Chris Temple from The National Investor – Fri 22 Dec, 2017

Gold Continuing To Rally and Bitcoin Selling Off

Chris Temple joins me today to recap this week in terms of gold, gold stocks, and Bitcoin and blockchain. Since the Fed meeting last week commodities and the stocks have been performing quite well. Still not breaking out but the moves are encouraging to the end of the year. On the downside we are seeing Bitcoin and blockchain stocks get hit. We discuss if there is a correlation or just separate moves for different reasons.

Click here to visit Chris’s site and checkout his year end reports.

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Comments:
  1. On December 22, 2017 at 10:14 am,
    Paul Woytowich says:

    I think I agree with Doc this gold run could retest 1200-1220 come spring summer and then maybe second half 2018 we start a real run and in 2019 breakout again if we start to see inflation.

    • On December 22, 2017 at 1:39 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Almost anything is possible but that is so unlikely that it’s not worth worrying about. There, I think my neck is out far enough…

      • On December 22, 2017 at 2:33 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        My guillotine is in the process of being sharpened.

      • On December 22, 2017 at 4:32 pm,
        Chris from Oz says:

        Matthew – thanks for all your contribution in 2017! Appreciate it!!
        All the best to you and yours for the festive season and for 2018!

        Most are waiting for another move down and is still a possibility.
        In Aus we have some stocks making new highs.

        Cheers
        Chris
        PS – My best wishes to Excelsior too!!

        • On December 22, 2017 at 6:40 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Cheers and seasons greets Chris from Oz!

          • On December 22, 2017 at 6:40 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            that should have said Seasons Greetings 🙂

    • On December 22, 2017 at 5:50 pm,
      David says:

      Always a year off. But nothing stops the general markets. Rigged.

      • On December 23, 2017 at 7:49 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        DITTO…………100% correct…………

  2. On December 22, 2017 at 10:19 am,
    Excelsior says:

    It looks to be a continuation of the crazy Crypto-crash today.

    To be expected though… Overdue.

  3. On December 22, 2017 at 10:25 am,
    Excelsior says:

    In the mundane world of Silver, Gold, and Copper mining……

    This developer & explorer, Abraplata Resource Corp, has been pointed out to me by a few different people, and the chart looks pretty trashed and washed out. However, at this point most of the damage is done, and I like what I see fundamentally as for the exploration/development upside and reasonable share structure.

    It is also interesting that SSR (formerly Silver Standard) has a 19.9% strategic stake.

    Common Shares
    • 65,062,009

    Warrants & Options
    • W – 1,245,448 (exercisable at C$ 0.30-0.60)
    • O – 2,350,000 (exercisable at C$ 0.63)

    Major Share Holders
    • SSR Mining 19.9%
    • Management 12.3%
    • Genautica 7.4%

    Financing
    • C$0.8 Cash (Sep 2017)
    • C$0 debt

    Anybody else following (ABRA) (ABBRF) ? I’ve started nibbling down here….

    AbraPlata Resource – Corporate Presentation:

    https://www.abraplata.com/uploads/content/QIVPresentationV05.pdf

  4. On December 22, 2017 at 10:33 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Chinese and the Iphone , will keep cryptos in business.
    Cryptos are not going anywhere but up………….
    You might have this temporary blow off, but, the Fat Lady is not singing a dirge.

      • On December 22, 2017 at 10:46 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Coinbase seems to disable buying & selling almost every time during a selloff. Not a plus in a freely trading marketplace if they are your exchange.

        If they can’t handle the traffic, then what are they going to do if more people get involved? Seems like they are repeatedly overwhelmed.

        • On December 22, 2017 at 10:54 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Good question,…”if, they can not handle the traffic”…………they are not ready for prime time……..

