Chris Temple from The National Investor – Tue 31 Dec, 2019

A focus on the US Markets heading into 2020

With US markets up over 25% this year it’s hard to predict a similar outcome for next year. Chris Temple joins me to outline the drivers this year and what the keys will be for next year. Everyone is predicting a more volatile year but that can come in many forms.

Click here to visit Chris’s site and keep up to date on his investments.

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Comments:
  1. On December 31, 2019 at 11:08 am,
    Matthew says:

    I think the stock market will correct in the first quarter go higher into the election but there’s no way it will gain 25% in 2020.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p43737683007&a=710298026

  2. On December 31, 2019 at 11:15 am,
    Matthew says:
  3. On December 31, 2019 at 11:20 am,
    Matthew says:
  4. On December 31, 2019 at 12:43 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Just a quick reminder for anyone that wants to get in the ceo.ca stock picking contest for 2020 – today’s the last day to enter.

    1,054 contestants entered and there are still more picks coming in for a wild year to come.

    https://ceo.ca/index?5ccb6cf81eb2

  5. On December 31, 2019 at 1:42 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Here’s how the major ETFs finished the year (rounded off):
    GDX: 40%
    SGDM: 44%
    GDXJ: 40%
    GOAU: 54%
    SGDJ: 37%
    SIL: 35%
    SILJ: 55%

    My portfolio: 70%
    I’m not sure my gains were worth the added risk over GOAU and SILJ but I am comfortable with my approach considering the almost “lottery” potential that the ETFs can’t offer.

    • On January 1, 2020 at 3:42 am,
      paul says:

      Not bad. Almost as good as GS.

      • On January 1, 2020 at 11:29 am,
        Matthew says:

        I realized an error in my calculations; it turns out my portfolio is up almost 73%.
        Is GS Gary Savage or Goldman Sachs?

        • On January 8, 2020 at 1:18 pm,
          paul says:

          GS is of course the great Gary Savage. He made 108%.

  6. On December 31, 2019 at 2:38 pm,
    Bill says:

    I was here 4 years ago stating the Dow would run. The Gold bugs that have been calling for a crash are fools as I stated repeatedly.
    I do own PMs now and I think these guys are BANG on below. Don’t listen to Moriarty the guy I called out. Capital will continue to flee to the US for safety and the USD…. the same fools said would be destroyed. LOL Then it will hit the ditch….
    https://thetrendletter.com/2019/12/31/the-looming-repo-crisis/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Looming%20Repo%20Crisis&utm_content=The%20Looming%20Repo%20Crisis+CID_c1ba8561249883039eae96634048fc36&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Read%20entire%20article

    • On December 31, 2019 at 3:33 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I don’t see how you’re different than those “gold bugs” Bill. Here’s what you said just before GDX soared 50% in 3 months (406% annualized, that’s 5x):
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p28203887903&a=686037432

      This gold bug, btw, said there would not be a crash.

      • On December 31, 2019 at 8:40 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Beaver had an Uncle Billy, June called him “Bullsh*t” in Flannel”, need I say more! LOL! DT

      • On January 1, 2020 at 9:28 am,
        Bill says:

        Because PMs are scary as hell with volatility and a FEAR driven asset. I only own maybe 10% of my net worth. They overshoot way lower than anyone expects at times and also the opposite to the upside. I like a long term all clear and my signal.
        Can’t put millions In PM stocks. I own a bit now as the longer term looks better. I rarely look at them. Gold bugs that’s all they talk about like there,s no other asset class. There’s only certain times when you hold PMs. I don’t ever sell my commercial RE I keep buying. The stock markets for gambling.

        • On January 1, 2020 at 11:50 am,
          Matthew says:

          You can easily put millions into PM stocks. All that volatility is the reason I like the sector. Moves that take years in other sectors happen in weeks or months and that spells opportunity.
          The inherent leverage in the miners always cuts both ways no matter the quality of the company. With the bigger companies like CDE, stocks that have the biggest moves up almost always have the biggest moves down and those that rise less tend to fall less but the juniors are different. Many of them do not perform to the upside when they should yet still fall massively in a downturn. There are many good reasons for this which is why I do not like to own very many and underweight the riskier ones that do make into my holdings.

          • On January 1, 2020 at 12:52 pm,
            Bill says:

            Mathew if I was a good as you maybe…I like bricks and mortar. I sleep like a baby.
            I own some big PM companies where I put say $40K like YRI. Got some ZJG and a few pennies good enough for me..Mega dynamics in this game as there is constant timing and management to keep abreast…
            RE is easy peazy as you can leverage and just run it. My one property paid a couple mil for 3 yrs ago now irreplaceable for $5m. I don’t have to declare gains pay taxes but getting a 8.5% annually and pay low taxes. I can head overseas and travel for a few months with little worry.
            Full disclosure I bought a couple you mention you had. Your heads always in the game…
            Wish I had time to copy your portfolio !

          • On January 1, 2020 at 12:54 pm,
            Bill says:

            Bobs done some great work but been dead wrong on the DOW melt down. Its not happening…YET, but it will eventually it as it needs a melt up first.

          • On January 1, 2020 at 1:41 pm,
            Wolfster says:

            Hey Bill. Good for you that you’ve made good money in RE…..but like every investment it’s all about timing. I remember more than a couple of friends who went bankrupt in the 80’s who thought they were making easy money in RE when the market crashed. We aren’t gold bugs here, we are investors. Gold is cyclical just like all the other commodities and stocks. The cycles are just shorter and more violent than say real estate(although RE can be very violent when it crashes as well)….to each his own. Just like the difference between Matthew and Excelsior when it comes to number of stocks in their portfolios.

