Further comments on the US dollar and wage growth
With the dollar moving up today Doc and I take another look at the weekly chart to assess if this is the start of a dollar run. Overall however we are still skeptical that the dollar can make it back to 100+ on the dollar index. We also look at other markets that are impacted by a dollar bounce.
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Hey CFS – my only potential Indium miner (Adex Mining) went down long ago…. Most of the handful of old Indium stocks went down for the count years ago.
The only one I’m even aware of any more is Crusader resources, but they’re just hovering on life support.
There are a few Zinc companies that occasionally will produce a little Indium but I don’t think its a material worth pursuing for it’s own sake in most cases.
Thanks. The vital component that permits touchscreen technology is the transparent conductor Indium tin oxide. While it is not used in large quantities, and I believe China has a strategic stockpile equivalent to ten years supply, if we get into trade wars with China and it holds back supply like it did with rare earths, the West has a problem.
It’s an interesting strategic material. That’s interesting about the touchscreen tech using Indium/Tin oxide.
If you want Tin exposure I’d throw out Metals X for further inspection:
It’s the indium that is vital.
Mind control………..MTF…………..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-13/1-dead-5-injured-spokane-high-school-shooting
, 2017 at 7:31 pm,
Markedtofuture says:
Jerry, here is a podcast on Voice-To-Skull Technology & Gang Stalking being done in Big Al’s neck of the woods. Around the 25 min mark, this security specialist whistleblower, claims the entire city of Seattle, Washington is being used as a social experiment.
55 min mark, he calls out the social workers that are involved in the program to speak out.
Electronic Harassment & Organized Stalking Insider Bryan Kofron
Bryan Kofron is an insider to the electronic harassment & organized stalking programs.
http://www.declassifieddocuments.com/2017/08/security-industry-specialist-bryan-kofron-aka-justin-carter.html
DYODD…
Patent For Microwave Voice-To-Skull Technology
United States Patent 4,877,027 Brunkan October 31, 1989
Hearing System
Abstract
Sound is induced in the head of a person by radiating the head with microwaves in the range of 100 megahertz to 10,000 megahertz that are modulated with a particular waveform. The waveform consists of frequency modulated bursts. Each burst is made up of ten to twenty uniformly spaced pulses grouped tightly together. The burst width is between 500 nanoseconds and 100 microseconds. The pulse width is in the range of 10 nanoseconds to 1 microsecond. The bursts are frequency modulated by the audio input to create the sensation of hearing in the person whose head is irradiated.
Inventors: Brunkan; Wayne B. (P.O. Box 2411, Goleta, CA 93118) Appl. No.: 202679 Filed: June 6, 1988
BTW…………where is BIG OWL
He mostly just does the KER politics segments now.
On Rick’s target of 120 for the USD, we’re talking apples vs oranges here with he and Doc. Rick gave no timeline and Doc seems to be talking about the next month or so. What am I missing?
Toss it in with his call for $880 gold……..
Doc, Gold keeps falling but NSRPF keeps going up. What price are you hoping to pay for it?
Trader Vic says the dollar may fall to .60 and Rick says it will rise to 1.20.
I predict it will go somewhere in between…
.60 makes more sense than 1.20
+1
I think it would settle in the 80’s for the longer term and not below 78 or 80.
That makes sense to me as well Paul L.
The P&F chart using a three box reversal gives a price objective of 79 after a double bottom breakdown in July but, using a 5 box reversal, the P.O. is 64.33 following a bull trap at the end of June.
I think if we polled bearish professionals, very few would have a new all-time low as their target — and that is exactly what we should expect if it is going to go there.
Just like most bull markets, bear markets routinely overshoot the expectations of almost all observers. Remember all the people calling the Dow a bubble at 13,000 four years ago while even most bulls didn’t expect anything close to what has happened since?
When I look at that monthly chart, I see the perfect setup for a new all-time low.
That violent counter-trend move and breakout did an awful lot to get a lot of people confidently long/bullish despite the fact that the dollar had become more overbought than at any other time in the last 30 years. Such extremely lopsided bullishness is just what the bears needed.
In addition, the action following the 2015 breakout has been bearish. The down-trending resistance-turned-support was tested several times until the monthly RSI(14) was “reset” to about 50 but the following move to a new high came with significant bearish divergences (which I pointed out at the top).
I’m not going to lay out the fundamental case for a move into the 60s but it is a good one.
Matthew – you bring up an excellent point here:
“Just like most bull markets, bear markets routinely overshoot the expectations of almost all observers.” — Matthew
I’ll keep and open mind then that if the dollar really starts to drop that it could turn into a waterfall decline from the recent highs down to new lower lows.
Very interesting to consider what would have happen if the greenback took a nose-dive.
It wouldn’t surprise me if it takes until 2023-24 to bottom — unless the central planners have other ideas.
I’d be surprised if the dollar doesn’t go lower than it did in 2008/9 at ~71, a few years out. But yes, assuming a ~15 year cycle, the last two took about 7 years to reach their low; this time that would put the low, like Matthew says, around 2023/4. Which seems like a reasonable time frame for the bull market in precious metals and commodities to unfold as well.
If one just took a line from the 1992 low, through the 2008 low, that would project to roughly a 64 low in 2023/4, corresponding to the five box reversal P&F target.
I’ve never understood Rick’s deflation view. I assume the deflation he is looking for is actually already well underway, but in real money (gold), not greenbacks.
That’s right, the deflation has been obvious if you price things in real money. Yet, not one deflationist in a million can figure it out.
The CRB dropped 85% versus gold since 2001 (gold went up 5-fold+ versus the CRB)…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=p25797645293&a=370277015
Priced in the USDX, gold has already exceeded last year’s high. A rest here is not a bad thing.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24USD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04178453345&a=544441171
The CRB looks good compared to gold on the daily chart as well…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=22&id=p21601086911&a=523710623
Very interesting chart of $GOLD:$USDX !
China Prepares Sale of $2 Billion in U.S.-Dollar Bonds
By Manju Dalal and Carolyn Cui Published September 13, 2017
“China is laying the groundwork for its first sale of U.S.-dollar sovereign bonds in more than a decade, a move toward expanding its ties with global investors as its economy improves.”
“The government is preparing to sell $2 billion in bonds this month, and investment banks are pitching for a role in the deal, according to bankers in Hong Kong.”
Cobalt, the technology enabling metal
Global Lithium-Ion Battery Market Will Reach USD 67.70 billion by 2022: Zion Market ResearchAccording to the report, global lithium-ion battery market was valued at around USD 31.17 billion in 2016…
GlobeNewswire
Sep. 13, 2017,
China, Cambodia agree to Nuclear Energy cooperation
13 September 2017
NRA conditionally approves TEPCO
Jiji Press – September 13, 2017
“The Nuclear Regulation Authority approved on Wednesday Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. as a nuclear power plant operator, on condition the industry minister guarantees that TEPCO will implement enhanced safety measures.”
“As a result, TEPCO is expected to pass NRA screenings for restarting the No. 6 and No. 7 reactors at its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant in Niigata Prefecture.”
Full-Spectrum Analysis Challenges ‘Green’ Energy
James Taylor, Forbes – Jun 14, 2016
“State-specific renewable power mandates typically require more wind and solar power production at the expense of coal, natural gas, hydro, and nuclear power. This begs the question: Are wind and solar power environmentally preferable to competing power sources, and if so, then by how much?”
“Renewable power mandates, often referred to as renewable portfolio standards, clearly are misnamed. If the sole or primary purpose of the mandates were to favor renewability, the mandates would include hydropower, which is generated by river flow from renewable rainfall. Moreover, with centuries of coal, natural gas, and uranium reserves available to power our economy, there is little need to discourage and punish major “non-renewable” power sources.”
Kyushu Electric eyes restarting Genkai Nuclear reactors next year
Sept 12th, 2017
Electric Cars Reach a Tipping Point
By David Fickling Sept 10, 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-09-11/electric-cars-reach-a-tipping-point
A bounce to 95 to 97 is very possible now.
I’m thinking ~95, as I don’t expect it to exceed the 200 day exponential moving average in the chart I posted above.
The Nickel Market: Investing Ahead of the Crowd – Part 1
by @Leni Brian Leni P.Eng Founder – Junior Stock Review – September 11, 2017
https://ceo.ca/@leni/the-nickel-market-investing-ahead-of-the-crowd-part-1
Boxed in: Life inside the ‘coffin cubicles’ of Hong Kong – in pictures
Photographer Benny Lam has documented the suffocating living conditions in Hong Kong’s subdivided flats, recording the lives of these hidden communities
Benny Lam – Wednesday 7 June 2017
THis negates the thought of higher incomes……..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-14/despite-hope-higher-incomes-real-wage-growth-plunges-august
Doc, or Excelsior do you have any suggestions for Indium miners?
My previous holdings, South American and Argentex appear to have gone belly up.