KER Politics – Tue 27 Nov, 2018

The Coalition for a Prosperous America shows that the tariffs are working very well for our economy.

Jeff Ferry, Research Director for The Coalition for a Prosperous America writes:

Dear Al,

Thank you for registering for “New CPA economic model shows how tariffs can create jobs and growth”.

Since the Trump administration first implemented tariffs early this year, there have been a series of forecasts from economists predicting dire consequences from the tariffs: higher prices, corporate bankruptcies, declines in GDP, and hundreds of thousands of lost jobs. Those forecasts have all been wrong, not just in magnitude, but directionally. Instead of losses, the US economy has added jobs and seen GDP grow faster than at any time in years.

The CPA Economics team has modified a standard economic model, using actual economic results rather than assumptions, to produce an upgraded and corrected model of the impact of trade intervention on the US economy. In this webinar we explain what’s wrong with standard trade models, describe the improvements in our model, and then apply our model to the steel tariff. We find that the steel tariff, in combination with other federal government economic policies, helps drive a 2.1 million increase in jobs in the US economy in 2018.

Attend this webinar to hear CPA Research Director Jeff Ferry and Senior Economist Steven Byers discuss their work and how economic modeling should be improved to better reflect the real economy.

Jeff Ferry

  1. On November 27, 2018 at 2:08 pm,
    CFS says:

    That is short term thinking above.

    In the long term the inflation caused will dampen growth so that penalties out -weigh benefits.
    Just wait until Steel and Aluminum tariffs are truly reflected in automobile price increases.

  2. On November 27, 2018 at 6:59 pm,
    CFS says:

    Considering rampant intellectual property theft, technology transfer, unfair restricted access to Chinese markets, lack of respect for intl rules and norms – I think Mr Xi is getting, at last, a minimum appropriate response from the US. He may offer to buy more natural gas and propose more market access to US firms, or buy more agricultural products, but not address the fundamental incompatibility of the two political economies — the Communist ideology of that regime, the nationalist, authoritarian, unrespecting of liberal freedoms or the ideology that makes the United States a great country. Xi overextended himself in his hubris to say that China could become the global hegemon, and that trade and international values that inform international institutions could be converted over to a Chinese model in a relatively short period of time. Within the Communist Party, concern is that if he makes too many concessions he’ll look weak, or not enough and the Chinese economy will take a worse and worse hit. Xi thinks the US is in decline and China will assume global economic power with the Belt and Road program, and the norms that govern international behavior will change from the current norms that inform the IMF, and World Bank, and UN, and the WTO, to ones that Mr Xi defines as the common destiny of Mankind, which really means the Chinese destiny of Mankind with everything passing through Beijing. If he succeeds in the Belt and Road program and forces poorer countries to take loans they cannot repay, there could be a lot of resentment against the Chinese state, similar to the resentment often displayed against the US. The speed at which he proceeds will be critical and may cause a serious conflict between China and the other Asian countries combined with the US in the South China Seas.
    I believe the rate at which Xi is proceeding will be too fast not to produce conflict, and it may well be that many African and South American countries will turn away from support for China.