Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 11 Jul, 2019

A quick swing in the CoT reports forecasts a near term gold pullback

Craig Hemke, Founder of TF Metals Report pays very close attention to the Commitment of Traders report for the metals. It was less than 1 year ago that we were talking about how the “dumb money”, specs, had moved short. This was a sign that gold was due to bounce – which it did. Now the specs are close to historic long level. We discuss this change in the CoT report and how the upcoming Fed meeting is driving the moves in gold.

Click here to visit Craig’s site and follow along with his metals commentary.

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Comments:
  1. On July 11, 2019 at 1:16 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On July 11, 2019 at 1:26 pm,
      OOTP says:

      The requested page could not be found.

    • On July 11, 2019 at 1:41 pm,
      cfs says:

      That’s merely a zerohedge advertisement.

      I only buy a couple of hundred oz of silver at a time, but I’m worried that it seems to take a longer time to arrive each time I order.
      I don’t like to order another batch until I get notice an order has shipped. Too many precious metal dealers in history have gone belly up. Buying from Tulving taught me that lesson.

        • On July 11, 2019 at 9:19 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Fed Cut…

          Thu, 07/11/2019

          “How Powell will announce and justify a 25bps, or maybe even 50bps, rate cut in three weeks, well that’s his problem.”

          “But it’s not just the market. As JPM lists, since the dovish June FOMC meeting that raised the odds of any rate cut in July from 20% on June 18 to 100% on June 19 (and of a 50bp cut from 0% to 26%), the news flow has been “decisively better than feared”, to wit: ”

          – The G20 Summit delivered a truce keeping negotiations alive.
          – The concerning intermingling of immigration policies with the passage of the USMCA has faded and the odds of enacting the USMCA before year-end have increased (even if still at risk).
          – The US labor market bounced back from a weak May reading while weekly claims fell to their lows in mid-April.”
          – Lastly, the puzzling soft inflation readings from earlier in the year finally reversed in today’s June report, with core CPI rising by the second strongest monthly gain of the expansion.”

          “So with i) the market at all time highs, ii) unemployment at all time lows, iii) payrolls printing above the highest wall street forecast, iv) core inflation above 2.0% and in the range of 2.0 to 2.2% for 11 months in a row confirming that the Fed is right where it should be based on its real mandate, v) US and China trade war currently in a tentative truce the Fed’s next move is… to cut!!??”

          https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-11/funny-thing-happened-way-fed-cut

  2. On July 11, 2019 at 1:50 pm,
    cfs says:
  3. On July 11, 2019 at 2:18 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (ANX) (ANXGF) Anaconda Mining Achieves Exceptional Gold Recoveries from Feasibility Level Metalurgical Testing at the Goldboro Gold Project

    by @newswire on 9 Jul 2019

    – High overall gold recoveries from samples tested averaged 97% with a range from 87% to 99%, with a range of 8% to 97% recovered by the gravity circuit;

    – All tests showed low reagent consumption;

    – No deleterious elements were found within the Goldboro samples which contained approximately 3% sulphide minerals;

    – In more than 70% of the samples (5 out of 7), the calculated head grade exceeded the value returned from the samples’ metallic screen assays;

    – This testing confirmed that cyanide destruction and arsenic removal systems would achieve water quality that meets the Federal Environmental Code of Practice for Metal Mines and the Metal Mining Effluent Regulations (MMER) discharge criteria.

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/anaconda-mining-achieves-exceptional-gold-recoveries

  4. On July 11, 2019 at 2:46 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    Craig is only looking for high $1400 by 4th qtr. I think he’s being way too cautious. JMO

    • On July 11, 2019 at 4:42 pm,
      mineralsrmoney says:

      Agree. This re-emerging Bull will leave many stranded and left out as I see/observe tremendous amount of skepticism. Looking for 1700-1750 (Technical measured move) by 2Q20 or, possibly before YE/19 (aggressive forecast).

    • On July 12, 2019 at 7:33 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      SD……ditto……..the bigger players are now in the market….
      And, if we look at the Global Gold ETF Flow data put out by the World Gold Council, June 2019 had the highest amount of inflows for the past seven years:

  5. On July 11, 2019 at 6:18 pm,
    cfs says:

    My greatest reservation about President Trump has always been his inability to control spending.

    With a totally out-of-control Democrat herd, and an incompetent bunch of self-centered Republicans, the responsibility to control Government spending fell on the inept shoulders of Trump. He is a terrible failure in this regard.
    Were it not for unparalleled over-spending by most other countries on the globe, the dollar would be in a state of collapse already.
    As it is Powell seems intent on a rate cut in July and even a possible further one later this year to ensure inflation = (by definition) dollar weakness.
    The US debt is huge and growing by the day.
    https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/3355970000000-federal-spending-sets-record-through-june-deficit-hits

  6. On July 11, 2019 at 6:23 pm,
    cfs says:
  7. On July 11, 2019 at 6:29 pm,
    b says:

    That “sun” is sure a “rag”.
    Reminds me of the National Enquirer.

    • On July 11, 2019 at 9:57 pm,
      cfs says:

      The UK News of the World (if it’s still in business) is UK’s National Enquirer.
      (It’s easier to win a libel lawsuit in the U.K.)

      • On July 11, 2019 at 10:25 pm,
        Matthew says:

        B is right, The Sun is a tabloid and The Sun on Sunday replaced the News of the World that you’re talking about.

      • On July 11, 2019 at 10:40 pm,
        Matthew says:

        The Sun was founded in 1964 and became a tabloid in 1969.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sun_(United_Kingdom)

  8. On July 11, 2019 at 9:07 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Investing in Mining: Why Some Mining Companies Succeed (and Why Some Fail)

    By MikeyMike426 – March 12, 2019

    https://insidexploration.com/investing-in-mining-why-some-mining-companies-succeed-and-why-some-fail/

    • On July 11, 2019 at 9:08 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Investing in Mining Stocks & Companies: Price, Location and Red Flags?

      By MikeyMike426 – March 12, 2019

      https://insidexploration.com/investing-in-mining-stocks-companies-price-location-and-red-flags/

      • On July 11, 2019 at 9:11 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        BTW – Those 2 links above feature Amanda van Dyke, who is very sharp on evaluating the mining sector. This is the 3rd part of this series with her and Mike.

        > Investing in Mining Companies: Good Management = Mining Success

        By MikeyMike426 – March 12, 2019

        https://insidexploration.com/investing-in-mining-companies-good-management-mining-success/

        • On July 11, 2019 at 9:14 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Speaking of Good Management….. the legendary Ross Beaty gets interviewed by Jamie.

          Resource Insider Podcast: Investing Like Billionaire Ross Beaty

          by @Keecher on 11 Jul 2019

          “He is the Chairman of Pan American Silver, the Chairman of Equinox Gold and the Founder of the Lumina Group of companies. He has built and sold over a dozen public companies and created many billions of dollars for shareholders (and himself).”

          – Who should be a mining entrepreneur and who should get a job;
          – The difference between great entrepreneurs and great management teams;
          – How and when to use other people’s money;
          – Ross’s early set backs, and how he pulled a rabbit out of a hat and turned his first company into a major success;
          – When leaders should be looking at a breadth of opportunities and when they need to focus and execute;
          – What it takes to succeed as a company builder and an investor in a bear market;
          – Lessons Ross learned building a renewable energy company;
          – Ross’s views on unstainable growth; and
          – The role of energy, travel, and luck in a successful career.

          https://ceo.ca/@keecher/resource-insider-podcast-investing-like-billionaire-ross-beaty

          • On July 11, 2019 at 10:01 pm,
            cfs says:

            Like many mining Company CEOs, he also liquidated companies and wiped out shareholders while managing to keep control of the ground for future development.