The USD:Gold Relationship – What To Watch For
Doc joins me today to further focus on the move down in the USD and move up in PMs. On short term chats these moves are at overbought/oversold levels and are closing in on some key price levels.
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James, I don’t know about gold—maybe a few hand grenades, dirty bombs, etc.
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Doc.. you’ve been correct the past couple of years — short term gold rallies being sold. I think this time we are going higher — gold to 1525 – 1550/ GDX 40. However, if it is reached, it will have sucked in bulls for the slaughter. A major drop could occur from there bringing gold down to $500. An 80 year supercycle is ending. We could see a global deflationary commodity bust that will take the S&P down to 500. The yearly chart for the S&P 500 is so clean. Global debt is leveraged to the hilt. They can kick the can only so far down the road before it’s going to unwind.
Velma, thanks for the comment–you could be very right. This year will be very interesting.
I think Cliff High was sayin his bot pewter crystal ball told him gold was going to jump up.
Then people find out there is tons and tons around and is hoarded the same way diamonds are, so down comes the price.
Maybe Cliff and Harry are buds.
They SHOULD be buds because neither of them has a clue.
The peoples gold is GONE……..None in Ft. Knox…..
1981
When President Ronald Reagan (right) took office, his conservative friends suggested to him that he return to a gold standard, as a means to curbing government spending.
President Reagan was on board with this idea and so he appointed a group of men called the, “Gold Commission,” to undertake a feasibility study and report their findings back to Congress.
1982
President Reagan’s, “Gold Commission,” reports back to Congress and makes the following shocking statement concerning gold,
“The U. S. Treasury owned no gold at all. All the gold that was left in Fort Knox was now owned by the Federal Reserve, a group of private bankers, as collateral against the National Deb
More good news for GOLD……read carefully……from the MONEY CHANGERS article (stolen from b.. 🙂
Within a year, 40 billion dollars of wealth vanished. However, it did not simply disappear, it just ended up consolidated in fewer and fewer hands, as was planned. An example of this is Joseph P. Kennedy (right), John F. Kennedy’s father. In 1929 he was worth 4 million dollars, in 1935 that had increased to over 100 million dollars.
This is why depressions are caused. As stated previously the top bankers and their friends got out of the stock market and purchased gold just before the crash, which they shipped over to London. This meant that the money lost by most Americans during the crash didn’t just vanish, it just ended up in these people’s hands.
Therefore………….gold might go down to $500….but, it will worth a lot more than most can imagine….
Gold could be worth more than most can imagine but $500 gold inplies the same for the dollar and that is not gonna happen. I have no concern about that at all.
Implies not inplies
I am not concerned either, …….I do not think we will see $500….
I think gold@2500 is more likely than 500. I doubt gold will ever drop below 1000.
The ending of this debt super cycle is going to have the opposite effect on the gold price. This is not FDR’s dollar we’re dealing with here. The buck is now just another debt — and an unsecured one at that. It will get smoked.
John Exter was absolutely right when he created “Exter’s Pyramid” and the dollar will (continue to) be sacrificed in order to keep the system functioning for as long as possible.
Velma, do you still believe that 89-ish will be bottom for the dollar? That’s been your target for a long time so I’d be interested to know if it has changed.
People that owe, will be smoked…….
From the Money Changer article
Notice the pattern for people to go bankrupt from to much borrowing ………the time is at hand.
This also causes inflation which is the reduction in worth of money borne by the common person, due to the economy being flooded with too much money, an economy which the Central Bank are responsible for. As the common person’s money is worth less, he has to go to the bank to get a loan to help run his business etc, and when the Central Bank are satisfied there are enough people with debt out there, the bank will tighten the supply of money by not offering loans. This is stage two of the plan.
Stage three, is sitting back and waiting for the debtors to them to go bankrupt, allowing the bank to then seize from them real wealth, businesses and property etc, for pennies on the dollar. Inflation never effects a central bank in fact they are the only group who can benefit from it, as if they are ever short of money they can simply print more.
