Gold and Gold Stocks – Fundamentals and Technicals Looking Ahead

April 29, 2019

Doc is back and we discuss the overall fundamental view of the US and global economies. We also dive into the charts of GDx and gold for an update on the ranges Doc sees for most of the year.

    Apr 29, 2019 29:26 AM

    I posted this over the weekend…

    – Downturn Has Just Begun; Recession Remains in Play, With FOMC-Generated Financial Stresses Still Diminishing Consumer Activity
    – Consumer Controls 72% of GDP, but Generated Only 22% of GDP Growth
    – Advance First-Quarter Real GDP Gain of 3.17% Topped Consensus Forecasts, Strengthened Against 2.17% in the Fourth-Quarter, Yet the Numbers Were of Unusually Poor Quality
    – Bureau of Economic Analysis Is Hamstrung by Data-Quality Issues Tied to Underlying Government Shutdown Reporting Disruptions and Distortions
    – Only Two Months of the First-Quarter Trade Deficit Were Available, Where Initial Quarterly GDP Estimates Usually Are Based on Three Months
    – That Two-Month Quarterly Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply, Signaling a Great Recession Style Collapse in Personal Consumption; That Deficit Guess Was the Largest Single Positive Contribution to First-Quarter GDP Growth
    – Positive Impact of the Deficit Narrowing Should Have Been Offset by an Even Greater Decline in Goods Consumption, Which Dropped Sharply, But Not Enough
    – Three Months of Likely Downside Revisions to First-Quarter GDP Follow, Into the July 26th GDP Benchmarking
    – Broad Money Supply Velocity Slowed in First-Quarter 2019, Suggestive of a Slowing Economy
    “Bullet Edition No. 7”

    Notice in the report only 2 months were figured in the report on GDP rather than 3….

      Apr 29, 2019 29:28 AM

      ABOVE is FROM JOHN WILLIAMS ……shadow stats…..can been seen at jsmineset.

        Apr 29, 2019 29:44 PM

        Doc mentioned inventories; on the one side it is sales by wholesalers. Great. But much of the buildup is because those buyers couldn’t move the product and when one sees consumer spending decreasing, it will all be adjusted next quarter.

      Apr 29, 2019 29:22 PM

      Although the inflation number used was dubious, the GDP growth was good, because the Federal Government was shut down for part of the period.
      Government spending is INCLUDED in GDP. (I think erroneously) But the facts are the facts.

    Apr 29, 2019 29:39 AM

    Thanks for the thoughts DOC>>>>>>

    Apr 29, 2019 29:36 AM

    The precious metals are all experiencing moderate to strongly higher pricing today. The net result is a strong weekly gain for gold and palladium, and fractional moves in silver and platinum. Although both silver and platinum had solid gains on the day, on a weekly basis silver gained approximately five cents and platinum lost approximately two dollars.

    Higher pricing today was aided by tailwinds provided by dollar weakness, and hindered by strong economic data and gains across the board in U.S. equities. The U.S. dollar index lost 0.16% today, and after trading to 98.08 profit taking took the index back below that level and closed at 97.76.

    U.S. equities as expressed through the major indices all contained small and measured gains. On a weekly basis the NASDAQ composite closed just off of its high this week, and as of 4:08 PM Eastern standard time is still settling but currently fixed at 8131.17 which is a net gain of over 12 points on the day. But most importantly is the highest weekly finish in history. Considering that the index hit a low of 6200 in December of last year, the NASDAQ has gained almost 2000 points since then.

      Apr 29, 2019 29:37 AM

      April 26, 2019 – 6:48pm
      by Gary Wagner

    Apr 29, 2019 29:57 AM

    More Doc, please. He is telling me what I want to hear. I would like to buy more miners this summer.

    Apr 29, 2019 29:47 PM

    Great chart, The combined value of the stock and bond markets as a percentage of GDP, from Jesse Felder:

    As the comments under the chart, the implications of the chart aren’t as obvious as they might seem at first blush.

      Apr 29, 2019 29:04 PM

      Interesting chart, but….
      Is it implying an over-valuation of the stock market and Bonds, as would seem to be the case?

      First I would suggest nothing is gained by adding the two valuations together.
      The stock market represents the value of businesses.
      The bond market represent the value of debt.

      Clearly BOTH are dependent on interest rates.
      But for different reasons.
      The bond market is directly inversely dependent on interest rates.
      The stock market is inversely dependent on interest rates for TWO reasons.
      1. Business can expand and grow faster on lower interest rates.
      2. Money that might have gone into bonds gets diverted to high earning potential when interest rates drop.

      Nevertheless ultimately there is a tendency to return to the mean.

