US Markets, VIX, Base Metals, and Oil Show Massive Liquidity
Chris Temple kicks off today with comments on the US markets as well as base metals and oil. Another day and see are seeing US markets continue their strong rise. It is interesting to see the VIX also rising today. This show traders are trying to be at least a little protected for a coming natural pullback. We also look at the general pull back in the metals but still the fact that base metals and oil remain at a higher level. This is telling us something about the overall economies.
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SILJ priced in gold (GLD) looks like it’s getting ready to add some quick gains:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p78060147560&a=570676876
Is anyone else following New Pacific Metals Corp (NUAG) (NUPMF)?
This is a Silver miner with most of their assets in Bolivia and it is basically the SilverCorp Metals team just operating in a different jurisdiction. They do have a Silver/Zinc/Lead project in China, but most of the action and the strategic investment by Pan American Silver is focused on Bolivia.
* Major Shareholders (fully diluted)
Silvercorp Metals Inc. (TSX: SVM) 27.9%
Pan American Silver Corp. (TSX: PAAS) 16.4%
Dr. Rui Feng 7.5%
>> Corporate Presentation for New Pacific Metals:
http://www.newpacificmetals.com/_resources/presentation/NUAG-Corporate-Presentation.pdf
New Pacific Metals (NUAG) (NUPMF) will also be featured at this weekends Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver:
https://www.metalsinvestorforum.com/exhibitors/current-exhibitors
Ex:
What do you think of Group Ten?
I like it as a neighboring property to Wellgreen Platinum. It’s shares have been on a tear lately.
I believe are also neighbors to the old Stillwater mining PGMs project in Montana, so that should give them nice exposure to the higher Palladium prices at present.
Bob M. I just got a quick moment to swing by the Group Ten website and now I realize why you brought them up, as they are on trend with Treasury Metals Goliath project.
Interesting, as I had no idea they had property in Ontario.
http://grouptenmetals.com/?page_id=6352
** P.S. – I forgot about your friend Greg Johnson (of Metallic Metals and formerly of Wellgreen Platinum) being on the BOD as well. That is a plus as well.
There are just so many interesting companies out there.
Bolivia is rapidly coming to a boil over Evo Morales’ announced intention to run for another term in 2019 in spite of the national referendum last year that firmly told him ‘no’, and his recent re-vamping of the penal code.
What do you expect from a socialist?
This is pure idiocracy; socialism for his dumb sheeple but not for him!
“The Bolivian politician has an estimated net worth of $185 million. He owes his fortune to smart stock investments, substantial property holdings, lucrative endorsement deals with CoverGirl cosmetics. He also owns several restaurants (the “Fat Morales Burger” chain) in Sucre, a Football Team (the “Orinoca Angels”), has launched his own brand of Vodka (Pure Wondermorales – Bolivia), and is tackling the juniors market with a top-selling perfume (With Love from Evo) and a fashion line called “Evo Morales Seduction”.
https://en.mediamass.net/people/evo-morales/highest-paid.html
Yes, Morales has made a fortune in makeup, burgers, vodka and perfume, but does he hold any shares of NUAG for his next fortune? (haha!)
I’m a big fan & shareholder of (SVM) Silvercorp and I like how much stake they have in (NUAG), as well as Pan American Silver.
PAAS has been operating in Bolivia since 1999 and they seem like the idea suitor.
Anticipating the concerns on Bolivia page 26 of the presentation above offers the following:
“THE NEW #BOLIVIA” – Stable and Endowed
• Stable Government – Evo Morales First Indigenous President of Bolivia
• 11 years in office.
• Government encouraging resource foreign investment
• New Mining laws in 2014 and 2016 aimed at increased investment
• Fastest Growing Economy in South America
• Long history of Mining – Cerro Rico in continuous operation since 1550
• Foreign Mining Investment:
• Pan American, Sumitomo, Coeur, Glencore, Orvana and New Pacific Metals
While it may not be the ideal jurisdiction, it wasn’t long ago that people had the same concerns about Peru, Argentina, Guyana, and Ecuador a few years back. I’m just wandering if Bolivia may be next to turn the ship around?
South America isn’t without risk, but neither is the US, Cananda, or Mexico for that matter. The perceived “Jurisdiction Risk” may hurt them, but I remember back in late 2015 when people told me they wouldn’t touch (SVM) SilverCorp with a barge-pole because they were in China an it was too risky, and it was too turbulent to be a miner there. However, because their economics were solid they performed quite nicely since early 2016 to present despite the jurisdiction risk.
Some teams are good at operating in the more challenging environments.
