Valuable Insights from Around the Web – Wed 24 Jan, 2018

Silver attempting 7-year breakout; Hi Yo Silver Time?

The charts below are from Chris Kimble’s site Kimble Charting Solutions. He points out the downtrend that silver has been in for 7 years and how close silver is to finally breaking out of it. Silver is putting in a very mice move today and if it can close the week around this level it would be very encouraging. As we have stated a number of times, the precious metals have been lagging pretty much all the other resources but they have the change to close the month strongly.

Click here to visit Chris’s site.

Here’s the posting…

Silver and Silver ETF (SLV) has NOT been a good asset to buy & hold since the 2011 highs, as they have declined around 66% in the past 7-years.

Could the long-term trend downtrend in Silver be about to end? Below looks at Silver Futures over the past 8-years-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Over the past 3-years Silver has created a series of flat bottoms around the $15.80 level. As the same time, it has created a series of lower highs at the top of falling channel (1).

Currently Silver is testing a key breakout level at (2), where if it succeeds in breaking out, it would send a bullish price message for the first time in years.

If Silver would breakout above, SLV would be good to own and the ETF below could present bullish opportunities as well.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Silver Miners ETF (SIL) remains in a downtrend, no doubt about it. Similar to Silver, SIL has created a series of flat bottoms and lower highs over the past year.

SIL is testing a breakout level this week at (1). If Silver breaks above its 7-year falling channel in the top chart, SIL could follow and breakout at (1) above.

Is it “Hi-Yo Silver Time” for this out of favor metal? If dual breakouts take place, both could attract buyers that have been absent from this sector for years!

If you would like to stay current on opportunities in the Gold, Silver, Copper and Mining sector, we would be honored if you were a Metals or Premium Member.

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Comments:
  1. On January 24, 2018 at 9:43 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Copy cat…….. 🙂

  2. On January 24, 2018 at 10:08 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    BIg Oil Tillerson , is hoping he gets some mileage out of this one….jmo
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-24/tesla-stocks-slides-trump-weighs-emissions-standards-changes

    • On January 24, 2018 at 10:08 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Repub……love Big Oil…..been that way for years……….

  3. On January 24, 2018 at 10:31 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Silver – Looking good.

    $17.43

    • On January 24, 2018 at 10:33 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold – Looking good

      $1355.10

      • On January 24, 2018 at 10:35 am,
        Excelsior says:

        2017 high in $Gold was $1362.40 the more crucial 2016 high was $1377.50

        If Gold can take out the 2016 high of $1377.50 then it will put to rest for good whether the PMs are in a bull market.

        It remains to be seen whether there is enough juice on this rally to get gold to break out to a higher high, but it seems very probable that we’ll see this play out in 2018.

        > So far, the run in PMs out of the Dec 13th FOMC rate hike has been a strong move.

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36107254267

      • On January 24, 2018 at 10:37 am,
        Junior says:

        Excelslor,

        I try and follow a lot of your suggestions on here, but is there currently a gold/silver stock that you see very undervalued that you might giver someone as a suggestion to look at?

        I’m currently invested in the EGO story and think after arbitration the stock will get above $2 again.

        Where is most of your investing right now?

        • On January 24, 2018 at 2:58 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          HI Junior,

          Thanks for the kind words. I like reviewing mining companies of all stripes, whether I own them or not, and am just interested in the mining sector. I don’t really make suggestions for what others should purchase, as that is an individual quest.

          Everyone has different time horizons, risk tolerance levels, and investing processes.

          Personally, I’m mostly positioned in Silver stocks & Gold Stocks at present (across all sub-sectors – producers, developers, explorers, prospect generators/royalty companies).

          Having said that I believe in diversification and also hold investments in Base Metals like Copper & Zinc & Lead & Platinum; and Battery Metals like Lithium & Nickel & Cobalt as well as Uranium and Renewable Energy stocks.

          So as not to overwhelm with too many ideas, I’ll be happy to share the Silver stocks I hold personally.

          There are also a number other names in the Silver space I also like, and seem intriguing, but you can’t kiss all the pretty girls at the dance. 🙂

          * Silver Stocks in my portfolio:

          Americas Silver Corp
          Silvercorp Metals Inc
          Endeavour Silver
          Excellon Resource Inc
          Avino Silver & Gold Mines
          Impact Silver Corp
          Santacruz Silver
          Bayhorse Silver
          Alexco Resource Corp
          Aurcana Resources
          Kootenay Silver Inc
          New Pacific Metals
          Dolly Varden Silver
          Brixton Metals
          Klondike Silver
          AbraPlata Resource Corp
          Orex Minerals Inc

          • On January 24, 2018 at 2:59 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here are some of the other Silver Stocks that I’ve owned in the past and want to buy back if things change with the ones above, or that I’m following closely because they have interesting value propositions.

