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Hour 1 – Making Sense Of The Increased Volatility Across The Board

Cory
June 8, 2019

It was a crazy week for investors. Money flew into US markets, gold and bonds all on the back of weak US data and rate cut expectations screaming higher. We discuss all these topics as well as look into the cannabis space trying to make light of all the new companies.

The show this week is packed with extended segments. There was so much to cover I didn’t want to cut any of our guest short. I hope you all enjoy and have a great weekend!

  • Segment 1 – Rick Bensignor, Founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies joins me for a full recap on US markets, bonds, the USD, and gold.
  • Segment 2 – Trader Vic weighs in on the politcal nature of the markets and the Fed. Plus how to trade the volatility.
  • Segment 3 – Sean Brodrick who just launched the Marijuana Millionaire Portfolio answers some questions on how to isolate the good cannabis companies from the growing herd.
  • Segment 4 – A new guest to the show Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital explains how he has managed a successful resource fund during the bear market.

It was a slow week on the company interviews side of things but watch next week when I introduce a couple companies outside of the resource sector. Plus I will be chatting with Ivan Bebek (Auryn Resources) and Quinton Hennigh (Novo Resources), so please send in your questions – Fleck@kereport.com.


Rick Bensignor
Trader Vic Sperandeo
Sean Brodrick
Matt Geiger
Discussion
85 Comments
    cfs
    Jun 08, 2019 08:00 AM

    Great show today. Great week.

    cfs
    Jun 08, 2019 08:22 AM

    Re: Seg. 2:
    Trump has already tweeted no Mexico tariffs, pending results of Mexican troops on its southern border.

    I just wish Trump had thought of this option a year ago.
    We still have the problem of Mexicans wanting to come into the US, and I heard there will be over 100,000 anchor babies born this year in the U.S., so the problem is not really solved. It never will be solved until the U.S. law is changed with regard to anchor babies.

    Jun 08, 2019 08:59 AM

    Thanks for having Trader Vic back. Nice to hear he thinks gold and silver are the best bargains now.

    Jun 08, 2019 08:31 AM

    An other KER five star education!…Thank you for these huge efforts

    Jun 08, 2019 08:44 AM

    Trader Vic……..always a good listen. Got to be one of the sharpest tools in the shed from where many of your guests come from Cory. Thanks.

      Jun 08, 2019 08:15 AM

      Agreed – Great weekend show full of thought-provoking guests as per usual.

      Thanks to Cory, Big Al, and all the KER contributors. Ever Upward!

        Jun 08, 2019 08:36 PM

        P.S. – Really glad to hear Matt Geiger on this weekend’s show. I’ve been following his interviews on Palisade Radio for some time and value his insights on the commodities markets, and in particular on Gold/Silver and Uranium stocks. Good stuff!

    Jun 08, 2019 08:51 AM

    Great interviews. Especially enlightening to hear Trader Vic’s excellent analysis. Should have him on more often.

    Jun 08, 2019 08:34 AM

    Now that Gold is starting to climb again near overhead resistance, we are hearing more nonsense again about Gold having been in a 6 year downtrend and with lower highs from $1392 down as their evidence.

    This position has serious flaws and is completely ignoring the fact that Gold put in it’s Major Bottom back in December of 2015 @ $1045.40. Period.

    That Major Low in December of 2015 was where the worm turned.

    This Major low is the point to start measuring the new cycle from, and there have been higher lows since $1045.40 without ever coming back down and threatening that pivot point and major layer of support.

    The other glaring point those pushing the “lower highs since $1392…” narrative, is that not only did the major low happen later in Dec 2015, but the initial impulse leg up coming out of late 2015 and into the 2016 surge up to $1377.50 , took out a series of resistance prior peaks, and key moving averages. That wasn’t a dead-cat bounce or counter-trend rally — That was a new impulse leg higher — a Wave 1 in a new cycle in the new bull market.

    That major inflection point at $1045.40 is where most technicians worth their salt will start measuring from, and we’ve seen higher lows and Gold bumping it’s head on overhead resistance about $200-$300 above that level ever since then, which is far more bullish than bearish.

