Recapping The Monthly Charts for Gold, Silver, and GDX
Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me today to look at the monthly charts now that we are wrapping up January. We look at gold, silver and GDX. Gold is trading at the top of its recent range but GDX and silver are still stuck mostly in the middle of their ranges.
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You are right CFS! Jordan actually pointed that out last time we chatted when he noted that gold against foreign currencies continued to lag.
Gold gained 13.4% versus the CRB last year. That’s a real gain that has nothing to do with the dollar.
Gold is worth 70% more CRB than it was 7 years ago. This is why the miners are now far more appealing than they were in 2010/11 and earlier.
Gold:CRB weekly:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24CRB&p=W&yr=7&mn=11&dy=0&id=p06609627499
Disagree Matthew, The dollar went down about 14%
The CRB went down because of oil.
Gold preserves, it doesnt really gain.
That is only generally true when taking a very long term look. Gold goes up and down in real terms just like everything else, just not as much.
The dollar went down 10.2%; gold gained 13.7%. The CRB finished the year flat, not down. Gold finished flat versus oil but UP 13.7% versus the CRB.
If the CRB had gone down because of oil, so what? Does the world’s number one commodity not matter? I’d argue that cheap energy is pretty important to the economy and should not be dismissed.
Gold Finishes January With Bullish Monthly Close
by @Goldfinger on January 31, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-finishes-january-with-bullish-monthly-close
Gold & Silver Price Update – January 31, 2018 + Federal Reserve (FED)
iGold Advisor – Jan 31, 2018
This was the highest monthly close in 18 months and the rest of the monthly indicators look great.
It’s time for the XAU to put up or shut up. Enough is enough.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24185980332&a=574815827&listNum=1
So if recent trends are anything to go by, the dollar will continue to fall and oil rise. Both would be positive developments for gold. With the dollar fall being the primary driver in price of PMs (if that were to be the case), then maybe the metals need their own positive development in order for this bull market to gain traction?
Interesting thoughts as per usual Ozibatla. Most correlations are destined to break down over time, and the Gold Dollar inverse trade is no exception, so we’ll have to see how it goes.
When the dollar is as weak as it has been though, it stokes the fires of inflation in commodities and resource stocks as a general rule of thumb, and this is also bullish for precious metals. If the dollar does turn around and really run higher though, it may mute (but not prevent) the move up in many of these sectors.
Despite some of the bellyaching lately about the move up in Gold being so intertwined with the US Dollar’s fall, it isn’t the only reason Gold is moving up. There are still massive debt levels (and the debt ceiling charade) on people’s top of mind, along with low real rates being outpaced by inflation, and no shortage of worries that could hit the financial sector.
As we’ve discussed in the past, I’m far more comfortable with Gold rising on financial reasons, than for the short lived geopolitical reasons that flame out quickly. There is some good longer term traction being made by the PMs technically with a nice bullish close for the January monthly candle, and the fact that gold took out the 2017 high on a closing basis last week. These are constructive data points that indicate the bull is still on track .
Look I agree with all of that Ex. It is sound rational thinking. But I just cant help but think there is always an unexpected surprise awaiting, both good and bad.
Bottom line, Gold looks reasonable to me at this stage. Silvers in no mans land. See how gold closes at the end of the week.
Yes, I’ve learned just to expect the unexpected. 🙂
I’m always waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Anybody paying attention…………
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-30/ge-just-signaled-next-crisis-and-nobodys-paying-attention
Sear lays of 220 people at home office……..$3.3 billion in DEBT…
Sears…..
When the hell as anyone actually gone to a Sears store in the last decade or two.
Buh-Bye Big Box Stores…..
sorry, that was a question (?)
I remember buying some Craftsman tools at Sears back in the 80’s but I’m not sure where it’s competitive edge is anymore.
It will likely close up most of it’s physical stores and go the way of the Dodo bird, just like Woolworths, Montgomery Ward, Abraham & Straus, Lazaurs, MediaPlay, and Blockbuster Video.
Sears Canada already went the way of the dodo bird
Wait and hope, well, nutins changed.
Treasury Boosts Size Of Securities Offerings
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER – Associated Press – 20 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Treasury Department, faced with rising budget deficits, announced Wednesday that the government is increasing the size of various securities offerings while the Congressional Budget Office moved up date when the current debt ceiling will be hit.
Treasury officials said they will boost the size of the two-year and three-year note auctions by $2 billion per month over the next quarter and also increase the size of the upcoming five-year, seven-year and 10-year notes and the next 30-year bond by $1 billion each starting in February.
US Dollar,
As the elevator attendant said,
Going down.
