Minimize

Welcome!

After the Fed Pause Look What Happened To Gold and Bonds

Cory
February 7, 2019

Craig Hemke joins me to outline what has happened in gold and bonds after the Fed went on pause. He takes a shot at me for being too pessimistic… Which I totally understand but we have been in a long drawn out bottoming process.

Click here to visit Craig’s site for more PM focused commentary.

Discussion
33 Comments
    Feb 07, 2019 07:20 PM

    FWIW: Gann Global is still in a wait and see mode with PMs. They actually see a slight possibility that we could have a lower low in Gold and perhaps not finish that trend until a year from now. Not a pleasant video to watch.
    IMO it still depends on NY markets. If they stay elevated, we on pages such as this ought to go skiing and later get back into fishing.

    Feb 07, 2019 07:29 PM

    Barring a 40 dollar collapse between now and next Friday, $gold should hold above $1270 through August.

    If it were to complete crap the bed next week, like say drop $60 or 70 by Friday close, all bets are off.

    Feb 07, 2019 07:37 PM

    “Slight” is the key word………….Gann Report…….has all kinds of Predictions……and most have been faulty. or not come to pass……..just another guru, lost in high weeds….imo
    I think Matthew is closer in his predictions, than the historical record.
    Historical data…..going back 100 yrs……while under the control of the cabal…..lol
    Gann report, is looking for something historical..but,,,,, we have nothing like what we have today..there never was QE ,and ZIRP.interest rates at zero, so how do you compare a
    historical chart to that.
    I going with Bob’s comment…..”nobody knows anything”.
    But, Bob, did mention he liked the Gann Report………Just saying.
    JMO………..with no facts……………………..LOL

      Feb 07, 2019 07:40 PM

      Gold will let go when , the London gig is up………..and everyone figures out…..the 500 to 1 paper gold , is not deliverable gold………….jmo

      Feb 07, 2019 07:49 PM

      Charts are like a Ouija board, you never know where they will take you…….lol

      Feb 07, 2019 07:00 PM

      The biggest disconnect are commodities. They have been punished beyond the pale. And it looks like it is not over yet. Like I said a year or two ago, they could be basing for years and years yet–that is how much technical damage was inflicted on them between 2011 and 2015. They did an absolute number on the complex.

      I am going to go out on a very pessimistic limb and say that GCC won’t break above its 2016 peak until 2021 or later. At that point, you should have the 300 and 400 week MAs finally caught down to the range they have been trapped in for the last 3 years.

        Feb 07, 2019 07:12 PM

        Obviously, gold has been punished, for a reason, which has been described a 1000 times, on the KER. …..So, your guess is as good as anyone’s

          Feb 07, 2019 07:15 PM

          London will tell you when and where…….putting gold in as a commodity is a JOKE…..
          Crimex, is alive and working well in the USof A…..

          Feb 07, 2019 07:15 PM

          Well gold has held up by far the best of an commodity over the last 20 years. And it is still spanking the Dow and S&P over that period too. So there is that.

          It’s just trying to speculate and actually get rich off of this god forsaken sector that gets you into trouble. gold itself is a completely different animal.

            Feb 07, 2019 07:25 PM

            spanky…..you do not have to convince me……..I am J the Long……..
            I mentioned years ago……..gold has returned over 9% , since 71……
            I am a LONG TERM HOLDER……

            Feb 07, 2019 07:28 PM

            Hard to get rich, on something that is manipulated, ……by a small group of people., ie London sets the price……what a joke…..

            Feb 07, 2019 07:29 PM

            But, Long term….it will keep up with INFLATION>….

    Feb 07, 2019 07:49 PM

    USD looks as bullish as can be on every time frame. It could be going a lot higher.

    It worked off a sky high MACD over the last few months by going sideways to slightly down. MACD is now back to neutral levels and is ready to make another run higher all while price has basically gone no where. That is textbook bullish consolidation.

    Feb 07, 2019 07:08 PM

    If you were the Fed, an unauditable entity with unlimited funds, would you ever want commodities outperforming the stock market after having thrown everything and the kitchen sink to lift the market post 2008? Wouldn’t you just strategically sell the crap out of commodity futures or key currencies at inflection points in coordination with other central banks? The banksters know that if commodities run wild, the pitch forks and guillotines will be headed their way.

    Feb 07, 2019 07:12 PM

    At this point I see my mining shares as nothing but long dated call options that could very well expire out of the money.

    I now find it impossible to see a world where they make consistently higher highs. I just don’t think it will be allowed to happen. I obviously know that some day they have to do that, but I just can’t see it.

