Weekend Show – Sat 6 Jul, 2019

Hour 1 – Breaking Down The Long Term Trends That Are Key For Investors

Full Hour

For a shortened and broken up trading week there were some key events. A new ECB President was selected, Christine Lagarde; US jobs data surprised to the upside; and markets across the board remain volatile. We discuss all of these topics on this week’s show as well as get insights on some junior metals stocks that have drill programs either staring up soon or already underway.

Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com. I love hearing form all of you!

Have a great weekend everyone!

  • Segment 1: Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group shares his thoughts on low and negative interest rates around the world and the currency wars that are only going to increase.
  • Segment 2: Chris Temple wraps up the market moves for the week and recaps the announcement of the new ECB head as well as the US jobs data on Friday.
  • Segment 3: John Kaiser joins me to address why the junior resource stocks are still largely being ignored. He also shares a stock that he will be watching over the coming months.
  • Segment 4: Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital Fund discusses what he thinks would happen to the US Dollar and a wide range of commodities if a trade deal between the US and China is reached. He also outlines three stocks he likes in the junior space.

Peter Boockvar
Chris Temple
John Kaiser
Matt Geiger

Comments:
  1. On July 6, 2019 at 7:00 am,
    b says:

    Good show Cory thx

  2. On July 6, 2019 at 7:38 am,
    larry says:

    KER rocks…every American should study this site

    • On July 6, 2019 at 9:13 am,
      Excelsior says:

      +1 – Agreed that the KER rocks…. Thanks Cory & Big Al and to all the contributors.

      The KER has a global audience, much larger than just Americans, and there are quite a few Canadians, Europeans, Asians, and Australian investors that pop on here from time to time to share ideas and feed their minds.

      Cheers!

      • On July 7, 2019 at 10:11 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Ker has rocked for a long time……….

        • On July 7, 2019 at 10:13 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Only possible with the contribution of others that support the site………jmo

  3. On July 6, 2019 at 9:13 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold bull Mobius says every portfolio needs at least 10%

    Bloomberg News | July 4, 2019

    “Veteran investor Mark Mobius says that gold’s set to push higher, potentially topping $1,500 an ounce, as interest rates head lower, central banks extend purchases, and uncertainty surrounding geopolitics and cryptocurrencies fans demand.

    “I love gold,” Mobius, who set up Mobius Capital Partners LLP last year after three decades at Franklin Templeton Investments, said in an interview in Singapore, adding bullion should always form part of a portfolio, with a holding of at least 10%. “As these interest rates come down, where do you go?”

    https://www.mining.com/web/gold-bull-mobius-says-every-portfolio-needs-at-least-10/

    • On July 6, 2019 at 9:45 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Goldmember – I Love Gold!

      https://youtu.be/sr0gNJ090JA

      • On July 6, 2019 at 9:55 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Why Gold is Money: A Periodic Perspective

        The Visual Capitalist – July 4, 2019 By Nicholas LePan

        “Once the above elements are eliminated, there are only five precious metals left: platinum, palladium, rhodium, silver and gold. People have used silver as money, but it tarnishes over time. Rhodium and palladium are more recent discoveries, with limited historical uses.”

        “Platinum and gold are the remaining elements. Platinum’s extremely high melting point would require a furnace of the Gods to melt back in ancient times, making it impractical. This leaves us with gold. It melts at a lower temperature and is malleable, making it easy to work with.”

        > Gold as Money

        “Gold does not dissipate into the atmosphere, it does not burst into flames, and it does not poison or irradiate the holder. It is rare enough to make it difficult to overproduce and malleable to mint into coins, bars, and bricks. Civilizations have consistently used gold as a material of value.”

        https://www.visualcapitalist.com/why-gold-is-money-a-periodic-perspective/

        • On July 6, 2019 at 9:57 am,
          Excelsior says:

          The Gold Series: The History of Gold

          By Jeff Desjardins – The Visual Capitalist

          https://www.visualcapitalist.com/gold-series-history-gold/

          • On July 6, 2019 at 10:22 am,
            b says:

            Ex, tell the truth, what are you really saying about gold?