        • On December 22, 2017 at 12:02 pm,
          Ebolan says:

          If you have a wallet problem with coinbase.com lotsa luck! Zero tech support. They suck.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 12:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Check out this post from a crypto traders feed and their issues with the system being down:

            I’m sure we’ll hear about plenty more stories like this from traders using margin to trade the highly volatile cryptos. A SIGN OF THE TIMES……. Seasons Greetings.

            http://cdn.ceo.ca/1d3qqvu-unnamed.jpg

          • On December 22, 2017 at 12:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Bob Moriarty: The Bitcoin Bubble Has Burst

            Energy and Gold Ltd – 22 DEC 2017

            > CEO Technician: “We spoke about two weeks ago Bob, Bitcoin was around $17,000 at the time and you were adamant that it was a bubble that was on the verge of bursting. We’ve seen a nearly 50% drop in Bitcoin this week (to a low of around $11,000 from a peak near $20,000), is this the bubble bursting?”

            >> Bob Moriarty: “A couple of days after we spoke Bitcoin hit nearly $20,000 but it had been displaying signs of a mania for several weeks. McAfee was saying it was going to $1 million, Celente was saying it couldn’t be a bubble. You’ve got to have cheerleaders at the top just like Bunker Hunt with silver in 1980 and Eric Sprott with silver in 2011. McAfee might end up being the face of the Bitcoin bubble.”

            “It was a bubble and it has burst. It’s not going to stop at $11,000.”

            > CEO Technician: “How far can it fall Bob?”

            >> Bob Moriarty: “To zero.”

            http://energyandgold.com/2017/12/22/bob-moriarty-the-bitcoin-bubble-has-burst/

          • On December 22, 2017 at 2:57 pm,
            b says:

            good interview, except the advice was not to buy novo but K Lake.
            Interesting to see if that affects the price, the industry is news(article) drivin.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 4:50 pm,
            Ebolan says:

            Just a clarification, Ex. I meant bitcoin.com, not coinbase.com. So far I haven’t had any problems with coinbase.com.

            Fortunately it’s small potatoes as I bought one bitcoin when it was $400 US and only for buying stuff from Amazon through purse.io as if you paid in bitcoin you can get a discount off Amazon’s price.

            I only had a third of a bitcoin left when the Bitcoin Cash fork happened. I had to get the bch out of purse.io because they would not hold it so I made the mistake of getting a bitcoin.com wallet and transfered it there.

            The real name of bitcoin.com is bitcon.com and its theme is “Turning crypto into crapto.”

          • On December 22, 2017 at 6:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks for clarification Ebolan. Coinbase did shut down during the selloff when it couldn’t keep up with the traffic and transactions. It’s happened a few times now during the corrective moves down, so I thought that is what you meant.

            * P.S. – your last sentence made me chuckle.

            “The real name of bitcoin.com is bitcon.com and its theme is “Turning crypto into crapto.”

          • On December 22, 2017 at 6:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

            Jon Russell – TechCrunch – 16 hours ago

            https://www.yahoo.com/tech/bitcoin-almost-every-other-cryptocurrency-102517319.html

          • On December 23, 2017 at 8:37 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Alligator teeth…………expect this action on bitcoin….per Clif High several weeks ago.
            Not all HODLers are true hodlers when faced with a 50% drop. Just those who are setting on bitcoin at less than $1000………JMO

    • On December 22, 2017 at 10:53 am,
      b says:

      What used to be said about silver? btfd.
      Maybe its buy the dip for bitcoin now.

      Mr Hugo Price @ plata, had a good article concerning bitcoin a day or 2 ago, zero value to it he figured.

      I posted 2 “names” yesterday that sold, maybe they did know something.

      I think its funny tho, bitcoin has none of the attributes that were supposed to make it valuable, anonymous, nope, instant transactions,nope.

      It might be here to stay but I still have no need for it.

      Im stickin with the “to the moon” crowd in PMs, that and aliens.
      Anyone else notice an increase in old sightings being posted with comments from the US military pilots that videoed them.

      They are finally going to tell people they are real or were gonna get an alien false flag.
      Hear that Twilight Zone music in the background?

      Either that or alt news has become entertainment……..naaaa

      • On December 22, 2017 at 10:56 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Michael Novogratz makes that same point about the insiders starting to sell.

        That is usually a bell ringing… unless they are using the funds to do a private placement or reinvest in their company, but in this case there is no company just a speculative trading vehicle.

      • On December 22, 2017 at 10:57 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        The big dipper…….duped a lot of people……

    • On December 22, 2017 at 10:53 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Michael Novogratz Twitter feed. He is considered an “expert”.

