Updates On Oil, USD, and Metals
The Gold and Oil Guy, Chris Vermeulen joins me today to recap some of the markets we cover most closely. Chris outlines an upside and downside scenario for oil. As for the US dollar we relate how moves here could impact the metals which have been performing nicely.
Click here to visit Chris’s website.
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Entire congress needs to go………….Too much govt……period……
The entire group can not get anything done…….except stuff their pockets with candy
I AGREE on this also !!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dobKjYM9DRI
Most of those in power are GUILTY.
We need a revolution or perhaps for people simply to refuse to pay taxes anymore until the swamp is drained.
Comey, Mueller, Hilly, Billy, Lynch, Holter, All Fed directors…….need to be in JAIL….
CFTC…………stinks………..
Don’t forget the Bushes.
All living Presidents……..need to be in Jail……, except maybe Carter, and I will have to think on that one………
http://silverstealers.net/………….Pilgrim society…..
This is a good read………
FBI informant blocked from telling Congress about Russia nuclear corruption case, lawyer says
An American businessman who worked for years undercover as an FBI confidential witness was blocked by the Obama Justice Department from telling Congress about conversations and transactions he witnessed related to the Russian nuclear industry’s efforts to win favor with Bill and Hillary Clinton and influence Obama administration decisions, his lawyer tells The Hill.
Thanks……..interesting info on the blocking of the fbi agent………
Yes Sir !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jimmy Carter was no Saint either.
It’s just the price you have to pay to stay alive.
Jimmy Carter to me seems to be a very honourable man
I absolutely AGREE !!!!!!!!!!
Metals stink again today………..
Andy Hoffmans new adventure………….gold dull as hell and cryptos are on fire…. 🙂
$indu:$gold monthly chart has acres to run to the upside now. The ratio is on its way to 21ish, which would be the 38% retrace of the bear market in the ratio.
The next 5-6 months are going to be excruciating to anyone shunning the US market in favor of gold and miners. The ratio is above all the monthly moving averages now, with the 50 and 100 month MAs curving sharply upward. Gold may not be dead, but it is going to seem that way to anyone who holds it instead of US stocks. The Fed’s lesson to you all…
Metals ……….stink………like I said…….going no where …..
until we hit $1400 gold and $25 silver……..sleepy time …….dulls ville……
Gold is dead. It may go up, but its bull market vs stocks is dead.
6 years of stocks rallying vertically vs gold is not a bear market or countertrend rally. It’s a new bull for equities in real terms.
It certainly is DEAD right NOW…………..
There is no change with the CFTC………therefore , gold is deader than dead……..
Articles from the usuals, silverdoc,zerohedge and sgt over the last week or so have been saying a few thousand tons on gold has been found on various ships from Ireland and Britain that were sunk during the world wars.
I guess the deals have to get made for the splits between the salvage companies and countries of origin.
Once its up tho,its sounds like it should supply the market for some time, another year or two?
The tonnage of gold, vs…..the tonnage of fiat……..the reset could and should be at least $2500 plus……..the money changes are still in control and are not going to let their little game go anytime soon…….
My gosh…….we have TRILLIONS of FIAT UNBACKED PAPER>….Fair Value is not $1300 gold.
GOTS………………………..
Weiner man……….’http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-17/harvey-weinstein-officially-resigns-weinstein-co-board
Got thrown under the bus………Hilly and Billy…….said he needs to cover their trail….
Another weiner on the loose……….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-17/suspended-amazon-studio-exec-resigns-over-sexual-harassment-allegations
TIME TO GET MUELLER ON THE CARPET………………….
https://www.sgtreport.com/articles/2017/10/17/calls-for-investigation-of-muellers-crimes-escalate
LYNCH…………..NExt
Then OBAMA………..fake birther…………
Agreed Jerry, gold and silver have significant work to do before one can get excited… Yawn!
To put into perspective, after the cascading waterfall rout completed in 2013 that signalled the PMs bear in earnest, gold was around $1160 and silver $18.50. Relative to these figures gold looks ok at the moment but silver is nearly 10% below the $18.50 mark. With so much work ahead of it still, one can be forgiven for thinking that gold and silver especially, are not out of the woods.
Furthermore, this repeated pattern of interest rate rise talks occuring around the end of each year is taking the steam out of the PMs as they attempt to make ground during their seasonally strong period. It seems to be one step forward, two steps back progress and thus the cap on the gold and silver markets remains tightly secured.
Getting off the fence here: 2018 shapes as a big year for PMs (particularly gold and silver). I know the chart patterns indicate that current action still revealing a gradual rise being in place from the Dec 2015 lows. However, continued range bound back and forth bouncing may only be delaying that inevitable decline, washout, raid, smackdown, sell-off etc etc that could so easily un-do all the steady work witnessed over the last 2 years.
A fresh catalyst needs to propel gold north of $1400 and silver $21. Then and only then can they afford a pause or pull-back before working towards their previous bull market support (now resistance) figures of $1500 and $26. Otherwise its just a wash, rinse and repeat cycle that remains as the status quo.
Good thoughts Ozibatla and you are right that a new catalyst is needed. I am still bullish on gold but will confess that I personally expected a bit more seasonal strength in October and a challenge of 2016’s high by year end.
At this point it is looking like Gold and Silver have more work to do, but I can’t help pondering what we discussed back in August — That if the US Dollar can not mount an impressive reversal higher, and instead just pauses here and rolls over, then that might be the very “catalyst” that the metals and commodities need. Cory mentioned in the interview above that the Dollar really hasn’t shown any meaningful strength after starting to rebound.
If the Dollar rally fizzles from here and breaks back down below 91-92, then it could be a surprise that catches most traders off-sides.
