Ouch!!! Thanks for the sobering charts.

Haha! That is because Primero is in the shitter and has been utterly destroyed over the last year. Primero is at an even larger devaluation than JAG and that was noted on their recent Corporate Presentation, so I wouldn’t use Primero as a benchmark. Let’s look at Roxgold, Wesdome or Richmont for a more fair comparison to a normally valued peer.

See Page 6 on the Jaguar Corporate Presentation:

https://www.jaguarmining.com/site/assets/files/2169/2017-06-05-jaguar.pdf

A $.05 valuation for JAG is ridiculous (not that markets haven’t been inefficient in the past). Honestly, a $.40 valuation was ridiculous.

Primero is about the best valuation out there that I’ve seen on any mid-tier producer as a result, and I do have a larger position in it than JAG for those reasons, but it is definitely an outlier stock right now.

There are about 1-2 dozen other mid-tier producers to compare both companies to that would show just how crazy cheap they are relative to their peer group producers.

Primero really didn’t rebound after the strike ended though, and they still have the ongoing tax issue to deal with. However, after the market digests a few more quarters of production/earnings a few sane analysts may recognize the disconnect and start re-rating their target prices much higher.

Same story in JAG. A solid Q3 and Q4 should ring the bell for analysts that compare it to other Gold producers doing around 100,000 ounces per year with cash costs around $685.

Ex, I think it is totally appropriate to look at the possibilities. If it can happen to Primero it can happen to Jaguar. I am not saying that such a move is likely, but JAG is not quite as cheap as some think — at least not according to all metrics. Scorpio, for example, is twice as cheap based on Price/Sales and roughly 30% cheaper based on Price/Book.

There are a lot of reasons for the valuations assigned by the market and I’m not going to assume that I know each one.

If there is a move to a new low, I think it will come with significant positive divergences.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAG.TO&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p85313107240

My JAG position would have to grow many times to reach the size of some other positions so I don’t have a problem with a new low.

Yes but Scorpio mining was absolutely destroyed in share price this last year as well. If you compare Primero, Scorpio, and Jaguar, then all of them are incredibly cheap compared to most of their producing Gold Miner peers.

Again, try comparing those companies to West Dome, or Argonaut, or Guyana gold Fields, or Richmont mines or Alacer and then things will be a little more in proper Focus. Using the lowest valuation companies as a median benchmark is not “normal” even in these depressed prices.

A close tomorrow at .28 or more would help the bullish odds…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p52647234068&a=530834525

The companies you listed aren’t Scorpio’s peers in my book. If you were to compare Scorpio to similar companies, I don’t think you’d find that 62% decline from its peak to be anything special.

The companies I used for comparables above are absolutely peers with Primero and Jaguar mining. Some of those companies are referenced as peers in the Jaguar slide presentation I posted above, and their valuations are waaay higher than where Jaguar is trading today.

You’re the one that decided to compare Jaguar to Scorpio. The other point above was that using Primero as a benchmark to compare most mid-tier gold producers down to their valuation is silly, because they’ve been crushed beyond common sense, and they are a real outlier.

My point was to compare Jaguar to the rest of the sector and it is trading at a silly valuation level here. So is Primero compared to those same peers (and that was noted above). The diiference is tha PPP had a strike that shut down their mine, and still have big tax issues. JAG doesn’t have those issues, so the low valuation makes far less sense.

The issue with Scorpio in this discussion of valuatio is they are not in the same league with those producers. In fact Scorpio may have to stop producing this month since they are waiting on permits and more exploration to move forward their production, and they also had an expensive legal issue to deal with in the recent past. I wouldn’t have used them as a comparable for the other companies, and why I suggested using the middle of the road producers for a comparison.

Re: “You’re the one that decided to compare Jaguar to Scorpio.”

Wrong Ex. My point had to do with valuations not peer comparisons. JAG and Primero are obviously “absolutely” peers of those on your list which is why I did not state that they aren’t.

I disagree about what you think is silly and leave it at that.

Fine. Different strokes for different folks. That’s what makes the world go round.

35 Million share sale off……..is overwhelming not a good sign………..in Jag……jmo

Yes OOTB. That is what was so unusual last week in JAG. There was no real reason for such a large liquidation out of the blue; except for that it timed out to be the day after Brazil announced changes to their mining code. But still, other Brazilian companies only sold off .5 – 1% on that news.

JAG also recently put out a press release that had both good and bad news in it where they are reducing their annual guidance on production from 100-110K down 5% to 95-105K, but lowering their Cash Costs in a meaningful way (better margins) and they were increasing their Cash Balances Y.O.Y. also good. I just can’t see a stock going down 50% suddenly on a reduction of 5% of output. It makes no sense.

When several different investors over at ceo.ca called and spoke to both Investor Relations, and one called the CEO personally, the story was consistent that they had a large seller (a fund) exiting their position, and it was a messy exit.