      @novogratz – 2h2 hours ago

      “Looks to me like a short term top is in. My hunch is we consolidate between 10-16k for a while. Extreme would be 8k. Bull market isn’t over. Just pausing.”
      Michael Novogratz

      @novogratz – 7h7 hours ago

      “When insiders sell it always is important.”

      https://twitter.com/novogratz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2017-12-22%2Fmike-novogratz-delays-crypto-hedge-fund-launch-warns-bitcoins-going-8000

      • On December 22, 2017 at 1:14 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Bitcoin vs. Novo Resources

        December 22, 2017 JayCurrie

        http://motherlodetv.net/index.php/2017/12/22/bitcoin-vs-novo-resources/

        • On December 22, 2017 at 1:59 pm,
          bonzo barzini says:

          Makes me glad I own Novo instead of bitcoin. Thanks.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 2:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yep it underpins that Novo actually has real assets underneath it, in comparison to Bitcoin that is merely a speculative trading vehicle and supposed currency.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 2:12 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            from that article:

            “Out on the internet boards and at hundreds of websites offering financial commentary, the drop in Bitcoin is being heralded as everything from a necessary correction to a catastrophic collapse signaling the end of crypto-currency. Where will the slide end? At zero say the crypto-bears who have always thought Bitcoin was a scam. At $8000, say the crypto bulls, just before it resumes its ascent to $100,000.”

            “With Novo the commentary is rather different. The stock “was ahead of itself” in October and a correction was “inevitable”. And, of course, the Novo bulls point out that $3.50 is a great entry point for the ride of the century.”

            * Here’s where epistemology comes in.

            “It is pretty much impossible to come up with a piece of evidence, a fact or set of facts, which support any theory of Bitcoin price, high or low. As there is no underlying asset or revenue stream, no Bitcoin has any value other than what, at any given instant, someone is willing to pay for it. Bitcoin bulls will maintain – with no evidence either way – that there is an unlimited demand for Bitcoins. What that demand is predicated upon is unknown and, in principle, unknowable. Just before the correction, there was much speculation that the office ladies of Japan were dumping their savings in. Or that the ever feckless Millenials were maxing out their credit cards and taking out second mortgages on their condos to speculate in Bitcoin. Both statements may very well be true, but there is no way to determine if that is the case. What supports or suppresses demand for Bitcoin is unquantifiable and likely unknowable.”

            “Developing a theory of Novo’s price is a much less imaginary enterprise. While demand for Novo shares waxes and wanes, there are underlying factors which drive that demand. Critically, there is a news stream about something other than the share price itself. There are actual people whose names – Quinton Henneigh, Eric Sprott – we can attach to the company. In time there will be a geological model of the gold bearing conglomerates in Western Australia’s Pilbara District. There will be information, if not actual assays, going to how much gold is found in a ton of conglomerate and how many tons of the stuff there are. Most basically, whether it is a huge pit mining operation or two men and a mule, there will be an attempt to mine the Pilbara gold and that attempt will be economic or uneconomic based on well understood and entirely measurable metrics.”

        • On December 23, 2017 at 12:00 am,
          Jay Currie says:

          Thanks for the link. A little epistemology is good for the soul at Christmas. And have a Merry one.

    • On December 23, 2017 at 2:52 am,
      Excelsior says:

      As The Bubble Bursts: 3 Things You Should Know About Bitcoin

      Dec. 22, 2017 – Daniel Carlson

      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4133403-bubble-bursts-3-things-know-bitcoin?ifp=0

  5. On December 22, 2017 at 10:36 am,
    CFS says:

    Is not this just Tax Loss selling in Bitcoin.?

    I believe this will be a good buying opportunity in a few more days.

    • On December 22, 2017 at 10:38 am,
      Excelsior says:

      There shouldn’t be many tax loss sellers in Bitcoin as it only has lunged higher. Most of this declined has happened suddenly, so it is more panic selling and run for the exits.

      The question is where will support come in, and will new buyers just take it right back up, or is sentiment finally starting to waffle…..

      • On December 22, 2017 at 10:39 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Sorry – I forgot the (?) at the end of that 2 part question.

