David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 16 Jan, 2018

A Selective Stock Rally In The Metals

David Erfle, The Junior Miner Junkie joined me today to look into the metals stocks that are moving most during this run. We saw a good quarter from Goldcorp which is moving up nicely with a couple other major producers. Silver is another market we address in terms of why it is not drastically outperforming gold. David points out a group of silver stocks that he sees doing well.

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Comments:
  1. On January 16, 2018 at 6:14 pm,
    CFS says:
  2. On January 16, 2018 at 6:35 pm,
    Matthew says:

    As I pointed out recently, only silver has had trouble keeping its 50 week MA above the 200 week MA. Well the two MAs are in bullish alignment once again and I think they will stay that way for years to come.
    Gold and the gold and silver miners achieved the cross in 2016 and, unlike silver, have had no trouble keeping it ever since.
    As silver “confirms” the action in the rest of the sector, the whole sector will get a big boost.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p92037193120

  3. On January 16, 2018 at 6:42 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Quality Junior Miner Trains are Leaving the Station

    David Erfle – Friday January 12, 2018

    http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-01-12/Quality-Junior-Miner-Trains-are-Leaving-the-Station.html

    • On January 16, 2018 at 7:01 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Precious Metals Video Update: Gold & Gold Stocks Breakout in 2018

      Jordan Roy-Byrne – January 15, 2018 – Palisade Radio

      http://palisaderadio.com/gold-stocks-breakout-in-2018/

      • On January 16, 2018 at 7:04 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Hawaii Six O – Gold Continues Its Climb to Higher Pricing

        Gary Wagner – Tuesday January 16, 2018

        ” Gold continues to ride the tailwinds created from a tumbling U.S. dollar, which is currently off by over a half percent today as it broke below the major support level of 91 on the dollar index. Our technical studies indicate that there is a clear path for gold prices to challenge last year’s high at $1363 per ounce.”

        http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-01-16/Gold-Continues-Its-Climb-to-Higher-Pricing.html

  4. On January 16, 2018 at 6:56 pm,
    CFS says:
  5. On January 16, 2018 at 6:57 pm,
    David Harkness says:

    What are some Junior Minors ready to explode? 2 I favor are AG and MUX.

    • On January 17, 2018 at 6:11 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Those should both due quite well David.

  6. On January 16, 2018 at 7:10 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Investors Can’t Get Enough of the Metal Used to Cut Vehicle Pollution

    By Eddie Van Der Walt – January 15, 2018

    “Last year’s best-performing commodity hasn’t lost its touch. Spot palladium prices have soared above a record that stood for 17 years.”

    “That followed its best year since 2010 on growing demand from car makers for the metal used to reduce vehicle pollution. While palladium’s supported by a lack of supply, the risk of a correction increases as prices rise.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-15/investors-can-t-get-enough-of-palladium-as-supply-shortage-looms

  7. On January 16, 2018 at 7:22 pm,
    CFS says:

    I just realize one of the factors causing the bitcoin drop.

    The first futures trades settle tomorrow. Some big money is gaming us.

    • On January 16, 2018 at 8:44 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      The Heavy Hand of Government Regulation Looms Over Cryptocurrencies
      Nathan McDonald (16/01/2018)

      https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-heavy-hand-of-government-regulation-looms-over-cryptocurrencies.html

      • On January 17, 2018 at 12:08 am,
        CFS says:

        Before the Chinese closed crypto exchanges, China accounted for about 80% of crypto volume, and dropped to 10% as exchanges closed. But now up to 25%, so I don’t see governments able to shut it down long term. Always some countries will permit it and people will move some of their money to those countries

        • On January 17, 2018 at 6:15 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I agree with the fact that due to it’s decentralized nature spanning so many countries and with it being able to be converted into a myriad of altcoins and tokens, that it will be very difficult for any government to “shut it down”. That is, after all, part of the appeal.

    • On January 16, 2018 at 9:01 pm,
      CFS says:
  8. On January 16, 2018 at 7:52 pm,
    CFS says:

    For those that do not believe the US government is involved with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, here is a 1996 academic paper out of the NSA:

    http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm

    • On January 17, 2018 at 5:20 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Very interesting………..thanks for the post…………

  9. On January 16, 2018 at 8:04 pm,
    CFS says:

    Clif High on Sarah Westall:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTp2J8dOHP4

    A wide-ranging interview.

