Weekend Show – Sat 8 Feb, 2020

Hour 1 – What To Look For In Metals Stocks

This weekend I spend the first half of the show with generalist investors sharing where they see the balance between risk on and risk off investing. Both have different drivers but the fact that there is a lot of liquidity in the system is a key driver of each.

Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com. Also be sure to go through the daily editorials from the week to keep up to date on company news and the key data from this week.

  • Segment 1 – Dana Lyons kicks off the show with his trading strategies for US markets, the US Dollar, and safe havens such as gold and bonds.
  • Segment 2 – Mike Larson shares his presentation from the Money Show in Orlando that he is presenting this weekend. It deals with finding safe income and undervalued sectors in the markets.
  • Segment 3 & 4 – Adrian Day joins me for 2 segments focused on what he looks for in a wide range of resource companies. We start with the major miners, then move to royalty and streaming companies, and wrap it up with exploration plays.

Exclusive Company Updates This Week

Segment 1 – Dana Lyons
Segment 2 – Mike Larson
Segment 3 & 4 – Adrian Day

  1. On February 8, 2020 at 5:14 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Thanks Cory & Big Al for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews, and another great weekend show on the books. The Korelin Economics Report is greatly appreciated by so many, and brings together such an interesting cross-section of people to share ideas, share investing ideas, and even share a laugh together.

    • On February 8, 2020 at 5:33 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Ebolan and OOTB chided me on Thursday to write a book on “The History of the KER.”

      The book is sure to be an international best seller and conversation starter on coffee tables across the globe. It didn’t get posted to Thursday’s daily editorial with Mr. T until early Friday morning, so just in case anyone missed it, here are the chapters of days gone by here on the KER. A special thanks to all the interesting characters that have made this site so unique, so wild, and so beneficial all these years. Cheers!

      > The History of the Korelin Economics Report

      Chapter 1 – Radio legend Big Al gets smitten with Kitco
      Chapter 2 – Early Days w/ Roger Weigand & Peter Grandich
      Chapter 3 – Eddy Ebolan, Jerry…The Long…OOTB, IrishTony – Three Amigos greet the people, share the news of the day, and share a laugh
      Chapter 4 – Matthew the chart Jedi – Technical Analysis to protect the republic
      Chapter 5 – CFS2000 blazing his own trail
      Chapter 6 – DT is a technology prophet and awaits the replacement of humans with robots
      Chapter 7 – BB and b, not to be confused with Bonzo Barzini
      Chapter 8 – MarkedtoFuture, Chartster, Wolfster, SilverDollar, Dan calgary, Glenfidish, Skeeta, Tad, Andrew the Rev / Archdeacon Andrew, Confused, Dennis M. O’Neil, Vortex, FranSix, Dragonite, John W. Robertson, Gabriel, Bob UK, Jerry(Gator)M, JJ, benb, Paul L, russell s hamilton, James(the lesser), Mark Alan, proud canuck, Irwin, Keep Stacking, Jason, Silverbug Dave, jhpace1, Mike, JMiller, 4 oz, Stephan B Feibish, Wayne, victor, Steele, Wiseguy
      Chapter 9 – Doc-Charlie goes from blog insights to daily editorial guest
      Chapter 10 – Cory is boy wonder, Big Owl is the dark knight
      Chapter 11 – The Good Ole’ Days – Rick Ackerman, Chris Temple, Doc Postma, Gary Savage, Jay Taylor
      Chapter 12 – Bob Moriarty – wise, witty, well-informed
      Chapter 13 – Enter The Crazies – Who the hell is Fanky?; apoclapse w/ HeavyHitter, Crazy Marc and the Baltic Dry Index, Birdman becomes Farmer, TraderJake is a snake, conspiracies w/ JohnK, DeepPurpleHaze hates Turd Ferguson, Bo Polony is full of baloney, and the near implosion of the blog
      Chapter 14 – Goodbye Gary, Hello Avi & LPG
      Chapter 15 – Sean Brodrick, David Morgan, Rick Rule, John Kaiser, Jeff Deist, Ron Stoeferle, Jeffrey Christian, Brien Lundin, Peter Hug, John Rubino, Axel Merk, Adrian Day, George Gero, Brent Cook, Byron King, Jayant Bhandari, Peter Boockvar,
      Chapter 16 – Cory is doing great hosting the investing interviews full time – A Star Is Born
      Chapter 17 – KER politics – the debate never end – blog rants, fights, comedy, and friends
      Chapter 18 – Dana Lyons, Dan Oliver, Marc Chandler, Trader Vic, Jesse Felder, David Erfle, Joe Mazumdar, Lobo Tiggre, Michael Belkin, Turd Ferguson-Craig Hemke, Jordan Roy-Byrne, Chris Vermuelen, Erik Wetterling, Rick Bensignor, Mike Larson, Chris Kimble,
      Chapter19 – Jim McKinney, Chris Martenson, Harlan Ulman, Dr John Huber, Jeff Pontius, Jeff Deist, Ronald Kessler, Stephen Gregory, Charlotte Cuthbertson, Michael Stumo, Daniel McAdams, Valentin Schmid, Dr Freida
      Chapter 20 – Cryptos, Cannabis, and eSports – there goes the speculative money away from the Resource Sector, Sentiment Wash
      Chapter 21 – Spanky gets cranky, then takes a nap
      Chapter 22 – Make new friends, but keep the old… one is Silver, and the other’s Gold – Wolfster, Charles, Ozibatla, Marty, David, Buzz, Blue, GH, pete, Tad, Miklo, Thomas, CaliJoe, Nigel, BDC, spacenormal, Anders from Copenhagen, blazesb, Chatyak, cmc, pardu, Larry, MadeOfRubber, Mickey Mantle, janturco, johnnygeneric, Bill in Tokyo, Bill, kingstonbill, Chris from OZ, Ulf, Marlborough
      Chapter 23 – A Prosperous Age – Everyone gets rich in resource stocks from 2020-2022
      Chapter 24 – The Future – Investors, Listeners, and Readers that haven’t even found the KE Report yet carry the torch forward
      Chapter 25 – Cory’s daughter becomes the new guest host after graduating from college with a communications degree.

