Chris Kimble: A Valuable Long Term Look At The Metals… With Charts!
Chris Kimble runs a very good straight forward charting site that can be found at KimbleChartingSolutions.com. He covers a wide range of markets but today we focus on the metals while referencing a number of different charts. We focus on the longer term charts that outline key support zones that gold and silver are both testing.
Click here to visit Chris’s website for more great charting insights.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Here are the charts we discuss in order of mention.
Gold and Silver Long Term Support Line.
Silver/Gold Ratio
Gold/USD Ratio 
Freeport-McMoran – FCX
FCX vs GDX and S&P
And another large gap to start the day, and, more importantly, the week. Such gaps will always bring selling.
People’s Daily (in Translation)
“People’s Daily” (July 17, 2017 edition)
Preventing and resolving financial risks, especially to prevent systemic financial risks, is the fundamental task of financial work and the eternal theme of financial work. Do a good job of the current financial work, we must focus on the overall situation of national security and economic and social development of the overall situation, take the initiative to prevent and resolve financial risks on a more important position, accurate assessment of the situation, comprehensive comprehensive policy to ensure that China’s financial security efficient and stable operation for economic and social Healthy development to create favorable conditions.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the central government has attached great importance to financial work, especially against financial risks, and has adopted a series of measures to strengthen financial supervision. It has taken control of the development trend and the overall financial operation. But also see that in the international and domestic economic downturn under the combined influence of factors, China’s financial development is facing a lot of risks and challenges. After the last round of expansion, the economic and trade imbalance, the internal imbalance of the financial industry, the loosening of the two, the structural problems are prominent; some of the main behavior of the market alienation, moral hazard increased significantly, And the financial regulatory system mechanism is not yet suited. In the context of the deepening development of economic globalization and the increased spillover of the international financial crisis, China’s economic cyclical, structural and institutional contradictions are superfluous and remind us to keep our minds awake and take precautions.
To prevent and resolve financial risks, need to enhance the sense of urgency. Finance is very important and risky. The financial industry chain is long, the market information asymmetry, the value realization process twists and turns, and is susceptible to external factors, in the face of economic cycle fluctuations and rapid changes in social expectations and other uncertain conditions, the interests of the temptation, participants behavior changes quickly. Moreover, the financial field risk points wide, hidden, sudden, contagious, dangerous, must be extra careful, prudent management. Both against the “black swan”, but also against “gray rhinoceros”, all kinds of risk signs can not be taken lightly, can not turn a deaf ear.
Does anyone in this forum know what a “gray rino” event might be?
(I assume it’s not John McCain dying while in hospital)
https://annual.cfainstitute.org/2017/05/22/is-your-gray-rhino-plan-in-place/
My best guess of the grey rhino is like running with the Bulls. Everyone sees it coming, some have fun running, some get trampled.
Thanks.
I guess we all know the stock market is over-valued, but are waiting for a collapse before actually trying to get out.
On the GDX daily chart, you have a confluence of the 200, 100 and 50 DMAs. Consolidation is just about over and we will probably get some wild volatility before the long term trend is set.
Intriguing discussion Cory. Great charts. Chris seems to look at some of the same things but sees different possibilities. Great guest. Thanks.
FCX is net bullish on the daily chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p93203402611&a=534848293
And the weekly chart, too:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p=W&yr=2&mn=3&dy=22&id=p06474551685&a=534848906
The bulls are getting the upper hand in the gold miners as well:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12010745167&a=510638505
4th day in a row miners are finishing at the days low, more or less. Like I’ve said, this move is being faded bigtime. Could the miners go higher? Sure. GLD still needs to fill its gap on the monthly chart.
If this was truly the bottom in the miners, you would see them rise relentlessly against gold.
Jordan said we could expect gold to move up to 1230/35.
overall trend is still down.
People might know that so miners rising relentlessly against gold may not happen yet.
Bullion banks closed huge number of short positions last week
12:52p ET Monday, July 17, 2017
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Examining the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s reports, securities lawyer and market analyst Avery Goodman writes today bullion banks continue to close huge volumes of short positions in the monetary metals that they have been carrying for years. If the bullion banks know what they’re doing, Goodman writes, this foretells a major rise in metal prices in coming months. Goodman’s analysis is headlined “Bullion Banks Closed a Huge Number of Short Positions Last Week” and it’s posted at his internet site here:
http://averybgoodman.com/myblog/2017/07/17/gold-bullion-banks-close-huge-numbers-of-short-positions/
The Biggest Opportunity Since 2015…And The Last Chance At These Gold And Silver Prices
We’ve had to wait 18 months for an opportunity as big as the one we saw late in 2015 to appear again in the Precious Metals sector. “Wait a minute”, I hear you say, “prices were generally lower back then at that low than they are now, so how can it be as big an opportunity, as leverage is reduced?” Here are the reasons, one technical, the other fundamental.