            *Defiance Silver
            *Metallic Minerals
            *Silvercrest Metals
            *Bunker Hill mining
            *Silver Bear Resources
            *Silver Bull Resources
            *Bitterroot Resources
            *Golden Goliath
            *Minco Silver
            *Hunt Mining Corp
            *Southern Silver
            Golden Minerals
            Santana Minerals
            Silver Spruce Resources
            GoGold Resources
            Golden Arrow Resources
            Bear Creek Mining Corp
            Levon Resources
            Silver Mines Ltd
            Prospero Silver
            Oceanus Resources
            Azure Minerals
            Azarga Metal Corp

          • On January 25, 2018 at 8:37 am,
            Junior says:

            Nice. Thanks. I will take a look at some of those. Currently have positions in Endeavour, Alexco, and Dolly V.

            Currently digging deep to see if I can find any potential beat down, ready for buy out stocks, or something with a story like EGO.

          • On January 25, 2018 at 9:50 am,
            Matthew says:

            What, no Impact Silver? I think it will outperform Alexco from here. It’s sort of an apples to oranges comparison but IPT seems the better value to me. (But that does not mean I that I would sell Alexco.)

            I’m biased but not dishonest and own a lot of IPT.

          • On January 25, 2018 at 9:58 am,
            Matthew says:
          • On January 25, 2018 at 9:58 am,
            Matthew says:
          • On January 25, 2018 at 10:48 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Matthew – Impact Silver (IPT) is on the list above in the middle.

            My portfolio allocations are sorted by the size of the producer, then into developers based on how close to production they are, and then into explorers Brownfield into Greenfield.

          • On January 25, 2018 at 10:50 am,
            Excelsior says:

            IPT is a smaller producer so they are further down under the Americas Silvers and Silvercorps in the space, on that particular list.

            The order is not indicative of my weighting or thoughts on performance. IPT is one of my larger Silver holdings.

          • On January 25, 2018 at 11:31 am,
            Matthew says:

            Ex, I was actually referring to IPT’s absence on Junior’s short list. I am often not as clear as I should be!

          • On January 25, 2018 at 9:58 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Oh. Nevermind then. Thanks Matthew – I thought you were talking about my holdings.

            ** Junior – I concur that IPT is a must add in the Silver space. 🙂

    • On January 24, 2018 at 10:47 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The US Dollar is still sliding down further…… currently 89.22

      That naughty greenback got sneaky and left the range it has been trading in, and instead fell through the trap-door of its 92-91 support.

      https://media1.tenor.com/images/59308b5ec34960502910566c6c09b5c7/tenor.gif

      • On January 24, 2018 at 11:11 am,
        CFS says:

        When I said yesterday it would fall below 90, I must say I was expecting in a few days. not a few
        But I was not expecting Munchkin Mnuchin to talk it down..

        • On January 24, 2018 at 11:12 am,
          CFS says:

          a few hours.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 3:01 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            When those head and shoulders patterns complete their right shoulder, then the moves down can be startling. There wasn’t any support under the 92-91 so the high 80’s were inevitable once that broke.

          • On January 25, 2018 at 8:32 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Mnuchin was just an afterthought in a dollar that was already going to head lower.

            The media is just looking for a reason for the selloff that was happening long before he opened his mouth.

    • On January 24, 2018 at 1:11 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold $1357.30

      Silver $17.57

      Oil $65.99

      Not too shabby

  4. On January 24, 2018 at 10:39 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    VOTER fraud covered…………early morning awakening…..on how to turn things around…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZ2_WSHpbAw

  5. On January 24, 2018 at 11:08 am,
    CFS says:

    http://www.gata.org/node/17987

    Commerce Secretary says U.S. has not abandoned strong dollar policy.

    Yet Mnuchin, just this morning in Davos, says a weaker U.S. dollar is good for trade.
    (That was what precipitated todays drop.)

    Do members of the cabinet talk to each other and Trump?

  6. On January 24, 2018 at 11:14 am,
    spanky says:

    And yet silver miners are underperforming silver so far today–certainly ona risk adjusted basis.

    Whoopee, SILJ is up .5% more than silver on a day silver is up close to 3%. That is absolutely pathetic/bearish action.

    • On January 24, 2018 at 11:28 am,
      Matthew says:

      You are correct about the action but are wrong to think it will stay that way. Right now, everyone is a little bit spanky so the underperformance makes sense. In other words, many think this is just a lucky second chance to sell.

      • On January 24, 2018 at 11:36 am,
        spanky says:

        Like I said Matthew, some day, some day.

        Some day I will be dead and buried. Maybe then these miners will catch a bid.

        When gold puts in a short term top, the silver miners are going to test if not break their December lows. Where is the smart money? Still shorting apparently.