      • On February 8, 2020 at 5:58 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Our buddy Glenfidish surfaced from his undercover research and responded back on Thursday:

        On February 7, 2020 at 3:43 am,
        Glenfidish says:

        “Wow Ex! Incredible summary/breakdown…”

        “Thanks for the recognition and also great 😆. We do have a unique group in here and as the years have gone by its has always been a place with open arms and food for thought unlike any. So a big thanks to Al and Cory and all the contributors thoroughly the years.”

        • On February 8, 2020 at 6:04 am,
          Excelsior says:

          On February 7, 2020 at 6:09 am,
          Excelsior says:

          “Hi Glenfidish – Yes, agreed. Big Al and Cory and all the KER contributors have created a unique platform of sharing information, ideas, breaking news, with a little bit of tomfoolery mixed in for good measure. It’s a motley crew for sure!”

          On February 7, 2020 at 8:35 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          “Ditto……….IF, OWL does not comment on the above book , we will just change the name…….LOL”

          On February 7, 2020 at 9:55 am,
          Excelsior says:

          How about “Big Owl – Adventures in Wonderland” …. or “KERland”

          or how about:

          “KER – Two Guys, a Radio Blog, and a Dream”

          On February 7, 2020 at 1:19 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          “I think some of the additional titles suggestion, might make a good second book…..We know the first book is sure to sell out, in advance of printing…… especially, if there are any graphs and charts….. 🙂 “

          • On February 8, 2020 at 6:47 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            I think the new book should be called “Utopia”, because all of our stock picks are going to bring us a lavish lifestyle where we can sit back in our lazyboy chairs and be served by robotic appliances, that will look after our every needs. LOL! DT

          • On February 8, 2020 at 7:01 am,
            Excelsior says:

            DT – “Utopia” Great idea to rename Chapter 23, and maybe the follow up book.

            The lavish lifestyle awaits… ; )

          • On February 8, 2020 at 7:10 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Tonight I will be off to the 2020 Valentine’s Sweet Heart Dance at The Garden Inn with two pretty brunette girls both wearing matching red dresses. I intend to stay out of trouble and behave myself. DT

          • On February 8, 2020 at 7:14 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Double-trouble. Enjoy the evening you ole’ charmer.