          • On July 6, 2019 at 11:24 am,
            Excelsior says:

            b – gold is just a pet rock and barbarous relic.

            (oh… and Central Banks keep buying it for some crazy reason… maybe because of it’s ability to be a store of value for thousands of years)

            😉

          • On July 6, 2019 at 11:37 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Personally, I’m far more interested in speculating on the much more volatile Jr Miners that pull the yellow metal out of the ground, but whose margins and economics track the movements in gold pricing.

            Philosophically I like how precious metals factor into the market dynamics of the economic universe. It’s a wild, wild, world…..

          • On July 8, 2019 at 12:41 am,
            JMiller says:

            Can’t wait to see the forth part of the series which is about gold being an investment. It should show that gold has not performed as well as an investment as stocks have over the long-term.

          • On July 8, 2019 at 3:56 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Well Gold has sure outperformed stocks in the century by a landslide from 2000- 2019.

          • On July 8, 2019 at 12:16 pm,
            JMiller says:

            Ex,

            Yes, gold did easily outperform the stock market as measured by large cap stocks during that medium time frame (2000-2019) but surprisingly during that time frame small and mid cap stocks actually outperformed gold.

          • On July 8, 2019 at 1:01 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Gold is up about 5x since trading opened on 1/1/2000.
            Since the same date, the Dow Jones US Small Cap Index is up less than 4x and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index is up about 3x.

          • On July 8, 2019 at 2:30 pm,
            JMiller says:

            You are correct Matthew as long as you exclude dividends. I, myself, consider dividends to be part of the total return (performance) of stocks. Some people however do not.

          • On July 8, 2019 at 3:03 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Since most small caps don’t pay dividends, I doubt that the difference makes up for the extra 100% that gold has on the Russell 2000.
            At 1.5%, it takes almost 50 years to double your money.

          • On July 8, 2019 at 7:31 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            JMiller – that is an interesting point to consider regarding dividends and they should count as part of the overall return, but as Matthew mentioned, most small to medium cap stocks don’t have much of a dividend or don’t have them at all.

            On the larger blue chip stocks the dividends factor in, but still wouldn’t have caused most portfolios in paper assets (stocks, mutual funds) to have outperformed gold in the 21st Century.

            There were also a number of large companies that completely went belly up in that time frame (big box retailers, electronics companies, software companies, restaurant franchises, video rental companies, etc….). There is still considerable risk in any individual company as the only constant in business is that things change.

            Gold isn’t go to go out of business, have a hostile takeover, or a disruptive industry (unless you count cryptos), so that is one reason it has stood the test of time as a store of value far longer than ANY individual company.

            For clarity, I’m not suggesting to put all one’s wealth or even half of one’s wealth in any asset class or precious metals, as I’m a big believer in a diversified portfolio that is rebalanced from time to time (stocks, mutal funds, bonds, PMs, real estate, business ventures, permanent insurance & annuities, etc…)

            My only point is that Gold has been money far longer than most assets still traded today, and likely will be money for a long time into the future because of it’s unique physical properties, and precedent as valuable.

        • On July 6, 2019 at 12:12 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          (EQX) (EQXFF) Equinox Gold Achieves Commercial Production at the Aurizona Gold Mine

          by @newswire on 2 Jul 2019

          During the month of June, the Aurizona processing plant operated at an average throughput of approximately 90% of its name-plate capacity of 8,200 tonnes per day, exceeded 90% average recovery and produced more than 7,000 ounces of gold. Gold production is expected to continue to increase through the third and fourth quarters of 2019, with average life-of-mine production estimated at 136,000 ounces per year.