In reading comments on multiple blogs, articles, news outlets, etc…. it seems most investors are overly content to bet on the stock market (hence the low VIX and lack of hedging). In addition, it is possible that cryptons are stealing attention from diversification out of fiat money, and may have stolen the money movements that may have traditionally flown into precious metals when the Dollar was struggling earlier in the year. At least it is something to consider.
Almost across the board, most investors continue to shun the metals & miners. We all know what happens when everyone gets on the same side of the boat and is convinced they have things figured out though 😉
My main interest is in the extractive companies and mining stocks and I’m looking for companies that are still going to survive in the current price environment, but will thrive with just a small percentage increase in the pricing. I’m still positioned in companies that will have good leverage to rising metals prices if Gold got up past the 2016 high of $1377.50 heading towards $1400 and if Silver got up into the $19-$21 zone again. (as you mentioned).
It is possible that that Doc & Gary S. & spanky are correct that we have months of sideways to down action in the metals, but for now, I’m still holding for a surge into the end of 2017 and moving into Q1 2018. (it’s also possible that I’m a big ole’ fool though). My thesis remains that we started a new bull market in Jan 2016 in the miners and it was more than just a “suckers rally”. Too many key moving averages and prior peaks/troughs were taken out for me to rationalize that we are still in a continuation of the Bear market, and after the consolidation we had over the last year, the sentiment is pretty washed out. It seems like the perfect contrarian environment for the PMs to surprise everyone and move higher when everyone is convinced that they are going to head lower.
As for the Copper, Zinc, Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel/PGM, and some of the renewal of interest in Specialty Metals……. I’m just in accumulation mode in the related miners in those sectors.
Ever Upward!
Cheers Excelsior. Good thoughts from you also. To a degree Im in the same camp regarding the contrarian environment and how gold and silver often thrive in those conditions. It just seems theres too many headwinds at the moment.
Regarding the US dollar, it would need to rollover significantly in order to move gold and silver upwards convincingly. I mean at one stage it fell into the 90 region and yet gold just could not hold that 1360 region. Silvers beat up worse I feel. If the dollar were to decline that could be the catalyst weve mentioned but that would imply a fall into the 80s, specifically 88 at least.
Ive long maintained that Bitcoin and other cryptos are attracting safe haven money away from the metals and Im not surprised. 2017 goes down as the year where everyone sat up and took notice of the various cryptocurrencies. With bitcoin nearing $6,000 and Ethereum at one stage hitting $500, their returns have just been incredible. Whether they sustain it or not I dont know but their moves have been impressive to say the least.
Only being involved in the physical component of the PMs, I remain frustrated but realistic as to their future direction. This teasing action they have treated us to over the last 2 years could have further to play out yet. Im beginning to suspect that perhaps a calamitous smash in the world markets may be one of the few options left. That in itself leaves one in a bind as margin calls and selloffs could well smash gold and silver to new lows. Who knows. I for one remain suspect as to whether weve entered a new PM bull at this stage. Once bitten, twice shy I suppose.
Thanks for those further thoughts Ozibatla. I agree with you that the move in Gold/Silver was more muted in response to the Dollar at 90, 91, 92 and that a move down to 88 would likely be needed to spook the markets and get money moving into the PMs.
Yes, people underestimated the amount of money flows into cryptos (me included), but it is hard to ignore the phenomenon that played out over the last few years, and that some money got diverted into various alt coins that may have previously found it’s way to the metals. However, if there is a technological black swan or legal ramification that causes the cryptos to correct, that also could bring money flows back into the metals for safe haven reasons.
I hear ya on the frustration factor in Gold/Silver and you aren’t alone. Most investors interviewed and conferences, on blogs/forums, in private chats, putting out editorials on Seeking Alpha, ceo.ca, or just the main stream media seem a bit disheartened and skeptical. It is with that gloomy sentiment in mind, that I feel the soil is fertile for new green shoots to emerge (when most are on the sidelines or out of the market).
So far in overnight trading the metals have only gotten pummeled further though, so it looks like more pain is in store. 🙁
At this point Gold in the $1200-$1300 range and Silver in the $16-$18 range is just one big “Meh….” or “Yawn” as you mentioned. It doesn’t really scare/concern me, but it doesn’t get me very excited either.
Most of the miners will just trend sideways in this environment, so unless things get really ugly, then I’m just holding for now. My portfolio is balanced enough that it has just been treading water for the last few months with a balanced mix of losers/gainers for a general wash. I normally am more of an active trader, but for the last few months, I’ve just added some at the end of the summer doldrums, and trimmed back a few that really ran higher bucking the trend in Sept. I don’t normally say this, but even I have been “bored’ with the metals markets the last few months as it relates to many miners in PMs and the Base Metals. The only stocks that have been really peppy are isolated Explorers that hit pay dirt.
The grind continues….. 🙂
Best estimate: Dollar bull trend now in effect. For those using EUR/USD as an indicator, note that peaks and troughs usually occur between 0925 and 1005 et.
Yes the grind goes on. Ohh well, bunker down and wait for more prosperous times. Cheers!
Regarding oil, Cory, Chris Vermeulen and anyone else have any comments on this?
Is anyone holding Aben Resources waiting for the last 5 hole drilling results?
Markets are in the doldrums, except for all the phony indexes.
WASHINGTON (AP) — A Republican senator said Tuesday he may seek to block President Donald Trump’s nominees for key posts at the Environmental Protection Agency unless the administration backs off a proposed reduction in the volume of biofuels blended into gasoline and diesel.
Grassley of Iowa needs to go. Drain the corrupt swamp.