      • On February 8, 2020 at 1:07 pm,
        bonzo barzini says:

        Thanks, Excelsior, for this trip down memory lane. How did you remember all those characters? Amazing what we have learned here. And it was great to see Bobby Knight back at I.U. today for the first time in 20 years with so many of his old players. Students could scalp their tickets today for $3000. That would have paid for my tuition and room and board for a year in 1971-1974.

        • On February 8, 2020 at 1:12 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed Bonzo Barzini – quite a cast of characters popping in or sharing insights over the years here on the KER. Cheers!

          • On February 8, 2020 at 7:59 pm,
            Glenfidish says:


            Thanks as well once again for remembering us all and putting stamp to a hall of fame tribute. I’m truly thankful to all of you who keep this blog going on the hourly, daily and weekly!

            It is really refreshing to come in here and read everyone’s perspective of things with stocks/economics and world news!

            I’m not sure when precious metals miners will move again, but I’m 100% sure that they are extremely u set values and 100% sure gold is going at the minimum to $2500 if not more. Stay the course and remain patient.

            Cheers to all and to all a goodnight.

          • On February 8, 2020 at 8:27 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed Glenfidish – well-stated.

          • On February 9, 2020 at 5:56 am,
            Wolfster says:

            Thanks for the inclusion down memory lane………….does make me a tad sad in a way knowing I missed out on a lot as a johnny come lately. 😞

          • On February 9, 2020 at 6:51 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Wolfster it has been great having you here ever since you arrived, and if you really want to go through anything you missed, the good news is that it’s all stored on the blog if you just go back and review the older shows.

            Really most of the time a great majority were wrong-footed anyway about Oil, the supposed death of the US Dollar, the end of the Bond market, what the FED policy would be, and a large number were expecting news highs in the PMs later 2011 and 2012, and were hoping the correction was over all the way down to the Dec 2015 lows.

            Then there was a whole group of negative nancies convinced that the bear market was not over in 2016, 2017, 2018 that kept calling for lower lows in the $900-$500 range before Gold and the PM sector bottomed. In reality and on any chart they refused to reference, Gold had added $200-$300, put in a series of higher lows, and was bumping it’s head on overhead resistance in the $1360’s -$1370s — which was all quite bullish, as was evidienced by the next leg of the breakout in 2019 and the early part of 2020.

            Obviously many of those folks left the resource investing sector completely in desperation , frustration, embarrassment, due to health reasons, or a few were shown the door for being rude and combatitive.

            There was the Rare Earths bubble in 2009-2011, the Lithium bubble from 2015-2017, and I believe you were here for the Cobalt Bubble in 2017-2018, the Zinc run in 2017-2018, and the Crypto parabolic move from 2016-2017. They were all interesting, but the most interesting future in the Precious Metals is over the next 2-3 years, and the base metals likely have a nice cycle in front of them about 1-2 years out that will last for 5-7 years, so the best is yet to come.

            May everyone’s future in their wealth, health, family, mental, and spiritual path’s be very prosperous in 2020 and beyond.

      • On February 9, 2020 at 12:31 am,
        Thomas says:

        I thought Jay Taylor was the early days (he was a regular guest way before he started with his own radio show)?
        Big Al knows better 😊

        • On February 9, 2020 at 7:05 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah, I probably should have included Jay Taylor earlier in Chapter 2 with Roger Wiegand and Peter Grandich, as Jay had been here since early days, but Chris Temple has also been here quite a while, but I felt those 2 needed their own reference.

          I put Jay T. & Chris T. in with Rick A, Doc, and Gary because for a few years 2011-2016 they all did daily or weekly updates, and while things were often dicey on the blog due to terrible investor sentiment, bellyaching, and people blaming others for their bad investment decision, there still were some great and often very funny interviews with Big Al, where’d he stray way off the beaten path into side-tangents and we got to hear more their personal views on many life topics.

          Cory is a more focused and structured interviewer, and initially in 2014, 2015, and 2016 they split the interviewing duties together, but in 2017 & 2018 as Cory took over the role more solo, and Big Al focused almost exclusively on KER Politics, and Jay and Gary left the site due to conflict with trolls and with other guest speakers, then it really became more a power trio with Rick A, Chris T, and Doc, and then LPG and Avi came on more regularly for a while. There were always other guests during the week or on weekend shows, but they were the core group, and that is when they started the market recap end of day editorials.