          Christian Milau, Equinox Gold’s CEO, stated, “Achieving commercial production at Aurizona is a significant milestone, making Equinox Gold a multi-mine producer and bringing us one step closer to our near-term target of having three mines in production in 2020. We are pleased that Aurizona is ramping up quickly and thank our team, contractors and stakeholders in Brazil for their hard work and support.”

          https://ceo.ca/@newswire/equinox-gold-achieves-commercial-production-at-the

          • On July 6, 2019 at 12:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Equinox Gold (TSX-V: EQX) – $725M Market Cap in 18 Months. Pretty impressive.

            CRUX Investor – Jun 27, 2019
            Interview with Christian Milau, CEO and Director of Equinox Gold.

            “Where is the M&A? Where are the shareholder gains coming from? Do they need to diversify? Is there a retail investor story here? And will the Gold price stay steady?”

            “This is the coming together of 3 Gold assets, 2 in California and 1 in Brazil, and 3 big names in the shape of Ross Beaty, Richard Wark and Lucus Lundin. A strong management team, who has investing a significant proportion of their own wealth, and is incentivised on deliverables and share price and pride themselves on being lowest quartile salary for Gold companies. This is low-grade bulk tonnage business – so it’s about move dirt effectively and extracting Gold efficiently. Achieving a market cap of $725M in 18 months is no mean feat.”

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBSCTzntgXg

      • On July 6, 2019 at 12:54 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        RONALD-PETER STÖEFERLE: I Believe We Will Easily Go To $1500 Gold Very Soon

        July 3, 2019

        “Ronald discusses the potential for trust problems within the banking system and why these types of issues can happen quite quickly. His annual report “In Gold we Trust” looks at the problems looming in the financial sector.”

        “Trust in the political system, media, and science all appear to be crumbling at the moment. However, trust in the economy and the U.S. dollar remains reasonably stable. A monetary u-turn is coming, which will likely bring a recession to many countries. What will central banks do to mitigate this, and it seems likely they will counter this with more quantitative easing.”

        https://palisaderadio.com/ronald-peter-stoeferle-i-believe-we-will-easily-go-to-1500-gold-very-soon/

    • On July 6, 2019 at 11:27 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold’s Target Is $1,520 – Pepperstone Group

      Kitco News – Tuesday July 02, 2019

      “If this case plays out that we see this central bank easing to the extent that the swaps and rates markets are pricing, and I think you’d be looking at those 2011 lows at around $1,520 [an ounce] as your 12-month, 15-month price target,” Weston told Kitco News.

      Weston said that “gold still needs to find support before a sustained uptrend can be confirmed.”

      https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-07-02/Gold-Price-Target-Is-1-520-Pepperstone-Group.html

      • On July 6, 2019 at 11:35 am,
        Excelsior says:

        WCU: Commodity Market Heats Up

        2019-07-05 – Saxo Bank
        Ole Hansen – Head of Commodity Strategy

        “Commodities, with a few exceptions, failed to hold onto the gains that were seen following the G-20 meeting in Osaka. During a holiday-shortened week the market first reacted positively to renewed hopes that the US and China would return to the negotiation table. A relief that was soon overtaken by a return to reality when weak economic data from Asia to Europe and the US continued to highlight the risks to the global economy and with that demand for key commodities from oil to industrial metals.”

        “To finish off a volatile week the US job report for June ended up topping all estimates with stronger than expected job growth potentially easing calls for a 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut on July 31. ”

        “Gold traded in a 56-dollar range around $1400/oz as conflicting market news added to nervous trading from recent buyers still seeking assurance that gold has established a new low and not just another high. Crude oil jumped only to slump as demand growth concerns overshadowed a nine months extension of the Opec+ agreement to curb supply.”

        https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/07/05/wcu-commodity-market-heats-up

        • On July 6, 2019 at 12:57 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          ANTHONY MILEWSKI: EV Adoption Will Create Huge Pressure On Nickel Market

          “Anthony discusses the shift in battery chemistry and how companies have gradually reduced the amount of cobalt and manganese in their batteries. This chemistry requires time, capital, and safety reviews. The higher the ratio of nickel, the higher the capacity but also an increased possibility of thermal run-away. It will take some time to get to the higher nickel levels. Tesla is already approaching the highest levels of nickel in their batteries due in part to their advanced computerized charging systems that monitor and keep their batteries cool.”

          https://palisaderadio.com/anthony-milewski-ev-adoption-will-create-huge-pressure-on-nickel-market/

          • On July 8, 2019 at 6:33 am,
            r.charles says:

            Hi Ex – What is your favorite nickel stock?

