A Wake Up Day For The Markets – Be Careful Who You Listen To
Today we are seeing big drops in the US equity markets and metals matched with a rise in the USD and continued rise in yields. Chris Temple addresses the moves today and why a correction should be welcomed. We also discuss the chatter we will hear from the market bears saying how they saw this coming. It is always important to know and understand people’s biases when reading their work.
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are we sure this is not due to the new moon as bob was sayin? a reversal?
in calgary our moon was a “super blue blood moon”, only happens once in a dogs life…somtin like that.
cfs, did i read you right? bitcoin is a real thing?
well, if dreams are real i guess bitcoin is too.
pot continues to be hammered, the canadian gov is asking people what it should sell for, if they come up with $5 a gram we could see the pot stocks take another dive.
companies here have been planning for $8.50 per gram.
They’re going to set the price, rather than let the market set it??
no idea, I think what they are trying to figure out is at what price it has to be to drive out the illegal weed and still be able to sell at a profit.
right now, legal is about $10 (I hear) illegal about $7.50.
I really have no idea if these numbers are accurate, guess a guy would have to get approved for medical, buy some, then buy off the street to be sure.
What I do know, is the gov in their infinite wisdom will likely screw it up, if they come in too low, these shares could tank big time.
Review setting a price for gold concerning a gold standard, gov record isnt too good.
One other thing, the gov is up against a very experienced group, the hells angels.
I just cant see them giving up millions real easy.
2 b honust Im kinda surprised they didnt burn down the canopy growth buildings.
Its possible they have been planning on competing on prices from the beginning.
Which is another scary thought.
B:
My article was on the 26th of Jan. I talked about reversals in 12 different and mostly unrelated commodities. All 12 reversed. There wasn’t a word of opinion in the piece, I was just reporting numbers that anyone could have come up with independently.
The talking heads don’t have a clue as to what moves markets, much like the Turd. So they make up stuff after things happen that they couldn’t possible predict with any accuracy in advance.
It will be interesting to see what happens. The Blue Moon is obviously meaningless but the blood moon and super moon and eclipse might mark the beginning of the end for all the stupid bubbles.
Anyone who still believes bitcon is viable is going to be in for a shock. All 1400 variations? I don’t think so. We have started what will be a 85-95% decline if they recover at all which actually I doubt. I can’t see that bitcon is anything more than a solution looking in vain for a problem.
Turd: When you can predict 12 markets change in direction a week in advance and get them all right, then you can start lying about what I have said in the past. Until then I’m going to call you a liar until you admit you made it up. You want a free market, move to Zimbabwe.
BTW – I agreed with Mr T about the (NAK) (NDM) Northern Dynasty farce and fiasco, and how it gives the industry a black eye. It is these kind of pump jobs that cause other generalist investors to steer clear of the industry, amongst a bevvy of other stories like Bre-X, and more recently Rubi-“con”, New Nadina, West High Yield, and may be happening with Pretium.
We were pretty critical of Northern Dynasty on here and rightly so because it was pie in the sky promotion on a mine that has been stuck for over a decade and has had several rounds of pumps over the years all with the same result – a parabola that rewards those in early (pre-pump) and punishes bag holders that by into the hype. We tried to warn people here a number of times.
We also sited several geologists, including Brent Cook, that felt while it was well endowed as polymetallic, that it would still not get off the ground as an economic mine.
> Just the sheer capex required alone is insane, but the real issue is the public push-back due to environmental issues and the permitting stall for a decade in Alaska.
Katusa, Rule, Casey all pumped this one amongst a number of other promoters, and exited with gains as the plebs bought into the dreamy narrative and got stuck , but it’s pretty clear how it worked out.
Oh….. and then there’s this……
_____________________________________________________________________
EPA maintains restrictions on Alaska’s Pebble Mine project
Jan. 29, 2018
“Northern Dynasty Minerals (NYSEMKT:NAK) -21.5% premarket following a surprise reversal by the EPA that maintains restrictions on the company’s proposed Pebble Mine copper and gold mine project in Alaska’s Bristol Bay region.”
“The Obama administration blocked the proposed mine in 2014 over environmental concerns – particularly a wild salmon spawning area – but last year the EPA started a process to reverse the decision, and NAK then applied for a permit from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.”
“But EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt reversed course late Friday, saying “Until we know the full extent of that risk, those natural resources and world-class fisheries deserve the utmost protection.”
“NAK, whose Pebble Partnership with First Quantum Minerals (OTCPK:FQVLF) seeks to mine 600K tons/year of copper-gold concentrate including 287M lbs./year of copper and 321K oz/year. of gold, says the permitting process will continue.”
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3325993-epa-maintains-restrictions-alaskas-pebble-mine-project
Even if they ever get this thing permitted, which could happen under the Trump administration, then how are they going to raise the money without further diluting their stake in the project or diluting the snot out of any shareholder still left when they have to do the capital raise.
There are hundreds of other Gold & Copper mining stocks that are actually moving their projects forward, and while they might not be a YUGE, that’s actually a good thing as the other smaller projects will actually be moving forward in this metals cycle.