Cananda = Canada
(SVM) Silvercorp Owns 30% of (NUAG) New Pacific Metals, Says CEO
SmallCapPower – Jan 15, 2018
“In this interview with SmallCapPower from the New Orleans 2017 Investment Conference, New Pacific Metals Corp. (TSXV:NUAG) President Gordon Neal talks about the Company’s flagship silver project in Bolivia and the ongoing 30,000 metre drill program. He also discusses the operating environment in Bolivia, which is home to projects developed by companies such as Glencore and Pan American Silver. Discover why Silvercorp recently took a 30% stake in New Pacific Metals by watching this video.”
(SVM) Silvercorp to Announce Third Quarter Results on February 8, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/silvercorp-to-announce-third-quarter-results-on-february-73bf0
The issue in Bolivia, as I understand it, is that Evo Morales has been in office since 2005, and will have completed 14 years in office at the end of his current term. This in a country with a two 5-year term-limit. He achieved this by rewriting the constitution during his first mandate, and then arguing that his first term under the old constitution didn’t count. Now he wants to violate the constitution he himself wrote, and serve yet another term.
Bolivia has very little history of orderly transfer of power. They have had roughly as many presidents as they have years of existence.
So, yes, Bolivia has been relatively prosperous and stable under Morales, and he has been the longest serving president in Bolivian history. But he has plenty of opposition and it is growing. Given the radical nature of the reforms that Morales is trying to impose, AFTER last years’ referendum clearly demonstrated he does not have that kind of mandate, Bolivians are worried that he will turn Bolivia into Venezuela. The spectacle of Venezuela will stiffen their resolve.
Bolivia is unlikely to return to stability until either Morales voluntarily leaves or is booted.
Thanks for that update GH, as I admit very little knowledge of Bolivian politics, but you are closer to the action in South America and I appreciate the perspectives.
It sound like it could be a Venezuela in the making, or reminds me of how people reacted to recent drama with Mugabe trying to hold onto power in Zimbabwe until he was forced out.
Maybe Bolivia is too risky of a jurisdiction, and the other aspect is if Morales is replaced, it is unclear how that might affect their mining code or views on taxation.
However, the Silvercorp team has shown great proficiency in working in tough jurisdictions, and again, they are right up the road from another huge mine that has been in operation for hundreds of years, and they are also partnered with Pan American Silver who has been in operations there for 2 decades. If anyone can pull it off, I believe in this team more than the country. (and they found very high grade ore outcropping at surface, which is becoming increasing rare = better economics).
It is interesting because I was listening to different interviews last night from the New Orleans investment show, and heard Brien Lundin mention them. In addition, they are going to be featured at this weekend’s [MIF] Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver.
They are clearly out and telling their story, and the project looks mineral rich, and the high grade/near surface looks economically viable, but maybe Bolivia is too much of wildcard. I’m sure that is why they have been discounted down, because if this project was in Canada it would be 3 times as much. 🙂
Good thoughts though GH and much appreciated.
I’m happy to share.
You know vastly more than I do about assessing miners and the viability of their projects.
All I know is that in Bolivia a protest without blocked roads and dynamite isn’t really a protest. They shut down the country, or parts of it, on a regular basis. And the situation is the hottest it has been in ten years, since Morales originally consolidated power.
(REX) Orex, Canasil and Pan American Sign Letter of Intent to Advance the Exploration in the Sandra Escobar Mining Camp, Durango State, Mexico
It’s good that they finally got this 3 way JV all worked out as back in Sept they were snared up in legal proceedings.
Maybe REX can take another trek higher like it did in 2016 now that PAAS is playing ball with them and CLZ.
Anyone have any thoughts on the current valuation on (TML) (TSRMF) Treasury Metals?
It has been very boring trending sideways for the last year, but they are trading for lower valuation than the recent private placement they closed for 2018 drilling.
(TML) is a Gold #Developer getting ready to put out their Feasibility Study later this year with the updated resource estimate from 2017’s drilling results.
They look like an ideal #TakeOver candidate in Ontario and a deeper value play to me, as most of the other mines in #Ontario in the Red Lake area or Rainy River area have market caps of $115M-$500M and theirs is only around $76M today.
Their projected AISC is $611 per ounce, and they plan on doing 90,000 ounces per year.
Looks cheap for a Canadian Developer to me, and they just got their social agreement with the first nations group there. The expanded resource estimate that they’ll be releasing in a few months, should offset the extra shares from warrants.
Treasury Metals – CorporatePresentation
Crucial Moment For Cryptocurrencies As Technical Picture Deteriorates
by @Goldfinger on January 16, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/crucial-moment-for-cryptocurrencies-as-technical-picture-deteriorates
* Here was a great summary from Goldfinger of the Bitconnect charade:
As they say…. “There’s a sucker born every minute.”
