Weekend Show – Sat 26 Oct, 2019

Hour 1 – Featuring Jesse Felder, Rick Bensignor, and Matt Geiger

This first hour is full of extended segments with topics ranging from overall US markets health to opportunities in depressed markets, and of course comments on the resource sector. It’s fascinating to see three different types of investors and money managers all have similar outlooks for risk on and risk off assets.

Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting or emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com.

  • Segment 1 – Jesse Felder, Founder of The Felder Report kicks off the show with an extended conversation starting with a discussion on distinguishing between a bubble and a mania. We then look to some of the sectors that Jesse sees as offering great value for investors.
  • Segment 2 and 3 – Rick Bensignor, Founder of Bensingor Investment Strategies shares his thoughts on the US markets, Emerging Markets, copper, and gold.
  • Segment 4 – Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Captial focuses on the resource sector. We chat about the weakness in the USD and how that could impact the metals; how he is positioning his fund for tax loss selling season; and what he thinks will finally drive M&A activity in the sector.

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week


Jesse Felder
Rick Bensignor
Matt Geiger

Comments:
  1. On October 26, 2019 at 9:17 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Cory & Big Al thanks for all that you and the KER contributors do to bring us great insights and editorials day in and day out. Looking forward to the weekend show.

  2. On October 26, 2019 at 9:28 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold ekes gain as economic data, global tumult spur #Fed cut bets

    Bloomberg News | October 25, 2019

    “Gold futures pared their weekly gain on Friday as progress in the US-Chinese trade talks weighed against weaker-than-expected U.S. data that reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs next week.”

    https://www.mining.com/web/gold-ekes-gain-as-economic-data-global-tumult-spur-fed-cut-bets/

    • On October 26, 2019 at 9:54 am,
      Excelsior says:

      E.B. Tucker – New All Time High for Gold Will Arrive Next Year

      by @PalisadeRadio on 24 Oct 2019

      “Why Gold and Silver are ready to begin a much bigger move, how to become more successful as an investor, and what he learned from resource legend Doug Casey.”

      https://ceo.ca/@palisaderadio/eb-tucker-new-all-time-high-for-gold-will-arrive-next-year

      • On October 26, 2019 at 9:58 am,
        Excelsior says:

        WCU: Gold and Silver Resume Climb Ahead of FOMC Rate Cut

        Ole Hansen – Head of Commodity Strategy

        “Crude oil and metals, both the industrial and precious kind helped drive a key commodity index to a one-month high. The rally in agriculture commodities paused with the market adopting a wait-and-see ahead of the expected light trade deal between the U.S. and China.”

        https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/10/25/weekly-commodity-update

        • On October 26, 2019 at 11:36 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Gold Sector Poised For A Big Move As Fed Week Looms Large

          by @Goldfinger on 26 Oct 2019

          “Friday’s high tested the downtrend drawn off the tops since the early September high, which sets the stage for a potential breakout above this downtrend next week. Sentiment is in neutral territory on the gold miners and seasonality will begin to offer tailwinds beginning next week. The stage is set for an upside breakout, however, in the event of another failure at resistance the stage is also set for a breakdown through support that has been tested multiple times in recent weeks.”

          “In the words, a big move is coming in the gold mining sector and it could happen as early as next week. ”

          https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-sector-poised-for-a-big-move-as-fed-week-looms-large

  3. On October 26, 2019 at 9:32 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Greg S. @GS_CapSF — 22h22 hours ago – Twitter

    “Short term lending will help ease repo stress but does nothing to stave off recession. TOMO & NY Fed Repo operations are not the same as LSAP program. Fed is on record saying QE won’t be started until rate cuts hit their limit.”

    ____________________________________________________________________________

    Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

    {Replying to @GS_CapSF & @tradedigest and others}

    “T-Bill purchases & TOMO is QE, because it is “credit easing” for the US govt. If the Fed disagrees, the Fed should stand aside & let UST supplies drive repo rates to 10% again & leave them there, and see how it takes for the US govt to default w/short term UST rates at 10%+”

    Luke Gromen – 11:44 AM – 25 Oct 2019

    • On October 26, 2019 at 9:36 am,
      Excelsior says:

      While there has been a lot of debate lately on how exactly to label what the FED is doing in the overnight Repo markets, it is clear they are tinkering with where the treasury rates would be if left to natural market forces. It is a different tool, but interference nonetheless.

      Since the 2008 crisis, there have been a number of different tools applied by both the governement [ $8K home credit, “cash for clunkers”, student debt loan forgiveness], and the FED (T.A.R.P, QE 2, Operation Twist, etc…] to keep things from imploding.

