Hour 1 – Metals and Markets, A Look Into 2019
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As we inch closer to the end of a crazy 2018 the US markets continued the selloff this week and metals remained boring in a good way. In this weekend’s show I spend the first two segments with a focus on the resource sector and some opportunities outside of just the precious metals. As for the markets we take a macro look at what is going on and how bad it could get in 2019.
If you did not visit the site or podcast throughout the week please take some time to listen to the segments that interest you. There were a number of company interviews and comments on markets and metals that are worth your time. Also please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1: Matthew Zabloski, Founder of Delbrook Capital kicks off the show by sharing some of the metals that he thinks have positive fundamentals that the market is ignoring.
- Segment 2: The Independent Speculator Lobo Tiggre weights in on the Evrim drill results that drove the stock way down and his general comments on prospect generators.
- Segment 3: Nicholas Pardini, Founder of the Davos Investment Group is back with comments on how the new IPOs of Uber and Lyft are telling us about the macro picture for the financial markets.
- Segment 4: Trader Vic wraps up the first hour with a rant on US politics and what is truly driving the markets.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
Segment 1
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Segment 2
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Segment 3
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Segment 4
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Trader Vic always has something to say and he says it well. I hope we hear more from him in the coming year.
If/when the Fed raises interest rates next week, this could precipitate the market collapse and trigger the start of a major commodity bull market.
As people pull out of the stock market, where else is a good location for money?
I believe people will move to real assets.
History informs us that precious metals rise mostly AFTER the decline in stockmarkets have occured, not during the decline.
(Wise money waits until the falling knife hits the floor before grasping it.)
With India and Canada no longer raising interest rates, and with the huge US debt, one wonders how much more the US can raise interest rates.
The probability of 4 rate rises next year in the US is now ttending towards zero.
House prices are flattening….significant interest rate rises would collapse the market.
Automobile purchases are flat…..Again interest rate rises would collapse this market.
House prices have been over inflated for 10 yrs……….
Autos are over inflated, as well as parts………the bmw, menz , people could not afford pretending they were rich, ,,,,the credit has finally caught up with the fools………
Seg 4…………
Trader V…….is spot on……….great comment, but, I have been saying this forever……Govt is corrupt……..TERM LIMITS PERIOD, and some Jail Time will serve the
“WE THE PEOPLE”
He, He,……….Obama Care Unconstitutional , good wake up call America sheeple.
I have saying the same thing about the Clinton’s since they left office..
on a salary of $400,000……..how did they leave with a trust of $125Million
Maybe H is still trading commodities………..
or was it cattle futures?
cattle……….she likes beef jerky…….. 🙂
Obamy Crash and Burn………Barry S…….needs to be taken to the wood shed….
The Jerk, has caused a lot of pain, for a lot of people,…
Since the end of October, we’ve had two modest rallies so a third one isn’t out of the question if enough shorts get somewhat trapped. I differ with the trader on his interest rate pause. I feel there will be one on the 19th and a pause will come later in mid 2019 after possibly one more raise, depending on market indigestion. On the 19th, they have to keep up pretense, no matter how much trump screams. JMO
If you go to Trading Economics under commodities you will see that an ounce of Palladium has surpassed that of Gold.
Palladium $1237.60
Gold $1235.15
Platinum at $788 is looking super cheap.
Rick Rule Investing “Know-Who” with Ross Beaty, Part 2
By Remy Blaire – Sprott Media on – December 14, 2018
“Gold is being watched like a hawk as volatility extends its topsy-turvy ride through the global equity markets. The price action for the precious metal has been lackluster despite the wild swings in the stock market. With gold slowly edging higher but not advancing at a rapid pace, the safe-haven metal appears range-bound for now.”
“The steady upward trend in equity prices came to a screeching halt in 2018 as asset prices stumbled and wavered throughout the quarters. Triple-digit moves to the upside and downside ceased to cause euphoria or illicit excessive hand wringing from investors.”
“The big question remains: has the next bull cycle for gold kicked off? If you ask Rick Rule, president & CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings or established resource investor, Ross Beaty, they would emphasize the importance of recognizing the bottom of the market rather than fretting over the timing of the next bull cycle…”
https://ceo.ca/@sprottmedia/rick-rule-investing-know-who-with-ross-beaty-part-2
The Palisade Blog – Our highlights from 2018
“As contrarian investors – we constantly have to ask ourselves if we have conducted enough research and analysis to determine which markets or metals – over the next few years – will bring us the most profits. Let’s take a look.”
“A better question might be to ask if what we are witnessing today is simply a long period of consolidation that will finally be resolved in 2019? And once resolved, will the metals and the mining equities give us an obvious move upward?”
“We believe a bull move is on the horizon – but time will tell.”
https://ceo.ca/@palisaderadio/the-palisade-blog-14th-december-2018-our-highlights-from-2018
Call Me Crazy But I’m An Optimist
by @Goldfinger on December 14, 2018
“I’ve seen some pretty remarkable things over the last couple of months, whether it be the percentage losses in certain names like GTT, or the Bridgemark Scandal, or people calling for the end of the TSX-V. This is the sort of stuff that one tends to see near major bottoms. But after a year like this how can anyone have any confidence in being invested in any junior resource stock?”
“Moreover, even in this awful year of 2018 there have been plenty of opportunities for big trading gains if you played your cards extremely well. This isn’t a buy and hold sector….”