Half the U.S. population has already been smoked and the rest are getting there but don’t know it yet. Wealth transfers goes with the territory.
The Jew is being legislated out of Russia. The reason is not concealed. The movement was instituted because the Christian peasant stood no chance against his commercial abilities. The Jew was always ready to lend on a crop. When settlement day came, he owned the crop, and the next year he owned the farm, like Joseph. In the England of John’s time, everybody got into debt to the Jew. He gathered all lucrative enterprises into his hands. He was the King of Commerce. He had to be banished from the realm. For like reasons, Spain had to banish him 400 years ago, and Austria a couple of centuries later.
In all ages, Christian Europe has been obliged to curtail his activities. If he entered upon a trade, the Christian had to retire from it. If he set up as a doctor, he took the business. If he exploited agriculture, the other farmers had to get at something else. The law had to step in to save the Christian from the poorhouse. Still, almost bereft of employments, he found ways to make money. Even to get rich. This history has a most sordid and practical look. Religious prejudices may account for one part of it, but not for the other nine.
Protestants have persecuted Catholics–but they did not take their livelihoods from them. Catholics have persecuted Protestants–but they never closed agriculture and the handicrafts against them. I feel convinced that the Crucifixion has not much to do with the world’s attitude toward the Jew; the reasons for it are much older than that event. I am convinced that the persecution of the Jew is not in any large degree due to religious prejudice. No, the Jew is a money-getter. He has made it the end and aim of his life. He was at it in Rome. He has been at it ever since. His success has made the whole human race his enemy.
You will say that the Jew is everywhere numerically feeble. When I read in the Encyclopedia Britannica that the Jewish population of the United States was 250,000, I wrote to the editor and explained to him that his figures were without doubt a misprint for 25,000,000. People told me that they had reason to suspect that for business reasons, many Jews did not report themselves as Jews. It looks plausible. I am strongly of the opinion that we have an immense Jewish population in America. I am assured by men competent to speak that the Jews are exceedingly active in politics…
– Mark Twain
USA, Americas Silver had a nice bounce on increased volume today, I believe it could move up nicely from here. It’s been trading sideways for more than 3 years and at some point it will break out of it’s slumber. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ- POP!
(USA) (USAS) Americas Silver Corp had a huge move up in 2016 so I wouldn’t say it was in a slumber then and if anything, it’s been trading upwards since the new bull market began.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USAS&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75305590542
I was buying heavy at the end of 2015 and early 2016 and it ended up being one of my more profitable trades for 2016. Far from boring my friend. 🙂
Yup, 10 bagger in 6 months is not quite sideways!
+10
i thought auryn was supposed to have non stop news this past half year
Doc,you told Matthew you wanted to buy Jaguar@.26. Did you mean 26 US or Canadian cents? Thanks.
BB, .26 canadian on the Toronto exchange.
Wow, that’s quite a drop!
It already went down to $.24-$.25 this last summer (lower than it ever should have) when that fund liquidated it for no fundamental reason. I was aggressively buying it at that time, and remarking that the sell-off was waaaaay overdone at the time.
The fact that it didn’t bounce right back was due to the huge downside move in late July that stretched out all of August. It was the best opportunity to get positioned, but if it goes back to test anywhere to close to that level, I’ll be adding more with both hands.
2018 should allow JAG to get rerated up multi-fold, more in alignment with it’s peers.
That big gap in September is just gonna have to wait (for a long, looong time)…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p67594136267&a=537536893
Yes….. let that gap keeping waiting for a long time. JAG is on the prowl….
Expect once company CPAs analyse and make recommendation to management over $1 trillion abroad will be repatriated to the U.S. This will be short term positive for the dollar.
Long term, on the other hand, I see a collapse, not just a slow fall, because the petrodollar is dying. If the U.S. is stupid enough to be more aggressive with N. Korea, I expect China to kill the U.S. dollar.