          It’s a shame but I believe Big Al and Jay Taylor had a falling out about 2 years back, and I always appreciated Jay’s thoughts, company recommendation, and macro economics. I still visit his site from time to time and between he and Bob M. is why I got invested in a number of companies like Novo Resources early on. Jay Taylor also does key note presentations and company interviews at the Metal Investor Forum that are always nice to check in on.

          Jay Taylor, J Taylor’s Gold, Energy&Tech Stocks
          Metals Investor Forum on Jan 17-18, 2020 #VIDEO


      • On February 9, 2020 at 12:40 am,
        Thomas says:

        On chapter 15 you probably need sub chapters. These guys are worse an own chapter, each of them -:-)

        • On February 9, 2020 at 7:13 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Thomas I agree that those industry giants in Chapter 15, and 18 & 19 all are “worth”
          their own chapters, but most of those folks only did 1-off interviews during a weekly editorial or would show up occasionally on the Weekend Shows, so I grouped them all together. There are also other guests that should be included I’m sure, but it was just a stream of consciousness post from Thursday and more of a tribute, a roast, and a thank you for all the great years of programming, interviews, and blog antics here on the KE Report.

          It’s been a unique beacon of light in the marketplace with some of the more interesting pundits, economists, philosophers, political junkies, company interviews, and newsletter writers for years, and more than anything the book joke was more a look back and thank you to all the people that made it happen over the years.

          • On February 9, 2020 at 7:23 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Really the 3 Amigos – Eddy Ebolan (Ken), Jerry… OOTB…The Long, and IrishTony should probably write the book on the KER History as they’ve been here the longest.

            They were the merry pranksters giving the Big Owl a good ribbing when I started reading/lurking here in 2009/2010. I didn’t start posting until 2011 sporadically, and then got more active in 2012, so I’m sure I missed a lot that happened prior to that in the chapters of the book posted above. OOTB, IrishT, Matthew, and CFS were the first folks that talked with me here on the blog and were welcoming and thought provoking and I thank them for that.

            Apologies to any guest speakers and blog contributors that were left out as the book post was meant to be inclusive to ALL the folks that made the KER such a great place, but it’s impossible to remember or mention everyone. Ever Upward!

          • On February 9, 2020 at 8:21 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ex……we have all certainly benefited by your contributions…..
            The commentary…….is as or more important than some of the guest speakers…..JMO
            The Ker would certainly not be what it is, without the participation….of many fine folks.
            It has been a real trip, to go thought the ups and downs of this mixed up market and govt nut jobs.
            PS……..Appreciate the OUTLINE of the HISTORY OF KER……….. 🙂

          • On February 9, 2020 at 8:46 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks OOTB. Yes, agreed it has been a real trip for sure this last decade, and believe the commentary & links to other sites that folks posted, that had more impact sometimes than the guest speakers. It was cumulative effect of all of it for sure.

            I’m really looking forward to the next decade 2020-2030 and then I’m buying an island and going off-the-grid for the balance of my life. 🙂

          • On February 9, 2020 at 9:10 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            You might be able to get an Epstein Island cheap……once the cockroaches start scattering …. 🙂

          • On February 9, 2020 at 9:18 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Ha! No thanks, too much cleanup and bad juju. 😮

      • On February 9, 2020 at 4:48 pm,
        John Kruschke says:

        You forgot the shakedown I had with you over 9/11 and God that got me locked up in the KE Jail for the second time. Here I am back for a third.
        In my absence I did manage to ride Natural Shrimp from.01 to over .80 in two weeks last year. Another Epic trade I made along with the Bitcoin I nailed $100.00 from the top.
        As always I appreciate your knowledge and wisdom on the mining stocks. I can leave it at that.

        • On February 9, 2020 at 7:58 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          JohnK – I didn’t forget and hopefully 3rd times a charm for you here, and things can stay more civil and less combative.

          Congratulations on the Natural Shrimp trade from .01 to .80 (8000% increase).