        • On January 24, 2018 at 11:45 am,
          Matthew says:

          And like I’ve said before, it’s funny how people like you would rather get a 10% gain every year than a few hundred percent gain every few years. I am 100% satisfied that the coming gains will make the wait worth it.

          Between the massive gains of 2016 and the youth of this new bull, it does makes sense that the correction has dragged on for so long.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 11:49 am,
            spanky says:

            And like I said, I am sure the miners will reach new highs, some day. The silver miners will be basing out for years. They won’t break their 2016 highs until 2020 or later.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 12:03 pm,
            spanky says:

            Not asking for a moonshot. Higher highs and higher lows would be a dandy start. Is that really too much to ask for in a supposed bull market?

          • On January 24, 2018 at 12:31 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The miners will exceed the 2016 highs this year, no problem. How you can see the bigger picture as anything other than superb is beyond me. For example:

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p00837904241&a=573032536

          • On January 24, 2018 at 1:15 pm,
            b says:

            sorta looks to me for gold/silver to really be profitable gold needs to get over about 1420 and silver over 20.
            Course I no nutin about ta.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 1:39 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I assume you’re talking about the miners’ production being profitable because your shares will be extremely profitable for you way before those levels are reached.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 1:40 pm,
            Matthew says:

            *Unless you didn’t buy low.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 2:33 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here’s a chart of Gold putting in that “higher low” at $1238.30, and it closed today at $1356.30.

            That’s been a $118 move higher of the Dec FOMC announcement and Gold is at $1357.80 at present just $4.60 shy of taking out the $1362.40 high from 2017.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36107254267

          • On January 24, 2018 at 2:33 pm,
            b says:

            What!?!
            Now isnt low??

          • On January 24, 2018 at 2:38 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            As for the miners – GDXJ absolutely HAS but in higher lows as well. Spanky what charts are you even looking at to make such outlandish statements?

            GDXJ put in a low of $27.36, then $29.32, and then most recently and higher low @ $29.83

            GDXJ has rallied from 29.83 and closed at $35.74 today for a 20% move higher as a group of mostly mid-tiers. Many of the smaller Mid-tiers and Jrs have doubled that.

            It helps if you look at the charts when commenting on the direction of the miners.

            Here’s a GDXJ chart so you can see the higher highs, and massive rally we’ve been in.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83734143923

          • On January 24, 2018 at 2:40 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The “extremely” that I used was based on buying more than a month ago. Buying now only warrants a “very” (lol)

    • On January 24, 2018 at 2:12 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      The Silver #Developers & #Explorers did better than the Silver #Producers today

      $AGH-H Canadian Silver Hunter Inc. +50.00%
      $AUN Aurcana Corporation +16.28%
      $AUU Aura Silver Resources Inc. +14.29%
      $SNG Silver Range Resources Ltd. +12.90%
      $BCM Bear Creek Mining Corporation +12.75%
      $BBB Brixton Metals Corporation +10.26%
      $LVN Levon Resources Ltd. +9.38%
      $SBR Silver Bear Resources Plc +7.14%
      $SVB Silver Bull Resources, Inc. +6.82%
      $CCM Canarc Resource Corp. +6.25%
      $SSV Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +6.06%
      $DV Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +5.95%
      $SVE Silver One Resources Inc. +5.95%
      $BTT Bitterroot Resources Ltd. +4.76%
      $AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +4.22%
      $ABRA AbraPlata Resource Corp. +4.17%
      $AHNR Athena Silver Corp +4.00%
      $MAG MAG Silver Corp. +3.82%
      $SIL SilverCrest Metals Inc. +3.76%
      $AZS Arizona Silver Exploration Inc. +2.78%
      $AUMN Golden Minerals Company +2.66%
      $NUAG New Pacific Metals Corp. +2.46%
      $BNKR Bunker Hill Mining Corp. +2.32%
      $SDRG Silver Dragon Resources Inc. +1.98%
      $AZS.AX Azure Minerals Limited +1.37%
      $SVL.AX Silver Mines Limited +1.16%
      $G1A.AX Galena Mining Limited +0.92%

      • On January 24, 2018 at 2:13 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Silver #Producers are still mostly in the ~green today. Looks constructive to me.

        $SCZ Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd +19.20%
        $ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +6.94%
        $USAS Americas Silver Corporation +5.6%
        $BHS Bayhorse Silver Inc. +4.76%
        $GGD GoGold Resources Inc. +4.05%
        $SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +3.97%
        $FRES.L Fresnillo PLC +3.71%
        $EXN Excellon Resources Inc. +3.53%
        $FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +3.45%
        $EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +3.25%
        $IPT IMPACT Silver Corp. +2.99%
        $PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +2.48%
        $TAHO Tahoe Resources Inc. +2.36%
        $HL Hecla Mining Company +2.34%
        $CDE Coeur Mining Inc +2.26
        $SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +2.16%
        $HOC.L Hochschild Mining PLC +1.31%
        $HMX Hunt Mining Corp. +1.16%
        $AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +1.14%
        $GPL Great Panther Silver +0.75%

  7. On January 24, 2018 at 12:16 pm,
    spanky says:
    • On January 24, 2018 at 12:34 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Here’s a clue as to how that will resolve:

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p93955715443

      • On January 24, 2018 at 12:46 pm,
        spanky says:

        I don’t see the analogy. The banksters are either setting up yet another shakeout in the silver miners or they are simply going to break down in earnest. I’ll give you a pat on the back if you are right.

