David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 8 Oct, 2019

A Palladium Company Takeover, Silver Juniors To Watch, and Another Stock To Watch Out For

This is a wide ranging discussion with Dave Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky. We dive into a couple news events and a couple companies involved in gold and silver that should be watched or avoided.

Click here to visit Dave’s site The Junior Miner Junky.


Comments:
  1. On October 8, 2019 at 3:11 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Cory & David – You know I really enjoy both you guys input but there are a few misconceptions from todays editorial worth pointing out for investors.

    1) Stillwater (that Sibanye acquired a few years back) is in Montana in the US, and NOT in Canada. It is a massive Palladium and Platinum deposit

    2) To say there aren’t any North American mining stocks with exposure to the PGMs just is not true. For example, literally right next to the Stillwater deposit is a Junior called (PGM) (PGEZF) Group Ten Metals and they are exploring along the same trend, in the same safe jurisdiction, right next to the last deposit that was taken out.
    They also have a 2nd PGM & Nickel/Copper project right next to Nickel Creek Platinum in the Yukon (another good jurisidiction I’m sure you’d agree on especially after the comments on Alexco). By the way Alexco’s neighbors, (MMG) Metallic Minerals has the same team running it with Greg Johnson, as does (PGM) Group Ten.

    https://grouptenmetals.com/site/assets/files/3631/2019-09-23_groupten_corporate_final.pdf

    3) As for there not being many PGM companies, this is true relative to Gold companies, and because most PGM deposits come along with Nickel, Copper, Gold/Silver, so they are all polymetallic deposits.

    Here is a list of companies with at least some Platium or Palladium exposure and about 1/3 are in North America, 1/3 are in Australia, and the rest are South Africa, so there are options for investors that are interested in this sector:

    > PGM Stocks

    21C METALS INC
    ABERDEEN INTERNATIONAL INC
    ANGLO PLATINUM LTD
    ARTEMIS RESOURCES LTD
    ATLATSA RES CORP
    CANADIAN PLATINUM CORP
    CLEAN COMMODITIES CORPORATION
    EASTERN PLATINUM LTD
    GROUP TEN METALS
    IMPALA PLATINUM HOLDINGS LTD
    IVANHOE MINES LTD
    JUBILEE METALS GROUP PLC
    LONMIN PLC
    MINFOCUS EXPLORATION
    MMC NORILSK NICKEL PJSC
    NEW AGE METALS
    NICKEL CREEK PLATINUM CORP
    NICKLE ONE INC
    NKWE PLATINUM LTD
    NOBLE METALS
    NORONT RESOURCES LTD
    NORTH AMERICAN PALLADIUM LTD
    NORTHAM PLATINUM PROPERTY LTD
    NOVX21 INC
    PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAPITAL CORP
    PAN AFRICAN RESOURCES
    PANORAMIC RESOURCES LTD
    PLATINA RESOURCES LTD
    PLATINUM GROUP METALS LIMITED
    POLYMET MINING CORPORATION
    SIBANYE GOLD LIMITED
    ST GEORGE MINING LTD
    SYLVANIA PLATINUM LIMITED
    TALON METAL CORPORATION
    THARISA PLC
    TRANSITION METALS CORP (NEW)
    UCORE RARE METALS INC
    WALLBRIDGE MINING COMPANY LTD
    ZKB PALLADIUM CORPORATION

    >> PGM – Funds and ETFs

    PHYSICAL PALLADIUM SHARES
    IPATH BLMBRG PLATINUM SUBINDEX TR ETN
    GraniteShares Platinum Trust
    PHYSICAL PLATINUM SHARES
    E-TRACS UBS LONG PLATINUM
    SPROTT PHYSICAL PLATINUM & PALLADIUM TRS

    • On October 8, 2019 at 3:14 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Now, regarding Silver stocks:

      1) to say there are only a handful of companies to choose from,

      2) that none are making money at $17-$18 Silver

      3) that some of the older Silver stories are not benefiting from the price increases we saw lately, are all statements that are simply not true.

      • On October 8, 2019 at 3:16 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        1) Here are some Silver stocks to choose from and there are more than a handful (about 100 stocks !!)