          As for Bitcoin I though you mentioned exiting near $14k in 2017 and yet it continued up to $19k (a bit more of a spread than $100 from the top), but yes I remember you did well on that trade and mentioned that at the time.
          I had also made some money in 3 different crypto miners, but trimmed some back into the mania. As we know, the air came out of that bubble shortly after the 2017 holiday season, when Bitcoin crashed down 85% from $19K to $3k, and other altcoins were down 90-100% (with some completely disappearing).

          More recently, Bitcoin does look to be up and on the move again at $10k on the various geopolitical tensions and coronavirus. Many believe Bitcoin may take out the $19K peak from 2017 this year to break out to new highs, so it’s still a sector I’m watching but not very involved with at present.

          Thanks for the kind words on the mining stocks. Be well.

          • On February 9, 2020 at 8:08 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            There was a good daily editorial this week from Ryan Wilday where he discusses some potential higher targets for Bitcoin that is worth a listen for anyone following that space.



            Korelin Economics Report – Feb 6, 2020

            “Ryan Wilday, Cryptocurrency trader at Avi Gilburt’s Elliot Wave Trader website joins to share his updated targets for Bitcoin. He outlines a scenario where Bitcoin could move to over $100,000. We also chat about what will be some of the major drivers in the cryptocurrencies.”


      • On February 9, 2020 at 10:28 pm,
        Thomas says:

        25 chapters are quite lot. Maybe it would be a good idea to cluster them in episodes?

        Episode 0: Big Al Has An Idea – Kereport is born
        Episode 1: Pre Blog Area – Kereport As Online Radio Show?
        Episode 2: The Blog – Kereport Becomes A Global Investment Community
        Episode 3: (The Trump Effect 1?) – Big Al Gets Political
        Episode 4: (The Trump Effect 2?) –Big Al Returns To His Roots

        Ex: It is only a draft idea for your book. Feel free to adapt it.

        Ex: you should interview Big Al and the three Amigos for your book and maybe some of his friends (there are many)

        • On February 9, 2020 at 10:45 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks Thomas. I’m not really writing a book on the KER, butif I did I definitely wouldn’t leave out the importance Cory has played for years taking over the responsibility of the economic interviews, while Big Al focused exclusively on politics the last few years.

          In addition, If I was really writing a book on the history of the KER, then I’d continue to dedicate chapters highlighting the importance of the many guest speakers interviewed over the years, because their insights and range of topics covered is why people came back to listen week after week.

          On the hour 2 blog from this weekend I encouraged the 3 Amigos to write the book since they were here longer than almost anyone else. 🙂


  2. On February 8, 2020 at 7:49 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold Continues Bullish Consolidation

    by @Goldfinger on 7 Feb 2020

    “Gold in US dollar terms reached a pullback low near $1450 last November and proceeded to rally more than $150/oz in the span of less than two months. Since reaching $1613 in early January gold has spent the last month oscillating between $1540 and $1600.”


    • On February 8, 2020 at 7:55 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Coronavirus Limits Bullish Gold Sentiment from Strong Jobs Report

      February 7, 2020 – Gary Wagner #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #VIDEO

      “For the last five consecutive days the U.S. dollar has gained in strength. Over the last three consecutive days gold has been able to overcome dollar strength and close in positive territory. After reaching a low of approximately $1550 on Wednesday, market forces reversed the selling pressure that was evident on Monday and Tuesday and close higher not only Wednesday, but also Thursday and Friday. Today gold futures basis the most active April contract is currently trading up by $3.80 and fixed at $1573.80.”


  3. On February 8, 2020 at 8:50 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I like parties, but The Bull Party on Wall Street has me really worried, especially when it is encouraged by The President. He has no qualms about publicly stating that he does not consider interest rates are too low, which gives sponsorship to inflation. Lowering money rates stimulates an already over bloated stock market. The public does not see the danger however they will be the recipients of the downfall. DT

  4. On February 8, 2020 at 8:58 am,
    SilverDollar says:

    Anyone ever read The Macro Tourist? FWIW Kevin has some good thoughts on commodities and MOAS: https://themacrotourist.com/long-commodities/

    • On February 8, 2020 at 9:01 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, I receive The Macro Tourist emails every day and like checking in on Kevin’s perspective.

  5. On February 8, 2020 at 10:04 am,
    Fritz Bender says:

    Any guess on the next M % A?