        • On January 24, 2018 at 1:05 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Really, you don’t see it? Like your chart, mine is about the riskier asset beating the safer one. My chart shows SLV priced in GLD with the ratio acting just as bullishly as we would hope after retesting last month’s low (actually dipping below it) to form what will probably be a double bottom.
          Impact Silver is still up 28% versus SLV since the December low (it was up twice that) and the same goes for many other silver miners. Is that not bullish to you? Because it should be.

      • On January 24, 2018 at 1:09 pm,
        GH says:
        • On January 24, 2018 at 1:53 pm,
          spanky says:

          I agree, but it could easily drop below the 200 WMA if it wants. Until the 50 WMA turns back up, it’s anyone’s guess what happens between now and then. Bottom line is the ratio has been in a bear market for over a year and a half.

          I don’t like today’s action at all. I’m not saying there will necessarily be a breakdown, but any imminent launch in the silver miners is a ways away. And like I said, I think the silver miners will be basing for a couple of more years before they put the 2016 high behind them. We could get close but we won’t get a breakout for years yet, IMO. Again, I hope I am dead wrong about all of this.

  8. On January 24, 2018 at 12:17 pm,
    Clutchdog says:

    Anyone have an opinion on the management team for Fireweed Zinc??
    John Robins, Brandon Macdonald ………….

    • On January 24, 2018 at 1:39 pm,
      Wolfster says:

      If Greenstone invested in it for me that says a lot.

    • On January 24, 2018 at 7:33 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I speak with Brandon over at ceo.ca sometimes and he is a very solid guy and has served on the boards of Montan Mining and Northisle Copper in the past.

      In reading his posts over the last year 1/2 he has educated me on a number of things of about the mining business, grade, milling, metallurgy, and tips on evaluating drill results and deposits.

      Brandon is a top shelf guy with integrity IMO. (and a razor-sharp wit to boot). 🙂

      Here’s his room over at ceo.ca:

      https://ceo.ca/@brandon

      • On January 24, 2018 at 8:02 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        “The Untold Story” Eric Coffin & Brandon Macdonald, CEO

        Metals Investor Forum – Nov 29, 2017

        “Eric Coffin, Editor of HRA Advisories interviews Fireweed Zinc, Brandon Macdonald, CEO & Director at the November 10&11, 2017 Metals Investor Forum.”

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PY83-doaGQs

        • On January 24, 2018 at 8:04 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          They just did a new presentation at the recent MIF but it’s not up yet so here is one from the end of last year:

          (FWZ) Fireweed Zinc Ltd. (Brandon Macdonald)

          Metals Investor Forum Nov. 2017:

          Metals Investor Forum – Nov 21, 2017

          “Brandon Macdonald CEO and Director of Fireweed Zinc Ltd., delivers a presentation at the November 10&11, 2017 Metals Investor Forum.”

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cu35UytTrEQ

    • On January 24, 2018 at 1:13 pm,
      GH says:

      AG´s weekly chart indicates a coming upmove, so yes, probably bullish.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31326378115

      • On January 24, 2018 at 1:28 pm,
        spanky says:

        Just like your call for an imminent GDXJ breakout 6 months ago. Sure, it’ll happen eventually, maybe. In any event, even if this turn does eventually rally it won’t be before a huge takeout downwards. No way it ramps higher from here.

        • On January 24, 2018 at 1:44 pm,
          GH says:

          Well, it hasn’t broken down. 🙂

          The aborted rally into September was a disappointment for me too. Sorry, I have no crystal ball.

          But I can see which side of the precious metals and commodity markets I want to be on.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 1:52 pm,
            GH says:

            The wonderful thing about the nerve-wracking 18-month grind down and sideways is that energy has built for a powerful move.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:46 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            +1 GH

        • On January 24, 2018 at 1:50 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Based on what? There will be no “huge takeout downwards” before going higher. What do you think the correction of the last 18 months was?

          • On January 24, 2018 at 1:54 pm,
            GH says:

            Ha!

            x2

          • On January 24, 2018 at 1:56 pm,
            OOTB JERRY says:

            Good point

          • On January 24, 2018 at 2:12 pm,
            spanky says:

            When was the last time there was a massive breakout move in the miners out of a tight base that didn’t first move sharply lower first?