        > Silver Producers

        AMERICAS SILVER CORPORATION
        AVINO SILVER & GOLD MINES LTD
        BAYHORSE SILVER INC
        COEUR MINING INC
        ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORPORATION
        EXCELLON RESOURCES INC
        FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORPORATION
        FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC
        FRESNILLO PLC LONDON
        GOGOLD RESOURCES INC
        GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED
        HECLA MINING COMPANY
        HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC
        IMPACT SILVER CORPORATION
        MAYA GOLD & SILVER
        PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORPORATION
        SANTACRUZ SILVER MINING LTD
        SIERRA METALS INCORPORATED
        SILVERCORP METALS INC
        SSR MINING INC
        WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS

        >> Silver Developers & Explorers

        ABRAPLATA RESOURCE CORP
        AFTERMATH SIlVER LTD
        ALEXCO RESOURCE CORPORATION
        ALIEN METALS
        AMERICAN SILVER MINING COMPANY
        ARGENTUM SILVER CORP
        ARIZONA SILVER EXPLORATION INC
        ATHENA SILVER CORP
        AURA SILVER RESOURCES LTD
        AURCANA CORPORATION
        AZARGA METALS CORPORATION
        AZURE MINERALS LTD
        BEAR CREEK MINING CORPORATION
        BITTERROOT RESOURCES LTD
        BLIND CREEK RESOURCES
        BRIXTON METALS CORP
        BUNKER HILL MINING CORP
        CANADA COBALT WORKS
        CANADIAN SILVER HUNTER INC
        CANARC RESOURCE CORPORATION
        CANASIL RESOURCES INC
        CANTEX MINE DEVELOPMENT
        CMC METALS LTD
        DEFIANCE SILVER CORP
        DISCOVERY METALS CORP
        DOLLY VARDEN SILVER CORPORATION
        EXPLOREX RESOURCES INC
        FIRST AMERICAN SILVER CORPORATION
        GALENA MINING LTD
        GOLDEN GOLIATH RESOURCES LTD
        GOLDEN MINERALS COMPANY
        GOLDEN TAG RESOURCES LTD
        GOLDPLAY EXPLORATION LTD
        GGX GOLD CORP
        INTERNATIONAL SILVER INC
        INVESTIGATOR RESOURCES LTD
        JAXON MINING INC
        KLONDIKE SILVER CORPORATION
        KOOTENAY SILVER INC
        LEVON RES LIMITED
        MACPHERSONS RESOURCES LTD
        MAG SILVER CORPORATION
        METAL TIGER PLC
        METALLIC MINERALS CORPORATION
        MINCO SILVER CORPORATION
        MINAURUM GOLD INC
        MONTEGO RESOURCES
        NEW NADINA EXPLORATIONS LTD
        NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP
        NUBIAN RESOURCES LTD
        OREX MINERALS INCORPORATED
        PATAGONIA GOLD CORP
        PLATA LATINA MINERALS CORP
        PROSPERO SILVER CORP
        RIO SILVER INC
        SANTANA MINERALS
        SILVER BEAR RESOURCES PLC
        SILVER BULL RESOURCES INC
        SILVER DRAGON RESOURCES INCORPORATED
        SILVER GRAIL RESOURCES LTD
        SILVER MINES LTD
        SILVER ONE RESOURCES INC
        SILVER PREDATOR
        SILVER RANGE RESOURCES LTD
        SILVER SPRUCE RESOURCES INC
        SILVER VIPER MINERALS CORP
        SILVERCREST METALS INC
        SOUTHERN SILVER EXPLORATION CORPORATION
        STRIKEPOINT GOLD
        STROUD RESOURCES LTD
        VALOR RESOURCES LTD
        VISCOUNT MINING
        WHITE ROCK MINERALS

        • On October 8, 2019 at 3:21 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          2) As far as all Silver producers all losing money at $17-$18 Silver, that simply is not true.

          I had posted a few times on here and over at ceo.ca the Q2 All-In Sustaining Costs for the Silver producers and I’ll post those below. Keep in mind, some of these costs are actually going to be lower for Q3 when those numbers come in.

          I understand these AISC numbers are in constant flux, get massaged and tweaked for optics, and will vary on each quarterly report.

          $SVM Silvercorp Metals – AISC of $3.52
          $PAAS American Silver – AISC of $6.12
          $CDE Coeur Mining – AISC of $9.17
          $USAS Americas Silver – AISC of $10.50
          $HL Hecla Mining – AISC of $11.16
          $FSM Fortuna Silver – AISC of $11.30
          $FRES.L Fresnillo Plc – AISC of $11.83
          $SMT Sierra Metals – AISC of $12.31
          $SSRM SSR Mining – AISC of $12.60
          $ASM Avnio Silver & Gold – AISC of $13.10
          $HOC.L Hochschild Mining – AISC of $13.40
          $GGD GoGold Resources – AISC of $13.61
          $AG First Majestic Silver – AISC of $14.76
          $EXN Excellon Silver – AISC of $16.11
          $GPL Great Panther – AISC of $17.55
          $SCZ Santacruz Silver – AISC of $18.37
          $EXK Endeavour Silver – ASIC of $20.90
          $IPT Impact Silver – AISC unknown
          $MYA Maya Gold & Silver – AISC unknown
          $SBR Silver Bear Resources – AISC TBD – pre-commercial ramp up