Ding! Ding! Ding! That Dang, Darn, Dam, Dingo Gold is starting to get my interest peaked. It is up today almost 20%. Maybe Bob M, is inspired with a genius for mass psychology. Maybe this will be the catalyst that starts the gold junior exploration market into a new upward phase. LOL! DT
I think it is right to worry about financial conditions but I see this move today being made by The North American people, who understand and want an alternative to the nasty conventional markets. DT
Uranium stocks are reawakening!
Yes, Uranium stocks did have a nice open to the week.
Citi bank will let you rent your house when you lose it…..lol
I think gold blows by $1307 on this trip…cot is different this time….jmo
Based on pathetic action in miners, BoJ likely to trigger top in yen on Thursday.
Miners trade tick for tick with yen. Probably more correlated with yen than gold.
Want to know the fate of the miners?
Ask the BoJ!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p32151923876&a=535000779&listNum=1
Gold climbs for 3rd straight day as dollar slips to September lows
Published: July 18, 2017
Gold Prices Rise 3rd Day as US Debt Ceiling ‘Blocks Fed Rate Hikes’, Dollar Falls
Tuesday, 7/18/2017
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-prices-071820172
Use the 55 ma in stead of the 21 ma….zh
or use the 18 day according to Ira Epstein
or the 20 day according to most trading platforms
or the 25 day according to TB
Or use the fib MAs like the 89, 144, 233
Jordan uses different weekly like 40 week and 80 week.
Some only use the 200 day/week SMA but others use the 200 day/week EMA
There is no correct answer or silver bullet.
The 50 day, 100 day, and 200 day are the most commonly used on the majority of trading platforms.
Personally, I find that certain sectors or stocks may line up better with one Moving Average over another so one should Inspect that to know what to Expect.
Charts are useless on Phyz ….jmo
365 wash and rinse cycle at the moment….lol
I find charts to be just as helpful on physical as they are on the stocks actually.
That is how I picked $1044.70 as one of my 3 downside targets for Gold back in late 2014 and throughout 2015. When Gold bottomed at $1045.40 (just .70 away from that target) in Dec of 2015, it was not a surprise. Rick Ackerman also had a target of $1044.50 a few months out in late 2015 using his technical system.
No technical system is perfect in it’s predictive approach (trend-lines, fib retracements or extension, Moving Averages, prior peaks & troughs, Elliot Wave patterns, etc…) as they are all probabilities and not carved in stone. However, TA systems are better at predicting where a bounce/turn will happen, how far a rally may extend, or where a pullback will extend to, than investors that don’t understand them may realize.
Agreed. I just find it hilarious when any technician declares that “Only XX MA” is important. That is rubbish because different companies or commodities or indexes may respond better to different MAs than another. This is the point I was trying to make above on that second post:
“Personally, I find that certain sectors or stocks may line up better with one Moving Average over another so one should Inspect that to know what to Expect.”
The 89 week MA is obviously important to GOEX as it has tested it several times but has not closed a week below it in 18 months:
The 233 and 600 week MAs clearly matter to gold more than the other MAs from a bigger picture perspective…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=8&dy=0&id=p20567987789
GLD has filled its gap on the monthly chart today. Maybe we get 1-2 more days higher, but I doubt it. The BoJ is smacking its lips.
Maybe I put too much weight on black candles, but the fact is, since the 2016 low, $hui has not left a single black candle behind on the daily chart. It always comes back down to close below the closing price of the black candle.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p26263796301&a=535002862&listNum=1
GDX has started each of the last three sessions with a gap and it would be nice to see at least two of them get filled, but I don’t see much of a reason to become bearish here beyond such a short term pullback.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p08988084483
I dunno, maybe this time is different. The problem is $XJY is about to run out of room between current price and the 200dma, and I have a feeling the BoJ meeting on Thursday will be the perfect opportunity to kill the yen (and miners and gold along with it). Maybe they can break $XJY above its 200dma briefly to sucker in more longs, but I have my doubts it will do that.
Yen action doesn’t look so ominous to me…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p76891106028&a=535011275
The way the yen has tested the 200 day MA twice, held up well both times afterward, and is already taking another swing at it, says to me there is a decent chance it will take it out on this attempt.
House out with budget….$1.1 trillion on military and homeland
A big move is coming soon…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p19719082839&a=533645229
the GSR (gold-silver ratio) has fallen back inside of its one-year-old uptrend channel and that is bullish for the sector…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3ASLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p84063830496&a=521820217
GDXJ’s 89 and 233 week MAs are now bullishly crossing at 33.05…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04654273228&a=532547538
Gold’s 89 week MA has bullishly crossed its 200 week MA and price is above both…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44769179399&a=529800598
$XJY and $HUI’ s 50 and 200 DMA are basically identical in terms of shape and position relative to price. I think the weak action in the miners is giving us a strong indication that $xjy isn’t about to break out, and if it does manage to poke through the 200dma by some miracle, it won’t last for long. The fact that the BoJ speaks on Thursday doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence.
The daily yen chart also looks fine…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p79042148150&a=523035304
But it did reach some resistance today…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33103892570&a=517987082
Ad reads ..Buy Bitcoin in your lRA….interesting
World gone to hell in a handbasket ….of stocks
Another weak day for the miners. They are being shorted/sold on every uptick.