            AG’s weekly chart is setting up for that type of move lower. Would I be happy if it just ramps higher from here? Sure, but I can’t see it.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 2:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Spanky you asked that a number of times in October, and I agreed with you then the miners would pull down into mid-December (which they did), and that after the FOMC rate hike that the metals and miners would rally (which they did in spades).

            We already put in a higher low, and since then things have been charging higher in the best rally since early 2016. What is so hard to see about that?

          • On January 24, 2018 at 2:25 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here’s a chart of Gold putting in that higher low at $1238.30, and it closed today at $1356.30.

            That’s been a $118 move higher and it is at $1357.80 at present just $4.60 shy of taking out the $1362.40 high from 2017.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36107254267

          • On January 24, 2018 at 2:26 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            How you can construe the action we’ve seen for the 6 weeks as bearish is beyond reasoning.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 3:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            BTW – Great point Matthew. We just had a huge 18 month sideways to down consolidation off the 2016 Bull market breakout in the metals and miners that completely washed out the sentiment.

            That is exactly the kind of environment where bottoms are born and a new rally starts.

            It just happened to coincide with the end of tax loss selling the Fed Hikes as the seasonal trigger, but this rally has been very strong so far.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 3:26 pm,
            spanky says:

            I thought we were talking about silver miners. They have most absolutely been making lower lows and lower highs for 18 months. Even if they rally, the last 1.5 years of downward action is going to be a serious drag on the LT moving averages going forward. So no rip roaring breakout for a couple of years, IMO.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 3:52 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            If Gold breaks to new highs, confirming the bull market for precious metals did kick off in 2016 and is still continuing then it will drag Silver along for the ride, and then Silver will kick in and outperform.

            It’s more likely that Gold will confirm first, and then silver will hit the accelerator playing catch up and have a higher percentage move.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 3:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            When Silver does start playing catch up to Gold the Silver miners will outperform them all.

            Silver outpeforms gold to the downside just like the upside, and the miners outperform the metals, so it is to be expected that the Silver miners pulled back harder or were less peppy than the Gold miners when things started to improve.

            When Gold breaks to new highs Silver and more importantly the Silver miners will blow it’s doors off.

            Again, there are many Silver miners that have already had a great run just in the last 6 weeks impulse leg up.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 3:58 pm,
            spanky says:

            I just want to see SILJ make a higher high on the weekly chart. I’m not asking for much. This is a bull market right?

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:24 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            We’re coming of the low in December again and SILJ will make a higher high. Patience.

            The point above was that Gold will hit new highs first, and Silver will play catch up. When we start seeing Silver outperforming gold day after day, then the Silver miners will kick it into overdrive and you’ll see your higher high.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Do you have a position in SILJ or just in EXK and AG?

            If you only have 2 Silver positions, then I’d mostly be concerned about their individual chart patterns. EXK is solid Mid-tier producer and AG is the equivalent of a Silver Major now, so they’ll both do just fine as the next leg up of the bull unfolds .

            Based on previous discussions, it seems the outlook you have is because you held onto them from much higher levels as they pulled back so much. It’s tough to be a buy and hold value investor in Jr miners, much less Silver ones, UNTIL its a rip roaring bull market. In Sideways to down periods it is a better strategy to swing trade.

            Having said that even if someone bought mid rise in 2016, the bull market will still bail them as it moves higher over time, so even investors that positioned poorly in their entries, will still be above water later this year and in 2019.

            Alternately, if an investor did get positioned well in early 2016, like some of us did, then even if you sat on some positions since then (and I have with many of my core positions) then you’re still up in many of those names. There are some that made lower lows, but that was the time to average down and lower one’s cost basis, or there were plenty of rallies like the Q1 Run in early 2017 to trade around one’s core position and trim the winnings back a bit and lower one’s cost basis further.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            (EXK) (EDR) Endeavour Silver from page 8 of presentation above:

            _ Achieved 2017 Production Guidance – Production of 4.9 million oz Ag & 53,007 oz Au for 8.9 million oz Ag Eq

            – Q-o-Q improvement– 3 rd consecutive quarter of improved production, up 30% from Q4/16, Guanaceví mine issues mostly resolved, production continues to improve

            – El Compas mine construction nearing completion – Estimated 9 months development and US$10 million capex to production start-up in late Q1, 2018

            – Discovered new high-grade mineralization at Calicanto– Satellite of El Compas Mine, potential to increase El Compas plant capacity; drilling results include 2,967 gpt Ag Eq (70:1) over a 2.8 m

            – Drilling at Parral – Discovery of potential bulk tonnage silver mineralization in Palmilla Mine area & high grade mineralization in the Veta Colorada area: drill results include: 179 gpt AgEq (70:1) over 11.1 m

            – Optimized PFS for Terronera underway – Mine & plant permits received, dumps and tailings permits pending, production decision in Q1, 2018

  9. On January 24, 2018 at 1:14 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Spanky – don’t worry we’ll wake you up when Silver is over $18.

