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Breaking Down The Many Factors At Play In Oil

Cory
October 11, 2017

Jeffery Small, President of Arbor Financial joins me today to focus on the oil market. We look at the supply and demand metrics which continue to show an over supplied sector. We also touch on the Saudi Armaco IPO and deal between China and Saudi Arabia to move away from the US dollar when buying oil. This is a huge story that we still do not have solid details on.

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Oil
Discussion
19 Comments
    Oct 11, 2017 11:51 AM

    What is going on with Theralase and Nature lately? We haven’t heard much about the efficacy of what they are doing of late.

      Oct 11, 2017 11:17 PM

      Hey Pardu, I have reached out to Natcore and will be meeting with them when in New Orleans at the end of the month. Hopefully will have some positive news to report.

      As for Theralase we do not cover the Company anymore. I continue to follow the news and it seems things are moving along. If you want a contact for Theralase I would be happy to provide that for you.

    Oct 11, 2017 11:07 AM

    One thing people should understand about fracking is the flow rates fall of dramatically after about one year.
    As the price of WTI dropped from $110 to about $45,I was expecting a cutback in the crude production to drive prices higher.
    I can only speak for the Eagle Ford Shale,the company I hauled crude for was actually calling for more production.
    Saudi Arabia and Exxon are as we speak building a new chemical plant in Portland Texas.
    As the families of the victims of 9/11 are doing a class action suit against the Saudi’s,we are letting them have free run in the American Economy.
    The same goes for Communist China as they just built a multi billion dollar pipe plant in Portland Texas also.
    Everything is just smoke and mirrors.

      Oct 11, 2017 11:40 AM

      I will add that when the when the Pipe plant was being built,one of the contractors became insolvent and during Thanksgiving about 800 employees were not paid.
      What a way to start the Holidays.

    Oct 11, 2017 11:16 AM

    Off topic: SLV is at 50/200 day MA resistance, sitting on volume-based support and looks better than gold…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=22&id=p94480969147&a=549735355

        Oct 11, 2017 11:56 AM

        The silver miners are about to get bent over, yet again. Silver likely headed to a lower low than July too. There is no upside here given the CoTs. Sentiment needs to be cleansed yet again, which for this sector means longs jumping out of buildings.

          Oct 11, 2017 11:23 AM

          Silver Market Update
          Clive Maund – published Sunday, October 08, 2017

          “There was more evidence of a turn in silver than gold on Friday, when a more obvious reversal candle appeared on its chart. On the 6-month chart we can see that a long-tailed candle occurred that approximates to a bull hammer where the price closed not far off the day’s highs on the biggest volume for over a month. After its recent reaction this certainly looks like a reversal, especially as the downtrend channel has been converging. The earlier overbought condition has more than fully unwound and the price has dropped back into a zone of support.”

          “Like gold, silver is marking out a giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern, but in silver’s case it is downsloping as we can see on its 8-year chart below, which reflects the fact that silver tends to underperform gold at the end of sector bearmarkets and during the early stages of sector bullmarkets. Prolonged underperformance by silver is therefore a sign of a bottom. This chart really does show how unloved silver is right now, but although the price has drifted slightly lower over the past several years, volume indicators have improved, especially this year, a positive sign. A break above the neckline of the pattern, the black line, will be a positive development, and more so a break above the band of resistance approaching the 2016 highs. Once it gets above this it will have to contend with a quite strong zone of resistance roughly between $26 and $28. Silver is amongst the most unloved of all metals, a situation that is not expected to continue…”

          “Extreme lows in the silver / gold ratio are reliable indicators of either a sector bottom or they can occur during the early stages of a sector bullmarket, as can be seen on the long-term silver over gold chart shown below, which goes back to late 1997. When a low in this ratio occurred in 2003, the sector was already in a bullmarket, but as we can see, it had much further to run. The next major low followed the 2008 market crash. More recently the ratio plumbed very low levels again at the end of 2014 and early in 2016, which marked the sector bottom after the brutal bearmarket from the 2011 highs. Right now it is only a whisker above these lows, which is a strong sign that another bullmarket is just around the corner.”