    Gold is now roughly $33 from taking out the $1377.50 peak from 2016 and making a higher high, which will definitely prove that the yellow metal has been in a new bull market since Dec 2015 and put all this lower high nonsense to rest once and for good.

    http://schrts.co/AHyCbfFr

        Jun 08, 2019 08:50 PM

        Lots of good stuff going on here including a weekly MACD buy signal on the largest volume in a year. (I said months ago that the 600 week MA is very important and the recent move toward it (not TO it) and away from it shows that’s the case.)
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57106858684&a=648869421

          Jun 08, 2019 08:09 PM

          Great Charts Matthew. Yes, you’ve been on it regarding following the 600 week MA, and it has been interesting to monitor how things have unfolded. Thanks!

            Jun 08, 2019 08:32 PM

            I’m curious to see if the freshly bullish weekly chart forces gold higher immediately despite its daily chart overbought RSI. For those who doubt it, gold was slightly more overbought on February 5th, 2016 than it is right now yet it still gained another $90 in the next 4 days of trading:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2015-10-23&en=2016-10-22&id=p36514996233&a=669739914

            Jun 08, 2019 08:35 PM

            IPT still hasn’t confirmed the sector’s moves but that can change quickly as we both know:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p85678148232

            Jun 08, 2019 08:42 PM

            It is possible that with the Mexico tariff off the table, that things calm down next week and Gold recedes a bit, but it still may surprise folks to the upside this Summer.

            Yes, as for the IPT indicator, I’ll be watching to for a little more action and response from the miners, but so far it has been very muted overall. A few of the mid-tier and smaller producers I hold had a little movement, but most of the developers and explorers are sideways to even down despite Gold’s resilience.

            I’d like to see more of an uptick in Silver but it hasn’t signaled it’s really starting to move yet, so that is a cause for pause that the sector momentum hasn’t really started yet.

            If the miners and Silver start to play catch up and start to outperform more days then it would give a bit more energy to the move.

            Short term a little pullback, that resets a day or two would be nice to consolidation to have another pop higher and see where that goes, and if the miners and Silver play ball with that move.

            Jun 08, 2019 08:56 PM

            I recently said that silver would outperform gold and catch up quickly once gold becomes overbought. Well now it’s overbought and the silver-gold ratio suggests that I might be right. We’ll probably find out this week.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p09420776899

            Jun 08, 2019 08:47 PM
            Jun 08, 2019 08:55 PM

            Glenn gets it 😮

            Jun 08, 2019 08:04 PM

            haha! 😉

            Jun 08, 2019 08:11 PM

            🤘😣

    Jun 08, 2019 08:53 PM

    Gold and U.S. Equities Continue Their Weeklong Rally

    Gary Wagner – June 7, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #VIDEO

    https://thegoldforecast.com/video/gold-and-us-equities-continue-their-weeklong-rally

      Jun 08, 2019 08:05 PM

      Post Employment Report Update

      June 7, 2019 – Smart Money Tracker #Charts #VIDEO

      http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2019/06/post-employment-report-update.html

        Jun 08, 2019 08:04 PM

        Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (6/7/2019)

        Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAj867ZDxcQ

          Jun 08, 2019 08:35 PM

          Gold Price Update: What Now?

          iGold Advisor – Jun 5, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #VIDEO

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zupk5NUa1GA

            Jun 08, 2019 08:23 PM

            Thanks for this post, Excelsior!
            It was objective, honest, correct and unpopular.
            Chris Aaron is someone I agree with in the gold space.

            I do think (and hope) the washout he’s talking about is coming real soon, and won’t last as long as he thinks.

            Jun 08, 2019 08:44 PM

            Glad to share Chartster. He’s a sharp guy, and is exercising a word of caution in the space due to the divergence of the mining share performance to the metals price, and admitted it may not be a popular stance for him to adopt.