      The takeaway here, isn’t whether the actions lately by the FED is the same thing as more QE, but rather the issue is that they are intervening to keep Repo rates lower, to impact treasury rates, and to inject liquidity in a system that has a “plumbing issue.”

      There is obviously sickness under the surface, and when the world relies on Central Banks to put lipstick on the pig, then we are in an artificial market that is being managed.

      If the markets were really left “free” to manage themselves and the “invisible hand” of Adam Smith was truly the model, things would have crashed long ago. Banks, insurance companies, and car manufacturers should have never been “Too Big To Fail” and when governments intervene to prop up failed businesses, then we do not have free markets…. we have a large blow-up doll of an artificial market and have entered the twilight zone…

      • On October 26, 2019 at 9:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Here’s a sobering thought on how all this FED interjection affects real price discovery:

        ______________________________________________________________________

        Victor The Cleaner @VictorCleaner 7:52 PM – 25 Oct 2019 – Twitter

        “When the government creates money to bid for existing assets (or gives the new money to those who do), then asset prices can remain overpriced for long and even keep growing. But should *you* buy some, you are nevertheless overpaying, and you will get a bad deal in the long run.”

        https://twitter.com/VictorCleaner/status/1187924854491746306

        • On October 26, 2019 at 9:47 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Repo Quake – A Primer

          October 2, 2019 | Author Pater Tenebrarum

          “The funding stresses in overnight repo markets were the culmination of a problem that has been simmering in the background for quite some time. It was partly the result of new banking regulations implemented after the GFC (Basel III), the change in money market regulations, the decrease in excess reserves due to QT (as well as for other reasons), a government that is spending like a drunken sailor, and last but not least, assorted yield curve inversions.”

          “In essence, the problem is that there is a surplus of treasury collateral looking for short-term funding, and not enough liquidity. But how did this situation come about?”

          https://acting-man.com/?p=54827

  4. On October 26, 2019 at 9:52 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Latin America Sinks Under The Weight Of Its Third-Rate Currencies

    Steve Hanke – Oct 25, 2019

    “Six months ago, the IMF predicted that the region would grow at an anemic 1.4% this year. Now, the IMF has downgraded Latin America’s growth rate for 2019 to a measly 0.2%. Given the recent turmoil in Ecuador, Bolivia, and Chile, I think the IMF’s most recent forecast might be too rosy. And, if that’s not bad enough, the IMF forecasts for the next five years indicate that the prospects for the region are bleak. Indeed, the IMF’s five-year forecasts indicate that most of the countries in Latin America will grow below the global average for emerging market economies.”

    “The real problem that plagues most Latin American countries is the fact that they have central banks that issue half-baked local currencies. Although widespread today, central banks are relatively new institutional arrangements. In 1900, there were only 18 central banks in the world. By 1940, the number had grown to 40. Today, there are over 150.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2019/10/25/latin-america-sinks-under-the-weight-of-its-third-rate-currencies/#3b18fed4788d

    • On October 26, 2019 at 9:53 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Latin Spring = Danger for Investors

      by Lobo Tiggre

      “Massive protests have erupted in Chile, Ecuador, and Bolivia. The potential for more in other Latin American countries has some folks calling it the Latin Spring. The causes of the outbreaks vary, but there’s a common thread and it spells danger for investors—and everyone.”

      https://independentspeculator.com/latin-spring-danger-for-investors/

  5. On October 26, 2019 at 10:28 am,
    CFS says:

    I wonder whether the new Google quantum computer will break crypto-currency coding in an hour, a minute or a few seconds.

    Cryptos only work if the coding is secure from cracking. It was always going to give it a limited life.

  6. On October 26, 2019 at 11:42 am,
    Matthew says:

    Silver looks good despite the large pullback from yesterday’s high:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p57442519932&a=695649370

    • On October 26, 2019 at 11:44 am,
      Matthew says:

      SLV might give us a better clue about silver’s strength with its stock market trading hours. Note the close well above the upper Bollinger Band:
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p06643793949

      • On October 26, 2019 at 5:30 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yeah, I would have liked to have seen Silver hold onto more of that move higher into the close, but still it looks like it could get peppy and move higher. It will be interesting to watch for follow-through in the move higher in this coming week after the fedbabble and rate cut. Some of the Silver miners were rather frisky into the end of the week as well, which is nice to see.

