Where’s The Momentum In The Gold Market?
Craig Hemke kicks off toady with some thoughts on the range bound gold price. The lack of any momentum has traders turning away from the market which is further contributing to the slow market. Still up from the lows of 2015 gold really needs a push to the upside before we can all get excited.
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At least we can talk and talk and talk. Craig makes a lot of money with his website. Good for him. Money for nothing, chicks for free.
Here’s one thing the Bitcoin frenzy has in common with the Dot-com bubble
Published: Nov 2, 2017
“Whether bitcoin is in a bubble may be up for debate. But there is one thing about the cryptocurrency craze that is reminiscent of the late 1990s tech boom.
Companies that put the word “blockchain” or other cryptocurrency terms in their name have seen their share prices soar, much like companies that added a dot-com to their name received an almost automatic boost about two decades ago, according to Raghavendra Rau, professor of finance at Cambridge Judge Business School in the U.K.”
“Soaring prices of bitcoin and increased attention in cryptocurrencies from average folk, professional investors, and regulators alike, have compelled a number of companies like On-Line PLC—hoping to piggyback on the ascendance of the digital currencies and blockchain technology—to either change their names, reshape their business models or both, to underline their links to crypto assets. Those moves are drawing parallels to the late-1990s dot-com boom.
“There is nothing new under the sun. These manias spread every few years when new technologies appear with uncertain potentials,” Rau told MarketWatch.
“It happened for airlines during the 1920s, it happened during the dot-com boom, it happened during the China boom and it is happening again with blockchain. And this time too, it’s not different,” he said. Blockchain refers to the digital record-keeping technology that underpins bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.”
“…Rau said comparing HIVE with Facebook Inc. FB, using the social network’s valuations when it went public in 2012 at about 62 times trailing earnings, would imply that HIVE should earn about $13 million in net profit to justify its current value.”
Well I’m in v.hive and v.ltv for now cuz bubble or not there’s money to be made
Hi Wolfster,
Yes, they’ve both been on a continuous tear higher for sure, and investors are getting nice returns (providing they book profits along the journey).
I remember the IPO of HIVE and thought, $.80, I’ll get some when it drops back to the $.60 range. Nope, it took off and never looked back…. (sigh) Whoops!
I Woulda, coulda, shoulda…… 🙂
Wishing you as always all the best in your trading and investing and I hope you make a fortune sir.
Thanks Ex. All the best to you too. If we all hit home runs a gathering in a nice locale would be in order……after I get my second home on the Sunshine Coast in bc of course. 🤞🤞🤞
Bring on the homeruns!
Right now all I have going are a few base hits and a number of foul balls 🙂
Well that was really foul!!! Halting to announce early release of shares to increase market liquidity. Never heard that one before. 😡😡😡
They had plenty of market liquidity. Call up Franky Holmes and give him a piece of your mind.
What Happened to HIVE today?
The Next Big Rush – Nov 3, 2017
The View from the Goldcorp Chairman’s Office (Ian Telfer)
by @tommy on November 2, 2017
https://ceo.ca/@tommy/goldcorp-chairman-ian-telfer-interview
Telfer gave millions in bribes to the Clintons.
Yes. Now he is investing in an oil company.
Something tells me he’ll get all the green lights he needs as things move along 😉
VIDEO — Brent Cook: Majors are Looking at This Type of Junior
Major miners need to boost their reserves, says Brent Cook of Exploration Insights. And they’ll be looking at this type of junior to do so.
Looks like a topping candle in the commodity complex this week. It looked so promising. But back down we go. It’s overbought too on the stochastics and they have plenty of room to fall. Just a pathetic sector. Absolutely dead money for a long long time to come. Mission accomplished by global central bankers.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p84948236472&a=554572407&listNum=1
The US Dollar is up to 94.91 and continuing to rise coming out of the inverse H&S pattern as most anticipated. The downward pressure on commodities will stay in place until this move in the dollar tops out and rolls over at around .96-.97 resistance. That will likely coincide with the FOMC Fed-babble.
Maybe.
silver stocks are so sad looking. IPT.V hasn’t touched its 20 WMA for 23 weeks! I mean, even in the worst bear markets I don’t know if it ever did that. It’s “correction” is already on par with 2008-09 IMO, and will probably end in the same dramatic way.