            Personally, I’m not in complete agreement with his stance, but respect his analysis, and like looking at things from different vantage points. His video had a sobering warning, and was more bearish for the medium term, and if he’s correct we’ll have to react accordingly. Personally I’m a bit more optimistic medium term especially late summer into fall, but it’s a wacky world out there right now, so I’m prepared that things may devolve a bit more first.

            Jun 08, 2019 08:07 PM

            Like Chris Aaron’s hypothesis, I’ve always believed the dog miners need to be washed-out to pave the way for a more forgiving market that helps all of us investors.
            I just wish it would hurry up and happen already. I think this big move up will pave the way for the wash. By late summer and into early fall I’m hoping for some nice moves.

            Jun 08, 2019 08:08 PM

            He thinks gold could go hundreds of dollars higher from here but that the miners will still not break above the 2016 lows. That is extremely unlikely barring some kind of big and horrifying event.
            If we make it through June without this thing falling apart, I think we’ll have a bull market on our hands that will be obvious to everyone.

            Jun 08, 2019 08:19 PM

            Yea, I doubt gold is going much higher here. In fact, it should start going down next week and for the next month or two.

            Specs are record longs right now and commercials are records shorts. Commercials typically win that battle.
            Not to mention that UGLY GLD chart.

            Jun 08, 2019 08:23 PM

            Agreed Matthew. I’m not sure that Gold could go that much higher without the miners bouncing back and getting peppy. I’m pretty constructive for Gold making it above the 2016 high of $1377.50 and taking aim higher later this year. I could also see more pressure on the US Dollar later in the year.

            If things get wild though, I prepared for more volatility, but am mostly fully invested in the miners from positions taken and traded around over the last 3 years. If it gets wild I’ll reduce some exposure, but am prepared to hold through any short-term dips, for the medium-term rips.

            Jun 08, 2019 08:28 PM

            Chartster – I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gold pull back next week or even for a few weeks going into the Summer Doldrums, but seasonally late July through September is a more bullish period of buying in the metals, so that is when Gold could make it’s move.

            This latest move higher seems to be losing some momentum and with the Mexico tariff issue being resolved may soften up some of the safe haven buying for the near term. If Gold just keeps plowing higher though, it isn’t going to hurt my feelings or my portfolio. 🙂

            Jun 08, 2019 08:57 PM

            Other than being overbought on the daily chart, GLD is nothing but pretty…
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p26029497601&a=617903125

    Jun 08, 2019 08:48 PM

    Second half of audio upload to Apple podcasts is messed up. Good show regardless.

    Jun 08, 2019 08:53 PM

    I think the odds favor more short term upside for the miners versus gold:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p83936609045&a=669747186

    Jun 08, 2019 08:27 PM

    Gold is up about 5% over the last 2 weeks while GDX is up about 11%. This is unimpressive leverage. Additionally, gold has made a new ytd high while GDX has not. This might be cause for concern but the divergence could be due to safe haven demand for gold and risk aversion spilling over into gold stocks due to the negative picture/sentiment for conventional stocks.

      Jun 08, 2019 08:51 PM

      There did seem to be safe haven buying of gold in relation to other asset classes, where there was also some interest in the larger companies that would be found in GDX. Some of it could have been due to the trade tensions the US has with China and Mexico, and central bank blather about possibly needing to cut rates sooner rather than later. It may not have enough cause for investors to really go in more unless the general stock markets or the dollar struggles further.

        Jun 09, 2019 09:56 AM

        Gold Breaks Through

        Gold Money – June 9, 2019

        “This week has seen a dramatic extension of a rally in gold which started in earnest on 30 May. In the seven trading sessions since the 29 May, the gold price has risen over $50 to trade at $1333 in European trade today (Friday). Silver has lagged gold, rising 45 cents over the same time-scale to $14.87.”

        “Behind the move is an official acceptance that the American and European economies are stalling, and that central banks stand ready to ease monetary policy. I have been warning that a combination of Trump’s trade tariffs and the end of the credit cycle is potentially the most serious economic crisis since the 1929-1932 Wall Street Crash. That possibility is revealing itself.”

