Jesse Felder and Steven Bergman – The Greatest Bubble Ever
This is a great conversation between our friend Jesse Felder and Steven Bregman. Jesse mentioned this podcast on last week’s weekend show noting the comments made by Steven regarding the way passive funds are managed.
This is a longer interview but there are a number of interesting topics covered.
Click here to visit Jesse’s site for more great market and economic commentary.
Here is the description from Jesse’s site…
Jim Grant calls Steven Bregman, “one of Wall Street’s most interesting thinkers.” I called upon him to share his thoughts on the massive and growing trend to passive investing which he calls, “the greatest bubble ever.” He discusses the differences between the current bubble in the financial markets and prior bubbles, the specific distortions created in the markets and the unique opportunities they present. Perhaps most importantly, Steven reveals the little-discussed structural shift in passive investing which dramatically devalues it as a strategy and how investors have been deceived by historical return figures that are not applicable to the products they own today. We also get into his personal history in the financial industry along with his evolution as an investor and more. Here are a few notes and links related to the episode:
- Horizon Kinetics website
- Steven’s presentation at the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer Fall 2016 conference
- The slides from that presentation at GrantsPub.com
- A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business Charles Munger, USC Business School, 1994
- The Warren Buffett yardstick on FRED
- Finding stocks outside the purview of the indexes: Screen for sectors and stocks with low float (high insider ownership) and lower-than-average daily trading volume using a tool like this.
- Is There a Dark Side to Exchange Traded Funds? An Information Perspective
- Horizon Kinetics’ Wealth Index
I think the loonie is on its way to fill the Feb. 28 gap in the 75.85 area before it pulls back meaningfully.
It is now at fork resistance that probably won’t last long.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p62235835305&a=529054473
I think it is finally in for a right-translated intermediate degree advance.
This goes perfectly with my bullish expectations for the miners this year.
The next significant resistance is provided by the following blue fork:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p41977912932&a=521484960
Gold miners’ bullish breakout and backtest:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48688260789&a=528708013
In other news…
Housing prices fall in Toronto at record rate
Way over priced……..
Matthew, don’t believe everything you read the prices here are not correcting that much in fact look for them to go sideways before they show direction. Two things and two things only will correct this market, one if they start raising interest rates or two if the US stock market collapses. DT
In fact Matthew, houses listed at over 4 million are seeing more and faster price increases, people with money don’t worry, they are willing to pay anything it seems, but that doesn’t mean they are smart financially. The bubble is still alive, I know I monitor it. DT
Chinese money running for cover………?
Reminds me of the Japanese buyers of the 1980’s in California Market…….
+1. Also a debt crisis which we Canadians are working very hard to achieve.
GOLDMAN STARTS covering BITCOIN…….by popular demand……….zh
Sign the big money is going to start playing………jmo
Outstanding!
Cory:
Thanks for providing this very insightful commentary. Impossible to listen to and not learn something or actually many things. One of the best posts this whole year!
Hear, hear!
I think I need to listen a few more times, myself, though. The index fund implications were very insightful indeed (as was the whole podcast, actually). I actually felt like I understood what was being said as I listened to this (although that evaporated quickly afterwards, unfortunately … hence will need to listen again for sure!).
Very much appreciated!
After working its way lower to fill the day’s gap, the Canadian dollar took off to the upside and hasn’t looked back:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=13&id=p61059429543&a=524751879