        • On December 22, 2017 at 10:42 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Man – that got all screwed up and should have said:

          __________________________________________________________________________

          “There shouldn’t be many tax loss sellers in Bitcoin, as it has only lunged higher all year long. Most of this decline has happened suddenly, so it is more of a panic selling and a run for the exits.”

          “The question is: Where will support come in?”

          “Will new buyers just take it right back up, or is sentiment finally starting to waffle…..?”

      • On December 22, 2017 at 10:44 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        HODLers………….not holding on for dear life. ..turned into…..CSSI…..chicken scared senseless

        • On December 22, 2017 at 10:47 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed OOTB. They’ll wear the badge of “Hold On for Dear Life” until all the other herd starts to sell, then they’ll quickly convert to part of the herd.

          The more things change, the more they stay the same….

      • On December 22, 2017 at 10:50 am,
        CFS says:

        I should not have said Tax Loss selling, but rather Tax Reason Selling…..i.e. shifting profits into this year rather than next year. In California my effective tax rate will be going up next year.

        • On December 22, 2017 at 11:01 am,
          Excelsior says:

          There may be some of that depending on how they want to handle their taxes, but it is dubious that most of the international sellers of the cryptos are doing it for tax reasons. It was more of an example of taking the elevator down….

  6. On December 22, 2017 at 10:45 am,
    CFS says:

    SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — At a state briefing on environmental rules that await growers entering California’s soon-to-be-legal marijuana trade, organic farmers Ulysses Anthony, Tracy Sullivan and Adam Mernit listened intently, eager to make their humble cannabis plot a model of sustainable agriculture in a notoriously destructive industry dominated by the black market.
    He came from Northern California’s remote Lake County with his two business partners for the state-run seminar on just some of the water regulations pot growers must follow when California — the United States’ biggest economy, and biggest producer by far in the underground U.S. cannabis market — legalizes recreational marijuana for licensed and permitted growers and sellers in the New Year.
    Hopes are that legalization will help rein in environmental damage from black-market grows, much of it in Northern California old-growth forests. But early signs are that only a fraction of growers are applying for permits immediately as recreational marijuana becomes legal here.

    At the briefing earlier this month, state regulators and consultants hoping to do business with pot farmers notably outnumbered the growers. Rachel Begonia of West Sacramento, one of those consultants, wondered aloud: Where were all the other cannabis growers scrambling to comply with environmental requirements?

    It’s impossible to know exactly how many growers statewide are planning to go legal, two years after Californians voted to legalize recreational marijuana starting in 2018.

    California’s agriculture department just started accepting applications from growers this week, agency spokesman Steve Lyle said. By midweek, it had received fewer than 200 such applications and approved four, Lyle said.

    In Northern California’s remote and forested Humboldt County, where an estimated 15,000 pot farmers grow illicitly now on private lands or in so-called trespass grows on tribal lands and publicly held forests, only 2,300 have applied for the required local growing permits, officials say. Humboldt County anchors a swath of California forests known as the Emerald Triangle, estimated to produce almost two-thirds of U.S. cannabis.

    Mourad Gabriel, a wildlife biologist in Humboldt County, has spent years documenting and sounding alarms over the damage that black-market marijuana grows wreak in California’s sloping old-growth forests and virgin streams.

    A container of pesticide exploded in his face at one grow site, Gabriel said. All of the so-called trespass grows Gabriel has inspected have featured illegal diversions of water and some kind of toxic substances, he said.

    That’s often in the form of old soda or water bottles refilled with widely banned poisons, such as carbofuran, and used to keep bugs or rodents from gnawing on drip irrigation lines or plants.

  7. On December 22, 2017 at 10:54 am,
    CFS says:

    MINSK, Belarus (AP) — The president of Belarus has offered generous tax benefits and other incentives to information technology firms to help turn the ex-Soviet nation into a leader in digital currencies.

    President Alexander Lukashenko said his Friday decree is intended to create “unique competitive advantages to attract technologies, capitals and talented people from around the world.”

    The move would encourage the use of digital currencies and offer sweeping tax incentives to those who mine bitcoins.