          • On October 8, 2019 at 3:31 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            3) As for the “old” Silver companies just not responding well to price increases, that is just simply not the case either. In 2016 we saw almost all the Silver companies outperform most sectors, just like we did in the Q1 runs in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

            I posted these charts at month end this August and they’ll illustrate the point on Silver stocks just fine:

            Of these 9 Senior Silver #producers only 2 were down during that period, and of the 12 Jr Producers, they were all up nicely for this period:

            Senior Silver Producers 3 month #Chart (May 30 – Aug 30)

            Coeur D Alene – up 93%
            First Majestic – up 87%
            Pan American Silver – up 77%
            SSR Mining – up 44%
            Wheaton Precious Metals – up 40%
            Hecla Mining – up 38%
            Hochschild Mining – up 38%
            Fresnillo – Flat down – 1/3 of a %
            Sierra Metals – down -7%

            http://cdn.ceo.ca/1emlltf-Major%20Silver%20Producers%20Three%20Month%20Chart.JPG

          • On October 8, 2019 at 3:38 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            3b) Continuing on to dispel the notion that “old” Silver companies just haven’t been responding, here is a chart posted at month end this August and they’ll illustrate the point on Silver crushing most other sectors in just those 3 months (some have done even better YTD since coming out of tax loss selling in late 2018)

            12 Junior Silver #Producers over 3 months (from May 30 – Aug 30)

            Santacruz Silver (a former show sponsor from years ago) – up 209%
            Silvercorp Metals – up 101%
            GoGold Resources – up 100%
            Americas Gold & Silver – up 98%
            Silver Bear – up 86%
            Impact Silver – up 73%
            Fortuna Silver – up 68%
            Avino Silver and Gold – up 60%
            Excellon Resources – up 55%
            Endeavour Silver – up 50%
            Great Panther – up 22%
            Maya Gold & Silver – flat up 4/10 of %

            *Think of how well these Jr Silver producers did in just 3 months compared to the paltry returns that 99% of investors will make in the general stock indexes this year.

            …. and most of them were old companies around 10 years – 125 years 😉

            http://cdn.ceo.ca/1emlgcm-Junior%20Silver%20Producers%20Three%20Month%20Chart.JPG

          • On October 8, 2019 at 3:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I didn’t save any historic charts at the end of August or early Sept for the Silver Developers or Explorers, but I did post these 3 month charts on August 9th that illustrate the point well enough:

            > 3 Month #Chart – Jr Silver #Developers (May 9 – Aug 9, 2019)

            $SVE Silver One – Up 143%
            $LVN Levon resources – up 83%
            $SIL Silvercrest Metals – up 80%
            $SBR Silver Bear – up 77%
            $AXR Alexco – up 62%
            $BCM Bear Creek Mining – up 60%
            $ABRA AbraPlata – up 54%
            $MSV Minco Silver – up 53%
            $SVB Silver Bull – up 50%
            $SSV Southern Silver – up 23%
            $MAG Mag Silver – up 22%
            $KTN Kootenay Silver – up 17%

            http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ekshv7-JR%20Silver%20Developers%203%20Month%20Returns.JPG

            (many of these companies actually rose far more than this off their individual lows, but this was just a static 3 month chart I had saved from a post on May 9th)

          • On October 8, 2019 at 4:03 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Lastly, I had also posted one more Silver Developers & Explorers chart on Aug 9th:

            3 Month #Chart – Jr Silver #Developers & #Explorers (May 9th – Aug 9th, 2019)

            $DSV Discovery Metals – up 100%
            $SPD Silver Predator – up 71%
            $DEF Defiance Silver – up 69%
            $SSE Silver Spruce – up 67%
            $REX Orex Minerals – up 54%
            $PSL Prospero Silver – up 38%
            $GPLY Goldplay Exploration – up 38%
            $DV Dolly Varden Silver – up 31%
            $MMG Metallic Minerals – up 31%
            $NUAG New Pacific Metals – up 18%
            $BTT Bitterroot – up 14%
            $KS – Klondike silver – up 12%

            http://cdn.ceo.ca/1eksi0f-JR%20Silver%20Developers%20and%20Explorers%203%20Month%20Returns.JPG

            *** Again, many of these companies actually rose far more than this off their individual lows, but this was just a static 3 month chart I had saved from a post on Aug 9th as a quick snapshot at that time.