        “The next chart, of the US 10-year Treasury bond yield sums up the deflationary forces.”

        https://thedailycoin.org/2019/06/09/gold-breaks-through/

    Jun 08, 2019 08:00 PM

    RNC Minerals does it again at Beta Hunt
    Trish Saywell – June 6, 2019

    “RNC Minerals (TSX: RNX) has discovered an estimated 987 ounces of gold in 238 kilograms of rock from a series of veins on the 16 level of its Beta Hunt mine, just 25 metres below its Father’s Day Vein discovery on the 15 level, which it announced in September 2018.”

    https://www.northernminer.com/news/rnc-minerals-does-it-again-at-beta-hunt/1003807159/

    Jun 08, 2019 08:06 PM

    Battery Shortages Are Already A Problem, And Electric Car Waiting Lists Are Becoming The Norm

    Jun. 8, 2019 – Matt Bohlsen

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4269216-battery-shortages-already-problem-electric-car-waiting-lists-becoming-norm

    Jun 09, 2019 09:21 AM

    Nice to hear that we might actually get to hear some specific pot company names in the future. I mean really why not just say the names. That big pot store where Mike Tysons brand is on the shelves is Planet 13 in Vegas. Sales are increasing every month and soon the cafe will be open and the laws will be changed so product can be used at the stores lounges. Yes Planet 13 is a buy in my imaginary newsletter. So are oil extraction plays like Valens Groworks and pure spec oil extraction play Nextleaf On the branding side Cresco Labs(after their takeout of Origin House) ,Plus Products and on the vaping side little known Slang.

        Jun 09, 2019 09:15 AM

        Wolfster – I’m looking at some of these pot stocks and just not sure if it is an investor frenzied bubble or if certain quality companies deserve the share price they currently boast.

        For example: Planet 13 (that you mentioned) has a market cap of $379 Million currently, so it’s hard for me to feel conviction in pulling the trigger on a new position when it has such a “high” valuation already.

        Is $379 Million a fair value for the company? is it worth more? or worth less? How does one properly value a pot stock like this which is already sitting at 1/3 of a Billion dollars?

          Jun 09, 2019 09:53 AM

          Another one you’ve mentioned in the past is Harvest Health & Recreation, but they have a $2.43 Billion valuation. Is that fair? inflated? undervalued?

          These just seem really frothy to me, but I’m not quite sure how to size them up, and realize the madness of crowds can drive valuations to levels that are illogical for longer than many realize.

          What concerns me is that after the ecstasy…. then there is the laundry….

            Jun 09, 2019 09:10 AM

            Same comments and concerns on Cresco Labs with an $886 Million valuation.

            Is it that valuable already? Is it a fair valuation? Is that over-valued? Is there still opportunity for it to go much higher?

            Jun 09, 2019 09:01 PM

            I’m sure there companies missing on this #PotStocks list, so if folks think of more, then please post them below.