  10. On January 17, 2018 at 1:36 am,
    CFS says:

    2014 Clinton Foundation Records show:
    $177 million income
    $5 million spent on charitable efforts.
    Rest (97%) spent on salaries ($41.8 million) and administration expenses.

    If that is not TAX EVASION I don’t know what is.

    As far as I can determine, total amount of money donated to the Clinton Foundation over the years is $ 3.27 Billion.

  11. On January 17, 2018 at 1:45 am,
    CFS says:
    • On January 17, 2018 at 5:28 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      The list keeps growing……wonder if the two Franks are worried………

      • On January 17, 2018 at 5:34 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Mr. Holmes is engaged in a number of international philanthropies. He is a member of the President’s Circle and on the investment committee of the International Crisis Group, which works to resolve conflict around the world. He is also an advisor to the William J. Clinton Foundation on sustainable development in countries with resource-based economies.

  12. On January 17, 2018 at 2:08 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Bitcoin on a slide down, gold on the climb. Is a reversal coming?

    • On January 17, 2018 at 6:19 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Bob Moriarty: Get Ready For A Cascading Default From The Crypto Crash

      CEO Technician – 17 JAN, 2018 – Energy & Gold Ltd

      > CEO Technician: “We have seen a massacre in the cryptocurrency realm today. After reaching US$830 billion in total market capitalization on January 7th, cryptos are almost back down to US$500 billion today. What are your thoughts on what we’re seeing here Bob?”

      >> Bob Moriarty: “The day before we did our interview on December 12th I did an interview which was posted to YouTube. There were about 136 comments on this YouTube interview and about 80 of those comments were about how stupid I was and how I’m just an old man who doesn’t understand technology.”

      “People have confused blockchain, Bitcoin, and bubbles. Anything can go into a bubble, real estate has done it, gold has done it, tulip bulbs have done it. When John McAfee said that Bitcoin couldn’t go into a bubble he was going against thousands of years of human history. When I wrote the book Nobody Knows Anything 20% of the book is about Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds – every single rich investor that I know has read this book and if you do not understand crown behavior you will never invest at a profit. Of course there are all kinds of other things to understand in markets such as technical analysis, fundamental analysis, etc. However, the main course in markets is understanding human behavior.”

      “To say that Bitcoin can’t go into a bubble is completely irrational. Anything can go into a bubble. The bubble burst in December. Today Bitcoin made a new monthly low, a lower low after a lower high. It’s going to keep going down, this is going to go far lower than anybody anticipates.”

      “Now make no mistake that Bitcoin can be a burst bubble and that doesn’t mean that blockchain isn’t one of the greatest advancements in human history. It’s also possible that once the dust settles a few of the more than 1400 coins out there may end up having some usefulness and some value, but first we must have a crash and a huge weeding out of the coins that have no value.”

      http://energyandgold.com/2018/01/17/bob-moriarty-get-ready-for-a-cascading-default-from-crypto-crash/

      • On January 17, 2018 at 7:11 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Bitcoin is down again today (-20.5% down to $9,555.30)

        Ethereum is down again today (-28.1% down to $799.71)

        • On January 17, 2018 at 7:32 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Something that goes down 20-28% in 1 day is NOT a store of value or Gold 2.0.

          It is however like all other speculative vehicles like biotech, mining stocks, pot stocks, etc…. Maybe now investors realize that speculative vehicles can go down just as fast as they go up.

          • On January 17, 2018 at 7:33 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Oh yeah….. one more thing….. it wasn’t different this time. 😉

      • On January 17, 2018 at 8:27 am,
        CFS says:

        What was it Moriarty believes?

        Nobody knows anything.

        Certainly applies to his understanding of cryptocurrencies.
        But that just my personal belief, which the future will inform us to what is correct.

    • On January 17, 2018 at 7:36 am,
      Excelsior says:

      One question I’m wondering is how does John McAfee process this when he said it was mathematically impossible for cryptos to correct or bubbles to form now. He also promised that he’d eat his own male genitalia if he was wrong….. He better get bib as that is going to be a messy meal.

      • On January 17, 2018 at 8:05 am,
        confused says:

        +1

      • On January 17, 2018 at 8:30 am,
        CFS says:

        if McAfee said that before the introduction of futures, he could have been correct, but circumstances change.

