Here are Doc’s updated thoughts on gold, GDX, and the US Markets
Doc joins me to share his updated thoughts on if gold can hold the $1,550 level and where he sees GDX going. What is very noteworthy is now Doc has moved up his timeline on when he thinks gold will test the recent high around $1,600. We also discuss the potential and timing of a significant drop in US markets.
Coeur Mining dips as production data disappoints
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3532707-coeur-mining-dips-production-data-disappoints
Matt, it was already over extended so a bad number is short term devastating for the stock price.
Where do you see it near term?
It has already retraced 61.8% of the move since the October low so it might have already bottomed if the metals are about to rise. If not, the 50% level of the entire move since May is a logical support (at 5.54). Worst case looks like roughly 4.95.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p81003322775&a=541041866
To me, it looks like CDE will test its oct lows.
Matthew I asked your opinion of CDE last spring when it was about 2.90, and you liked it, but I bought irving and Sandspring and Miramont instead. O well…
Wow, that’s a ways down, CaliJoe but you nailed the sector in general last week before it began.
Bonzo, at least SAND did ok.
Irving did even better. It has doubled and might go a lot higher. Still hoping Miramont can hit the motherlode in Peru.
Morris Hubbard tripled his holdings in NEM and GOLD yesterday and likes NGD too.
NEM is my biggest metal holding even though I never bought it. I got it it when it bought FNV long ago, and then got more when it took over GG last year.
That’s a great way to end up with NEM. I have also never bought it but have owned FNV and GG before.
Btw, I think Hubbard’s timing is dead on.
I bought some more at 5,87. Let’s see how this plays out.
Good luck to you’all!
Great Comments…………….jmo
This is the way this site should be…………participation ….love it……..thanks
Matthew, glad you agree with Morris on NEM and GOLD. Rob McEwen says that since NEM is the only gold stock in the S&P 500, all the big funds will have to buy it in a gold bull market. My cost basis in NEM is $17 a share and is $25 in the new FNV, and $26 or $27 in RGLD. I seem to do better in royalty companies and streamers than in miners, but maybe that will change in a roaring bull market for gold and silver.
Rob is right of course, which is part of the reason some big miners sometimes move counter to the rest on certain days.
The royalty/streaming stocks are much lower risk endeavors than the miners so they easily outperform in a buy-and-hold portfolio most of the time. The miners should outperform during a strong uptrend for the whole sector.
I saw that fishing line sell off in CDE Coeur, and feel it was an overreaction to that news by investors, so for the first time since Coeur’s takeover of Northern Empire, I picked up a position in Coeur Mining.
While the move down may not be completely over, I’m prepared to add a 2nd tranche as longer term I’m not worried about them and they are solid producers.
The first dip down went to the 89 day EMA, and the recent dip went down and tagged the 144 day EMA (so I got an initial position). If it goes down to the 233 day EMA I’ll buy a second tranche.
Doc, if gold moves down in short term what does your charts have for bottom Target in GDX?? I have a good amount of stocks in portfolio but looking to put some long term money in gdx and like to avg in here but like to know if we could see 27 taken out before next run up. Thanks.
Doc, if gold moves down in short term what does your charts show for bottom Target in GDX?? I have a good amount of stocks in portfolio but looking to put some long term money in gdx. Thanks.
Paul, the technicals are pretty neutral right now and it’s difficult to say but my intuition tells me we have the potential to see a level between 27.5 and 28 next week. Then we could have a rebound and as we move further into the spring could see between 26.5 and 27. That latter area is suspect. I’ll get a better feel for that possibility by mid February.
Morris Hubbartt and Matthew are bullish on gold and silver stocks today, but Adam Hamilton and Rambus are looking for a near term correction. They are all smart but can’t all be right, so I’ll keep the faith in gold and silver long term and hold on tight. They all like gold and silver long term.
Hamilton has remained way too bearish for a long time based in large part on the COT reports. He’s a smart guy but I believe his assumptions are way off.
Clive Maund is also bearish short term, but Stewart Thompson thinks gold’s correction will be over soon and then it will rocket up to 1800. We’ll have to let Doc or Big Al break the 3-3 tie.
Changing topics a bit, the Brixton Chart looks wonderful. The PSAR on the daily BBBXF chart is around $0.16 and is around $0.30 on the weekly and the weekly BB are pulling in nicely now. The coiled spring is getting ready to explode IMHO. As a result, I sold a strip of my Group Ten and bought more shares. I realize it has the potential to trade sideways for the next 1-2 months, but it really seems like it could happen any day now.
Charles, i’m getting ready to add some BBB soon, however, i don’t expect a big move up in the near future
I like that my bellwether IPT gained 3.8% today while AXU (TSE) dropped by that amount and SILJ dropped by 4.4%.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p42089457268&a=661530517
Yes, and a similar peer to to Impact (IPT), Santacruz Silver (SCZ) was up 7.41% on the day, so these are both encouraging. I’ve been pair trading both a little as to their position size as they are both weighted more heavily in my portfolio, but the edge has been to Santacruz for most of the last year, where IPT had it the year before. I anticipate rotating about 1/4 or the 1/3 of my SCZ position over to IPT soon, as the pendulum swings back, but both companies have amazing torque to the upside.
I had posted on Dec 30th about the resistance being tagged in the IPT:SCZ chart:
______________________________________________
On December 30, 2019 at 10:02 am,
Excelsior says:
“IPT:SCZ looks like it has hit interesting resistance as well.”
ISVLF is up 37% vs SILJ in the last six weeks and is just getting started…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISVLF%3ASILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p24048281912
Charles I certainly hope you’re right about bbb here, especially the part about sideways for the next 1-2months. I’m no technician and think that to move the stock needs a catalyst which means drilling results. Consequently i fear that catalyst doesn’t come until June at the earliest…and that’s only if the drill bit hits.
Brixton presents Monday in Vancouver. I’m expecting boiler plate. The recent letter to the shareholders already outlined 2020 drilling in Montana and Thorn instead of concentrating on Thorn. Even then, at Thorn the plan is to explore the Chivas Corridor over 3 kms from hole #150.
It’s nice to go elephant hunting but i’m disenchanted that a more sustained Thorn exploration predicated on rational stepouts from #150 isn’t in the cards. I mean they drilled only 2 holes near #150 and 6 at Chivas which is over 3 kms away.
Blazesb, I see no reason for BBB to stop providing big leverage to silver while we wait for drill results. It more than quadrupled off of the June low and it went more than 23x off of the 2015 low. That’s roughly 10x and 20x leverage, respectively. Yes, it then came back down following each move because leverage works both ways.
Silver is technically lagging gold by almost a year. When it finally gets to where gold is right now, BBB and peers will be far higher.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63300099761
Mathew, you are correct about bbb being leveraged to silver. I think that leverage constitutes the floor/basement upon which the stock is currently resting.
It’s just that at some point I fear that Gary Thompson will trim his exploration sails to the prevailing breeze silver in this case when an alternative approach would be to thoroughly commit to exploring the area around Thorn hole #150.
When silver moves and takes Brixton with it we will be very happy indeed. Still, hole #150, one of the best holes of 2019 anywhere, is being, relatively speaking, ignored.
As always, thank you for your thoughtful reply.
Doc, really nice call on CDE!
I only wish you could share those bygget calls with us beforehand.
Cheers!