            >> #Cannabis / #Marijuana / #CBD Stocks

            (ABCN) – ABcann Global Corp
            (ACB) (ACBFF) – Aurora Cannabis Inc.
            (ACG) (ALGWF) – Alliance Growers Corp
            (ACRG-U) (ACRGF) – Acreage Holdings Inc
            (AHG) – Alternate Health Corp
            (ALEF) (ALEAF) – Aleafia Health Inc
            (AMMJ) – American Cannabis Company, Inc
            (APHA) – Aphria Inc.
            (APP) – Global Cannabis Applications Corp
            (ARNA) – Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc
            (ASP) – Acerus Pharmaceuticals
            (ATT) – Abattis Bioceuticals Corp.
            (AXIM) – AXIM Biotechnologies
            (BAMM) – Body and Mind Inc.
            (BBT) (BHHKF) – Benchmark Botanicals Inc
            (BE) (BLEVF) – BeLeave Inc
            (BILZ) – Ignite International Brands Ltd
            (BLO) – Cannabix Technologies Inc.
            (BUZZ) (LMLLF) – Aura Health Inc.
            (CANN) – Heritage Cannabis Holdings Corp / General Cannabis
            (CBDS) – Cannabis Sativa Inc
            (CBW) – Cannabis Wheaton Income Corp
            (CGOC) – Cannabis Growth Opportunity Corp
            (CANN) – General Cannabis Corp
            (CALI.CN) – FinCanna
            (CHOO) – Choom Holdings Inc.
            (CHV) – Canadian House Wellness Group Inc
            (CL) (CRLBF) – Cresco Labs Inc
            (CMED) (CMMDF) – CanniMed Therapeutics Inc
            (CNAB) United Cannabis Corp
            (CNBX) – Cannabics Pharmaceuticals Inc
            (CPH) – Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc
            (CRBP) – Corbus Pharmaceuticals Holdings
            (CRON) – Cronos Group Inc
            (CROP) – Crop Infrastructure Corp
            (CRZ.CN) (CNNRF) – CannaRoyalty
            (CWEB) (CWBHF) – Charlottes Web Holdings Inc
            (DIGP) – DigiPath Inc
            (DOJA) – Doja Cannabis Company Ltd
            (EASY) – Speakeasy Cannabis Club Ltd.
            (EAT) (SPLIF) – Nutritional High International Inc
            (EMC) – Emblem Corp
            (EMH) (EMHTF) – Emerald Health Therapeutics Inc
            (ENW) (NWVCF)- Enwave Corporation
            (EPIC) Leviathan Cannabis Group Inc
            (EVIO) – EVIO Inc.
            (FFT.CN) (FFRMF) – Future Farm Technologies
            (FIRE) – The Supreme Cannabis Co Inc
            (FONE) (FLOOF) – Flower One Holdings Inc.
            (FUAPH) – Fundamental Applications Corp
            (GBLX) – GrowBlox Sciences Inc
            (GENE) – Invictus MD Strategies Corp
            (GHG) Global Hemp Group Inc
            (GLH) (GLDFF) – Golden Leaf Holdings
            (GLLA) – Gilla Inc.
            (GIMA) – GIMA TT [still private]
            (GRWG) – GrowGeneration
            (GTEC) GTEC Holdings Ltd
            (GTII) (GTBIF) – Green Thumb Industries Inc
            (GWPH) – GW Pharmaceuticals Plc
            (HARV) (HRVSF) – Harvest Health & Recreation Inc
            (HC) High Hampton Holdings Corp
            (HEMP) Hempco Food and Fiber Inc
            (HEXO) The Hydropothecary Corp
            (HIKU) Hiku Brands Co Ltd
            (HIP) Newstrike Resources Ltd
            (HMMJ) Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF
            (HS) – HealthSpace Data Systems Ltd
            (HUGE) – FSD Pharma Inc
            (HVT) (HRVOF) – Harvest One Cannabis Inc
            (HYG) (HYGS) – Hydrogenics Corp
            (IAN) – iAnthus Capital Holdings Inc
            (ICC) – ICC Labs
            (IIPR) – Innovative Industrial Properties
            (IAN) (ITHUF) – iAnthus Capital Holdings Inc
            (IMH) (IVITF) – Invictus MD Strategies Corp
            (IN) – InMed Pharmaceuticals