______________________________________________________________________
@Goldfinger – “Bitconnect was a US$1 billion+ Ponzi scheme that thrived on two things:”
1. A rising Bitcoin price to gather attention
2. New investors to continue pumping in money
“By creating their own coin (Bitconnect Coin or BCC) they created an artificial market by making people buy BCC with Bitcoin in order to lend BCC back to their “lending platform” to generate all the crazy returns that you’ve heard all about. Now the joke is on everyone who stayed in Bitconnect up to today because they have announced they are shutting down their exchange and lending platforms and “transferring all your lending wallet balance to your BitConnect wallet balance at 363.62 USD” – this is the “out” they always knew they had and hence why created an artificial market for their BCC coin which should have been called Ponzi Coin. Now everyone who was “lending” money through Bitconnect is stuck with BCC coins which are NOT Bitcoins, and in all likelihood BCCs are completely worthless now because there is no demand for them. Only supply. This is how a Ponzi scheme ends in the 2018 world.”
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Bitconnect #Ponzi — from #crypto, 37 minutes ago
Before & After #Cryptos:
@Goldfinger – “Ripple chart should be familiar to Canadian junior mining investors, classic “pump and dump” pattern:”
They call bitcoin a currency. It is down about 50% from the peak and not likely to bounce off 10,000 this time. Bounce of 10k would be expected. The next big bounce might be off 5,000. The real value is likely close to 100.
Riot blockchain a company that produces nothing went from $4 in September to $46 and today it hit $18. Even Kodak was shooting up a few days ago as they are making a crypto currency. Eventually there will thousands of these valueless bogus currencies.
#Crypto Trader Diagram:
LOL….
Pioneer Resources Ltd. Sinclair Zone Caesium Project update
PIO.AX PIONF
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180117/pdf/43qvscvm55s6vt.pdf
Why I am Still Bullish on Gold Miners (Medium Term)
The Hedgeless Horseman – January 17, 2018
A lot of the “twitter traders” I follow seem to have been bearish gold and the miners for quite some time (even expecting a crash), and more are joining the choir every passing day. Personally I am still 100% allocated based on my charts because the indicators I use have triggered medium term buy signals:”
http://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/chart-of-the-day/still-bullish-miners-medium-term/
This horseman is correct. The outlook unambiguously bullish.
He’s a sharp guy and I agree with his thesis and charts as well.
@Goldfinger – “Significant breakdown in US $Dollar in progress: ”
“Good reason to own $gold and $silver, considering that this top was 3+ years in the making in the USD there is definitely ample downside still ahead.”
Euro Speculators Amass the Biggest Long Positioning Ever: Chart
By Sid Verma – January 15, 2018
US Dollar 90.35
Gold 1341.90
Silver 17.27
Palladium 1100.90
Platinum 1009.60
Oil 63.89
This Is What Would Drive Gold To $1,450 – DeCarley Trading
Jan 11, 2018
Time to own gold: Sharps Pixley
Valentina Ruiz Leotaud | about 11 hours ago
“According to Norman, even if volatility falls, it makes sense to own physical gold because risks are higher in the stocks market as the US Federal Reserve tightens. “Gold has become price elastic just as it was in the 1990s. And then there was 2000… the best is yet to come, but not just yet. Patience,” he says.
“Sharps Pixley released today its precious metals forecast for 2018. When it comes to the yellow metal, the firm predicts highs of $1400 and lows of $1260 per ounce. For silver, on the other hand, it foresees an average price of $18.08 per ounce, with possible highs of $19.10 and lows of $15.60.”
“Silver surprises every now and then,” the media brief states. “If we expect gold to notch up an 8% gain then silver should score 12%. That would give it an average price of $18.08 in 2018.” According to the expert, silver is his favourite performer for 2018 because, different from gold, the speculative overhang in silver is not burdensome…”
Gold slowing a tad here. Could be seen as a healthy breather or a stumble into resistance???
That’s a good question Ozibatla. I believe it will depend on whether the US dollar bounces, but am not a die-hard inverse correlation guy. It is just hard to ignore that the PMs and Commodities have been reacting inversely to the greenback lately.
If the dollar bounces then I believe the current levels will deflect Gold back down, but if the dollar keeps sinking lower in the high 80’s then Gold has a good crack at taking out both the 2017 and 2016 peaks.
Even the so call smart ones missed it……………
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-16/david-einhorn-tells-his-clients-must-be-frustrating-you-full-letter