Opportunity Knocks… Will Gold Bulls Answer?
I apologize as posting will be a bit light today on the site. I am busy putting together the weekend show which will be mainly market/investing focused this week and next. Plus the response I am getting with questions for Quinton is quite extraordinary. The full interview will be included on our weekend show.
In the meantime here is a straightforward gold chart from our friend Chris Kimble at Kimble Charting Solutions.
…This post was intitally posted at SeeItMarkets. Click here to visit the site.
Gold investors have enjoyed a strong start to 2018.
After a brief pullback into early February, the shiny metal has charged higher once more.
The question now: Is a major breakout on the way for gold and precious metals bulls?
Looking at the chart below, you can see that a strong base has been built in both Gold prices and the XAU Index (Gold and Silver Miners). These bases look very similar and have take a few years to build… so IF both breakout at the same time, it would be rather bullish for precious metals.
This is a big spot for metal heads!
At the same time, Gold bulls need Silver to play along. Silver offers a higher beta and is typically seen as “risk on” when outperforming.
Currently, the Silver/Gold ratio is testing a confluence of price support: its 27-year rising channel and 2003 & 2008 price lows. Bulls need to see this support hold, followed by a strong move to the upside. Stay tuned!
Note that KimbleCharting is offering a 30 day Free trial to See It Market readers. Just send me an email to services@kimblechartingsolutions.com for details to get set up.
Twitter: @KimbleCharting
$silver’s 200 dma has crossed below the 600 dma. Everyone and their mother will be selling silver on any touch of the 200 dma. It’s a very very safe short right here.
This would coincide beautifully with a dramatic breakdown in the silver:gold ratio on the chart in this article. The rise in 2016 was nothing but a blip!
spanky – I wrote you this a few days back:
“If you really believe the miners are heading down, then you can trade your theory “perfectly” and sell your AG, EXK, and AXU today. When everything watefalls down to wherever you think it’s headed then you can buy them all back, or preferably you just throw it all on AMZN, and you’ll then be much happier that you got out of the “utter trash”.
“However, If you actually hold on to your shares when you honestly believe there is that big of a pullback coming, then you don’t have any conviction in your words.”
“Good luck and good trading with exiting your mining positions to avoid the losses in the coming correction.”
>> You wrote back:
“Still have LT capital gains. I am holding until the miners make moon landings.”
**** WTF? If you really have Long Term Capital gains then why are you on here bellyaching on a daily basis about the huge pullback in miners? Why not just cash out and be done with the sector for the win. I’d never base my whole trading strategy on a taking a tax gain, but I think about really maximizing gains and trade regularly and am not a longer term old turkey.
Being an old turkey in the volatile Jr miners would have just made someone roadkill turkey over the last 7 years.
The reason to be following the miners specific charts daily and weekly is trade in and out of them (at least with partial positions around a core holding) or what the heck is the point of your daily commentary and hand wringing ???
spanky I just saw you make your capital gains argument again on yet a different blog and it makes NO SENSE and is completely incongruent with your daily negativity.
If you expect such a large pullback, then just sell, and rebuy later for lower and screw the tax worries.
You’ll save way more money dodging your waterfall declines down, and can repurchase at apparently much lower prices, and THEN ride them all back up and worry about your precious longer term gain taxes at that point.
Also, if you are NOT trading the miners, then why in the world are you obsessing on a daily basis over the ups and downs of the miners. Why don’t you just set it and forget it until 2020 and do something else with your time.
The reason most of us look at the charts each week is because we are in and out of the markets fairly regularly. There is hardly a week that goes by that I’m not trading one of the sectors, PMs, Base Metals, Specialty Metals, Lithium Uranium, Renewables, etc….
I have to call BullChit on your comments because either you are obsessing on a daily basis on markets you are not even trading and haven’t been for years since 2015, or you really bought back then and added a bit once in January and are holding for the moon in 2020.
Either way, this daily charting and pontificating makes 0 sense unless you are actually trading these markets. If you are not trading and looking for good entries and exits then why don’t you do something else with you time?
Why even look at the mining index charts, CRB & GCC commodity charts, or individual mining charts like IPT, AXU, EXK every single day and week with some kind of continuously warped negative outlook (where you are wrong much of the time and those stocks rally after one of your dire warnings)?
None of this makes any sense at all spanky……..
Oh….. Unless your ONLY reason for posting the charts of the more widely followed companies and sectors in here has NOTHING to do with your personal trading, and EVERYTHING to do be with being an irritant on this website. 🙂
There solved it. So if you are not going to trade the markets and actually look at the charts rationally, then why don’t you spare the website all the negativity, and just hold on for a few years and come back and we’ll let you know how it all worked out.
Shhhhhhhh. It will all be over soon…
disturbing
Looking at the chart means nothing, unless you tie EVENTS to the chart…..JMO
The chart should go back at least to 1971….minimum….jmo
Wow, the $HUI may drop below 180 today with the way things are going. Definitely in the next few weeks, if not by Monday morning. Adios.
That XAU chart has formed a huge head and shoulders bottom over the last 5 years. When it breaks above the neckline it could double in a year. I’m not worried about a near term correction although it might be unpleasant.
Once the $XAU drops below $70, you won’t be speaking so confidently, that I can guarantee. $60 is a legit target and goldbugs will be howling by then. Like I said, it is going to be years before 2016 highs are taken out. Hell, lets just make it a decade.
A fall of the XAU to 60 would be a great opportunity to buy.
The 1360 gold cap strikes again. Another failed attempt. That must be the 5th or 6th occasion. Nothing to see here.
Considering the weekly indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics, etc) and where gold closed for the week, I think it’s premature to call it a failed attempt. It returned to 1360 very quickly so to pause just below should not be taken as much of a negative. However, a deeper pullback next week and/or a pause that lasts long enough to harm the bullish look of the indicators should obviously be seen as a clear failure.
So if it breaks out first thing next week without first pulling back to get a running start at the resistance, then today was really just a pause – same as for the dollar.
A failure results in a meaningful pullback and more time before the next attempt.
The September failure resulted in a 9% decline and a 4-5 month delay and the January one resulted in a 4% decline and a 2-3 week delay:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=6&id=p89187223526&a=571126319
Dollar bulls are hanging on by their finger nails:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=3&id=p27979499968&a=557861725
Breakout Appears Imminent – Gold and USD Technical Analysis
TraderStef February 16, 2018
This quote from Charles Nenner on Feb 11th summarizes the macro picture well:
https://crushthestreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Charles-Nenner-Gold-Call.png
Just look at the Dow rip higher. Coincides perfectly with a breakdown in the miners. At a minimum the miners will be sold heading into the March 21 FOMC. 200 DMA for GDX is about a month away from crossing below the 600 DMA. A dramatic move is coming for the miners. With gold nearing multiyear highs, you have to wonder what the miners are telling us. It’s not positive, IMO. Goldbugs to be taught a final lesson the CBs in all likelihood in the next 2 months.