    Feb 07, 2019 07:15 PM

    The XAU was already overbought when it reached obvious important downtrend resistance a week ago. So the struggle there since is no surprise. Under the circumstances, many bulls would have joined the bears in selling or at least delaying buying.
    http://schrts.co/GIJFuBXR

      Feb 07, 2019 07:24 PM

      In a vacuum, the gold and gold miners look fine.

      It’s just the silver miners, commodities and the USD that are strongly suggesting that optimism could be very misplaced. Even silver isn’t out of the woods yet, and given its tendency to track the larger commodity complex, it could head downhill in a flash. I don’t think this is at all going to play out like 2016. It already isn’t–the silver miners are telling us that. Maybe they make up all of the underperformance tomorrow by rocketing up 20%. Or more likely not.

        Feb 07, 2019 07:48 PM

        If gold holds up, silver will hold up. Silver tracks gold much more closely than anything else.
        I agree that it won’t be a repeat of 2016; that was a once in a generation move – at best.

        Silver still looks better now than it did then.
        http://schrts.co/kxmkRUBJ

    Feb 07, 2019 07:20 PM

    Gold looking good going into Friday……….China, will be off holiday, so the yanking around should be complete. But, with that said……….nobody knows anything, including me…lol

    Feb 07, 2019 07:00 PM

    Get on the waiting list for Free stock market trading on ABRA for 2019.

    Check this out – you can now use bitcoin to invest in stocks and ETFs from anywhere in the world. sign up now to reserve zero-fee trading for 2019!

    http://www.abra.com/eq?kid=W932W

    Feb 07, 2019 07:57 PM

    OMG he was telling people to buy when gold was 1800 OZ, scammer!

    Feb 08, 2019 08:32 AM

    Oh My,………Cortez, and Montezoomy Nobrain, and she went to Boston College…..must have a lot of safe spaces in the dorm rooms at BC. What an Idiot………..
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-08/how-ocasio-cortezs-green-new-deal-almost-imploded-its-first-day

      Feb 08, 2019 08:35 AM

      Someone said, she was thinking of running rail, to Hawaii ……..over the ocean….

        Feb 08, 2019 08:36 AM

        Must be light rail,………lol…………lights out in her frontal cortex……

    Feb 08, 2019 08:41 AM

    UUP weekly bollinger bands are getting very narrow and will likely narrow even further. This is going to set up a massive move eventually, up or down. It may take 6 months to ultimately play out, but a massive move is coming within that time frame I am guessing. For example, price may drift upwards for 6 months in a narrow range before reversing lower.

    Feb 08, 2019 08:51 AM

    The slv:$spx and gld:$spx daily charts are looking good so far today.

    Gld:$spx managed to pop back into the cloud today after falling beneath it days ago. Let’s hope that it can hold there into the close. It’s a positive sign for sure so far. Hope I haven’t jinxed it.

    Feb 08, 2019 08:53 AM

    I think silver’s fate hinges entirely on the SLV:GLD ratio holding up over the next couple of weeks. I don’t even care if silver goes down in absolute terms as long as it doesn’t go down as much as gold.

    Feb 08, 2019 08:05 AM

    GDX hangs onto its daily chart “buy” after backtesting fork resistance-turned-support…
    http://schrts.co/UfPEGcYy

    Feb 08, 2019 08:25 AM

    I am probably not going to rest easy until SLV breaks through its weekly Ichimoku cloud. Once it does that I will feel much more confident that it is in a strong bull trend.

    It’s possible gold trends sideways for a long time above its weekly cloud while silver trends below its cloud. I really hope that is not how this plays out.

    Feb 08, 2019 08:31 AM

    Using 60,3,6 parameters for the weekly stochastics suggests that gold and especially silver and silver miners have the potential to run higher yet. Especially silver and silver miners. while using those parameters doesn’t give you much sense of direction week to week (you could conceivably get 4 down weeks in a row for example and still have the stochastics pointed up), it does give you a sense of the overall trend and the potential to keep running higher.

      Feb 08, 2019 08:36 AM

      The $XAU weekly stochastics using these parameters looks especially convincing that a very very significant low was struck in September ’18.

      Feb 08, 2019 08:49 AM

      My three stochastics suggest the same thing…
      http://schrts.co/xVwqrjcq

      Feb 08, 2019 08:13 AM

      Btw & fwiw, a comparison:
      http://schrts.co/JqyVamsq
      (Your 60,3,6 is new to me and might be better in other ways.)