Doc, what is your estimate of a target price for silver over the short term and what level do you believe it will go down to when it does correct?
Enjoyed Doc’s comments. Particularly the “don’t chase” part. jmo
Agreed Silverdollar. The time to “chase” the stocks was when they went lower in tax loss/FOMC correction. Now is the time to potentially trim a bit of the winnings back and then reload and buy each dip.
Those who missed the 2016 low and chased early did extremely well while those who waited for a significant pullback missed the whole thing or bought very late.
Waiting for a “red” day in the sector is fine but waiting for pullbacks of a specific size can be a big mistake.
Agreed. I’m not saying exit one’s whole position or get out of the market.
My point was the time to “chase” was a month ago, and now it s good time for trading around one’s core positions (if people like to swing trade the pops and drops).
I simply trimmed back 20-30% of the positions yesterday and today with the heightened liquidity in the markets on some of the stocks that I had added to in late Nov/early Dec. It worked out well as many have already pulled back down 5-10% , and as we’ve discussed before, this is selective and not an across the board trim (which wouldn’t make sense).
For those that positioned in the lows a few weeks ago, many of the stocks in the sector have already rallied quite nicely 20-50%. I’m not expecting a huge selloff or anything, but after gold rallied 12 out of 13 days, it may be time for a brief rest before moving higher. It’s a dip I plan on buying right back into.
Ultimately on this move I’d like to see Gold get up to Gary Wagner’s target of the $1330’s before it may take a longer break, and the miners will outperform that move. At that point, I’ll likely trim a bit more aggressively and reduce prior to the spring and re-evaluate at that time.
The larger move up will likely be later in the year, but there is likely a bit more oomph to this rally over the next month or two for sure. If there is a pullback into the spring/summer, I’d prefer to rotate some funds into other sectors, and then come back at the end of the summer. (again, always leaving core positions in place in case there are any upside surprises).
Also, I get more interested in exploration stocks in the Summer & Fall and less so in the producers & developers. However at the beginning of the the moves the Producers and Developers typically move first. (Bullwhip analogy).
Cheers!
I think there’s a lot more to the current move than most think. This is no bounce or “relief rally” and today’s pullback probably won’t last long at all.
This move will likely be bigger and last longer than the 2016 move but not as vertical. It’s been years since we’ve had a good fall (autumn!) and the setup is right for one so most of the entire year could be a good one. Who knows, the current move could end before the fall just like 2016. If so, I doubt very much that the ensuing correction will be anything like the one we just went through (in terms of depth or duration).
The juniors are doing very well already and will continue to. This action bodes very well for the weeks and months ahead:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p12565531866
I don’t think gold will be taking much of a break at Wagner’s target. If you look at the weekly chart, gold is barely getting started so short covering will likely take it much higher pretty quickly – maybe 1370-ish…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=9&id=p47217209745&a=563285689
Fair enough. I guess my thinking was swayed by all those expecting a pullback in about a month or two. Buying and holding in a bull market is a safer strategy for most investors, but there are always ups & downs in any market (Bull or Bear) that can be effectively traded to maximize profits during sideways trading, or to catch small corrections for buying, and trimming on oversold rallies. (not entire positions, but just a chunk here or a tranche there).
For the record I’ve never been as fully deployed as I was pre FOMC so maybe I’m just nervous about being “over-exposed”. Sometimes taking some chips off the table and lowering my cost basis calms my nerves, reduces risk, but sometimes it limits gains. It’s a 2 way street for sure.
There probably will be a pullback in a month or two but, unlike a year ago, I don’t think it will mark the end of the move.
I was way overexposed at the 2016 low and am just as overexposed now.
Selling into significant strength after many weeks up usually makes sense and we can always buy back.
When you see diss in the NEWS ! Gold Will Explode ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEA4BgiECLY