            For anyone that just isn’t seeing many opportunities in the Silver sector, they just simply aren’t looking hard enough.

            Good luck to everyone in their investing as the PM bull has paused to consolidate the last few weeks and these companies were back on sale for those that missed some of these runs over the last few months.

      • On October 8, 2019 at 4:09 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (SVM) Silvercorp has the best cost profile hands down, and has been making money hand over fist at current Silver prices. The Q3 numbers are not out yet, but here are the Q2 numbers [for their calendar year it will say Q1, but it is calendar Q2 for everyone else:

        (and keep in mind, this is when Silver was in the $14-$15 doldrums)

        Just think where these figures are going to land for Q3 (their Q2) with Silver prices in the $16-$19 range…. !!

        __________________________________________________

        (SVM) Silvercorp Reports Net Income of $12.6 Million, $0.07 per Share, and $19.9 Million Cash Flow from Operations for Q1 Fiscal 2020

        August 7, 2019

        http://silvercorpmetals.com/news_and_media/news/silvercorp-reports-net-income-of-126-million-007-per-share-and-199-million-cash-flow-from-operations-for-q1-fiscal-2020–

        • On October 8, 2019 at 10:59 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Pan American Silver Reports Earnings per Share of $0.09 for the Second Quarter of 2019
          August 7th, 2019

          “We delivered strong operating performance in Q2, resulting in cash flow from operations of $83.5 million,” said Michael Steinmann, President and Chief Executive Officer. ”

          https://www.panamericansilver.com/news/news-releases/detail/86/2019-08-07-pan-american-silver-reports-earnings-per-share-of-0-09-for-the-second-quarter-of-2019

          • On October 8, 2019 at 11:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hochschild MiningPLC – Interim Results

            14 August 2019

            Financial highlights

            § Revenue of $354.5 million

            § Adjusted EBITDA of $153.7 million

            § Pre-exceptional profit before income tax of $41.5 million

            § Post-exceptional profit before income tax of $29.5 million

            § Adjusted basic earnings per share of $0.04

            http://www.hochschildmining.com/en/investors/news

          • On October 8, 2019 at 11:10 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            (ASM) Avino was around break-even in Q2, but with higher Silver prices in Q3 they should start getting rerated (and they’ve increased their throughput with the 4th processing circuit they now have operational.

            ____________________________________________________________
            (ASM) Avino Reports Q2 2019 Financial Results

            August 7, 2019

            SECOND QUARTER 2019 HIGHLIGHTS

            Generated revenues of $7.8 million from the sale of concentrates

            Mine operating income of $0.3 million

            Net loss after taxes of $0.2 million, or Nil per share

            Silver equivalent production of 599,593 ounces1, including 246,129 ounces of silver, 1,609 ounces of gold and 1,136,113 pounds of copper

            Total consolidated cash cost2 was $10.89 per silver equivalent payable ounce1

            Consolidated all-in sustaining cost (“AISC”)2 was $13.10 per silver payable equivalent ounce1

            Working capital of $8.7 million, at June 30, 2019, and $14.2 million as of today

            Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”)2 was $0.6 million

            https://www.avino.com/news/2019/avino-reports-q2-2019-financial-results/

          • On October 8, 2019 at 11:37 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Smaller producers like Impact Silver, Excellon, Santacruz, and medium producers Endeavour Silver and Sierra Metals were still underwater at $15 silver, and really need $20 Silver, but as the metals prices inched higher, that is why these companies really started to move. At $17-$18 silver for Q3 they may be just under profitability to flat, but I don’t know many that believe Silver will stay in the $17-18 range for the medium to longer term. Since the markets are forward looking, most serious analysts in the space expect Silver to eventually catch up with Gold (that already took out it’s 2016 high) and follow suit where silver will take out that 2016 peak of $21.23. At those prices, those marginal producers will blow up past where most investors are expecting, and investors will watch in disbelief as these Best of the Worst bring in multi-bagger returns without having to take on the risk of an explorer.

    • On October 8, 2019 at 6:20 pm,
      David Erfle says:

      Yes, I realized my error on the location of Stillwater after the playback. Meant to say N. America, so my apologies. As far as PGM juniors are concerned, there are not any I have found that meet my investment criteria, which is very strict. As far as silver juniors are concerned, there are only six that I own and cover in my newsletter that meet this criteria. I do not have the time to break down all of the silver producers you mentioned but last I checked, Fortuna is the only jr miner to post a production profit last quarter but since they purchased the Argentina projects, this is not a jurisdiction I feel comfortable investing in and the stock has under-performed since they acquired these projects. Helca, First Majestic, Excellon etc are jr producers which all lost money last quarter and many on your list are not juniors. SilverCorp is in China and another jurisdiction I am not comfortable investing in, especially considering this companies problems there in the past. AISC is a deceiving cost base structure which does not factor in taxes, NSR’s and royalties. There are not many silver junior developer/explorers or early stage juniors that meet my investment criteria but there are a few. Sorry to say that most juniors in general are not worth speculating in IMO. I learned a long time ago that most of them are lifestyle companies, which makes the ones that are not all the more appealing. AXU & USAS are two of them. Thanks for all your comments as always.

      • On October 8, 2019 at 10:20 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I appreciate your comments David, and respect that you have your own investment criteria, and agree that AXU and USAS are two of the better Silver companies to hold with good managment, good jurisdictions, and good cost structures. I own good positions in both in my portfolio.

        As for Silvercorp, they have absolutely made money and have been making money quarter after quarter, and they have the lowest costs in the space hands down.

        That is also why Silvercorp has been the top performing Sr Silver producer year to date (currently up 98.26% on the year), with only the Jr Producer (SCZ) Santacruz Silver outperforming year-to-date up 133.33%.

        In addition (SVM) Silvercorp utilizes one of the most advanced communication platforms in their mining operations of any company in the industry (real time social media updates at all places so all departments are in touch and drilling and mining with real time communication). The prior allegations from years back were dismissed as erroneous and hyped up by documentaries that only spread the fake news to attack the company and the mining industry, and amounted to nothing more than an isolated and a targeted smear by the 2 Canadians pushing the narrative. I agree, that China is more opaque, but considering how well the company has been managed at their opeations, the free cashflow, the 29% stake they hold in NUAG New Pacific Metals, and their clear outperformance in 2019, compared to almost any sector (more than doubling at one point), then I’m glad they met my investment criteria.

        Likewise, I’m glad part of my investing criteria was to look for leverage in the miners, and whether in Gold or Silver producers, it is the miners struggling right below profitability that will have the most upside torque, as small increments higher in their margins transform their economics so much more on a percentage basis.

        This torque to miners just underprofitability that then get to parity and then start working on profitability outperformed from 2009-2011, in the epic run in 2016, and have so far in this run in 2019. This is why an unprofitable miner (flirting with breakeven) like (SCZ) Santacruz Silver up 133% year today at at one point up 215% led the pack this year with the best performance, and why marginal companies making improvements to costs as metals prices rose like (EXN) Excellon up 41% YTD and was up about 60% at one point, or (IPT) Impact Silver up 22% on year but at one point up about 80% were still up more than most companies in any sector.

        Also as for Fortuna or Pan American or Coeur they are all solid companies, with all the accolades, and were all up nicely in the 40-60% range at one point but now year-to-date (FSM)Fortuna is down -9% (PAAS) Pan American is only up 14% and (CDE) Coeur is up 20%.

        It is rarely the “Best” companies or “Tier 1” deposits that have the best stock performance in the producers.

        Rather, it ends up being 3 main areas that outperform with Producers:
        1) the very lowest cost producers with exploration upside (like Silvercorp),
        2) the companies that can most radically increase production throughput (like Americas Gold & Silver has done through mine expansion and acquisition) or
        3) companies that improve recoveries on the biggest percentage increase (like what First Majestic has done with their tinier bubbles and roaster)

        As a result, those are the investing criteria that net the largest gains in producers time and time again.

        These 3 areas are cumulatively much easier to improve on a percentage basis for smaller companies than larger companies, so often it is “The Best of the Worst” that will see the most impact on their economic margins from raising metals prices. These marginal producers can improve their costs, expand production, and improve recoveries only slightly into rising metals cost, and see outsized moves higher.

        Most larger Sr Producers like Fresnillo, Hochschild, SSR, or Tahoe (before Pan American acquired them) could not make a large enough increase to warrant such outperformance, and we see the exact same thing with most Sr Gold producers compared to the smaller producers.

        None of the producers are lifestyle companies, as we only see that in worthless exploration stocks and developers without a wing or a prayer until massively higher metals prices.

        Now as for Developers, if they keep hitting with exploration or become takeover targets then they can really pop, but it is their “Golden Runway” at the tail end of the Lassonde Curve higher once they are past the orphan phase, getting funded, and moving into construction that sees them take off – like right where (AXU) Alexco has been heading presently, or look at the epic run (SIL) Silvercrest has taken from exploration into development, and likely another takeover (like when First Majestic grabbed their last property). It is a very predictable pattern, just like the selloff after first pour generally pulls the stock back down or at least has them underperform for a few quarters. (Atlantic Gold being one of the few exceptions recently) — most pullback for a while before then turning and heading back up.

        As for Explorers, a few of the lucky ones can pop the most, but explorers are the riskiest and have the least knows about them, and are the most prone to becoming lifestyle companies perpetually raising funds to justify their jobs, and never really getting a deposit into a mine. Most will fail.

        Most of the Silver explorers did not outperform in 2016, or in the Q1 Runs in 2017, 2018, or 2019 (with Silvercrest being an exception).

        In fact all year, we’ve heard belly-aching from investors on all forums about how bad most of the Jr Explorers have done in the face of rising metals prices. (with a few notable execeptions). Only 1 in 3000 exploration projects will actually become an economic mine, so that shouldn’t be a surprise. That is why when the few companies that have success with the drill bit hit, they go bananas (until the valuations get silly and return to Earth as gravity sets in).

        Most generalist investors will start with passive investing vehicles = ETFs, which are generally filled with medium to small producers and a few established developers. The explorers don’t get the benefit of those inflows until later in the cycle when things go more parabolic, or unless they really lock onto something big and market themselves well, and get to keep raising capital. It is rare.

        Bottom Line: There are many kinds of investors, many styles of investing, and many ways to filter criteria of one’s unique investment criteria.

        Personally, I’m most interested in the strategies that net the largest returns as that is the true measure of success as an investor, and is not without a proportionate amount of risk.

        2019 has a been a good year for Silver investors, and I’m happy to have owned Silver producers that all outperformed the majority of the sector like (SCZ) (SVM) (USAS) (IPT) (EXN) (ASM) (AG) and (EXK), and I’m glad I passed on most of the largest companies that would be the “safer” bets.

        Good luck to everyone in their investing strategies and using their unique process, and may all the folks here at the KER have a very prosperous end to 2019 and moving into 2020.

        • On October 8, 2019 at 10:51 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I will say for the larger Silver producers that Coeur and First Majestic had considerable torque in 2009-2011, in 2016, and have shown strength on many of the other rallies in 2017, 2018, and this year in 2019. I don’t own Coeur, (but did briefly after they took over Northern Empire that I held and it converted into CDE shares). I do own (AG) and believe they are set up to head much higher still, but are not without risk being only in Mexico, and if they have any strikes at San Dimas, like what Primero had to endure, it could be a big headwind for them. Still, I like their improved metal recoveries, the big roaster for tailings, and their expansion potential through more exploration around their existing mines.

          A few companies that surprised in the Silver space this year that don’t get discussed as much were:

          – GoGold resources that are doing well with production, but really have excelled in exploration along side that operational success
          – Silver One and Levon resources as developers on the move
          – a few Silver explorers like Discovery Metals, Silver Spruce, and Silver Predator were on the move….

          • On October 8, 2019 at 11:18 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The reason (GGD) has done so well this year, is that it is another Jr Producer that is flirting with profitability and thus had some of the more out-sized moves when metals prices moved higher. They were just slightly negative in Q2, but for the last 9 months were slightly positive on Net Income and Earnings Per Share. It will interesting to see how things look in Q3 with the higher metals prices in play.

            ____________________________________________________________

            (GGD) GoGold Reports Financial Results for the Quarter ended June 30, 2019 and Provides Los Ricos Update

            Aug 8, 2019

            “GoGold Resources Inc. (TSX: GGD) ) reports revenue of $6.4 million on the sale of 438,740 silver equivalent ounces sold at an average realized price of $14.55. The Corporation closed the quarter in a strong financial position with $9.0 million in cash and marketable securities and no debt.”

            https://gogoldresources.com/investors/press-releases/2019/210-gogold-reports-financial-results-for-the-quarter-ended-june-30-2019-and-provides-los-ricos-update

        • On October 9, 2019 at 10:09 am,
          Matthew says:

          “The best of the worst” is exactly what you want in a bull market…
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&st=2015-03-18&en=2017-02-14&id=p43321821987&a=465849003

          • On October 9, 2019 at 10:30 am,
            Excelsior says:

            +1 Matthew.

  2. On October 8, 2019 at 3:28 pm,
    David says:

    Thanks for the impressive listings. It would be cruel of me to ask for rank order listings, so I will just thank you instead.

    • On October 8, 2019 at 3:45 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      You’re welcome David. Glad to share ideas and I particularly like the PGM and Silver sectors, and just felt documentation was needed to address some of the misnomers in these sectors.

      I think the whole concept of ranking mining stocks isn’t possible, as there are so many different buying criteria that may be important to one investor but not another. However, I get asked this question a few times a week by investors over at ceo.ca and finally posted a Silver rant about them a while back, that I’ll post below.

      For context, I kept getting private messages asking for my Top 3 Silver stock picks, which seemed crazy because I didn’t know those investors criteria:

      _______________________________________________________________________

      > I was asked by someone recently in a private message what my best 3 picks are for #Silver stocks, and that is such a difficult question to ever answer because it is impossible to quantify “Best” for all potential desires, risk tolerances, trading approaches, and investing timelines.

      Best means different things to different people, and comes down to the criteria that matter (does mean best safety w/ growth? Best risk/ return speculation odds? Best cashflow, best production numbers, best jurisdiction preferences, etc…) I wrote this investor back with a few ideas of just how hard it is to pick just 3 stocks in the Silver sector, especially across a spectrum of Producers, Developers, Explorers, and Prospect Generators….

      _________________

      I wrote him back the following:

      > Best performers so far – $EXN Excellon $SCZ Santacruz have had the most upside ~torque lately as marginal producers that benefit the most from increase in metals pricing, but that may or may not continue) $BCM Bear Creek Mining had a nice initial move out of the May low, as an optionality play on a large Silver development project.

      — Typically $IPT Impact Silver has the best upside torque, and while it got off to a slower start this round, it has really started to move lately.

      > Best odds of increasing #production – $USA Americas Silver has gold production coming online in 6 months from Relief Canyon to assist it’s overall PM metrics, alongside Silver/Lead/Zinc; $ASM Avino Silver and Gold has 4th circuit finally completed and will be adding throughput, and is getting closer to bringing on Bralorne in BC; $EXK Endeavour Silver has a 5th mine, Terronera, about to come online in the next year that will radically augment their production profile.

      > Best cost profile $SVM Silvercorp has had this honor for years, and is still the lowest cost producer with base metals credits, $USAS Americas Silver second best cost profile due to their base metals credits and it will look even better once their Gold production starts, and lastly $MAG Mag Silver will have 3rd best costs if it ever gets into production

      > Best #development plays – $AXU $AXR Alexco is my favorite high-grade near term producer; $BHS Bayhorse is expanding from development and trial mining into commercial production this year and very under-rated and under-followed; $SVB Silverbear is coming online into commercial production in Russian this year.

      Some would point out how $BCM Bear Creek has led the developers higher and has a wider following as a very large, lower grade optionality play on higher metals prices. Also, $SBB Sabina Gold & Silver is a very solid development-stage story, but I consider it mostly a Gold story so I don’t normally include it with the Silver stocks, but do own it, and feel it is a very likely takeover candidate for this bull run.

      > Best #Exploration potential (very difficult to pick as is the nature of discovery) – $MMG Metallia Minerals [Alexco’s neighbors] has the best odds of finding new high-grade discoveries at the well-endowed Keno Hill; $IPT Impact Silver – has good Silver and Gold prospects and has regularly brough great exploration results to the market year after year; $SIL Silvercrest is leader in the pack for exploration with a number of truly bonanza grade drill results, but also has already moved very high in valuation as a result. It is the most likely silver explorer to get taken out).

      Other mentions are $DEF Defiance with very promising exploration potential and a mineral rich orebody with lots of prior work done. I hold a position in $DV Dolly Varden because I feel they’ll still keep hitting big on exploration and continue developing towards production. They are working around a prior-producing mine of signifcance but have shown there is far more left in the ground. I took a punt on $REX as well to see if Gary Cope and team can get this one moving again.

      > Best “safer” larger companies $AG $FR First Majestic $CDE Coeur $FSM Fortuna

      > Best Optionality plays – $KTN Kootenay, $ABRA Abraplata, $SCZ Santacruz

      There are so many interesting other #exploration companies left in the silver space and each has it’s own strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, but they are too many to mention here. I’m sure others have better insights into all the different drill programs going on in the Silver space.

      Good luck to all in their investing whichever companies they choose.

      https://ceo.ca/silver?c866719ade51

  3. On October 8, 2019 at 4:11 pm,
    b says:

    Well done Ex, thx for the info.

    • On October 8, 2019 at 4:16 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks b – glad to share ideas.