      • On January 1, 2020 at 9:44 am,
        Bill says:

        Your right about one thing Mattew one better time it correct… The only industry that piles of companies go through reverse splits in a bear market.

    • On January 1, 2020 at 8:25 am,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      Bill:

      Do you really think anyone pays attention to your whining? Ok, you hate me and attack me at every opportunity when you come out of your rat hole.

      No one cares.

      • On January 1, 2020 at 9:31 am,
        Bill says:

        Mr DOW crash for 10 years Bob. PM sentiment is through the roof. You’ve been wrong so many times its embarrassing. A broken clocks got a good track record.

  7. On December 31, 2019 at 6:31 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Avi is right:
    Gold Investors Wrongly Fear The “COT”
    https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-investors-wrongly-fear-%E2%80%9Ccot%E2%80%9D

  8. On January 1, 2020 at 12:00 am,
    Matthew says:

    It just hit me that I forgot to answer a question from two days ago:

    On December 29, 2019 at 9:15 am,
    Pyriteinvestor says:
    Matthew,
    Do you have any targets for SILJ in 2020? Could SILJ reach 30 in the next 12 months?
    I have been lurking on KER since 2014 and your comments have saved me ton of money over the years.
    — — —

    Pyriteinvestor, I have guidelines more than targets and will probably have to adjust my expectations throughout the year but I think SILJ will reach its $20.50 Point & Figure chart price objective easily and will almost certainly go far higher if silver hits 25-26 as I think it will.

    Here’s food for thought. Silver went up 55% in 2016 while SILJ went up 393%. That’s more than 7 to 1 leverage. So let’s be conservative and assume that silver will only go up 30% this year (to about 23.30) and that SILJ will only return 5:1 leverage for a 150% gain. That would put SILJ at $31, and, again, I think the real potential for silver, and therefore, SILJ is far better than the assumptions in that example.

    So $30 in 12 months is a very realistic possibility even though it is far from guaranteed.

  9. On January 1, 2020 at 2:46 pm,
    Bill says:

    Mathew if you would indulge me. Whats your thoughts on BBB.V?
    I’ve got bout 40k
    Thanks

    • On January 1, 2020 at 3:17 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It is more volatile than most peers so it is quite risky on that front, obviously, but bankruptcy risk is nil and “opportunity cost risk” (the risk that it does nothing while the sector moves) is close to nil.
      I like it a lot and it has plenty of cash. I am very glad I added significantly to my several hundred thousand on the recent dip and am pretty sure I was right about the depth of the dip being caused by the expiration of the “4 month-and-a-day” hold on the shares from the last financing.
      The biggest risk by far appears to be the fate of silver itself, not debt, not politics, and not operations. Heck, not even a bad drill hole.
      Of course I like silver a lot right here and it does not have to go anywhere near the moon to cause BBB to move up very significantly by anyone’s standards.

      • On January 1, 2020 at 3:22 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Btw, silver just delivered a great gift for the new year in the form of a brand new quarterly chart MACD buy signal. Those tend to happen about once per decade. It also closed the quarter/year above the 34 quarter EMA for the first time since July, 2016.

    • On January 1, 2020 at 3:58 pm,
      Matthew says:
  10. On January 1, 2020 at 4:03 pm,
    Bill says:

    Thanks Mathew. The silver stocks have picked up on silver move rocketing higher. I like these stragglers BBB, ALO .. as they can really surprise if all goes well down the road. The metal windows here. Then time to be cautious and I really believe we are approaching a massive shit storm….the debt levels are insane…
    My plan was… All my RE paid for. Lots of cash for stress opportunities….and PMs. Still got some gold silver from 2001 buried. About $2000 CAD a coin…crazy. Cheers

  11. On January 1, 2020 at 4:33 pm,
    Matthew says:
  12. On January 1, 2020 at 5:17 pm,
    Bill says:

    Thanks
    Need a little pull back on it would be nice. That long term chart is one volatile mother trucker! Like I said you need to be active on this stuff. I personally don’t know anyone that can invest in this market. peeps come to me I say STAY away unless you got yrs in this biz. Hell most cant find $1000 spare….sad.

  13. On January 2, 2020 at 9:43 am,
    Matthew says:

    A leap above 18.40 is just what we need from silver this week…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=9&id=p71995681688&a=684782815

  14. On January 2, 2020 at 10:03 am,
    Matthew says:

    No cognitive dissonance here:
    Stewart Thomson says “…in socialist America, citizens are subject to an obscene progressive income tax system that is really a vile extortion racket. There’s also horrifying capital gains and property tax, and the government wallows with a 100%+ debt to GDP growth ratio.”
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_123119.html

  15. On January 2, 2020 at 10:12 am,
    Bill says:

    I know! Fat pigs that never get enough. So if you own a good chunk of RE with lots of cash flow you have to put everything legaly you can through the books. Fuel meals autos insurance to reduce your tax burden. Never sell or they take a pile of that. I think Canada is a joke now and Trudeau the biggest finacial illiterate there is.

  16. On January 2, 2020 at 10:52 am,
    Bill says:

    Sorry spelling. No glasses. Lol