    Currently at $17.57.

    Hit the snooze button, as it won’t be that long….. so just a nap, not a dirt nap.

    • On January 24, 2018 at 1:55 pm,
      Wolfster says:

      Be interesting where picks like USA are at by then but I guess we can all select a stock that makes our point valid. I’ve only owned it 2 weeks and am up 14% already. That’s the type of trade I’m looking for

      • On January 24, 2018 at 2:18 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I agree Wolfster, and that is the point. You don’t measure a market by one day’s action, but all the Silver stocks listed above had green shoots and a number of the companies I hold were up around 5-10% today. That works for me and is great leverage to the price of silver.

        When people gauge the whole sector on just 1 or 2 stocks it’s a bit silly really.

        * There is no denying that the move in PMs both the metals and many/most of the mining stocks has been epic coming out of the Dec 12th low and the Dec 13th surge the day of the FOMC rate hike.

        It’s interesting that during the run up we haven’t heard a peep from him about insanely bullish it’s been.

      • On January 24, 2018 at 2:37 pm,
        Matthew says:

        That USA is up over 40% since I called it a buy. Yippee.

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USAS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p74610585158&a=563477404

        • On January 24, 2018 at 3:50 pm,
          spanky says:

          Wish I had bought that instead of the POS EXK and AG. Utter trash.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:01 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I like $USAS out of those the best as well but also own $EXK. I guess once my Primero shares convert I’ll also own AG too. Regardless those are all solid companies, and Endeavour Silver is going to have a much better year in 2018 than it did in 2017.

            __________________________________________________________________

            >> Honorable mentions:
            By: Joao Piexe

            “Endeavor Silver (NYSE:EXK) operates three silver-gold mines in Mexico, but it’s also got three attractive development projects. Production has dropped, and all-in sustaining costs have risen, leading to a negative cash flow. But the company has significantly reduced its debt, so its future is anything but bleak.”

            “By 2018, with development in the pipeline, this stock might be prohibitively expensive again because there is plenty of near-term growth potential here. It’s also got further upside with zinc and should get a boost in this coming bull market. Catalysts include positive reserve estimates for its fifth mine, the Terronera silver/gold project in Mexico’s Jalisco state.” — Joao Piexe

            https://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/5-Mining-Stocks-To-Watch-In-2018.html

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:02 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Joao left off the ramp up of their 4th mine El Compas

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:07 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            It also depends with all these companies as to “When?” and at “What Cost Basis?” an investor has with a particular stock.

            I’ve traded (EXK) about a half dozen times and made money on it 4 of the 6 times, and my current 6th position is still sitting at a nice profit, so it all depends on ones entries and exits.

            My current EXK cost basis is $2.193. The close today at $2.54 didn’t hurt my feelings 🙂

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:12 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            (EXK) (EDR) Endeavour Silver – Corporate Presentation – Jan 2018

            http://www.edrsilver.com/_resources/presentations/EDR_presentation_Jan_2018.pdf

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:12 pm,
            bonzo barzini says:

            EXK and Ag will have their day in the sun. When gold goes to Steven Leeb’s 15K we could see silver @500/oz.

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:17 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            In August 15, 2016 EXK popped up to $5.57, and that was only the initial leg up of the new bull market.

            EXK traded as high as $11.88 back in Aug & Nov of 2011, and they didn’t have this many mines going back then. Granted the Silver prices were in the $40’s at that time.

            Still at $20+ Silver this should be an easy 2-3 bagger and then it could double again from there if Silver gets up into the $30’s or $40s again.

            It is far from “trash” (lol).

          • On January 24, 2018 at 4:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Nice Bonzo Barzini. I can’t even imagine $500 Silver and for now just $20-$30 Silver would be a real shot in the arm for all these Silver producers & developers. Their margins would grow substantially and if Silver got above $30 again – fuhgeddaboudit.

      • On January 25, 2018 at 5:36 am,
        Excelsior says:

        (EXK) (EDR) Endeavour Silver Provides 2018 Production and Cost Guidance, Targeting 20% Increase in Production to 5.8-6.4 Million oz Silver and 58-64,000 oz Gold for 10.2-11.2 Million oz Silver Equivalent

        by @nasdaq on January 25, 2018

        “In 2018, silver equivalent production is expected to increase by 20% compared to 2017. Endeavour forecasts higher silver and gold production at all three existing mines as well as initial production from the new fourth mine at El Compas by the end of March, with commercial production scheduled for the end of July.”

