and bigger and bigger.

    May 09, 2017 09:43 AM

    Hi Doc, did you try any of the poison ivy remedies mentioned yesterday? Did any of them help?

      May 09, 2017 09:00 PM

      BB; not yet—I wasn’t able to get out and get any of them since I slipped on a banana peel and now have a bad back with my comprehensive poison ivy.

        May 09, 2017 09:36 PM

        Doc – don’t even think about holding a mirror or walking near or under a ladder any time soon.

        May 09, 2017 09:48 PM

        Take that banana peel you slipped on and rub the inside on your poison ivy.

          May 09, 2017 09:25 PM

          BB; I’ll have to go and get some bananas or else buy a whole tree to cover the amount of poison ivy I have.

            May 09, 2017 09:10 PM

            Doc,
            Dab the Clorox and water on the effected spots. If it’s in places too sensitive? Go swim in the ocean for a few days. I’ve had to do both.

        GH
        May 09, 2017 09:27 PM

        Home remedies for every occasion, some of them very good:

        https://www.earthclinic.com/cures/poison_ivy.html

        Earthclinic.com is a great web site.

    May 09, 2017 09:17 PM

    Seems that there is a radioactive leak in Washington State – is that going to create an anti-uranium sentinment? Obviously too early to say but…

      May 09, 2017 09:29 PM

      Bob UK – I was a Nuclear Waste facitility that made Plutonium for Nuclear Weapons in WWI, including the bombs dropped on Japan.

      Not sure how that relates to Nuclear power plants, but I’m sure there will be mad-dog activists trying to make the connection in favor or the far more inefficient Solar and Wind.

      ____________________________________________________________________

      Tunnel with nuclear waste collapses in Washington state
      Associated Press – May 9, 2017 – Nicholas K. Geranios

      “The closed PUREX plant was part of the nation’s nuclear weapons production complex. ”

      “Hanford for decades made plutonium for nuclear weapons and is now the largest depository of radioactive defense waste that must be cleaned.”

      “The site was built during World War II and made the plutonium for most of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, including the bomb dropped on Nagasaki, Japan, at the end of the war.”

      https://www.yahoo.com/news/tunnel-nuclear-waste-collapses-washington-state-164355823.html

      GH
      May 09, 2017 09:29 PM

      Hanford is supposed to be one of the worst environmental messes there is.

      I worked with biologists in the NW 20+ years ago who told me they were finding deformed animals in the Columbia River basin. Though, I’m sure there are plenty of deformities caused by other industrial/agricultural waste as well…

    May 09, 2017 09:26 PM

    Doc, could you please tell us which metal stocks you bought today? Thank you.

      May 09, 2017 09:03 PM

      Sunshine, I purchased a small position of SMA and ANF. Also bought some SAND recently when it got clobbered. Am also slowly getting into AUY and NGD recently. I like the charts of all of them and don’t think there is a lot of downside risk as there is to other stocks that are in the process of further falling—not investment advice.

        May 09, 2017 09:15 PM

        SAND does look like good value here (despite all the nervous nellies about the Mariana acquisition).

        Didn’t ANF have issues with the resource estimate and exploration results recently, that magnified the selloff? I know it is a Ross Beaty company, but the results did not impress many shareholders I talked with. Some of them felt Lumina Gold may buy them out to consolidate things, but now it doesn’t seem as likely. However, I am liking Ross’s interest in Orca Gold. I don’t own it but have considered it along with another African explorer he has – Savary Gold. I opted for Sarama instead of Savary though for the time being.

          May 09, 2017 09:39 PM

          Ex, You’re correct about the resource estimate. However, I believe the selling is overdone—yes, this was a Ross Beatty company and Rick Rule also liked it in the past—probably not as much now.

        May 09, 2017 09:52 PM

        SAND Is very good at these prices. I bought at 4.38CAD…..I’m actually liking it dropping lower and lower. Not going to complain if it continues as I can see how the company will get all the cash back to justify the market cap in its entirety and if Hot maden can be pulled off this becomes the best risk/reward adjusted stock .

      May 09, 2017 09:05 PM

      Sunshine; just one correction—I purchased ASM, not SMA—dyslexia?

        May 09, 2017 09:11 PM

        Thanks for clarifying that Doc. I looked up SMA twice and scratched my head.

        I picked up a little ASM along with about 8 other stocks yesterday and today. Lots of shares on clearance sale. After 16 days down in a row for silver, looking to play a short-duration Silver bounce.

    May 09, 2017 09:53 PM

    Time for a sucker’s rally in commodities and PMs. Short some at the 20 dma, 50 dma and heaven forbid it makes it back to to the 100 dma–time to bet the doublewide.

      May 09, 2017 09:17 PM

      I picked up a number of Silver stocks and smaller gold producers looking to play the “Relief Rally”.

        May 09, 2017 09:35 PM

        Relief Rally is a good term for what we should see. It would sure be nice to be surprised to the upside though 🙂

    May 09, 2017 09:57 PM

    Bitcoin to the moon………..then a crash landing……to $1900 then pull back…bixweir…

    May 09, 2017 09:58 PM

    As long as Manoochin in the basement of the fed, no change in metals……..

    May 09, 2017 09:38 PM

    Gold may be going down but my gold stocks are doing just fine. I really think that there was a reversal last Friday in the stocks. Looking at a chart of GDXJ or GDX versus gold, it looks a lot to me like Dec 2016.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gdxj:$gold

      May 09, 2017 09:45 PM

      That ratio chart will eventually make a lower low.