Tales from the crypto – The rise and fall of Bitcoin
The Economist Jan 17th 2018- Buttonwood
“Investors in bitcoin are learning some very old lessons…”
https://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2018/01/tales-crypto-1
“Crypto Nation”: Switzerland Embraces Cryptocurrencies as an ICO Haven
January 31, 2018
https://www.ccn.com/alpine-country-strives-for-crypto-nation/
Central banks have considered issuing Cryptocurrencies – Italy economy minister
Reuters•January 31, 2018
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/central-banks-considered-issuing-cryptocurrencies-110010834.html
SEC, CFTC Chiefs Set for Senate Crypto Hearing
Stan Higgins – Jan 31, 2018
https://www.coindesk.com/sec-cftc-chiefs-set-senate-crypto-hearing-next-week/
Should be interesting
Birth certificate not going away……….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Np-E95ys6c
neither is the weight I gained over the holidays…. 🙂
🙁
Zinc metal demand (for) battery storage would be 19.8Mt of metal
30 January 2018
“A Canadian commodity research firm has said older zinc battery technology could be a more efficient grid-scale energy storage solution than the much-hyped lithium equivalent, possibly boosting demand for a metal already at a 10-year price high.”
Mueller Wants his Golf Fees back from Trump………………..Good Read
https://bobsullivan.net/gotchas/trump-mueller-dispute-over-golf-fees-its-not-funny-and-it-might-lie-at-the-heart-of-the-russia-investigation/
$SGI $SUPGF Superior Gold Inc. announces underground drilling delivers highest grade intersection to date
Jan. 17, 2018
** KEY FINDINGS
– 236 intersections encountered more than 5g Au/t
– 114 intersections encountered more than 10g Au/t
– 44 intersections encountered more than 20g Au/t
– 10 intersections encountered more than 50g Au/t
“The intersection of 4480.00g Au/t over 0.30 metres is the highest grade intersections encountered since the Company acquired the Plutonic Gold Mine in October 2016”
^ Can you imagine if many of the #FlavorOfTheMonth #Exploration companies of last year put out drill results like that during one of their speculative frenzies? ^
For some reason, investors shrug it off when it is a #producer that hits paydirt. This is odd because a producing company can actually monetize these results by “mining” them, rather than burning through money trying to prove they have an economical deposit. Interesting.
Only a mining company run by morons would mine at these prices.
It’s shares should be dumped by any intelligent investor if they did.
2 cents.
That’s just wrong, CFS. Gold is quite high right now in real terms even if it is still very low relative to the stock market and especially debt. Relative to oil, gold is still trading at about 33% above the 50 year average — the same level it was at in 2011 at $1900. Relative the average house, it is up a lot more than that.
A lot of gold deposits are very profitable at today’s prices and that means they should be mined.
Deferred gratification is much more profitable.
A bird in the hand is best. By waiting for higher nominal profits, you risk missing better opportunities in the currently very cheap mining space. By the time profitability reaches a level you’re satisfied with, the mining stocks will have gone up many times more.
Agreed Matthew. If Gold mining companies can make money at $1350 then they really don’t have a very economic deposit. If it takes $1500-$1600 gold to make a project profitable then that is the one that investors should be selling….. not cash-flowing producers actually turning a profit.
If they stack up the cash they can always acquire other Developers or Explorers down the road & they won’t have to keep raising capital which dilutes shareholders.
In the example above with Superior Gold, obviously they are continuing to have great exploration success and are expanding reserves and extending mine life.
Ex, lots of good news gets little traction in this market. Just wait until the bull is established. Also, having a lower market cap helps to move the needle and then there are usually details surrounding drill results that requires a geologist to talk about. Sometimes the reason(s) a stock doesn’t respond well to news make perfect sense but are hidden.
Good points. When these producing companies really do well with exploration and expand their reserves / extend their mine life, then they’ll get the value eventually.
It just seems funny to me when a flavor-of-the-month Explorer puts out mediocre drill results and rockets higher, and it has a 1 in 3000 chance of making it to be a mine. Then we contrast that with a Producer, that can monetize their drilling into actual mine output, and the exploration results are waaaaaaay better than the explorer, and investors don’t get excited. It’s very counter-intuitive.
India………..vs Bitcoin……….
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-01/india-officially-declares-bitcoin-not-legal-tender-or-coin
Corvus Gold drills 53.3 m of 1.57 g/t Au at Mother Lode
2018-02-01 08:21 ET – News Release
Mr. Jeff Pontius reports
CORVUS GOLD CONTINUES TO EXPAND MOTHER LODE DEPOSIT EAST, AT DEPTH AND WEST, DRILLING 70.1 METRES at 1.45 G/T GOLD
Come on guys! Why are you so U.S. mind centric?
The majority of the move in all precious metals over the last year is merely due to a falling U.S. dollar…….basically little to do with the metals.