Short Term trading Thoughts For The Metals Markets
Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders outlines how he is trading the moves up in gold and gold stocks. While still medium term bullish Chris is seeing an opportunity to hedge some gains with a play on the short side. Overall Chris thinks that we are still in a hot sector type of play.
The XAU is overbought and at resistance but I still think it is going higher…
http://schrts.co/GAMKZIUu
The HUI is above the 600 day EMA for the first time in over a year…
http://schrts.co/wICFRIxP
Copper wants to follow gold here. I’m really hoping all the commodities push each other up now. Palladium is just insane though..
I said palladium could easily add another $100 when it spiked a month ago and now it has done so. Too bad I am not benefiting from it!
Copper looks great and is breaking out on high volume:
http://schrts.co/EfHvSZau
From Bob Moriarty this morning on palladium: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty022019.html
Now I agree. A top is probably very close to occurring.
Hemke has some interesting thoughts on Palladium also. If his potential event works out, one doesn’t want to be short Palladium. Just sayin’
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1550690655.php
Notice that I said “A” top is probably close, not “THE” top.
I pointed out the P&F price objective of $2,300 a month ago and it just might get there. BUT, I’d be very surprised if it doesn’t break hard, first. I don’t follow Hemke but I get the feeling he doesn’t have any use for charts.
The “BOB” indicator…..is a better indicator than 99% of all indicators….
JMO.
We dont want no stinky gold, british style
https://youtu.be/75XCLTeKzBk
Ever since 2013, I’ve thought about the idea of a reverse crash in gold, but basically wrote it off. Primarily because I have learned over the years that the adage that stocks take the escalator up but the elevator down is absolutely true. Stocks simply go up differently than they go down. I put this down to the emotion of fear being greater than greed, and the use of leverage and the phenomena of margin calls.
It just depends on whether the sector is in a bull market or a bear market. Since the beginning of 2016, the miners have taken the elevator up and the escalator down.
SILJ is a great example of that:
http://schrts.co/RNXemChJ
GCC small inverse head and shoulders on the daily chart looks good. As I have been spiting for months now, my primary concern is the weekly Ichimoku cloud, that will likely put a cap on any upside for most of the year. Is it possible it gets through the flat topped cloud in the first half of the year? Yes, but the odds are massively stacked against that IMO.
AG is actually poking up through the weekly Ichimoku cloud today. The key will be if it can stay above the 6.75 level by the close on Friday! IPT and EXK are more or less in the same exact boat with respect to cloud resistance. Exciting stuff.
IPT would need a close over 41 cents to achieve complete cloud penetration.
There’s a little more resistance for IPT just above that:
http://schrts.co/gbwKKqjG
IPT should break above the 200 and 300 WMAs prior to their crossing, just like AXU and GDX did. IPT could drag its feet for a little longer though as that cross is potentially still many weeks away.
$hui:gdx continues to look bullish, which is supportive of the whole sector. Much more upside potential here. It is just coming off the lows.
Slv:gld daily chart looking good. cloud structure looks good. Assuming slv has bottomed vs gld, this daily chart is extremely bullish for the silver miners.
SILJ:SPY H&S bottom looks great:
http://schrts.co/hXgQWRXp
Silver is close to the 600 day EMA and has exceeded its January high (chart will update this evening):
http://schrts.co/nCqgWYnf
Hi Matthew, what do you think of MO now? After falling to 42.5 it finally got back over 50 today. And BTI fell to 30 and is now back over 37 today.
Hi Bonzo, both look good but MO is much more appealing if you’re going to buy one of them today for a short term trade.
BTI:
http://schrts.co/MITzvTfS
MO could gain 15% relatively quickly from here…
http://schrts.co/kkrmMaUC
Thanks, Matthew. I came to the same conclusion this morning. I was hoping MO would form a right shoulder @46 of a H&S bottom, but when it broke over 50 I went ahead and bought more, raising my average cost to $49. If it does drop to 46 I’ll buy more.
And of course release of the FOMC minutes is an excuse to sell metals. I suppose they were pushing it anyway technically. Slv:gld now printing an ugly reversal candle. Whatever.
Minutes state Fed will end balance sheet run off by end of year. Wow. The metals should be rocketing higher on this IMO. But it’s being treated as “sell the news.” Same old BS.
No way this news should have been built into the price of gold. But whatever. I guess JPM et al. knew about this months ago.
It’s a blip. “Someone” hits gold whenever any Fed-related news is released to try to give credibility to their actions.
Give credibility……..as we know, there is NO credibility to a CENTRAL BANK…..
People really have to be really stupid at this point to even think one associated with a Central Bank can give any creditable statement.
Run up and smack……..I think , I am getting the hang of this…..
Central Banks smack down…….fun and games……with a bunch of perverts running things..
Some positive news for NAK today.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/northern-dynasty-us-army-corps-194100229.html
With respect to technical health, the gold explorers are leading the sector higher.
The 200/233 week MAs turned up for GOEX 18 months ago…
http://schrts.co/RBRMeEDs