        • On October 26, 2019 at 6:00 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          If Silver Is the New Gold, Now Is a Good Time to Buy

          By Myra P. Saefong – Oct. 25, 2019

          “If you are bullish on gold’s future prospects, silver is going to provide you with upside leverage with relatively low risks at these price levels,” says Peter Spina, president of silver news and analysis provider SilverSeek.com. “The risk-to-reward appeal in silver is one of the best opportunities in a decade.”

          https://www.barrons.com/articles/if-silver-is-the-new-gold-now-is-a-good-time-to-buy-51571997600

    • On October 26, 2019 at 11:52 am,
      Matthew says:

      For the first time in 1.5 years, the Canadian dollar has 3 successive daily closes above the 600 day EMA:
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p91448266307

      • On October 26, 2019 at 11:54 am,
        Matthew says:
      • On October 26, 2019 at 12:04 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Gold might not move decisively until after the Fed meeting and the action in silver and the silver juniors in particular suggests that that move will be to the upside:
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p15481792209&a=687508565

        • On October 26, 2019 at 2:08 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          That would be great if it next move was to upside, and since we are continuing on in the bull market, that seems more probablistic out of this compression triangle.

          • On October 26, 2019 at 3:01 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I think the next move up has begun but the coming Fed day will probably throw in some wild swings. Almost everyone has been looking for much lower gold and most probably still are. Even my “no-brainer” $1450 area hasn’t been reached yet many are calling for well under $1400.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44235089084&a=690290530

          • On October 26, 2019 at 4:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, Gold did break up above the trendline in the consolidation triangle, and it does appear it decided to break to the upside, but I agree, we’ll have to see how things jostle out after the expected Fed cut this next week.

            Most have been calling for Gold to drift lower into year-end (pointing to a head and shoulders top being completed), but the market loves to dash people’s expectations. It actually would be great to see a rally from here as it would catch most folks with their pants down and the shorts would have to cover.

          • On October 26, 2019 at 7:28 pm,
            Matthew says:

            It’s a great sign for the whole sector that silver looks so good relative to gold.
            SLV:GLD daily:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p85666730679

          • On October 26, 2019 at 7:32 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On October 26, 2019 at 7:34 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On October 26, 2019 at 7:48 pm,
            Matthew says:

            IPT saw its highest volume of the month on Friday and looks good to go. Unlike silver, it bullishly finished close to its high for the day…
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p02163947956

          • On October 27, 2019 at 4:41 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, I did a double-take on IPT on Friday when I saw it move so strong (up 12.7% on the day).

            It is a positive for the whole sector that Silver is set up stronger than Gold, and that IPT is set up stronger than Silver, but it would be nice to see follow through confirmation this week. Great SLV:GLD and IPT charts!

          • On October 27, 2019 at 4:46 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I particularly liked the BreakOut and BackTest chart on IPT. Looking good!

          • On October 27, 2019 at 6:21 am,
            Excelsior says:

            ASM Avino Silver & Gold was also up 12.5% on Friday, and many of the Silver stocks were up 4-6%, so that was a nice rally in the sector to close last week.

          • On October 27, 2019 at 10:22 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I’ve started getting into position with Defiance Silver (DEF) and was thrilled that it was up 19% on Friday, but saddened that I’m not fully positioned yet. :O

          • On October 27, 2019 at 6:26 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Don’t bother answering my prior question regarding your involvement as now I know.

          • On October 27, 2019 at 10:31 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Defiance Announces Appointment of Orequest as Technical Advisor
            October 22nd, 2019

            https://www.defiancesilver.com/news/defiance-announces-appointment-of-orequest-as-technical-advisor

          • On October 27, 2019 at 6:25 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I find this to be an interesting company and will contact it this coming week. What is your interest in Defiance?

          • On October 27, 2019 at 10:41 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Orex Minerals (REX) was also up 18.75% on Friday, which was a nice response to Silver’s uptick.

          • On October 27, 2019 at 3:04 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Even little SGN Scorpio Gold was up 11.8% on Friday.

            Here is their new Corporate Presentation:

            https://scorpiogold.com/site/assets/files/5652/corporatepresentation.pdf

          • On October 27, 2019 at 5:51 pm,
            Big Al says:

            The Market is coming back as evidenced by Scorpio Gold. What a deal!

          • On October 27, 2019 at 6:58 pm,
            Wolfster says:

            Could add USA to the list of strong closes on Friday

          • On October 28, 2019 at 4:08 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Big Al Defiance has land that was previously only drilled out to a certain level and is very mineral rich. They’ve been stalled for a while silver prices were in the dumps, but with rising metals prices and more interest in Silver companies, they should get enough interest to continue drilling their thesis and produce an updated resource estimate. Bob Moriarty first let me know about it, and then I watched an interesting interview from Brent Cook years ago that he did with them at a trade show using their drilling map that intrigued me. Jordan Roy-Bryne put out a message saying they looked oversold recent, and I figured I was overdue to get a position started. It isn’t my favorite stock or anything, but just seemed like an intriguing Silver exploration story with some upside yet to be discovered.

