Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Fri 3 Aug, 2018

What Happened To The Summer Rally?

Craig Hemke joins me today to address the question of what happened to the summer rally for metals. For over a month we have been waiting for an oversold and low sentiment bounce. Craig also looks at the moves int he Yuan and its relationship with the gold price.

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Craig HemkeCory Fleck
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  1. On August 3, 2018 at 9:51 am,
    CaliJoe says:

    I think summer rally is on a break with Doc somewhere along the Michigan lake. Maybe it will return once the leaves start turning brown.

  2. On August 3, 2018 at 11:21 am,
    Excelsior says:

    I’m not sure why people keep wondering about a Summer rally? From the “Sell in May and go away” period of Spring where things drop off in late May, it morphs into the Summer Doldrums each year in June, July, and early August, and then the metals bounce from mid-August into the strongest month of September.

    > Here is the Gold 40 year Seasonality Chart from (1976-2015)

    [a long period to smooth out noise from bull/bear runs]

    Note that there is typically a Q1 run from Dec tax loss into January and February, followed by a pullback in March (PDAC Curse), and then a sideways to down slog from the “Sell in May and go away” into a low in late July.

    After that in August and moving into September there is seasonally a strong run in the yellow metal.

    • On August 3, 2018 at 11:21 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Looking at 2017 you’ll see a very similar pattern that played out with the rally out of Dec 2016 Tax Loss selling into the #Q1RUN in Jan/Feb, the #PDACCurse in March, the #SummerDoldrums with a low in July, and the August into September rally.

      The Seasonal trading patterns in Gold of 2017 were very clear and as expected, and we discussed these all last year. (despite some mocking seasonality, but then ironically blowing most of their calls using far more elaborate analogs of other time periods, and chart gymnastics).

      Bottom line, investors were well-served that followed the seasonal patterns in 2017.

      • On August 3, 2018 at 11:22 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Now let’s reflect on 2018 in the Gold market so far.

        Well, look at that —-> It is the same seasonality patterns playing out that we saw on the 40 year average, and in 2017 (what a surprise………. no, not really).

        So far we have seen the rally from Dec 2017 tax loss season into the “Q1Run,” the March weakness “PDAC Curse”, followed by a spring fling, and then “Sell in May and go away” into low in July during the #SummerDoldrums….

        Hmmmm – I wonder what typically comes after the July low and Summer Doldrums…. ? (oh yeah, the rally from mid-August into September – stay tuned)

    • On August 3, 2018 at 11:44 am,
      Silverdollar says:

      +1 Let’s remember that September follows August, which has only just begun where I live. 🙂

      • On August 3, 2018 at 1:16 pm,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        O it’s a long, long time from May to December,
        But the days grow short when your reach September,
        And the autumn weather turns the leave to flame,
        One hasn’t got time for the waiting game.
        Buy silver and gold.

        • On August 3, 2018 at 1:24 pm,
          Silverdollar says:

          Not only a gentleman; but a poet as well. 🙂

          • On August 3, 2018 at 5:12 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            +2 You guys are great Silverdollar and Bonzo Barzini !

          • On August 3, 2018 at 8:15 pm,
            Bonzo Barzini says:

            Just go to youtube and listen to “The September Song” sung by Walter Huston or Jimmy Durante and tell me which you like best.

  3. On August 3, 2018 at 2:24 pm,
    David says:

    When you want to suppress the price of gold and you don’t want to think abou it or explain it, tie it to a forex currency relationship. When the yen was tanking to the dollar, tie it to the JPY/USD. When that one ran its course and you are going to start a tariff war with one of your main trading partners, tie it to the CNY/USD and watch gold go down with the the devalued Yuan. What’s a Forex pair have to do with anything other than prove criminality.

    • On August 4, 2018 at 6:36 am,
      GH says:

      David, I know little about forex markets. Could you please explain your understanding of how the gold price can be tied to a forex currency relationship?

      • On August 4, 2018 at 6:38 am,
        GH says:

        As for the proven criminality, I guess you simply mean the constant manipulation that determines the relative value of currencies?