David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 11 Dec, 2018

Large Cap Gold Stocks Are Showing Strength… Is That A Sign For The Broad PMs?

David Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky looks at how gold is fairing versus the USD and how large cap gold stocks are moving higher. It is very important to see the majors garnering a buy and bouncing after the summer selloff. If this continues it is one of the most bullish signs for general metals stocks.

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Comments:
  1. On December 11, 2018 at 11:53 am,
    Matthew says:

    Yes, it is a good sign that I pointed out three days ago:
    On December 8, 2018 at 11:41 am,
    Matthew says:
    GDXJ closed precisely at the 89 day MA while GDX has been above it since Monday. This discrepancy is not bearish as the seniors always lead the major turns.
    http://schrts.co/YJMYDP

    • On December 11, 2018 at 11:54 am,
      Matthew says:

      On December 8, 2018 at 11:53 am,
      Matthew says:
      GDX led GDXJ in 2016 as well. It finished the third week following the bear market low at +37% while GDXJ finished it at +29%
      http://schrts.co/8vYsez

    • On December 11, 2018 at 11:57 am,
      Matthew says:

      There’s a lot of time left in this month but the monthly XAU chart currently looks very promising:
      http://schrts.co/cjYs4k

      • On December 11, 2018 at 12:09 pm,
        Matthew says:

        XAU priced in gold looks almost as good but needs to rise almost 20% to achieve an important breakout (I am confident that it will):
        http://schrts.co/6cp4Z9

    • On December 11, 2018 at 9:48 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Matthew – Agreed, and it is refreshing to see someone talking common sense on here.

      As has been discussed over and over for years, when things turn in the Precious Metals it usually starts with Gold and the larger producers first, then this drags Silver and the Jr Miners along with them for the ride, and finally Silver and the Juniors out perform Gold and the Majors.

      It makes no sense that at the turn so many PM pundits are looking for Silver the Jrs to be leading the pack. It also doesn’t make as much sense that there is so much trash talking of staying clear of producers and focusing on explorers, exactly because the first place for the turn is where institutional money will flow ahead of retail (Gold/Majors).

      It’s like this at most of the turns we’ve seen and we must have discussed the bullwhip analogy on here a few dozen times.

      Here it is again for anyone reading that has the eyes to see it (and then act accordingly).

      When a sector gets going it is often the “BullWhip process,” where the larger market cap #Producers move first, then the advanced #Developers near #production ratchet higher, and then the #Explorers that hit pay-dirt explode higher leaving the rest in the dust at the tip of the whip.

      https://media.giphy.com/media/b5ujszyZhfZS0/giphy.gif

  2. On December 11, 2018 at 12:14 pm,
    Matthew says:
  3. On December 11, 2018 at 12:22 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The current low is nothing like those of the last 2.5 years and I am betting that it will lead to a doubling of the XAU:
    http://schrts.co/7FN6id

  4. On December 12, 2018 at 9:18 am,
    Charles says:

    I am liking the looks of Kootenay Silver today.

    • On December 12, 2018 at 10:19 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes sir. Kootenay Silver has represented good value for a while now based on the size of their deposits and economics, and big boy partners.

      • On December 12, 2018 at 10:47 am,
        Matthew says:

        It is a very good value and has a great risk-reward profile.
        http://schrts.co/Pk4TDE

  5. On December 12, 2018 at 11:54 am,
    Charles says:

    Thanks guys and great chart Matthew. I have had those two trend lines on my radar for a while. I am hoping it stays between those two trendline for a while and builds a bigger base to springboard off of. Of course I wouldn’t be opposed to a bit more of a bounce!