It’s been an ugly corrective leg for sure, but it is still way above it’s 2016 lows. I’d be more concerned on stocks that break below their 2016 lows.
HL has made higher lows since 2001. By your definition it has been in a bull market the entire time.
That isn’t my definition spanky, and you’re leaving out the other part of the equation that it also needs to make higher highs. That is THE definition of what a bull market is.
Now that you brought it up, just to be snarky, if you look a longer term chart of Hecla, it has made lower highs, so from a Secular Bull standpoint, that trendline is still intact as support, and it hasn’t broken to a lower low than it’s 2001 low.
It is much the same way Gold hasn’t broke it’s 1999 Major Low and is why Gold is still in it’s larger Secular Bull. There are often 3-5 Cyclical Bulls and about as many Cyclical Bears within the larger Secular Bull. I wouldn’t expect you take the time to understand that though.
correction: HL has made Higher Lows…so that trendline of support is still intact.
Also, USD fell dramatically for the prior 9-10 months, and yet commodities also were mostly down during that period. It’s just a trash sector.
I’d disagree there and point out that the Base Metals and Energy Metals like Dr. Copper, Zinc, Lead, Palladium, Lithium, Nickel, Manganese, Niobium, Scandium, etc… surged higher. It was the Precious Metals that were more lack luster than most (including me) expected them to behave. The rally in Gold/Silver was extremely muted.
Again, using commodity Indexes can be misleading because they are so heavily weighted towards Oil & Gas, and have Soft Commodities in the mix which muddle the picture. It’s best to look at each Commodity on their own merits.
The underperformance the PM miners was disappointing though for sure.
And yet you. Matthew and GH have jeered at me for being too bearish and that everything looks uber bullish. “Big picture looks great”. Yeak, ok. No it doesn’t.
The big picture does look great. I don’t care if IPT goes to .25 or not, I bought more today at .30 and and am not hedging the portfolio.
It’s actually even lower now since the monthly BB is bending down. .23 in the current lower band.
And after making contact with downward sloping BB, there is typically a few candlesticks worth of follow through from then out. The sooner it crashes the better because that BB looks like it may just keep dropping next month. I could see it sub .20 or even retest the 2016 low at this point. Same exact picture with EXK. And I’ll say it again, no way in hell they penetrate the monthly ichimoku cloud.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p55578585161&a=554612900&listNum=1
If it were to just turn around here and never look back, it would be an absolute freak event. The is already o bear market by any definition. And even if the 2016 low holds, it will be years before the 2016 high is taken out.
That’s 10 red months in a row in all likelihood for IPT.V, and more to come. I honestly don’t know if I have ever seen anything like it. Definitely surpasses anything in any of the worst crashes in its history. Not even 2008 had such relentless selling. This has been sustained consistent selling, not a crash. Where is the smart money? Like I said a year ago when I pointed out the H&S top that projected to 0, smart money is selling every single uptick.
“And yet you. Matthew and GH have jeered at me for being too bearish and that everything looks uber bullish. “Big picture looks great”. Yeak, ok. No it doesn’t.”
You are a very tiresome individual, Spanky.
What is it that you get out of chewing the same bone every day?
I’m pretty much done conversing with you. Boring.
Amazing. A guy who thinks he’s had his ass handed to him in the markets because he gave up his profits and hasn’t gotten rich two years in. So he blames it on the market every day, but doesn’t have the courage of his convictions to put his money where his mouth is, so flogs us all every day with his worries.
Clearly a novice. And yet he constantly disputes two of the best investors at KER, Excelsior and Matthew.
Bah.
The problem is I don’t know what to believe in any more. Every investment thesis I have held for the last 20 years has been absolutely crushed by the Fed. It’s amazing how a few winning years can completely convince you that you are right. I need ROI to retire. I wish I could just go back in time and throw everything into an index fund and never worry about anything ever. I am worried.
Spanky nobody jeered you until you spent post after post, day after day, week after week, month after month only surfacing during bearish times, and then you vanish during large bullish periods, or try to poke holes in any rallies. It would be fine to do that, if you weren’t so cocky about it and if you didn’t use such loaded language all the time like (it’s going to 0, its swirling the toilet, it’s going down – count on it, this rally is for suckers, yeah some bull market, etc… etc….).