        “With the higher forecast production, cash costs and all-in sustaining costs are expected to decline in 2018 compared to 2017. The 2018 capital budget will increase from 2017 due to the development of the new El Compas mine, and two new high grade orebodies at Guanacevi, whereas the exploration budget will decrease as the focus shifts towards more development activities this year.”

        https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/endeavour-silver-provides-2018-production-and-cost

        • On January 25, 2018 at 6:26 am,
          Excelsior says:

          This should be a fairly obvious statement, but…..

          A producer doing near 6 million ounces of Silver and 60,000 ounces of Gold isn’t “trash.”

  10. On January 24, 2018 at 1:15 pm,
    CFS says:

    Off Topic:
    I was hoping for a politics post, because I have some thoughts.

    We all know that anything said on the floor of Congress is protected speech.
    e.g. Senator Feinstein leaked torture information on the Senate floor, which rightly caused problems for Bush.
    So why does not a Republican in the House or Senate simply read out the 4-page memo?

    It seems a much more effective of bring this out into the open, than waiting for some department to further redact even more if/when they finally get around to publication.

    • On January 24, 2018 at 1:50 pm,
      OOTB JERRY says:

      Good point

      • On January 24, 2018 at 2:10 pm,
        irishtony says:

        Congressman…I have a copy of the FISA email the American people have a right to see it so i am going to leak it….
        Deepstateman…We have some info on you that you may not like us to release, plus here’s some money for you so keep your fecking mouth shut , or else…
        Congressman……..OK SIR.

  11. On January 24, 2018 at 2:33 pm,
    russell s hamilton says:

    Just made a massive investment in Canadian dollar as a stock its symbol is FXC i am up 1% after 3 days. This is not an exciting investment , but it should be a good short term 2 month investment. Strong metal prices help canada and strenthen the FXC . Pray for sanity and peace . S

  12. On January 24, 2018 at 4:12 pm,
    Buzz says:

    Smart Money Tracker got this move in metals vs dollar spot on.

    • On January 24, 2018 at 4:37 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed Buzz. G.S. has been very accurate lately, and I like to check in once in a while to get his perspectives.

  13. On January 24, 2018 at 5:01 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Mike Alkin: The US Energy Security Situation is Perilous

    InvestingNews – Jan 23, 2018

    “The Stock Catalyst Report’s Mike Alkin comments on uranium demand and the climate for nuclear power in the US under the Trump administration. ”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjmeGG_gniQ

  14. On January 24, 2018 at 5:04 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (NUAG) (NUPMF) New Pacific Metals (Gordon Neal) #VIDEO

    Metals Investor Forum, January 2018: Corporate Presentation

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dz5f8xq0gG4

  15. On January 24, 2018 at 8:13 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    >>>> Gold $1363 at present

    (this won’t show on the chart below until tomorrow’s close providing it stays at these levels)

    2017 high in $Gold was $1362.40 the more crucial 2016 high was $1377.50

    One down…. One to go. Of course we still need to see a close above it in the US markets tomorrow, but still this is the first peak above last year’s highs.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36107254267

    • On January 24, 2018 at 8:22 pm,
      Excelsior says:
      • On January 24, 2018 at 8:31 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        We can’t necessarily break out the party hats and streamers yet, but Gold is at a higher high than last year. That’s significant. Whether it stays above last year’s high remains to be seen.

  16. On January 25, 2018 at 4:08 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Regarding silver, a little perspective here is necessary. It is still entrenched in the teens and is lower now than it was over 4 years ago when the precipitous smash originally began. Whilst over that same time frame, gold is $200 higher.
    This current move is good to see but we need to see more from the PMs (silver especially) in the near future.

    • On January 25, 2018 at 6:07 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed Ozibatla – No doubt about it, Silver has lagged Gold a bit.

      If you remember, we saw the same thing at the end of 2015 when the PMs put in their MAJOR bottom. Gold started to move more initially to confirm the move, and then Silver took a while to get it’s engines firing. However, when it played catch-up it started to outperform Gold and then shot right past it.

      It was the same thing with the miners in early 2016. Silver miners were completely destroyed, but when they started to move in mid January, and they were at par with the move up in Gold miners initially, but by March – August they smoked everything in the sector. That’s how these markets move, but I’ve seen comments from a number of investors on different platforms (or even up above in this one) where investors seem to have amnesia of how this works.

      Silver lags at the turns in sentiment, and seems crushed so most investors dog it and go with gold instead. Once the PMs start traveling together and more investors are pushing the Gold narrative, then Silver starts to really move. Investors that want the torque then pile into the much smaller Silver space, and Boom! off to the races it goes. Then the talking heads on financial moves scratch their heads as Silver goes on a tear and start asking ridiculous questions like “where do think this recent strength in silver is coming from?” or “why are the silver miners doing so well all the sudden?”. Lastly they’ll parade on a bevy of Gold “experts” that start with the “Well, Silver is like Golds little brother,” or “Silver is Gold on steroids”….. blah, blah, blah.