            I am a little late to the party, but thanks to Cory and Al for another great show!

          • On July 8, 2019 at 7:51 am,
            Charles says:

            Ex – Can you share some of your favorite Nickel stocks?

            Thanks to Cory and Al for another great show! A little late to the show this week as I was busy moving.

          • On July 8, 2019 at 7:39 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here is my Nickel watchlist. I hold a position in Balmoral and initially traded the narrative in Garibaldi but haven’t done as much with Nickel personally. At one time I had a reasonable position in Metals X as well.

            My exposure to Nickel has been mostly through Platinum & Paladium companies on this list like North Amercian Palladium, Platinum Group Metals, Nickel Creek, Group Ten, Polymet, Sylvania, Panoramic, etc… as Nickel often occurs with PGMs.

            Giga Metals looks interesting to me for earlier stage.

            Sherritt Int’l is a solid producer of Nickel and Cobalt.

            I’ll throw out what I have on the #WatchList.

            AMC.L Amur Minerals Corp
            AAL.L Anglo American Plc
            ANTO.L Antofagast Plc
            ARL.AX Ardea Resources
            ATL.TO Atlatsa Resources Corp
            ANW.AX Aus Tin Mining
            AUZ.AX Australian Mines
            BAR Balmoral Resources Ltd
            BHP BHP Billiton Ltd
            BTT.V Bitterroot Resources
            BMZ.AX Black Mountain Resources Ltd
            JAY.L Bluejay Mining
            CHEM Canadian Energy Materials Corp
            CML.V Canickel Mining
            CZI.AX Cassini Resources
            CLA.AX Celsius Resources
            CTM.AX Centaurus Metals Ltd
            CLE.V Clean TeQ Holdings
            DKM.AX Duketon Mining
            ERA.PA Eramet SA
            FPX.V First Point Minerals
            FMG.AX Fortescue Metals
            GGI.V Garibaldi Resources
            GIGA.V Giga Metals Corp
            GLEN.L Glencore Plc
            PGE.V Group Ten Metals
            HLND Highlands Pacific Ltd
            HZM.TO Horizonte Minerals
            IGO.V Independence Group
            IMT.V International Montoro Resources Inc
            2362.HK Jinchuan Group
            JUB.V Jubilee Platinum
            LND.L Landore Resources
            LEG.AX Legend Mining Ltd
            MLX.AX Metals X
            MCR.AX Mincor Resources
            MTH.AX Mithril Resources Ltd
            MZM.AX Montezuma Mining
            MUM.V Mustang Minerals Corp
            NNN.V Nickel One
            NILSY Norilsk Nickel
            NOT.V Noront Resources
            NAN.V North American Nickel Inc
            KZZ Nunavik Nickel Mines Ltd
            PAN.AX Panoramic Resources
            PIO.AX Pioneer Resources Ltd
            POM.TO Polymet Mining
            POS.AX Poseidon Nickel Ltd
            NIC.V Pure Nickel Inc
            RMI.AX Resource Mining Corp
            RIO.L Rio Tinto
            RNKLF RNC Minerals (previously Royal Nickel Corp)
            RRS.V Rogue Resources Inc
            RXL.AX Rox Resources
            SME.V Sama Resources
            S.TO Sherritt International
            SIE.V Sienna Resources
            S32.AX South32 ltd
            SRJ.V Spearmint Resources
            SRCH.V SearchLight Resources previously CNC.V Canyon Copper
            SGQ.AX St George Mining Ltd
            SX.CN St Georges Eco-Mining
            SMMYY Sumitomo Metal Mining Co
            TLM.AX Talisman Mining
            TTC.CN Tartisan Nickel Corp
            XTM.V Transition Metals
            VALE Vale SA
            WM.TO Wallbridge Mining Co
            WG.TO Wellgreen Platinum
            WSA.AX Western Areas