  8. On December 22, 2017 at 11:21 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  9. On December 22, 2017 at 11:24 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  10. On December 22, 2017 at 11:26 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    The worst part about The Bitcoin phenomenon is the terrifying fear of the unknown. Nobody knows precisely what is happening at any moment up or down. It is this unknown which causes real panic, nobody will want to step into to try to stem the downturn. DT

    • On December 22, 2017 at 11:30 am,
      Excelsior says:

      A valid point DT, and that has been the concern many raised about not having something tangible backing the cryptos.

  11. On December 22, 2017 at 11:27 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Rhodium…………UP……$40…….

  12. On December 22, 2017 at 11:40 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Ex, I came across your name in my American Heritage Dictionary, and it defines Excelsior as slender curved wood shavings used for packing, stuffing, or the like. That doesn’t describe you at all. LOL! DT

    • On December 22, 2017 at 12:52 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      No – it doesn’t sound like me at all….. I’m the one packed with stuffing… and it’s about to get more intense with all the holiday meals we have planned 😮

    • On December 22, 2017 at 1:51 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Excelsior = a Latin word often translated as “ever upward” or “still higher” from Wiki

      __________________________________________________________________

      Excelsior

      adjective, Latin.

      1. ever upward: motto of New York State.

      “That mine was the excelsior, and it’s just as productive to-day as it ever was.”

      excelsior
      /ɪkˈsɛlsɪˌɔː/
      interjection, adverb, noun

      1. excellent: used as a motto and as a trademark for various products, esp in the US for fine wood shavings used for packing breakable objects
      2. upwards

      http://www.dictionary.com/browse/excelsior

      • On December 22, 2017 at 1:53 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Excelsior! – SouthPark Definition

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otOARxAOp2g

        • On December 22, 2017 at 1:57 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          > Literature and poetry[edit]
          “Excelsior” (Longfellow), an 1841 poem by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
          Excelsior (Macedonski), a book of poems by Alexandru Macedonski
          “Excelsior” (short story), a 1948 short story by P. G. Wodehouse
          “Excelsior” (Whitman), a poem by Walt Whitman

          > Science fiction
          USS Excelsior (NCC-2000), a starship in Star Trek
          Excelsior class starship, in Star Trek
          Excelsior (comics), in Runaways, a support group for former teenage superheroes

          > Journals and newspapers[edit]
          Excélsior, a newspaper published in Mexico City
          Daily Excelsior, a newspaper published in Jammu and Kashmir

          > Mottos and catchphrases[edit]
          “Excelsior” (motto), the official motto of the state of New York (seen on its seal)
          “Excelsior!”, the catchphrase of Stan Lee, who often used it at the end of “Stan’s Soapbox” column in Marvel Comics
          “Excelsior”, the characteristic sign-off of Detroit radio personality Mark Scott

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excelsior

  13. On December 22, 2017 at 11:57 am,
    CFS says:
    • On December 22, 2017 at 1:57 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Obama’s looked bronze but should have been tinfoil.

      • On December 22, 2017 at 2:03 pm,
        bonzo barzini says:

        I want one of the Obama platinum credit cards. There is no credit limit and you never have to pay anything back. You can just play golf and travel around the world without a care.

        • On December 22, 2017 at 2:19 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Sign me up for that card as well Bonzo Barzini. I plan on using it to buy CryptoKitties. 🙂

          • On December 22, 2017 at 2:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Then I’ll covert the CryptoKitties back to Ether, and convert that to Bitcoins, and then convert that pile to Fiat Dollars. What could possibly go wrong??

          • On December 22, 2017 at 5:44 pm,
            bonzo barzini says:

            You’ll need some LFIN too.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 6:42 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            duly noted.

  14. On December 22, 2017 at 1:59 pm,
    Jason says:

    I’m up $150 on LTC and BTC today. Bought the dip and will sell the rip.

    • On December 22, 2017 at 2:21 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      What if it takes a further dip and you get ripped?

