David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 27 Feb, 2018

Comments on GDX, Silver, and Novo

The Junior Miner Junky David Erfle shares his thoughts on some levels to watch for GDX during this pullback. We also discuss silver and a reason why he is more optimistic for this PM over gold. With the vast majority of metals stocks down today Novo closed up over 15%. You bet we have some comments there.

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Dave ErfleCory Fleck
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  1. On February 27, 2018 at 2:14 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On February 27, 2018 at 2:16 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      I seriously doubt , I will ever buy another Apple product………

  2. On February 27, 2018 at 2:32 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    Thanks Cory. Glad to hear the timeline David is hoping for. Wondering how many other analysts/letter writers are looking for the same thing. Let’s hope just a few in order to get the washout that is supposedly needed.

    • On February 27, 2018 at 6:34 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Silverdollar – as far as I’ve noticed almost everyone is in agreement that the metals need one more washout to trigger the buying from Jordan Roy-Byrne, to Doc, to Bob M, to Goldfinger, to Jeff Kerns, and most of the daily commentators Chris T. that see weakness in the cards as the dollar strengthens and PMs sell off.

      I have a JDST position in place as a hedge due to the overwhelming group consensus that metals are still heading lower, right in front of the PDAC (how appropriate that the PDAC curse came early again this year…. just like last year).

      I sure hope everyone is correct, or it’s gonna be one hell of a short squeeze that catches most traders with their pants down around their ankles, waiting for the final washout.

      If we do get the “false breakdown” Jordan was discussing (that matches the other analogs he was looking at that occurred about 18 months after their initial impulse legs higher), then this washout may very well be the trigger to really kick off the next leg of this bull market.

      If traders don’t buy at that corrective move down over the next few months, then there will be little compassion for those that “missed out” on the 2nd great buying opportunity of this metals cycle. (the best being the 2015 low in Gold at $1045.40 and the mid Jan 2016 lows in the miners).

      Personally, I’m fine with my short hedge, but with holding a larger allocation to the miners, that are best set to outperform when the metals do finally take off later this year. Maybe a few more months of pain, before years of gains, but for those that traded the markets in 2016 and 2017 there were a number of tradable rallies to capitalize on.

      When the masses and institutional funds pile on later this year and in 2019 many of the easy gains will have already played out, and all investors have to be is early ahead of the masses. If gold and silver dive down in March & April, hopefully we’ll see posts on here about value investors picking up positions in their favorite stocks.

      Fun times!

      • On February 28, 2018 at 10:19 am,
        Silverdollar says:

        “Maybe a few more months of pain, before years of gains,”. IYO what is the driving factor (factors) that will emerge to provide years of gains?

      • On February 28, 2018 at 10:28 am,
        Mickey Mantle says:

        PLEASE !!!! Let the fun begin 🙂

  3. On February 27, 2018 at 2:43 pm,
    spanky says:

    Yes, washouts are so healthy. Especially at the end of a 20 month downtrend. Nothing could be healthier. The healthiest would be for GDX to move to 0. That way, there will only be upside and the sentiment will be the most bullish in history.

    • On February 27, 2018 at 6:20 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “The healthiest would be for GDX to move to 0.”

      Wow – what a helpful and insightful comment. Thanks !

      • On February 27, 2018 at 7:11 pm,
        Chartster says:

        LOL, they must be putting gold bug repellant in the chemtrails..

  4. On February 27, 2018 at 2:46 pm,
    spanky says:

    The HUI is within a few weeks of its 200 dma crossing below its 600 dma. It doesn’t get any more bullish than that. Textbook bull market.

    Silver’s 200 dma has already crossed below its 600 dma. It’s leading the way in this tremendous new bull market.

    • On February 27, 2018 at 3:46 pm,
      spanky says:

      First target for me is 140-150ish on the HUI.

      We will probably get a vicious bounce in April. The problem is the 200 dma will likely be trending downwards and it will have crossed below the 600 dma. People will be shorting the crap out out it on any strength.

      • On February 27, 2018 at 4:10 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Gann says……..160 HUI

        • On February 27, 2018 at 4:11 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Then look for a triple………

        • On February 27, 2018 at 4:16 pm,
          spanky says:

          We are libel to hit 160 this week! Way too early for a low, IMO. Expect lower lows into the FOMC at least IMO, which is on the 21st. Also, the USD is due for a multiweek/month rally, which will put pressure on metals.

