The Metals Markets Are Boring – But Is That A Bad Thing?
Founder of The Daily Gold Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me to discuss the overall boring metals market. We look at the longer term charts and focus on the recent monthly closes. With the metals very much in the middle part of the range in 2016 it might take some time for the next big move to happen. We also look at the USD rebound and assess how long that can run.
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Would love t hear Jordan with more hope but at least he isn’t where Spanky is! 🙂
BOring for a long time………..
GREAT!!!!! time to buy.
At the risk of being called a to the moon guy, I think the precious metals miners charts are pretty exciting here. GDXJ just put in a daily cycle low. One of these DCLs will be the launching pad for a major move.
What I see in this daily chart is price action that has been compressing since the July 2016 high, and is now nearing an upside breakout of this ~15 month wedge.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p76601166388&a=546153739
A nearly 15% run to the black-two-dotted long-term down-trend line from 2011 seems like a fair possibility for GDXJ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&st=2016-01-23&en=today&id=p87435898613&a=535626512
GDXJ weekly, on the verge of breaking up out of a 6+ year pitchfork:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=8&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95672611389&a=538983753
A ~50% run to test the 2016 high and the middle tine of the green pitchfork is a real possibility.
The guy at likesmoneycycletrading sounds a cautionary note because of expected strength in the US dollar–it is in its timing band for a yearly low and has formed a swing low.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2017/10/03/a-miner-low/
correction: “has formed a MONTHLY swing low.”
It has, but far from all swing lows signal a reversal. Even if it is a reversal, some fluctuation up and down in the turn is not unlikely. And finally, if we are coming down from the peak of a ~15-year cycle, and it descends like it did in 1985 and 2001/2, a new yearly cycle could roll over quickly in an extreme left-translated failed cycle.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p97768170495&a=511999410
I’m not that sanguine on the US dollar. In the short term, I think it’s got a trip down into a DCL. Let’s see how that goes.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=4&dy=0&id=p37430712466&a=453017036
Weekly, the US dollar is up against key fibonacci fan and pitchfork resistance, with the 20 week simple moving average bearing down on it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p67840495700&a=499882067
GH
These are simply GREAT charts (that I think Matthew and EX would agree with?)
A pleasure to view them an contemplate the future …
Brian
Thanks, Brian
+1 Brian.
Yes, I generally agree with most of what GH posts technically or philosophically. 🙂
Thanks for the great charts GH.
My pleasure, Ex.
When the metals are just muddling along, that is boring but ok. When they move drastically one way or another (lately that is predominantly down) its not so boring but being unstable its generally not a good thing.
So either lose interest in the stable boring game or remain interested from the unstable moves. Bit like being stuck between a rock and a hard place.
The waiting game sucks but it looks a good place to be. The cap is tightly screwed on.
Need a laugh??
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-04/isnt-joke-irs-just-hired-equifax-safeguard-taxpayer-data