          • On October 28, 2019 at 4:11 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Funny Big Al!. No I don’t believe Scorpio is a sole harbinger, but just a contributing factor. The didn’t have any key news out, just like Defiance or Impact, or Avino, or Orex, but those companies all had nice moves up in tandem. When the tiny Jrs start getting a bid on no news, but on metals price increases. then that is nice to see.

          • On October 28, 2019 at 4:13 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Wolfster – Agreed regarding USA Americas Gold and Silver for a move in a larger mid-tier. Yes, there were lots of mid-tier producers on the move the end of last week as well.

            Looking forward to see if we can get some follow through here on this Fed announcement week.

      • On October 26, 2019 at 12:11 pm,
        Matthew says:
  7. On October 26, 2019 at 12:14 pm,
    Matthew says:
  8. On October 26, 2019 at 1:23 pm,
    Matthew says:

    SILJ breakout on massive volume — third largest daily volume in its history…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p70508268414&a=639264264

  9. On October 26, 2019 at 2:48 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold closes above $1500 for the second consecutive day

    Gary Wagner – October 25, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #VIDEO

    https://thegoldforecast.com/video/gold-closes-above-1500-second-consecutive-day

  10. On October 26, 2019 at 3:04 pm,
    David says:

    Thank you Excelsior, Matthew and Craig Hemke, and many others. I read any sites including 321gold, Ceo.ca, Stockhouse, Hot Copper, McAlvaney, Kitco (Daniella), Jay Taylor, Eric Sprott and as many presentations from metals conferences as I can. All are valuable and in reality reinforcing of one another. I value all the input as they all contribute to due diligence which is so important during these days of market manipulation and fraudulent trading systems.

    • On October 26, 2019 at 3:08 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks for the kind words David. I enjoy those same sources of input and would also add mining.com and palisade radio as a few other good hubs of information.

      Cheers!

      • On October 26, 2019 at 3:11 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Speaking of Craig and Eric Sprott – here is their weekly wrap:

        >> Sprott Money News Weekly Wrap-up – 10.25.19

        “Eric Sprott discusses the latest surge in precious metals prices as well as the latest earnings reports from some of the mining companies.”

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh9uMgJCNMU

      • On October 26, 2019 at 3:35 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Hi Ex, I may be old fashioned but I still like Resource World magazine. The latest issue has some good articles on The Golden Triangle, Rare Earths, and The Price Of Silver. DT

        • On October 26, 2019 at 3:54 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Hey DT. Yes, good one, as I’ve seen a few good articles from Resource World Magazine over the years for featured companies, and there aren’t many places where the specialty metals get some coverage.

          • On October 26, 2019 at 3:59 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here’s interesting interview from Peter “Newton” Bell and Chis Berry that gets into why new Nickel supply is as important as somethe some of the battery metals that were en vogue a few years back like Lithium and Cobalt. While most of nickel supply is still for steel, there is growing demand in the batteries sector.

            __________________________________

            Chris Berry, October 2019, O&M Partners, Nickel & Batteries

            by @Newton on 23 Oct 2019

            https://ceo.ca/@newton/chris-berry-october-2019-om-partners-nickel-batteries

          • On October 26, 2019 at 4:28 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Speaking of Nickel, from earlier this week….

            > PapuaNewGuinea Orders China-owned Ramu #Nickel Plant To Shut
            Reuters | October 24, 2019

            https://www.mining.com/web/papua-new-guinea-orders-china-owned-ramu-nickel-plant-to-shut/

  11. On October 26, 2019 at 3:06 pm,
    David says:

    Dave Kranzler and the Adens also as I am a subscriber.

    • On October 26, 2019 at 3:16 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Based on the Aden’s free material that I’ve come across over the years, they seem very worthwhile. I hope that’s been your experience.