            (INSY) – INSYS Therapeutics Inc
            (ISOL) – Isodiol International Inc
            (JUJU) – International Cannabrands Inc
            (KALY) – Kalytera Therapeutics Inc
            (KHRN) – Khiron Life Sciences Corp
            (KSHB) – Kush Bottles
            (LDS) (LDSYF) – Lifestyle Delivery Systems
            (LEAF ) – MedReleaf Corp
            (LG) – LGC Capital Ltd
            (LHS) (LHSIF) – Liberty Health Sciences Inc
            (LIB) – Liberty Leaf Holdings Inc
            (LXX) – Lexaria Bioscience Corp
            (MARI) (MRRCF) – Maricann Group Inc
            (MCIG) mCig Inc
            (MCOA) – Marijuana Company of America, Inc
            (MDCL) – Medicine Man Technologies
            (MDM) (MRPHF) – Marapharm Ventures
            (META) – National Access Cannabis Corp
            (MGW) ( MGWFF) – Maple Leaf Green World Inc
            (MJN ) – Cronos Group Inc
            (MJNA) – Medical Marijuana Inc
            (MLZ) (MEDIF) – MediPharm Labs Corp
            (MMEN) – Medmen Enterprises Inc
            (MMJ) – Matica Enterprises Inc
            (MPX) (BCC) – MPX Bioceutical Corp
            (MRMD) – Marimed
            (MYM) – MYM Neutraceuticals Inc
            (N) (NXTTF) – Namaste Technologies Inc
            (NBEV) – New Age Beverages Corp
            (NEPT) – Neptune Wellness Solutions Inc.
            (NDVA) – Indiva Ltd
            (NINE) – Delta 9 Cannabis Inc
            (NMUS) – Nemus Bioscience Inc
            (NSHS) – Nanosphere Health Sciences
            (NSP) – Naturally Splendid Enterprises Ltd
            (OGI) – OrganiGram Holdings Inc
            (OH) (ORHOF) – Origin House
            (OILS) – Nextleaf Solutions Ltd
            (OWCP) – OWC Pharmaceutical Research Corp
            (PHOT) – Growlife Inc
            (PLTH) (PLNHF) – Planet 13 Holdings
            (PUF) – Weed Points Loyalty Inc
            (PURE) – Pure Global Cannabis Inc
            (PVOT) – Pivot Pharmaceuticals Inc
            (QCA) – Quinsam Captial Corp
            (QCC) – Quadron Cannatech Corp
            (RIV) (CNPOF) – Canopy Rivers Inc
            (RKS) – Rockshield Capital Corp
            (RLSC) – Rise Life Science Corp
            (RQB) (RVVQF) – Ravenquest Biomed Inc
            (RTI) – Radient Technologies Inc
            (RVV) – Revive Therapeutics Inc
            (SCYB) – Scythian Bioscienes Corp
            (SEED) – Evolve Marijuana ETF
            (SING) – SinglePoint Inc
            (SLNG) (SLGWF) – Slang Worldwide Inc
            (SLTK) – Solis Tek Inc
            (SNN) – Sunniva Inc
            (SPR) – Sproutly Canada, Inc
            (SUGR) (RLLRF) – SugarBud Craft Growers Corp
            (TCAN) – Transcanna Holdings Inc
            (TER) – Terrascend Corp
            (TGIF) (TGIFF) – Friday Night Inc
            (TGOD) (TGODF) – The Green Organic Dutchman Holdings Ltd
            (THC) – THC Biomed International Ltd
            (THCX) – The Hydropothecary Corp
            (TLRY) – Tilray, Inc
            (TNY) (TNYBF) – The Tinley Beverage Co Inc
            (TPB) – Turning Point Brands Inc
            (TRST) (CTST) – CannTrust Holdings Inc
            (TRTC) – Terra Tech Corp
            (TRUL) (TCNNF) – Trulieve Cannabis Corp
            (VAPE) – VAPE Holdings Inc
            (VFF) Village Farms Internation Inc
            (VGW) – Valens Groworks Corp
            (VIDA) – PhiVida Holdings Inc
            (VIR) – Viridium Pacific Group Ltd
            (VIVO) – VIVO Cannabis Inc
            (VRT) – Veritas Pharma Inc
            (WEED) – Canopy Growth Corp
            (WMD) (WDDMF) – WeedMD Inc
            (XLY) – Auxly Cannabis Group Inc
            (XXII) – 22nd Century Group Inc
            (ZDPY) – Zoned Properties Inc