          • On February 27, 2018 at 4:32 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Who, really knows………like Bobby M says…..Nobody knows anything…All guess work…jmo

  5. On February 27, 2018 at 5:53 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    Cory, it looks like you are going to have to re-file! 🙂


    • On February 28, 2018 at 4:46 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      HA,HA,HA………..dang that is a GREAT ONE>>>>>>>

    • On February 28, 2018 at 1:58 pm,
      C Fleck says:

      Haha That’s awesome, thanks Ebolan!

      • On February 28, 2018 at 3:34 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Yes it is. You’re obviously a good CPA! 😉

  6. On February 27, 2018 at 6:14 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Artemis is going ‘super-deep’ to unravel Pilbara secrets with 3300m drill hole

    In its quest to unlock the secrets of the Pilbara, Artemis Resources plans to drill a “super-deep” hole. “This is a very exciting, super-deep hole for Artemis and the drilling of this hole should help answer many questions surrounding the geology and rock sequences in the Pilbara Basin,” executive chairman David Lenigas told investors.


  7. On February 27, 2018 at 6:19 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    ‘Boring’ Gold Giants Struggle to Compete With Hot Battery Metals

    By Danielle Bochove – February 27, 2018

    “Gold producers are doing everything they’re supposed to be doing — squeezing more profit out of mines, penny-pinching on projects and resisting the kind of big deals that got them into trouble when prices fell.”

    “While that’s satisfying their large institutional shareholders, it’s not enough to lure more general investors drawn to flashier electric-vehicle commodities, as well as to stocks riding the marijuana and cryptocurrency booms.”

    “Right now, gold has been so boring and asleep that nobody cares,” David Harquail, chief executive officer of precious-metal royalty and streaming company Franco-Nevada Corp. and chairman of the World Gold Council, said in an interview from the conference in Florida. “It’s the first time, even my schedule isn’t filled.” That tells him, he said, that even though there’s a record turnout, people are off chasing cobalt…”


    • On February 28, 2018 at 7:01 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      another sign the crowd is wrong……the crowd is always wrong 🙂

      • On February 28, 2018 at 10:23 am,
        Mickey Mantle says:


  8. On February 27, 2018 at 7:31 pm,
    Matthew says:

    If the double top competes, the door will be open for gold to retest the December low…


    • On February 28, 2018 at 7:36 am,
      spanky says:

      Classic. It’s all we see in this sector–H&S tops and double tops all over the place.

      It looks like the dollar is set to rally, and I am going to assume the stock market will be at new all time highs in a little while.

      • On February 28, 2018 at 8:32 am,
        Matthew says:

        The door would be open to a retest of the December low but I don’t think it will get anywhere close to it.

        • On February 28, 2018 at 9:03 am,
          spanky says:

          Problem is the miners will be disproportionately punished between now and then. I fully expect GDXJ to take out its Dec. 19 2016 weekly closing price (which happened to mark a black candle on the weekly chart). I think the HUI will likely test or at least marginally break the Dec. 2016 low in the next 2-3 weeks.

          The true tell will be the rebound. If this is truly a bull market, I would expect nothing less than an incredible V-shaped rocket shot a la May 2005.

  9. On February 28, 2018 at 6:56 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  10. On February 28, 2018 at 7:11 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  11. On February 28, 2018 at 8:34 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Youtube blocking info………..

    • On February 28, 2018 at 8:35 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Following up on free speech………..

  12. On February 28, 2018 at 10:20 am,
    Mickey Mantle says:

    RE:Dustin Angelo discusses the Goldboro & Point Rousse Projects

    Great summary of all activities. I especially liked the last piece about M&A….could the Port Dufferin property currently owned by RCG and mentioned in Bob M’s recent report on ANX be in play here? That would be a good acquisition as they (RGC) seem to be struggling. They have a fully permitted mine, mill and recently picked up kilometers of strike length at Port Dufferin. RCG also just happen to be looking for a new CEO – Dustin Angelo as the new CEO perhaps…just me guessing – I have no idea.

    Bulk Sample planned for Goldboro this year…that is good news and will shed some light on the nugget effect that Goldboro is known for (lab assays say X g/t – large samples from the same area say X g/t time a multiplier bigger than 1 (min))

    Regarding the PR this morning where they reported 4.85 g/t gold over 8.5 metres and 4.75 g/t gold over 8.0 metres at Argyle. Those numbers are great and starting to prove the existence of high grade ore shoots at Argyle….the Argyle story is just getting better and so close to the existing mill – awesome. It is nice to have multiple projects ramping up at the same time!

    Once Goldboro hits production ANX will be producing 60,000 ounces per year up from the current 16,000 or so. What will the stock price do….hmmmm.

  13. On February 28, 2018 at 10:32 am,
    CFS says: