A Look At GDP Above 3% in Q2 and Q3
A new guest, Richard Cella, Managing Partner at Ipswitch Bay Advisors shares his thoughts on the continued growth of the US economy. After the Q3 GDP print of 3% it was the first time since 2014 that GDP was 3+% in two consecutive quarters. We look at how business spending is playing a roll in this growth and if Richard thinks it’s sustainable. We also look to the equity markets and how the central may react if we see a natural correction.
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You’re implying, are you not, an initial doubling of crude from this point, right? When is the question.
I’m really just implying much more strength and higher prices than the deflationists expect.
$65-$70 seems like a reasonable target for next year. Short term, there might be 10% more upside before a decent corrective/consolidation period.
Richard seems to see favorability and a positive marketplace with exceptional growth coming in the future. Wow. Sounds like my local channel stock market commentator. All is rosy………stay the course. Will things really turn out that well? I personally doubt it. jmo
The CRB index is weighted heavily towards Oil/Gas and seems to be rounding the corner. As mentioned in the past, I’m not a huge fan of looking at commodity indexes, and prefer to look at each commodity individually.
Having said that, Goldfingers chart today showed a potential breakout in the CRB.
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@Goldfinger – “$CRB Index about to break above major resistance level near 195:”
My understanding is that GCC is more evenly weighted than $CRB, but I like to chart $CRB.
This is a very bearish weekly chart for the DJIA, relative to $CRB:
Yes, GCC is more evenly weighted, but the CRB is often referenced for the commodity space. Again, I’d rather look at each commodity on it’s own accord, but since so many follow the CRB it seemed like a noteworthy chart from Goldfinger.
GH – I enjoyed your Dow Jones versus CRB chart as well.
Cheers!
Another variation on the theme:
Seems like a good time to start phasing out of the general stock market indices, and into promising commodity sub-sectors.
We’ve probably all seen examples where, for instance, with just a few buys and sells over several decades one could have had incredible returns–gold in 1
973, the general markets in 1982, gold in 2000, e.g.
I would think that a long-term reversal between these major sectors presents that kind of opportunity.
Of course I don’t know this is THE turning point. But I do believe there will be a turning point, and sooner rather than later. As Spanky pointed out, I mistakenly suggested at the end of last year that the low then in this ratio may have been the turning point. The bullish divergence is stronger this year than last.
a returning to the mean is in order over the next few years, and the tide has already started to shift starting last year. Bring on the phasing out….. 😀
Of course, that phasing out comment is directed to those who are holding large amounts in passive general market funds…
People are …..fill in the blank………
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-06/ron-paul-rages-gop-plan-increases-most-insidious-tax
Powell is an outspoken opponent of the Audit the Fed legislation.
The worst part of the tax plan is that it adopts the chained consumer price index (chained CPI). Chained CPI is a way of measuring CPI that understates inflation’s effects on our standard of living. It does this by assuming inflation has not reduced Americans’ standard of living if, for example, people can buy hamburgers when they can no longer afford steak. This so-called full substitution ignores the fact that if individuals viewed hamburgers as a full substitute for steak they would have bought hamburgers before Fed-created inflation made steak unaffordable.
Chained CPI increases the inflation tax. The inflation tax may be the worst of all taxes because it is hidden and regressive. The inflation tax is not even a tax on real wages. Instead it is a tax on the illusionary gains in income caused by inflation. The use of chained CPI to adjust tax brackets pushes individuals into higher tax brackets over time.
Notice the hamburgler only has one tooth ….wonder why,,,,too much sugar in the bun…. 🙂
Plus he couldn’t afford dental insurance after Obama got done with him…..
+1
Ha ha ha…..funny stuff OOTB Jerry
🙂
Comey going to have a problem with this one………
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-06/early-comey-memo-accused-hillary-gross-negligence-punishable-jail
A lot of silly deflationists are going to be baffled by oil over the next few years.
Monthly:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=M&yr=11&mn=11&dy=11&id=p13888198633&a=418727636