      It is funny because I actually thought of you before I posted these, because I know you aren’t a huge fan of lists on the blog, and I really have resisted posting as many lists as I used to, but most of those above have performance stats like returns over 3 months, or their All-In Sustaining Costs metrics, and charts to add value.

      Ever Upward!

      • On October 8, 2019 at 5:27 pm,
        Cottster says:

        I think Excelsior should be on the show. He certainly does his research !

        • On October 9, 2019 at 10:34 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks for the kind words Cottster. I enjoy researching the Jr mining sector, but just contribute here on the blog and over at ceo.ca.

          Have a prosperous rest of the week!

    • On October 9, 2019 at 12:08 am,
      Mike says:

      Mega dittos on that… Most appreciated, Ex!

      • On October 9, 2019 at 1:44 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks Mike. Cheers!

  4. On October 8, 2019 at 5:19 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The Hedgeless Horseman is gearing up to do a site visit with Bob Moriarty soon:

    @HHorseman “I will likely be going down to Pilbara (along with Bob) in about 2 weeks btw”

    https://ceo.ca/nvo?d342678dc9a6

    • On October 8, 2019 at 5:22 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Also Bob M. will be on Jay Taylor’s show soon:

      > Bob Moriarty, Chris Taylor and Michael Oliver return this week on the radio program.

      “Brilliant! Outspoken! Colorful! Eccentric! Controversial! Those words describe Bob Moriarty of 321Gold. Bob sees the American Empire’s expansionism leading to the next global financial crisis and America’s military industrial complex pushing the world toward world war as America competes against China’s expanding influence financed via trade surpluses. The impact of a more dominant China on the energy markets, the dollar, and gold will be discussed along with several of Bob’s favorite gold stocks, including Novo Resources and Irving Resources.”

      https://jaytaylormedia.com/next-weeks-guest/

  5. On October 9, 2019 at 1:32 am,
    Excelsior says:

    $NMX $NMKEF Nemaska aims to complete $600m Pallinghurst deal by year-end

    Jackson Chen | October 8, 2019 #Lithium #Developer

    “In July, Nemaska received a letter of intent from Pallinghurst for a C$600 million private placement, which would enable Nemaska to complete the construction of its Whabouchi hard-rock lithium mine in the #JamesBay region and at the Shawinigan processing plant north of Montreal.”

    https://www.mining.com/nemaska-aims-to-complete-600-million-pallinghurst-investment-deal-by-year-end/

  6. On October 9, 2019 at 1:34 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Mining companies must show how they are prioritizing sustainable and inclusive growth to redefine their image

    Paul Mitchell – The Globe and Mail – October 3, 2019

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-mining-companies-must-show-how-they-are-prioritizing-sustainable-and/

  7. On October 9, 2019 at 1:46 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Hunt for palladium riches sends South African miners abroad

    Bloomberg News | October 8, 2019

    “Southern Africa is home to the world’s richest platinum deposits, but when Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. pondered how to invest its windfall profits it chose North America instead.”

    “The acquisition of North American Palladium Ltd. is partly a bet on platinum’s sister metal palladium continuing to rally, while Implats Chief Executive Officer Nico Muller has also stressed the appeal of a relatively quick payback from low-cost, mechanized assets. However, the deal is also a geopolitical play as the Johannesburg-based miner seeks to balance exposure to its more volatile home region.”

    “The diversification into North America provides a hedge against some of the socio-economic, political and structural risks the company faces in South Africa and Zimbabwe,” said Christopher Nicholson, an analyst at RMB Morgan Stanley.

    https://www.mining.com/web/hunt-for-palladium-riches-sends-south-african-miners-abroad/

  8. On October 9, 2019 at 8:30 am,
    Wolfster says:

    I believe the triumph gold was getting hyped by the wealth report group this past weekend or early this week as well

  9. On October 9, 2019 at 9:19 am,
    john says:

    Thanks Excelsior,

    This is the best silver mining analysis I have seen in about 15 years.

    • On October 9, 2019 at 10:32 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks John. I appreciate that, and do enjoy the Silver mining sector.

  10. On October 9, 2019 at 9:41 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Ex….is there any news I’ve missed on golden valley????….showing signs of life

    • On October 9, 2019 at 10:33 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Maybe more folks are just realizing how undervalued GZZ is relative to its stake in RZZ and its Joint Ventures with Bonterra, O3 Mining, Sirios, and it’s other stakes in VZZ and IZZ.

      It still has much further to climb to catch up to just the RZZ 44% stake, not to mention the rest.

      Ever Upward!