  15. On December 22, 2017 at 2:04 pm,
    Matthew says:
  16. On December 22, 2017 at 3:13 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    OFF Topic, Do you know how you show your wife your independence, eat 21 spicy radishes, followed by 1/1/2 cups of German sauerkraut, and then drink two liters of Moosehead beer, after that she will sign any paper you put in front of her. DT

  17. On December 22, 2017 at 6:33 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The miners have made a lot of technical progress in the last two weeks…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p81025396583&a=565042682

  18. On December 22, 2017 at 6:35 pm,
    Matthew says:
    • On December 22, 2017 at 6:48 pm,
      Matthew says:
        • On December 22, 2017 at 7:00 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I agree that Alexco is looking just great and it will still outperform most of the Silver miners, even if Impact outperforms.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 7:17 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I agree, of course, and bet that there will be stretches in which it outperforms Impact. My bet was/is that IPT will easily beat it for weeks or a few months. After that, who knows? They are very different companies.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 7:49 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I believe out of the starting gates that Impact will outperform almost all it’s peers in the Jr Silver space, but that later in the year in 2018, when Alexco is closer to going into production again, that it will put on it’s dancing shoes and then outperform Impact.

            Investors interested in leverage to Silver will be fine holding either or both. My personal strategy is to start the year more heavily weighted to Impact and then gradually increase my weighting to Alexco as the year develops (maybe during the Summer Doldrums).

    • On December 22, 2017 at 7:01 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Matthew in all honesty, Impact will likely break out versus all Silver stocks, so I’m going to post a few charts piggy-backed off that chart to show it isn’t just Alexco that it’s moving against:

      Here we have Impact : First Majestic

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AFR.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p63509614525

      • On December 22, 2017 at 7:05 pm,
        Excelsior says:
      • On December 22, 2017 at 7:20 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Ex, no need for all that. I chose Alexco to compare IPT to because I expect it to do so well. In other words, it’s impressive that IPT might beat Alexco precisely because Alexco will likely beat almost everything else.

        • On December 22, 2017 at 7:24 pm,
          Matthew says:

          First Majestic performed fantastically in 2016 and IPT still smoked it (as I said it would before the move started)…

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AFR.TO&p=D&st=2015-11-20&en=2017-01-19&id=p94732555127&a=450748116

        • On December 22, 2017 at 7:39 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Matthew – there is no need for any of the posts on here, but I posted those charts because I wanted to, and to show that Impact sold off harder than almost all other companies, and it has rallied harder than most other stocks recently. It outperforms to both the downside and the upside.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 7:57 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Investors that ignore these highly leveraged Jr Silver miners to sit in Major or large Mid-Tier Gold producers or the Project Generators that some newsletter writers like so much are destined to have less risk, but likewise smaller percentage returns when the miners kick it into high gear.

            Impact Silver is about the peppiest Jr producer with exploration upside, and the purest exposure to Silver leverage that there is. Their percentage of Silver is greater than First Majestic, (despite Keith Neumeyer’s constant claims that they are the highest grade silver producer). They may not get as much coverage or promotion as the big boys (except on this blog – lol), but Impact is a very well run company and very prudent in the longer game.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 8:09 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Ok, my point was simply that it should be a given that it would outperform most others and that AXU/AXR would also outperform most others. Which is why I went straight to comparing the two.

            AXU:SILJ…

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32663939842

          • On December 22, 2017 at 8:13 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Gotcha well that will be an interesting pair trade IPT:AXR to follow for 2018.

            My IPT position is about 3:1 my Alexco position personally, but I’ll likely take that to 2:1 or 1:1 year end.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 8:24 pm,
            Matthew says:

            0:0 might make sense at year end! 😉

          • On December 22, 2017 at 8:33 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Haha! A valid point.

            I still expect the rally in PMs to go into 2019, but I’ll definitely lighten the load if there are multi-baggers to take some off the table. I’ll likely rotate those into the energy sector or some of the specialty metals at that point.

      • On December 22, 2017 at 7:27 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        One of the few stocks that outperformed Impact Silver in 2016 was Silvercrest Metals.

        Granted Silvercrest is an explorer and they are bit more explosive. SIL.TO had a very nice move out of the recent Dec fed rate hike, but it didn’t pull back nearly as much as Impact did, so Impact will likely outperform it moving forward.

        Still look at this move that Silvercrest has had since the beginning of this bull market:

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL.V&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16909600951

        • On December 22, 2017 at 7:34 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Wow, IPT is already up nearly 56% vs SIL this time…

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3ASIL.V&p=W&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p06338471679

          • On December 22, 2017 at 7:44 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I believe IPT will continue to outperform SIL because SIL held onto it’s gains more than IPT, so it is starting this neg of the bull market from a much higher level.