    Apr 29, 2019 29:11 PM

    lower range until last quarter of 2020?
    Then they decide which way they are going?

    Sounds like another good time to buy.
    We could get a move higher if the fed lowers rates.
    Jorden has been saying the same thing for some time, makes sense.

    Makes sense yet as Cory points out last time gold went for a firdip.

    Still, gold has beaten the sp500 since 2000.

    A great time to buy should be the doldrums, now that has some history.

    Good to hear from Doc, as always.

    Apr 29, 2019 29:34 PM
      Apr 29, 2019 29:36 PM

      A stronger market and very high savings.
      Kinda dif from most people havnt got $1000 cash living paycheck to paycheck that we keep reading about.

      Apr 29, 2019 29:19 PM

      Booming on Healthcare?
      Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, surged 0.9 percent. That was the biggest rise since August 2009 and was also driven by increased healthcare expenditures.

      Apr 29, 2019 29:24 PM

      Consumer spending increased at a 1.2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, the slowest in a year.

    Apr 29, 2019 29:03 PM

    Ira’s metals

    The real drop today was in Palladium

      Apr 29, 2019 29:39 PM

      Wonder if, O Barry, will be whining when they slap the handcuffs on his boyfriend Michael …a he and a she(not)maybe…

    Apr 29, 2019 29:58 PM
    Apr 29, 2019 29:26 PM
    Apr 29, 2019 29:43 PM

    Now some light entertainment from media “experts”.

    Apr 29, 2019 29:44 PM

    This is the real world……and this is how quick you can say good bye to your savings….

      Apr 29, 2019 29:46 PM

      SEC Bars Hedge Fund Manager Who Lost 88% Of His Clients’ Money In Three Days
      This guy is no exception….nobody knows anything, the Fed, and banksters are front running and everyone else is in the dark…….JMO

    Apr 29, 2019 29:44 PM
    Apr 29, 2019 29:50 PM

    7:14p ET Monday, April 20, 2019

    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

    The decline of the monetary reserves of central banks since August 2004 suggests a consensus that the U.S. dollar’s role as the world reserve currency is coming to an end because the United States now consistently produces far less than it consumes from the rest of the world.

    That’s what Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, writes tonight, elaborating that the IOUs being created by the U.S. government increasingly are being used by foreign governments to purchase gold, a monetary asset without such counterparty risk.

    Apr 30, 2019 30:17 AM

    Eskay Creek, formerly the world’s highest-grade gold mine, may be headed for a re-start due to very promising exploration work completed by Skeena Resources (TSX.V: SKE). Jonathan Roth sits down with Skeena’s CEO Walter Coles, Jr. and Skeena’s VP of Communications Kelly Earle to discuss the company’s discoveries, what the next steps are, and why investors should be paying attention.

    Apr 30, 2019 30:56 AM

    /VIX…if today close is above the 50 ema at 14.99 it is first time since 3/22 which was not yet the intermediate top!

    Apr 30, 2019 30:07 AM

    RSP and QQEW…are equal weighted etf’f…They are still holding up better and so the sell off is narrow and limited to the generals of the market…so far……

    Apr 30, 2019 30:16 AM

    Last week I misspoke and said gold cycle was 27 weeks. I meant to say we topped on week 27 and in the past, a top that late was often followed by 8-9 weeks of selling at most. That is how I came up with the week of April 22 as marking the low. That is a 36 week cycle, which is long, but in line with historical cycles, especially during the early stages of the last bull run in 2000.

      Apr 30, 2019 30:07 AM

      Yup, I got a weekly cycle low in gold happening around late June to early July. It should be a great time to load up.

    Apr 30, 2019 30:43 AM

    Crazy how housing mortgage starts and consumer confidence keep getting stronger…crazy chit these numbers are!

      Apr 30, 2019 30:50 AM

      Fake numbers everywhere……….people are just moving from one side of the country to the other….Chicago, LA, NY,….moving exiting ..
      Mult million dollar houses are rolling over……tax break no more…..

    Apr 30, 2019 30:45 AM

    maybe this intermediate cycle top just expreses its self as a shallow profit takers event and we do get higher highs in 2020?

    Apr 30, 2019 30:50 AM

    /Es..what i am trying to say is that a normal intermediate cycle top by definition breaks below the price of at least one prior trading cycle low…the previous trading cycle low was 2789.50 dated 3/25…….man that is a lonng ways down…seems hard to imagine, right?!

    Apr 30, 2019 30:00 AM

    long UCLE

    Apr 30, 2019 30:18 PM

    /ES short via spxs…in retrospect will a fail in AAPL be the trigger for this intermediate top?…Wish i kcanoe