Comments On A Flattening Yield Curve and The Spec Record Short VIX
Chris Temple and I look at the continued flattening of the yield curve in the US – click here to visit the Fred site and see the latest yield curve chart. We discuss the factors at play that are keeping this yield curve flat. We also draw some correlations to the US equity markets and continued depressed VIX.
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off topic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udSCbe2ACy8
Bix Weir and CFTC crypto-regulation
Mission statement of the CFTC……..joke…….hear at 9:48 mark……
Call me a cynic, but I disagree with Bix Weir over the desire of the government to regulate cryptos.
I don’t think the government gives a damn about anything much more than the power to increase taxation and control of the population in general.
Dow monthly bollinger band coming in at over 23300. I expect a monthly close over that level. We should get a number of closes over the upper band as the blowoff/parabolic phase of this bull is just getting started. Dow could top when it is 3-4x its 200 month moving average, which will probably put it in the 40-50,000 region.
Ok, let’s say it goes there. Where do you think other things will be? An ounce of gold, barrel of oil, median home? What do you think the best performer will be in relative terms?
What did gold do between 82 and 99? Nada.
You and your facile comparisons. And you don’t even believe in what you say, or you would change your investment position.
The thing is nothing has really broken down yet and it is possible the miners bounce up and down over the 233 WMA for a couple of years as it builds a base before moving higher. I will say this, if the $XAU breaks below the 233 WMA, I will get concerned.
I can agree with all that. Though I doubt it will take years. We have already been consolidating for about 15 months. Eyeballing past consolidations, plus many other factors I see on the longer term charts, I doubt this consolidation has all that much longer to go. If we haven’t seen a major move by early spring, I’m wrong.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p65034635915&a=551155961
They’re not identical, but the circled price action is useful for comparison. Even assuming we are in a cycical bull, while we wait for the 233 WMA to turn up, it’s not unlikely that price could punch below it.
(That’s a chart design I borrowed from Matthew.)
I don’t believe it because I don’t believe the Fed and banks will be able to get away with it. But so far, they are. Bigtime. Look at Goldman Sachs stock. It should have gone to $0 in 2008. But tens of billions in US govt guarantees and backstops and the Fed’s free money, it is at all time highs and the bank’s principals are billionaires.
I made the mistake of investing based on how things ought to be, instead of how things are. The fact of the matter is, the market can and will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I mean, the Fed blew up its balance sheet from under a trillion to 4.5 trillion, and in response, commodities dropped to 50 year lows. Makes perfect sense.
I made the same mistake in a big way. Live and learn :-/
Happy Days are here again………Stocks going to the MOON
Load up……..because they are going up………No Crash, no Worry
New 6 year high in dow:gold today. The ratio has a lot further to run IMO. Another 20% before any sort of breather IMO. That would take us to the 38% retrace in the ratio.