Adam Schif saw his shadow today. He faces six weeks of Very stormy weather!😏
He will be going for Phil’s job ,when this is over…….. 🙂
What about Peter Schif?
He say Janet Yellow’s shadow running out of Dodge! 🙂
Check out Adam Schiff…….on the Q….
I’m not a good technical analyst or even a good stock analyst, just an old guy who has a good memory. I have always used volume as much as price in what calculations I do.
It has been my conviction that stocks in general have been over-priced on average.
Are we in for a correction? Yes.
One word of caution…..OK, I lie…..two words…..DOUBLE TOP.
My belief is that after this very substantial correction, we will have a significant bounce, but this will probably be a double top to a market going into recession for several years until the 2020s as the debt problem is worked on. World governments are sucking up too much money and producing too much debt.
Listen to everyone, but believe few.
Maybe these guys are the space aliens…shape shifting reptillian banksters 🙂
Heck, these morons got kicked out of the space ship……..
Low level…..entertainment for the sheeple…..When they Jail Jamie….then you know it will be for real..
History has also shown that in a free market (In gold has there been one for a century?) that the price of precious metals tend to lag expectations. i.e. only AFTER profitability is ACTUALLY shown will prices of miners rise.
Sure there is volatility, often driven by publicity and stock touts in a thin market, which can hide true value. What I am saying is…..Don’t worry on missing out and feeling you have to move quickly to buy something before it jumps up. You don’t have to move quickly.
It is what you don’t know you don’t know that will get you. Time spent in reconnaissance and learning is never wasted.
It is what you don’t know you don’t know that will get you………AND THAT IS THE TRUTH!
It’s possible today’s smash in SLV is setting up a massive explosion to the upside. Would not want to see SLV drop too far below15.60 or so. This inverse H&S projects to about $18.50 on SLV.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p11239314526&a=575279439&listNum=1
Moron ……..where is his brief case
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-02/greenspan-warns-us-debt-extraordinarily-high
What was his first clue
No big news on the Memo…..already been known for weeks…….
Chris Wallace….said it was 3 pages…….I thought it was suppose to be 4 pages….
Careful shorting the general market. When Hillary and Obama get arrested, we could see a big rally.
Democratic strategist: toughest job in the country.
Cryptocurrencies – Blood in the Streets (February 2, 2018)
by FI Fighter on Feb 2, 2018
A very poignant post from Goldfinger today:
@Goldfinger – “After pleading with a friend of mine to liquidate his $RIPPLE (which had been a ten bagger) at $2.50, he refused, stating “I’ll dump when it gets back above $3.00…” – he’s still waiting and this morning it’s below $1.00. Textbook example of recency bias and greed. Remember, it doesn’t matter where somethings been, it matters where it’s going. It’s good to know what the crowd is doing, but the worst thing you can do is to listen to the crowd ESPECIALLY when there is evidence of a key turning point in a particular market.”
$crypto
Bitcoin drops below key $9,000 level on Coinbase
Evelyn Cheng • February 1, 2018
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-drops-below-key-9-134130312.html
That is EXACTLY how it plays out in every asset class. The sheeple think it’s reasonable to hold just until the market goes where they want it to.
Bingo. I though it illustrated a larger fallacy in investor psychology quite well and was worth posting for the general concept more than this dudes Ripple Slipple…..
I’m sure that the guy mentioned above is not alone in his HODLing error. Even if people think that Bitcoin or Ripple or Ethereum will still make another leg higher, it was at nosebleed levels, and that was when it was time to sell or at least trim back the position. It would have been far better to do that and buy back here than to make a round trip on a profitable position.
I’m sure people did it in Novo Resource, Garibaldi, GT Gold, Aurion Resources, Arizona Silver, etc…..
Heck I’m sure people did the same thing in 2016 where the miners had one of the most epic runs in years but people didn’t trim or reduce that summer when things were so overheated, and watched all their gains evaporate again.
It’s difficult to be an Old Turkey in a volatile sector like Cryptos, Pot Stocks, Mining Stocks, or Biotech, and far better to actively managed ones positions by swing trading around a core positions.
People like to apply the Jesse Livermore technique to everything, but he was investing in the general equities and the equivalent of Blue Chip stocks – not Biotech, Cryptos, 3 times leveraged ETFS, Mining stocks or Pot stocks. There is a big difference as the larger cap companies in the general equities indexes are, by and large “slow and steady and wins the race,” [not up and down by 10-20% on a given day or 40-80% in a 6 month period like these other volatile sectors].
@Goldfinger – “Buy fear. Sell greed. Buy panic. Sell euphoria.”
Ripple’s XRP tumbles below $1 for the 2nd time this year
Graham Rapier • February 1, 2018
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ripple-apos-xrp-tumbles-below-134600895.html
Something tells me that most BC fans still have a topped-off glass of Kool Aid next to them.
🙂
‘The Mother Of All Bubbles And Biggest Bubble in Human History Comes Down Crashing’
Frank Chaparro – 11 minutes ago
“The cryptocurrency markets were awash in a sea of red during early trading Friday — and one economist says we are in the middle of a major crypto-crash.”
“Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Macro Associates, took to Twitter Friday to call the bitcoin bubble “the mother of all bubbles.” His tweet shows bitcoin’s historic run compared to others such as the infamous tulip bulbs.”
“Now bitcoin crashing below 8000, headed towards 7000. Down 60% from the peak, 40% in a month and over 10% today,” he said.
http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-the-mother-of-all-bubbles-is-now-crashing-2018-2
Yes, BC came down the same way it went up – fast. Down 60% in a month is more proof that it was/is a bubble. Gold took more than four years (52 months) to drop 45% following the 2011 top but came down much more like BC back in 1980 (about 50% in 3 months). Gold was no bubble in 2011.
John McAfee – Verified account
5:09 PM – 7 Dec 2017
“Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else.”
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337?lang=en
We all laughed about what a completely absurd and nonsensical statement that was from John McAfee back in December, but it should be noted again what he PROMISED to do if he was wrong and it was a bubble that burst (which it is) or if there was a correction (which there clearly is).
John McAfee better put a bib on before that meal as it is going to get messy.
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/887024683379544065?lang=en
Ya gotta admit thats funny.
What is not funny is pot dumping. lol
Im still guessing its not time for PMs, doldrums are just around the corner, all demand is still being met with available supply.
Sprott is still hollering buy buy buy….thats gotta tell ya sumtin.
This week has been a “sell everything” atmosphere where any of the speculative vehicles got hammered down. The pots were over-inflated just like the cryptos, and the PMs & miners already had a substantial trust up out of the Dec 13h Fed Hike announcement, and edged marginally above the 2017 high, so they needed to cool off as well. Copper and Zinc Stocks also sold down. Lithium stocks have been smashed since the end of last year.
Today and this week has been mostly red across the board, but there have been some notable exceptions that held their ground or rallied in each of these sectors, so it wasn’t all doom and gloom.
These are the weeks when having dry powder to deploy is key. I fired off the rest of mine yesterday and today, positioning for a bounce in some of these sectors next week.
In addition I used this week to clear out a few dogs that I carried forward into 2018, and to trim back a few high fliers, to pick up a few new positions, and to add to the companies that I really like the best if they were on sale.
I’m much happier with my portfolio lineup and the weightings now moving forward, so in a way all this volatility ended up being a good environment to reshuffle the deck.
Why didn’t someone warn us?
Actually someone did. Almost to the day.
CEO Technician: Have you heard of John McAfee?
Bob Moriarty: Of course, he’s a genius.
CEO Technician: Last week McAfee made the following comments… “Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm” and then he tried to top that with the following vanquishing of gold… “Gold is laughable compared to cryptocurrencies. How do you fractionalize gold? How do you ship it? It’s physical so how do you safely store it. It was good for people 3,000 years ago. Today it is inherently worthless. Soon it will drop in value as crypto currencies climb.”
Bob Moriarty: What he’s basically saying in those comments is “This time is different.” He’s wrong, it’s NEVER different this time. You can’t change human behavior. Period. End of story.
CEO Technician: Could his comments on gold be any more well timed given that Bitcoin is at an all-time high and gold has dropped 4-5% in a straight line over the last few weeks? As an investor/trader who has a contrarian mindset McAfee’s comments really stand out.
Bob Moriarty: When a guy with that level of intellect says something as ridiculous as he said last week that’s the sort of stuff that marks a top.
Right now PMs dont seem to be hit too hard, at least not my list.
They’re supposed to be sound companies.
It looks to me that maybe they are out of sellers, people willing to hold long term.
Makes sense, there could be bounces but Im betting another profitable part of the bull begins after summer.
Excluding trading of course. and wars, coups in the U.S. etc
with the Dow at this level……..a 500 point drop is merely a drop in the bucket….when we start to see the Dow ….dropping a couple thousand points…….then you can call it a ….plunge……but at this point…..it merely……drama……….just ask Chris Temple…….he knows what he is talking about…….I believe he too…..will tell you that …..500 points is just a drop in the bucket…..at this level……
yep……even down 630….is on 2.4%…..
not on ……only 2.4%
Right. Nothing to worry about. Just the biggest weekly point drop (1090) in 9 years!
Of course, since I’m not in the conventional market, I’m not worrying!
Way over due……..and everyone knows it…….
What was the Dow 9 yrs ago………and what was the % drop…….
i don’t believe there is anything to worry about anyway….I really believe this is all drama……but in saying that….it is also interesting to watch…..if I am right…I believe on Mon morning…..you will see the drama unfold and the Dow will miraculously come back to life……lol……..but even if am wrong….its still interesting to watch……
It doesn’t have to be a big % drop to be unequivocally bearish — and today’s action was.
Stocks are oversold on intraday charts so I’m sure there will be a bounce just in time to keep hopes alive before the next drop.
The risk/reward picture here says sell first ask questions later.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9VyFj-7OXA
Ira’s Morning.
The drop in the metals is a knee-jerk reaction to the dollar.
This will pass, as people realize that commodities are REAL things.
Bitcoin was also a knee-jerk drop and will bounce back.