  13. On January 17, 2018 at 5:59 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Ex…you got pure energy on your lithium list???…I got a heads up to have a look at it

    • On January 17, 2018 at 6:39 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yep, I owned it in the past, but got a bit spooked when they missed on their drilling a few times back in 2016. A geo I follow had written back then why he expected those results on the front end and validated it afterwards. I haven’t looked at it in a while, but at one point they did have an off-take agreement that was going to add to the material needed at the Tesla Gigafactory, but I’m not sure where things are today.

      Back in late 2015 and early 2016 my main bets in the Lithium space were Galaxy resources, Orocobre, Nemaska Lithium, Lithium Amercias, Pilbara Minerals, and Neometals. 3 of them have since made it into production, and the other 3 are in advanced development.

      I disagreed with Rick Rule back then and so many others mocking the LI space as a scam, and wrote over and over and over again that there were real JR companies on the rise that would contribute to the Lithium supply beyond just the Big 3/4.

      I’m not sure if this chart will post correctly, but Galaxy is up over 3,000% since late 2015.

      Nemaska is up 1000% since late 2015

      Lithium Americas has been up 400%-500% since late 2015

      Orocobre has been up 300% since late 2015

      Pure Energy has flatlined the entire time, however, maybe it’s time to revisit it.

      http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GALXF,LACDF,NMKEF,OROCF,PEMIF&n=600&O=011000

      • On January 17, 2018 at 9:41 am,
        Wolfster says:

        Could have sworn I posted already but will post again. Some time in 2016 Patrick Highsmith became CEO. Believe he was with Lithium One when they merged with Galaxy

        • On January 17, 2018 at 1:08 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks wolfster. I was invested with Lithium One separately from Galaxy at the time of their merger, so I was thrilled when the 2 companies were combined. Obviously it’s been working for Galaxy in the last few years. Winning!

          • On January 17, 2018 at 1:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I’ll take another look at Pure Metals though, as things can change.

      • On January 18, 2018 at 5:23 am,
        Excelsior says:
  14. On January 17, 2018 at 6:08 am,
    Wolfster says:
    • On January 17, 2018 at 6:21 am,
      Excelsior says:

      4:1 consolidation. Not too bad since most are 10:1. After that the shares may take a dip briefly and offer investors another entry point.

  15. On January 17, 2018 at 6:14 am,
    Wolfster says:
    • On January 17, 2018 at 6:20 am,
      Excelsior says:

      +1

  16. On January 17, 2018 at 7:44 am,
    CaliJoe says:

    Bob Moriarty: The Daily Sentiment Index is flashing a warning signal for gold right now.

    • On January 17, 2018 at 8:30 am,
      Matthew says:

      The daily chart is overbought but the weekly is far from it and will probably prevent much of a pullback.

      A top of any significance is likely weeks away.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p17278326630&a=503736549

      • On January 17, 2018 at 8:53 am,
        CaliJoe says:

        Great chart Matthew! According to sentiments are about neutral in Gold per sentimentrader.

        • On January 17, 2018 at 9:24 am,
          Matthew says:

          Thanks; I don’t know why I’ve never subscribed!

        • On January 17, 2018 at 9:27 am,
          CFS says:

          Nasdaq sentiments are now at lunacy level. 96% bullish.

          How long will the blow-off top run?

          • On January 17, 2018 at 9:35 am,
            Matthew says:

            As usual, longer than almost everyone expects.

  17. On January 17, 2018 at 9:19 am,
    CFS says:

    London closed. Slam down attempt. Countered by heavy buying.

    • On January 17, 2018 at 12:33 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      They came back in the afternoon…….gold down…..$11

  18. On January 17, 2018 at 9:36 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On January 17, 2018 at 10:14 am,
      Wolfster says:

      Well they did raise interest rates today

      • On January 17, 2018 at 11:18 am,
        Matthew says:
        • On January 17, 2018 at 1:11 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Its the 20 Trillion Debt load that grimaces as the rates keep rising. If they raise the rates too much the debt will be unserviceable. A little game of Cat and Mouse….

          • On January 17, 2018 at 1:13 pm,
            Matthew says:

            BUT, there was no such debt load as rates rose throughout the 1970s while gold went up 25 fold.

          • On January 17, 2018 at 1:15 pm,
            Matthew says:

            In other words, the driver of a weaker dollar in the face of rate hikes has more to do with inflation.

          • On January 18, 2018 at 8:33 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, rates hikes within the backdrop of a lower real rate environment that is being outpaced by inflation can be very constructive for Gold. Inflation in the 1970’s was outpacing the rates, so the FED was behind the curve back then as well.