      • On October 26, 2019 at 3:57 pm,
        David says:

        Matthew: re: Adens
        I started back with a Merrill Lynch broker in the 70s and after he was convicted of child molestation. I switched to Mutual Funds as I was in the military, and came across The Growth Fund Guide that was written by a guy in South Dakota who was into Dow Theory. By the late 1990s he was discovering the massive debt, corruption of Central Banking and was promoting PM Funds. He got sick and passed his followers to Richard Russell. Russell was strong into Dow Theory and gold, but then passed away. His organization referred us to the Aden Sisters as they were considered as excellent with Dow Theory and technical analysis. That change of news letters has been good. The Aden Sisters are respected as is Louise Yamana. They acknowledge that the input of questionable data from the Federal Government is concerning, but until more reliable data is available, they feel a responsibility to use that data to guide subscribers. They are conservative but for a reason. Their monthly report is thorough and their weekly updates limited to reinforcement or changes to the last monthly issue. They have certain ways of monitoring data according to Dow Theory, but no specific details in order to protect their approach:

        • On October 26, 2019 at 4:13 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          David – great post sharing your background and interest in Dow Theory.

          Yes, Louise Yamada is a very sharp economist and technician. Good stuff!

        • On October 26, 2019 at 7:26 pm,
          Matthew says:

          David, thanks for sharing that. What an interesting and unforeseen way to end up with the Adens.

  12. On October 26, 2019 at 4:42 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold Mining Companies Suck And That’s Why They Offer A Great Investment Opportunity Today

    by @Goldfinger on 23 Oct 2019

    “Mr. Rasteh makes numerous key points as to why the gold mining industry has destroyed US$157 billion of capital over the last decade:”

    > Misaligned management compensation structures that are more dependent upon reserve growth or annual production as opposed to net income profitability or share price performance.
    > A tremendous amount of money deployed/wasted in various fruitless exploration endeavors.
    > Terrible M&A decisions.
    > Excessive management compensation.

    “That’s looking in the rearview mirror and also helps to explain why gold miners are currently very shy in terms of making any large acquisitions; over the past decade large acquisitions have generally been disastrous for gold producers. On the positive side of things Rasteh makes a compelling case for why mid-tier gold producers are attractively valued relative to the senior producers. Moreover, the seniors are not replacing reserves at a fast enough pace and their only choice will be to acquire mid-tier producers and/or junior explorers/developers in order to replenish the gold they are producing every day. ”

    “So, why should one invest in a sector that has obliterated investor capital at an alarming rate over the last decade? ”

    https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-mining-companies-suck-and-thats-why-they-offer-a-great-investment-opportunity-today

  13. On October 26, 2019 at 7:39 pm,
    Matthew says:

    GDM ran into speed line resistance on Friday but I don’t think the bears will be enjoying that victory for long…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p07773699522&a=673663556

  14. On October 26, 2019 at 8:26 pm,
    johnnygeneric says:

    The dollar is not finished going up. We can see anywhere from 102 or even up to 104

  15. On October 27, 2019 at 5:11 am,
    Wolfster says:

    I will try posting this again….apparently it did pass the moderators the first time and I have no clue why
    I have a buddy who sells automated saws for tress construction and he says business is picking up steam as most tress manufacturers have 20+ yr old equipment and the feeling is the next big housing boom is coming
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/10/14/the-biggest-housing-boom-in-history-has-just-begun/#508caf7825b0

    • On October 27, 2019 at 5:20 am,
      Wolfster says:

      Didn’t pass…….I did write more personal commentary about how I found it interesting especially since I was of the belief that the US economy was headed(or had already started) into a recession.A housing boom and electric car production increasing at a time when few new copper mines are coming into production and many of the large SA ones have mined their high grade ore makes one wonder if these low copper prices can persist

      • On October 27, 2019 at 6:26 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Good points on Copper supply/demand, and there have been some larger mines shuddered due to the low prices, and most of the development stage or exploration stage companies have sold off hard. The ongoing saga of the US/China trade deal isn’t helping, and neither is the global slowdown in growth.

        A few years back many were optimistic about large Infrastructure projects in multiple countries, but it seems those have remained on hold for the near-term. If some of those large projects get traction again, then Copper and related stocks would have a few years to run. For now it is a waiting game in the base metals space, however Zinc & Lead did turn up a bit in the last few weeks, and Nickel has been running, so maybe Dr Copper will wake up from his nap soon.

  16. On October 27, 2019 at 8:38 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    In the past a corporation could easily find ways to put it’s surplus cash out on call at 10 to 12 per cent without doing it through a member bank of The Federal Reserve system. Corporations are eager to put their excess funds to use, but now with such low interest rates the corporations simply buy back their own shares. This is one reason there is a liquidity problem that The Fed has created, and might I add a huge one. DT

    • On October 27, 2019 at 5:46 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I haven’t spoken to Mickey for years and that is my fault. He is a very interesting man. I credit him for his honest attitude: “What you see is what you get”