            Jun 09, 2019 09:08 PM

            Well Ex on a valuation basis a lot of them do seem overvalued no doubt. Although the US plays like Harvest and Cresco could be termed undervalued when compared to their Canadian counterparts like Canopy….the issue is what is their valuations when the banking legislation gets passed…..Planet 13 has revenue of $5M/month and growing. When the next phase is completed and legislation is passed for use at the stores one would expect numbers to grow even more and they become quite profitable. Yes you are really paying for 2020 outlooks already….remember most of the MSO plays in the US are not growers. They are not adversely affected by the cheaper supplies that will be coming from Columbia. Companies like Slang have minimized costs with their company structure/plan.They have warrants that have to be exercised by June 28 which have created a nice buying opportunity imo…..all said it’s definitely a market you need to stay nimble in

            Valuations in hot sectors always become difficult to decide if they are overvalued.

            Jun 09, 2019 09:28 PM

            CEO.ca Weekly Wrap – A Fast Track To Production, A Behind The Curve Fed, And Multi-Year Resistance In Gold

            by @Goldfinger on 9 Jun 2019

            $BBB $BNCH $MAI $RNX #Fed #Gold

            https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/ceoca-weekly-wrap-a-fast-track-to-production-a-behind-the-curve-fed-and-multi-year-resistance-in-gold

            Jun 09, 2019 09:13 PM

            Thanks Wolfster. Yes, the valuations in almost every pot stock I looked up blew my mind, because I’m used to looking at $10M-$50M companies or $100M- $250M companies and when it gets up into the $300M-$1B+ companies they are normally quite substantial operations.

            In the pot stocks these $300M-$1.5B valuations just seem to be par for the course.

            Yes agreed, that once a sector gets overvalued it is hard to know how long they’ll keep climbing to nosebleed levels or even how to properly value opportunities. It was the very same during the Lithium & Cobalt bubbles, and the Cryto bubbles of recent years. People were just throwing money at a sector without really doing deep dives on the companies they purchased. They just needed to be “IN” that space, and jumped on the hottest trend.

            It is definitely possible to make some good returns during the frenzy inflating bubble phase, but then there is the inevitable bubble pop and thinning down of the deal jumpers to the few legitimate players. My concern is that we may be at that stage where many are called but few are chosen; where there is the culling of the herd.

            Jun 09, 2019 09:50 PM

            Don’t know what’s going on but I’ve tried twice already to post the cantech website for cannabis which when you scroll through it has lots of write ups on all the pots with valuations given

            Jun 09, 2019 09:55 PM

            Guess you have to find it on your own…every time I put the link in the post doesn’t appear….it’s worth it tho. Lots of good analyst write ups

            Jun 10, 2019 10:48 AM

            Got it. I’ll check out the Cantech website. Thanks for the heads up.

      Jun 09, 2019 09:07 AM

      Margin Debt and the Market: Up 2.56% MoM

      by Jill Mislinski, (6/4/19)

      “Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.”

      “The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today’s dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator. At the 1997 start date, we were well into the Boomer Bull Market that began in 1982 and approaching the start of the Tech Bubble that shaped investor sentiment during the second half of the decade. The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak.”

      “Debt hit a trough in February 2009, a month before the March market bottom. It then began another major cycle of increases…”

      https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/06/04/margin-debt-and-the-market-up-2-56-mom

        Jun 09, 2019 09:08 AM

        Oops. I meant to post this further down, but alas…. there it is…

    Jun 09, 2019 09:28 AM

    And yes the producers in pot are at a huge disadvantage to their Colombian counterparts who can deliver pot for costs at around 90% less

      Jun 09, 2019 09:48 AM

      It seems like it is the value-add margins from processing into edibles, vapes, beverages, etc… that gives certain companies more of an edge, over just another grower competing with South American growers that can produce at much lower costs. I’ll check into a few of the ideas you listed above, but have heard of Planet 13 before. Thanks Wolfster for your insights in this sector.

    Jun 09, 2019 09:53 PM

    The USDX vs gold just put in its lowest weekly close in over a year and is ugly…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77744305498&a=613061187

    Jun 09, 2019 09:12 PM

    Interesting sell-off in both gold and silver this morning. This seems like classic hedging post weekend news which was mostly global economy negative. It does however not bode well as it only further solidifies “that” area of resistance gold cannot seem to break.