This is why the company put out their “No Material Change” press release, as there was no fundamental reason for the stock to have been chopped in half from the low $.40s to the low $.20s.

___________________________________________________________________________

Jaguar Mining Confirms No Material Change
July 26, 2017 /CNW/

“Jaguar Mining Inc. (TSX:JAG) at the request of IIROC, wishes to confirm that its management is not aware of any corporate development, news or undisclosed material change to the Company or its operations that would account for the recent volatility in the stock market activity. ”

http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/jaguar-mining-confirms-no-material-change-636798333.html

EX
Those are some valid points……..I would not argue with any of your thoughts…..
Volume of that size always makes me nervous …..
Thanks for the thoughts and reply.

Bottom line on JAG is that they have 3 producing mines in 2 different mining complexes at present, another mine & mill on care and maintenance, a huge development project, and an exploration project and they are currently producing around 100,000 ounces of Gold per year.

Jaguar was a previous well-followed Mid-Tier Producer in the last cycle, and actually the first Mining stock I ever bought back in 2010. I’ve been following them a long time, and they have a better set up currently than they’ve had in years, and still have all the exact same assets, and a much tighter share structure now than they did when they were trading 10-20 times higher than present.

Their wart is that the low metals prices caused their shares to tank in 2012-2014 because back then their costs were far too high, and they went into credit protection. When they emerged from credit protection, restructured their balance sheet, and kept all their assets, I started to follow them again, and started nibbling in late 2014 early 2015 a little. In late December I got more serious, and in early Jan/Feb loaded up. The stock rallied brilliantly last year in 2016 so I trimmed a big portion back into a Free Ride position.

Personally, I’ve been adding back in big way on this downturn, because I was waiting for the stock to go from the low $.40s to over a $1 this year, and now it is down in the low $.20s after that large seller exited last week. This valuation is ridiculous, and I believe it is a fantastic value here as their operations overall are very solid and improving for the second half of 2017. Their lowered guidance was due to a few snags that have been resolved from the earlier part of the year.

Unless there is something far more heinous going on here, that the company itself is unaware of, then this stock needs a major re-rating higher. My thesis is that after the Q3 and Q4 numbers are in that investors may realize, damn….. this stock is cheap.

EX……good point……..

Just an added note…….I think anyone buying , at these levels of 20cents, should be real happy this time next year…………..jmo

🙂 I agree OOTB.

Now we’ll see if Mr. Market agrees. By next year at this time I truly expect this to be trading over $1.

Normally there is visible blank space between the close and next day open on the candles (not the wicks), so one can see the “gap” on the chart, but yes I see what you mean on the HLC bars, but wouldn’t have initially considered that a gap.

Thanks for the heads up.

Ex, the gaps I’ve pointed out are really as normal as they come.

They may be more noticeable on a lessor chart, but a 1.4% gap isn’t that big and didn’t create the visible gulf of empty space one normally associates with a big gap up or down.

However if the dollar rises and pressures the metals & miners, it may be a reasonable place to look for a retracement. Thanks for sharing with us, as it wasn’t as obvious as other gaps.

A 1.4% gap is quite large. What you’re not getting is that the “visible gulf of empty space” that you like doesn’t happen nearly as easily when the previous close happens near the low of a big down day. For example, if GDXJ were to open a session at 30 and close it at 25 and open the next session at 30, there’d be a massive 20% gap that would still not give you one cent of the empty space that you’re looking for.

I understand that there was a gap, but still don’t consider a 1.4% gap to be as noticeable or critical to be filled as a sudden 10-20% gap would be.

In addition, I get what you are saying about the lack of empty space if the succeeding day candle opened 20% higher than the previous close, but at the same level as the previous open, and yet it would still be a gap. Those happen all the quite often, but just aren’t usually discussed as “Gaps that must be filled”. It is the sudden extreme gaps that leave the empty space on the chart that are typically mentioned as a Gap that must be filled.

For example, you don’t get a pattern like an “Island reversal” unless it is separated from the other sections of the chart by that empty space. Again, I understand that a gap up or down, doesn’t necessitate the “blank space” due to how the prior days candle may have formed, but when I think of Gaps the look more like the graphics and embedded charts in this article:

https://stockcharts.com/articles/mailbag/2015/02/what-is-an-island-reversal-cmg-rtn.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIs7uNjNq31QIVBQhpCh2NXQpAEAAYASAAEgI0u_D_BwE

Eric Holter should be prosecuted…..

Not for a long time…….the Fed is corrupt as hell, and have their finger on the price and will keep the price low, so the stock market feel good sheeple are fleeced to the very end……a good listen to would be Craig Paul Roberts at usawatchdog.com…..JMO

When TRUMP comes out with the words…..TIME TO END THE FED…..then you will know gold will be free to trade…….again……JMO