“Call me crazy or whatever other names you’d like to call me but i’m an optimist. Not a blind foolish optimist, but an optimist nonetheless. I am optimistic on the precious metals and junior mining sectors heading into 2019. From the ashes of 2018 we can generate the fertile soil for a great year ahead.”
Crazy? Optimism is the sanest stance right here – at LEAST medium to long term.
Agreed. I’m optimistic medium to longer term as well, but can’t tell anymore if I’m crazy or sane, and just go with it…. 😮
I think the short term is probably good, too, but probably not the immediate short term; the days before the Fed. 🤑🧐
THE MILKSHAKE TRADE IS FINISHED
2018-12-12 – Kevin Muir – the MacroTourist
“The world’s financial landscape inspires little confidence. Brexit, French riots, slumping German banks, Chinese slowdown, emerging market carnage – none of these things scream it’s time to venture out the risk curve.”
“Raising rates from this point will not cause a positive feedback loop, but rather only exacerbate the problems. Capital no longer rushes in to America chasing stocks because everyone is already long.”
“And the real problem is that these flows over the past year have caused the Federal Reserve to be tighter than would otherwise be the case. Don’t forget that the real reason Powell was so hawkish in that October 3rd speech was because markets were loosening financial conditions regardless of the Fed’s actions.”
“Well, what if the economy proves more resilient to the recent rate hikes? Then Powell might indeed raise rates and cause the US dollar to rally. This argument I will accept, but let me ask you something – what do you think that a stronger economy (with corresponding tighter monetary policy) does to both the yield curve and stocks? My guess is that the yield curve inverts, stocks sag, and sure, the US dollar rises, but it’s no longer a virtuous rise.”
“Here is my prediction; US stocks might rise, but only if the greenback falls. The US dollar might rally, but it will snuff out the stock market rally. The days of them both going up together are over. The milkshake glass is empty.”
Psychedelics, Ferraris and Art: An Alternative Investment Guide
Opportunities for those with big fortunes and bold tastes.
By Suzanne Woolley – December 14, 2018,
“When money and connections mean you can invest in just about anything, anywhere and over any time frame, what winds up in your portfolio?”
“Yes, the rich are buffeted by the same forces affecting everyone else: rising rates, trade wars and global populism. But in the rarefied world of ultra-high-net-worth investors, diversification doesn’t mean index funds or assembling a standard stock/bond/cash mix.”
“With prospects for equities uncertain, Bloomberg canvassed wealthy investors and advisers to find unusual opportunities in 2019 open to those with big fortunes and a taste for the exotic. Following is a sampling of the possibilities.”
Ira Epstein’s Metals Video (12/14/2018)
Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Global Equities Sell-Off Spills Over to U.S. Markets
Gary Wagner – December 14, 2018 #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #Video
https://thegoldforecast.com/video/global-equities-sell-spills-over-us-markets
Senior Gold Stocks: The Rally Accelerates
Morris Hubbartt – Dec 14, 2018 – Super Force #PreciousMetals #Video #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold & Oil Price Update #VIDEO #Charts #TechnicalAnalysis
iGold Advisor – Christopher Aaron – Dec 13, 2018
Recent earthquakes near Anchorage have fueled new doubts about N.Dynasty {Pebble} tailings pond design.
Coincidentally Ralph Andersen has authored an article in the Anchorage Daily News promoting Bristol Bay open for business, not the mining business.
Ever since Mt Polely,every mining project is a Mt Polley and nothing could be further from the truth. Those in Bristol Bay that “Have Theirs” want to hang on to it, and I can’t say I blame them.
June I did a visit to the Iliamna area to take a look for myself.It was encouraging for me to see that Pebble was active with three helicopters flying.
I still contend that mining can co-exist with fish no matter at what level.
The Pebble project would be one of the best things to have ever happened to Bristol Bay since God put the Salmon there. Mind you,God also put the Gold and Copper there also.The day will come when Pebble or for that matter somebody else mines the Copper and Gold. The question is, is that day now or is that day when Fukashima radioactivity kills all the fish? With that being said I am still pro Nuclear Energy https://www.adn.com/opinions/2018/12/15/pebbles-earthquake-design-is-sound-permitting-will-validate-it/ar
I too am pro nuclear energy, Snowbird.
Here are some of the popular names from 2018 in Jr Miners that had narratives around their Gold exploration. Many had nice percentage pops at one point during the year, but most dropped on a large percentage as well:
$NVO $ADZ $BAY $ABN $MED $AU $TIG $HVG $JUGR $JAX
Here is a static shot of the chart if anyone has challenges with stockcharts.
(On the prior chart above you can click on the colored line to highlight a particular company)
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1e1d5cb-Popular%202018%20Gold%20Stocks%20Pt%201.JPG
Here is a second batch of the popular names from 2018 in Jr Miners that had narratives around their Gold exploration.
Many had even larger percentage pops at one point during the year, but majority also dropped on the other side of the parabolic moves on a large percentage as the speculative interest & volume came back out.
$RNX $GBR $GLDN $PAC $GTT $SIC $WHN $SIR $EVM $NRG
Here is a static shot of the 2nd chart if anyone has challenges with stockcharts.
(On the prior 2nd chart above you can click on the colored lines to highlight a particular company)
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1e1d6j3-popular%202018%20Gold%20Stocks%20Pt%202.JPG
Thanks for the weekend show guys as always.
cheers Skeeta
Thanks Guys. Hi Skeeta.