      If those clowns really believed that Silver was Gold on steroids, and they really believed that Gold was ready to make a move, then obviously they’d be advising people to buy into the Silver miners more so than the Gold miners for the outperformance. (yet they rarely do…. they just trot out their favorite Gold producers and explorers instead).

      ** Presently – since Gold is much closer to breaking out to new highs, it will get all the news coverage and focus, but this will eventually drag Silver along for the ride (as mentioned further up in this blog).

      When investors finally start to “believe” the rally in the PMs and get focused on the miners, then those that want more leverage will start to position in the Silver miners.

      Silver always plumbs greater depths during tough periods, but the ratchets past what most investors are expecting during impulse legs up on bullish runs. It is a far more volatile space (and much much smaller) than the Gold and Gold Mining space. Just small capital flows from institutions and hedge funds can produce huge outside moves, but we’ll need to see that money move into the space in volume spikes. So far we haven’t seen that on this move up in the metals…. (yet).

      Once Gold does the confirming of the bullish trend, then the Silver miners will make up some ground. When we start seeing Silver outperform gold on a percentage basis day after day, then the fun will begin.

      • On January 25, 2018 at 6:23 am,
        Excelsior says:

        In a nutshell, most of this move out of the Dec 13th FOMC rate hike, was lower volume retail investors that were already in this space getting positioned for the move up because they get it, but we haven’t seen the huge volumes from larger funds entering the markets yet.

        We saw the effect of huge funds liquidating positions in the second half of 2017, and many stocks (like IPT and JAG) sold down for no real fundamental reasons, but it was just an outflow of fund money. When we see an inflow of fund money, these tiny stocks will swell in marketcap substantially.

        To trigger these funds to get positioned, we’ll need to see some newsworthy moves up in the Gold price (which we are getting close to) and some solid moves in the miners. When that lightbulb goes off, and the herd comes back into the sector, then we’ll see the normal outperformance of Silver over Gold, of miners over the metals, and of Jrs over the Srs.

    • On January 25, 2018 at 6:35 am,
      Matthew says:

      Ozibatla, I have to disagree that we need to see more from silver, at least not much more. What you described is exactly what we should always expect at a bear market low for the two metals.

      Silver always rises more than gold during a bull market and also falls more than gold during a bear market. So our goal should be to buy as close to the silver-gold ratio low as possible. The longer we wait because “we need to see more”, the less money we will make.

      2016 was a huge year for the miners and the silver miners in particular. That great year started with the silver-gold ratio hitting its lowest low since the crash lows of 2008 (and the major low before that happened in 2003 which was another great time to buy). Fast forward almost two year to July, 2017 and we see that the ratio hit an even lower low in 2016 and is up 15% since. So, not only is everything right, but the short time between the two major lows indicates that they are both part a one huge low for the sector.

      Bottom line, I had three silver stocks go up 1,000% in 2016 and that is due to catching the sector when silver looked its worst versus gold.

      More certainty in markets = less risk so the more certainty we wait for, the smaller the reward we can expect. If you wait for the wrong signs, you will pay a lot more for your positions than necessary.

  17. On January 25, 2018 at 1:42 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    I hear what you say Matthew. When I mentioned silver, I was referring to the physical metal itself and not the miners.

    Like you say in the early stages of a bullmarket, silver traditionally lags gold. At this stage it would appear highly probable that the PMs low was made in Dec 2015. Many summise it was at this time that gold and silver began their “stealth” bullmarket. The question is: How long does silver lag gold in the early stages of its bullmarket?

    • On January 25, 2018 at 2:50 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Silver can take awhile to establish a low versus gold after a long bear market. It took about two years 15 years ago and it looks like it’s going to be about the same this time.

      On the following weekly chart, you can see that silver has not made a new low versus gold in almost two years but has still not left that low far behind (although it gain 33% versus gold in 2016 before giving it back).

      Signs that things are improving include a move above the blue lines on the following chart. The higher one is obviously more important. Again, it pays to find a way to figure out the lows as early as possible so you can collect the largest reward. The tools for doing so go way beyond looking at the silver-gold (or gold-silver) ratio.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=9&id=p43279603067&a=573386842

    • On January 25, 2018 at 2:57 pm,
      Matthew says:

      For the much shorter term, you can look for a move above the black line on the following daily chart. We’ve got a potential double bottom in the works for silver-gold and it is up more than 3% since yesterday’s low. It is a definite positive that silver rose today versus gold despite the selloff in the metals and the large selloff in the miners.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=9&id=p89327599574&a=573395092

  18. On January 25, 2018 at 3:00 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Cheers Matthew, good points. Going off past instances, silver should be ready to play catchup in the near future, should it not?

    • On January 25, 2018 at 3:22 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Yes it should but I’m sure the action will make us doubt it a little more.

  19. On January 25, 2018 at 7:05 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Yes indeed.