      May 09, 2017 09:59 PM

      I agree, Paul. The reverse happened when GDXJ put in its YTD high in February – a whopping 46 days before GLD’s YTD high and 12 days before GLD’s February high.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p62943725741

      May 09, 2017 09:03 PM

      Paul W – it was noticeable when the miners rose last Friday even while the metals were weak. I agree that many stocks have actually fared OK this week (some up and some flat in the face of the metals pullback). That is the kind of action we like to see in a reversal of trend. Granted there were a few Silver miners that took it on the chin, but I added to many of those to fortify the positions. As of today about about 90% deployed. If we get a relief rally I’ll scale things back a bit to raise more cash.

    May 09, 2017 09:48 PM

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AUY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96159172217&a=522866595&listNum=1

    While AUY could rally for a week or two, it’s coming back down and making a lower low. No way is this is durable low in AUY.

    May 09, 2017 09:59 PM

    I am not a fan of AUY. Peter Marrone has showed he doesn’t care about share holders. You have to be more selective. Look at DGC, ELD, TMM or SBB charts in comparison….

    http://incakolanews.blogspot.co.nz/2017/01/peter-marrones-fat-salaries-are-only.html

      May 09, 2017 09:05 PM

      Sabina Gold & Silver Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2017
      by @marketwired on May 9, 2017

      https://ceo.ca/@marketwired/sabina-gold-silver-announces-financial-results-for

      May 09, 2017 09:08 PM

      Paul, you’re correct about Peter Marrone but I just purchased some AUY and will purchase some more at these levels in the future since I figure he can’t do much more damage to the company.

        May 09, 2017 09:34 PM

        That’s a valid point Doc. Most of the damage has been done and is baked in the cake.

      May 09, 2017 09:10 PM

      It doesn’t matter if you are a fan. AUY is a bellwather for the whole sector. When it bottoms, the miners will bottom. And there is no way this is a final bottom.

        May 09, 2017 09:19 PM

        I wouldn’t use AUY as a bellweather gold stock when it has been so poorly managed. I would rather use a gold royalty company like RGLD. Personally, I use DGC as my bellweather gold stock since it historically has a huge amount of leverage to the gold price, it’s liquid and owned by the large funds and institutional investors.

          May 09, 2017 09:32 PM

          Paul W. – I’d agree that AUY isn’t the best bellweather stock for the sector.

          Why can’t traders just use GDX (a basket of Majors & Mid-tiers) or at least use AEM or NEM, which are far better “Bellweather” stocks for the Gold miners.

          May 09, 2017 09:47 PM

          I’ll continue to maintain that AUY will bottom when GDX and GDXJ bottom–probably to the day. Therefore, if AUY hasn’t found a bottom, neither have GDX or GDXJ.

    May 09, 2017 09:05 PM

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p79239008336&a=522868816&listNum=1

    No way this is the bottom in the ratio. Yes, I am paranoid about black candles, but the true bottom will be devoid of black candle for weeks, IMO. We are either coming back down tomorrow or we will come back down after a bit of a sucker’s rally, maybe to take us all the way back to test the 100 dma from underneath, but its bombs away at that point.

      May 09, 2017 09:18 PM

      There were black candles at the December low.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p30712969816

        May 09, 2017 09:37 PM

        That’s exactly why I wouldn’t put money on that low holding.

          May 09, 2017 09:42 PM

          The December low held long enough for big gains (50%+) that I wouldn’t want to miss.

            May 09, 2017 09:52 PM

            I wouldn’t bank on anything like that happening this time. GDX bounced like freshly dead cat in December. It’s stiff as a board now.

            Again, nothing happening in this sector until July/August and the monthly bollingers come in a bit more. The path of least resistance is down and the stochastics aren’t even oversold yet. At best we waffle around the 20 month MA for a few months.

            May 09, 2017 09:40 PM

            That’s emotion talking, Spanky.

    May 09, 2017 09:25 PM

    Stewart Thomson thinks this is normal and the summer doldrums are time to accumulate.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_050917.html

    The post Akha Teej period ahead of Diwali dealer stocking is the main cause of gold market “summer doldrums”. This is probably the most important period in the calendar year for professional gold stock accumulators.

      May 09, 2017 09:32 PM

      Stewart Thompson has been dead wrong for 6.5 years. He is a perma-bull. He must be living in a refrigerator box by now.

        May 09, 2017 09:52 PM

        That’s simply not true, Spanky.

        May 09, 2017 09:35 PM

        If you say he is a perma bull, then you haven’t been reading him.

      May 09, 2017 09:45 PM

      Telling people to buy puts now–when the miners are actually oversold on the weekly timeframe–that is literally gold. Where was he 9 months ago?

    May 09, 2017 09:09 PM

    Spanky, my favorite gold stock indicator is the bullish gold miner’s percentage. It is not at the extremes of last Dec so you may be right and we may go a bit lower but any time it is below 30 it is normally a good time to buy. I think Doc and Cory are right in saying the last little while to be selective and start taking positions in the good stocks.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$bpgdm

      May 09, 2017 09:08 PM

      Paul, that’s one of the many charts I watch closely.

      May 10, 2017 10:25 AM

      Yes, if you don’t have a position and you are bullish PMs, now is definitely a better time to buy than any point in the last year. That price and time thing.

    BDC
    May 09, 2017 09:37 PM

    “Gold and the Dollar: Swing Trade Bottom?”
    http://www.trendlinemagic.com/2017/05/gold-and-dollar.html

    May 09, 2017 09:34 PM

    TRUMP FIRED COMEY!

      May 09, 2017 09:05 PM

      I nailed it on the weekend show.