Your technical analysis skills are improving but are all over the map, and often you draw the exact opposite conclusion of what the chart you are posting shows. For some reason, you place an exorbitant amount of emphasis on black candles, which are inherently neutral (no ominus) and charts rally up after those just as often as they rally downwards, so it just seems nonsensical to harp on those all the time, and isn’t doing anyone here (you included) any favors.
Not once do I remember a post from Matthew, GH, or myself saying anything was “Uber Bullish” because we don’t put out flowery language like that. I look for support resistance levels where I see them and call bear markets bear and bull market bulls. As far as I’ve seen that is all Matthew or GH do as well. You might try it sometime instead of staying in perpetual Dr. Doom mode and doomleading every single day.
If you had any inkling what a Secular Bull market looks like, or what the end of a Cyclical Bear market looks like, then you’d conclude that “Big Picture” things do look great.
If you are going to freak out at ever corrective leg you see then you are going to have a disappointing career as a trader.
Like we’ve discussed ad nauseum, the most basic of all TA principles is that in Bear markets charts make lower lows and in Bull markets charts make higher highs. This is not a radical concept.
So far since Dec 2015 Gold and the miner have not made lower lows, so 2 years later with Gold $225 about that low still, it is a real stretch for you to make the case that we are still in the bear market.
Now, admittedly, and to be balanced, in 2016 Gold made a higher high, blasting through multiple layers of resistance into August, and has not made a higher high yet. However, Gold has continued to make higher lows, got very close to taking out the 2016 high just a month 1/2 ago in September. So Gold is much closer to making a new high, than a new low, and if it does it concrete proof that we are in a new bull market that started in Dec of 2015.
We’ve discussed multiple times in the last few weeks that there would be pressure in miners until tax loss selling is over and the FOMC rate hike is done. With that well established, it makes no sense to keep getting on here every single day whining about the corrective move down.
How does that not make sense to you? Goodness Gracious!
The fact of the matter is the Matthew and Excelsior, and I, have been extremely generous with providing instructive comments, to the best of our ability. But yes, this has been going on for around a year now, and it’s worn thin.
Dow:Gold. If the 38% retrace/233 month MA can’t stop the Dow, or at least cause a pause, I don’t know what will. In any event you are looking at 24,625 Dow if Gold gets down to $1250.
I had started with some gdx this week at 22.50 and glad I dumped them at 22.70 today. Oil is ready for a major breakout now and I should have loaded up a bit more yesterday on XOP. I bought 3300 shares on the dip.
With the run up in 2016,Michael Belkin on king Wirld Newssaid “we’re in the first inning of a 10 inning game.” Has the game been cancelled?
If gold goes below $1045.40 then yes. Until then we are just getting ready to enter inning 3. (I’d consider the Q1 run earlier this year Inning 2).
Thanks.
IPT.V h&s projects to .14 or .15.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18516762268&a=554617773&listNum=1
gah, wrong chart. Just look at the 6 month daily chart to see what I mean.
Core, let’s get some updates on ASM and TLTFF tickers in the US. Thanks
Ok, I’m done for good posting. For real this time. I’ll be lurking. I’ll post again in January 2019.
We’ll wake you up when Silver is over $18 as requested.
Ex, Matt
I’m really getting sick of watching the never ending tedium spewed by the hating peanut gallery here. I see why so many folks have migrated over to proper T.A sites so they can avoid such offensive noise. I really don’t know how you can put up with it. Corey can you see this? Moriarty has said it too….Matt + Ex+Doc are only folks worth reading on this site. I’m just venting after mistakenly looking at several posts here tonight.
Thanks for the kind words confused and I feel the same way certain days. There are actually a lot of good folks here, and have been over the years, but clearly there are a few that are repetitively negative and snarky.
Personally, I’m fine with a bearish call or bearish thesis, but there are a few people that pop on here just to insult precious metals investors, or kick people while they are down. I’ve never understood the desire to show up every day just to tear down the investments they know other people are in and be spiteful about it. Likewise, I’ve never understood a few of the rogue posters that show up every few weeks just to drop a few insults and then leave. People are great. Cheers!
Gold market is dead has been since august 2011