  4. On July 6, 2019 at 11:36 am,
    Dick Tracy says:
  5. On July 7, 2019 at 7:13 am,
    markedtofuture says:

    July 4th Weekly Crypto Review with MooAnt and Samantha Jane

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CddRSPmOBz0

  6. On July 7, 2019 at 9:37 am,
    Matthew says:

    Will GDX fill its 6/20 gap this week? Based only on the daily chart, I’d guess yes:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p37008684955&a=643586306

  7. On July 7, 2019 at 9:49 am,
    Matthew says:

    While the sector leaders consolidate their gains, it wouldn’t surprise me if many juniors catch a bid. IPT, for example, finally looks and good and even bucked silver’s hard fall on Friday.
    The weekly chart is setting up for a breakout that will have IPT targeting its 2016 high:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=9&id=p13816054515&a=674986562

  8. On July 7, 2019 at 10:08 am,
    Matthew says:

    The odds that silver will rise versus gold have improved…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93631056116&a=672678565

    • On July 7, 2019 at 5:23 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, Silver is poised to gain on the gains gold has already made and it is time for it to break through $16 and $17.

  9. On July 7, 2019 at 10:24 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Humm……Not so Hummming along……..
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-06/debunking-myth-tight-us-labor-market
    for June, the fact is the labor force has contracted by more than 600,000 workers this year.

    • On July 7, 2019 at 10:26 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      the number of people unemployed has dropped by more than 400,000, or 6.50%, since December. But the number employed has also declined, by almost 200,000. So their sum total – the labor force – has fallen by almost 600,000, or about 0.33%.

      • On July 7, 2019 at 10:28 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        The notion of the tight labor market drawing people into the labor force from the sidelines is largely a myth.

        • On July 7, 2019 at 10:31 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          16 Million MORE people not in the workforce….from the year 2000, according to the debt clock… 🙂

  10. On July 7, 2019 at 11:42 am,
    Anders from Copenhagen says:

    Hi Cory.

    Thanks again for great content!

    In yesterday’s editorial with Doc you didn’t mention gold’s break out from the monthly bollinger bands. I am a little surprised this wasn’t mentioned since it’s my understanding, that this a key observation point for Doc.

    Hopefully you will soon go through gold’s technical picture with Doc; at least by the end of the month, where monthly technicals become more valid.

    Once again; thanks for all your efforts, Cory.
    I have learned a lot from listening to your show. Hopefully, all the knowledge I have gained will soon materialrize in some significant gains 😎🇩🇰

    Best Regards, Anders

    • On July 7, 2019 at 12:23 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Anders, gold’s positive monthly technicals are already valid. Gold closed well above the upper Bollinger band in June and even closed above the quarterly Bollinger bands for Q2.
      🍻

  11. On July 7, 2019 at 3:44 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:
    • On July 7, 2019 at 5:25 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Good post DT. This is the biggest flaw I’ve had as an investor. Picking bottoms and buying low has never been my weak point, although some struggle with that, but letting my winners run, or selling right before a breakout has been the area that I most need to work on. Much appreciated.

  12. On July 7, 2019 at 6:56 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The Dow is up 130% from its January 2000 high of 11,700 but how many people realize that it is really down by more than 50% since then, in real terms?

    Priced in gold, the Dow is down 14% since peaking last October. That’s a far cry from the picture painted when pricing it in dollars…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77946333119

    • On July 7, 2019 at 7:23 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Matthew – Great point about the discrepancy between the Dow priced in Dollars versus Gold. Most people don’t think about things in this light, and only in the fiat currency of their country, but valuing things against real money = Gold also is important to reflect on with paper assets, real estate, and businesses. Cheers!