Record Short Positions In the VIX
Chris Temple joins me today to discuss the new record highs we are seeing in net spec short positions. We point out some of the worrisome signs that investors can be concerned with but the fact remains that investors are not betting on any of them.
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$vix is headed to low single digits over time, on it’s way to 0 eventually. The Fed has your back.
Don’t worry, in the PM sector, it’s always darkest before the slaughter. Waterfall incoming.
Do you seriously believe a waterfall decline is in store in the PM sector?
Why would the metals suddenly fall out of bed? I understand those like Doc or Gary S that thinks the metals will pull back a bit more in October to provide the fuel for the next leg higher, but not this overly bearish “slaughter” that you are calling for.
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Spanky – check out this video from Gary Savage and see what you think of his technical analysis where he feels we’re in a 3rd wave higher and will likely take out the highs of 2016 on this move up. If you disagree technically, I’d be interested in knowing why. (not fed has your back nonsense, but from a technical perspective).
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Gold Leaps Above $1300
Gary Wagner – October 13, 2017 #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #VIDEO
Correction: I meant Gary Wagner (but had mentioned Gary S. previously)
Mr Wagners Fib retracements, and Fib extensions make a great deal of sense.
Also, the Wave 3 will be the same length or greater than Wave 1 so getting up near $1400 in Gold seems quite reasonable from these levels to me.
He’ll be stopped out of his long trade this week. He was a dime away from being stopped out today.
I realize you disagree with the premise that we are in the next leg higher, and that we have a chance of taking out the 2016 high from last year in Gold, but what about his analysis would you take issue with specifically?
What TA has you convinced in this waterfall decline you are so confident in?
By waterfall, I may have stepped a bit too far. We will at least get a spike down below all the major weekly MAs for GDX before the miners reverse. The banksters always shake the tree. Not only that, they uproot it and send it through the wood chipper before planting another seedling.
First, the 100 WMA will get tagged. Then, ultimately, the 200 WMA will get tagged and probably we will see a 5-10% spike below that MA just because they can. At that point GDX bounces for a month and then it will be back down as the 200 WMA gets tested again and we make a lower low, maybe at $18 some time in December before the next rate hike.
Spanky – Thanks for unpacking what you are looking at technically in regard to the moving averages for GDX. Yeah, that doesn’t sound like a waterfall, but I wanted to better understand the “why?” behind your bearish thesis.
We’ll see how it goes.
PORTO RICO is a mess .Trumpet mouth does not know what to do They should send at least one carrieer to San Juan or Ponce to remove 10k people at a time. its only 48 hour crusie speed to miami from there AT least 500k need to relocate to mainland [ prefer georgia or alabama ] . No Jobs left in PR housing devastated . wake up TRUMPT mouth . S
Someone said something like ” your choice is to look like a fool before the event or after the event”, talking of a market crash. Chris is joining the early crowd like McNabb at Vanguard, Fleckenstein, Faber, John Hussman and may others who will eventually be correct; just not now! In the meantime, the madness of crowds is in charge and the crowd slowly grows until sentiment changes. Hell, Avi has said it may correct 15% in ’18 but could go on for 4-5 more years. Guess it all depends on those brilliant central bankers………..who knows?
John Mauldin on VIX: http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=frontline
Good charts.
The Austrian election this last weekend and the poles for the coming Czech election must be scaring the Brussels bureaucracy. However, I believe the US bond market is where we will see the first breakdown in the US.