            Even so, if Silvercrest keeps hitting bonaza grade drill hits it still may make a few lunges higher from time to time and surprise a few folks.

            Ultimately they’ll get taken out which will be the exit strategy on that one. (likely First Majestic again or an opportunist Mid-tier that wants to grab it before FR)

          • On December 22, 2017 at 7:46 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            neg = leg 🙂

        • On December 22, 2017 at 8:19 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I like how Silvercrest considers itself “well funded” with $1.8M in cash.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 8:45 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That will provide a nice drill program in Mexico, and their G&A isn’t too outrageous.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 8:54 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I sold out of my Silver crest on the recent surge coming out of the FOMC and have been anticipating a backfill to fill some gaps, but would love it to really correct down and then I’d load up.

            For now Dolly Varden and Defiance Silver and Metallic look like the better leverage on Silver Explorers.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 8:58 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I just recently started adding some AbraPlata Resource Corp as an Argentina explorer for Silver, Gold, and Copper. Several investors I really respect have written me to check them out, and fundamentally they look pretty solid. Some of their stats & Corporate Presentation are at the top of this blog.

            I’d be curious to get your take on them sometime.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABRA.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p59689670144

        • On December 22, 2017 at 8:22 pm,
          Matthew says:

          At $87M, the company looks expensive to me. Maybe their coming resource estimate will change that.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 8:43 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            They’ve definitely got a premium, but compared to most of the explorers in either the Gold or Silver space they deserve it. Their team delivered big time on the previous incarnation of Silvercrest Mines and on exploring developing Santa Elena and then selling it to First Majestic.

            Their results have been just as impressive on these spin-out properties, and they are still in the same neighborhood near Santa Elena to do it all over again.

            _________________________________________________________________________

            First Majestic Announces Friendly Acquisition of SilverCrest Mines
            July 27, 2015

            https://www.firstmajestic.com/news/2015/index.php?content_id=83

          • On December 22, 2017 at 9:04 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I expect Silvercrest Metals, Dolly Varden, and Defiance Silver to get taken out in this metals cycle and likely in 2018. DV should be first up to bat though. 😉

          • On December 22, 2017 at 9:13 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            If a Mid-tier or Major was smart they’d scoop up (SCZ) Santacruz Silver right now as they are in an interesting position. The market punished them for having higher cost of production and being debt laden, however in 2017 they really did some dramatic optimization.

            SCZ divested 3 different projects to First Majestic, Marling Gold, and Americas Silver to pay down most of their debt, and worked hard to optimize costs and set up better stopes for 2018 at both their Silver/Zinc/Lead mines.

            So far, the market has just continued to hit the sell button, but really most of the bad times should be behind them, unless the metals prices stay low for the next few years. If a Mid-Tier was to scoop them up now, they’d pick up 2 mines and minimal debt at an insanely low price. Just my 2 cents.

          • On December 22, 2017 at 9:14 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Marling = Marlin. (MLN)

  19. On December 22, 2017 at 6:36 pm,
    Matthew says:
  20. On December 22, 2017 at 7:14 pm,
    Matthew says:

    SLV finished the week 1.65% higher while the silver miners finally provided the kind of leverage that indicates the start of a new bull move.

    Silver miner ETF, SILJ, provided leverage of almost 3.3x SLV at 5.41%.
    For AXR it was almost 10x at 16.28%; and, for IPT it was over 21.5x at 35.71%. AXR and IPT trade in Canadian dollars so their leverage numbers are far from exact.

  21. On December 22, 2017 at 8:03 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Carsten Ringler: Uranium Stocks Are One Of The Best Investment Opportunities In 2018

    ResourceCapitalAG – Dec 22, 2017

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3HV-zvrErk

  22. On December 22, 2017 at 8:09 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    The uranium miners are again starting their pullback. You’ll be able to purchase UEC in the low ones again.

    • On December 22, 2017 at 9:02 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks Doc. Usually the Uranium miners start their rally in mid Nov and then pull during Christmas, but at year end or early Jan they start an agressive leg up.