          https://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=67&date=2017-10-08

            Oct 11, 2017 11:28 AM

            It’s Time To Short the Nasdaq and Buy Silver Says This Expert

            Michael Belkin – The Belkin Report – Oct 06, 2017

            http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Mines–Money—Toronto/1733/2017-10-06/Its-Time-To-Short-the-Nasdaq-and-Buy-Silver-Says-This-Expert

            Oct 11, 2017 11:32 AM

            Silver Price Set To Surge
            October 9 – Stephen Leeb:

            “Silver is often referred to as gold’s ‘sister’ metal. And if they were real sisters, you could imagine that silver might well resent the greater attention invariably lavished on its lustrous sibling.”

            “I’ve been making the case as strenuously as I can that gold is on the threshold of a great bull market that will transcend anything seen in the past, and I’ve urged all investors to make sure they have a big stake in it. But here I want to give silver its due as well, for I have long believed that as gold rises, silver – which for many investors might be the more affordable metal to acquire – will be enjoying a big bull move of its own…”

            Stephen Leeb continues: “The factors accounting for silver’s surge, though, will diverge from those propelling gold. Gold’s rise will reflect its role as a monetary metal that will underpin international trade, starting in the East, and help ration increasingly scarce commodities. Silver, too, is a monetary metal and will always follow gold to some extent, but that is only one major reason for its forthcoming brilliant rise. Equally significant, if not more, will be sharply growing demand for silver because of its critical industrial uses, which will be burgeoning in coming years.”

            https://kingworldnews.com/one-of-the-greats-just-exposed-why-the-price-of-silver-will-surge-above-100-in-27-months/

            Oct 11, 2017 11:33 AM

            Billionaire Eric Sprott On Skyrocketing Silver

            “Eric Sprott is a multi-billionaire investor and industry leader who has become legendary for his ability to create enormous wealth for himself and those who follow him. In this remarkable interview Sprott discusses skyrocketing silver as well as his top silver pick and much more.”

            https://kingworldnews.com/billionaire-eric-sprott-on-skyrocketing-silver/

          Oct 11, 2017 11:23 AM

          Funny stuff, Spanky!

    Oct 11, 2017 11:04 AM

    Look at the beautiful symmetry of this POS. Shooting fish in a barrel.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AUY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p60519394302&a=549746166&listNum=1

      GH
      Oct 11, 2017 11:01 PM

      That’s actually a beautiful candle, here at the close, Spanky 🙂

      It’ll soon be breaking above the 200 day moving average.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TTpL4S9RCc

        Oct 11, 2017 11:03 PM

        The last time it pierced the lower BB (July) it turned up and gained 40%+.

        Oct 11, 2017 11:46 PM

        Great video GH!

    Oct 11, 2017 11:25 AM

    Gold, Zinc explorers spearhead reversal of five-year global exploration downturn

    By: Samantha Herbst – 10th October 2017

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/gold-zinc-explorers-spearhead-reversal-of-five-year-global-exploration-downturn-2017-10-10

    Oct 11, 2017 11:58 PM

    A ‘bright spot’ in the depths of the Uranium slump
    BNN Video – October 11, 2017

    David Cates – CEO o Uranium Participation Corp & Denison Mines Corp (DNN) (DML)

    “It was looking for $20 million but ended up with double that amount. David Cates, President & CEO, Uranium Participation Corp., says the company’s bought deal equity offering is a “bright spot” in a tough market that has the price of uranium depressed. Cates says the uranium market is over-supplied by about 10 million pounds a year and it’s time for the miners to seriously consider closing some operations.”

    http://www.bnn.ca/video/a-bright-spot-in-the-depths-of-the-uranium-slump~1229608