      I plan to wait for UEC to sell down more and reload as I sold 80% of my position in it recently. Same with NXE, UUUU, URG, DNN, and ARY. I’m also considering get back into the nuclear fuel company LTBR.

      Cheers!

      • On December 22, 2017 at 9:03 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        IF we get that seasonal move in Jan/Feb in the Uranium stocks then I’ll likely trim them back substantially if things get over-heated.

  23. On December 23, 2017 at 7:59 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    Great info in the last many posts. I have sold down in uranium (mostly UEX) and have held onto IPT and will buy more. I will buy more UEX after the RSI cleans up more.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UEX.TO

    Have also picked up some cheap Scorpio Gold (SGN) and Santacruz Silver (SCZ). Also looking at Argonaut Gold (AR) and Silvercrest (SIL) and adding to Americas Silver (USA). I am peeking at American Manganese (AMY) too.

    • On December 23, 2017 at 8:02 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      I am also looking at Defiance Silver (DEF) but find it difficult to trade easily as it is tightly held by owners so I have read.

      • On December 23, 2017 at 9:46 am,
        Excelsior says:

        DEF has the goods in the ground, but they need a larger company to take them over or do a JV or take a strategic investment to move things forward.

    • On December 23, 2017 at 9:44 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Good picks Dan, calgary. Yes Santacruz Silver and Scorpio are priced for extinction, but they’ll come back alive in 2018. Argonaut is on of my favorite Mid-tier Gold producers and they’re as leveraged to moves in metals prices as most juniors.

  24. On December 23, 2017 at 8:08 am,
    Jason says:

    2 views on Bitcoin. Haters and HODLers.

    • On December 23, 2017 at 9:52 am,
      Matthew says:

      Not quite. Here’s a guy who has held it since it was under $10 and he thinks the current action is nuts and expects a really big correction…

      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4131377-bitcoin-read?ifp=0

      • On December 23, 2017 at 10:08 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        The whole world, especially the 99.99% of us that own zero cryptocurrency, is asking: What happens next? And, What should I do?…………..per CHris

        • On December 23, 2017 at 10:17 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:
        • On December 23, 2017 at 10:19 am,
          Matthew says:

          I’m not asking that. I have no urge to chase it at any price. Especially now, it is attractive to people who don’t know anything about markets or investing.
          If you think there is any shortage of clueless gamblers with big fantasies, just take a trip to Las Vegas.

  25. On December 23, 2017 at 8:11 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    Just for fun…

    https://www.financialsense.com/video

    Bitcoin Commercial: What Is It and How Does It Work?

  26. On December 24, 2017 at 8:54 pm,
    johnnygeneric says:

    I don’t know what Chis is talking about. I buy/sell cryptos on Coinbase. I’ve had no problems. If there are problems it’s because they are signing up MASSIVE numbers of new users. I imagine they are having expansion issues.

    • On December 26, 2017 at 11:18 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Is it legal to shut down a Bitcoin exchange while the price is falling?

      One of the biggest Bitcoin exchanges could get hit with lawsuits after halting trading for two hours.

      https://theoutline.com/post/2779/coinbase-bitcoin-trades-shut-down-price-cryptocurrency-exchanges

      • On December 26, 2017 at 11:20 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        The Christmas crypto correction. What really happened

        James Crypto – December 25, 2017

        “The Bitcoin cash robot that ruined Christmas. Then came Coinbase, which announced early that they would be selling and trading Bitcoin Cash. With the whales behind Bitcoin stalled out, the boys behind Bitcoin Cash decided to have a little pump of their own. They had their trading bot all set up to pump the price to the moon, but the best laid plans of mice and bots often goes awry, as it did on the launch of Bitcoin Cash. Within one minute of launch, orders were pouring in for Bitcoin Cash for $9K. Obviously, no human would be flooding the books with orders 3X above the current market value only a minute after release. This was clearly a bot meant to boost the price, however it went out of control since it was not programmed to handle an empty order book and exposed itself. This is why Coinbase shut down BCH trading for the day. They knew a bot on their exchange had been exposed and they needed to shut everything down and remove the evidence, which they did.”

        http://jamescrypto.com/the-christmas-crypto-correction-what-really-happened/