    • On February 8, 2020 at 1:04 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      A few companies that look like potential M&A takeover targets are:

      – (MAE) Maritime Resources by (ANX) Anaconda Mining
      – (SIL) Silvercrest Metals by a larger Silver Producer (mostly like SSR with a 7.4% stake) or First Majestic that took out their last incarnation at Santa Elena
      – (GBR) Great Bear Resources – biggest gold discovery in Red Lake and of the last 2 years
      – (PGM) Pure Gold Mining – Great Bear’s neighbors. PGM is much further along in development and working to become a producer in the next year, so sometimes a larger company will nab them during that transition
      – (SBB) Sabina Gold & Silver – One of the best Gold/Silver development projects in Canada not grabbed by a major yet in Nunavut, Canada. It’s feasibility study shows a current 11 year mine life producing 200,000 ounces of gold equivalent per year.
      – (OKU.AX) Oklo Resources may get acquired by (RSG.AX) Resoulte mining that has a stake in them, and just sold off their large Ravenswood gold mine in Australia to put 100% focus on Africa
      – (NEE) Northern Vertex – Single asset Gold producer, with good economics, that would make a great bolt-on project for a larger miner
      – (ROXG) Roxgold Inc – West African Gold producer, 1 active mine with great costs and economics, and a 2nd development project moving towards production in the next 1-2 years. Endeavour Mining or Semafo or B2Gold could be suitors.
      – (ORE) Orezone Gold – Large development project in West Africa that is likely to get taken out
      – (BTR) Bonterra’s Urban/Barry & Gladiator camps are the next most likely target for Kirkland Lake (over next to Osisko Mining at Windfall Lake), once KL is done digesting their takeover of Detour Gold
      – (WM) Wallbridge & (BAR) Balmoral are also both takeover targets with great high grade discoveries right next to Detour Gold
      – (HRT) Harte Gold is a new producer that had complications in 2019 after going into production, but have largely worked them out now and are ratcheting up production, so I could a Mid-tier taking them over to add their mine to their production profile
      – (WKM) West Kirkland Mining – is a gold developer moving into production in Nevada right next to Scorpio Gold (SGN) and Corvus Gold (KOR) on the Walker Trend. Good economics and a good bolt on 2 mines for a Producer that wants to expand in Nevada. KOR just mentioned would be another takeover target.
      – (KTN) Kootenay Silver may have one of their projects acquired in a cash deal with their larger JV Partners. Same thing with (REX) Orex Minerals on their 3 Silver Projects where either Fresnillo or Pan American Silver may acquire a project or maybe the whole company.
      – (NUAG) New Pacific Metals could be acquired by their seed company (SVM) Silvercorp with a large 29% stake in them. Silvercorp got it’s butt kicked on Friday and lost 1/4 of its value, which was odd considering that they had a great quarter, made Net Income, increased production, and increased every metric in a good way, except they had a slight increase in costs, due to a currency exchange situation, and only grew by $.04 per share instead of $.06 per share. Regardless they have $151 million in cash and could easily acquire NUAG with a mix of cash & paper.
      – (MMG) Metallic Minerals who are Alexco’s neighbors at Keno Hill could get nabbed by another Silver company while AXU is working to move into production, where a separate mill would need to be build on the MMG side as well. The other option is AXU grabbing them once they are up and in production.
      – (LIO) LionOne Metals – Could get grabbed by one of the big boys as they now own their land position in the entire caldera at Fiji, and may have one of the largest unexplored Alkaline Gold deposits not held by a Major. The other 6 large Alkaline systems are all controlled by Majors.
      – (DSV) Discovery Metals has a massive Diablilos Silver deposit in Mexico that they acquired from Levon last year on the cheap, but are doing more great exploration work on, and if they keep growing it, they’ll be a huge target for a takeover.
      – (FPC) Falco Resources – will likely get acquired by (OR) Osisko Gold Royalties, similar to how OR scooped up their other incubator Barkerville Gold last year, since the market isn’t properly valuing either of them. OR just readjusted the streaming deal with them last week, so then again, maybe another larger company is going to make a move, but the streaming deal is what was holding them back.
      (SOLG) SolGold will likely get acquired as a massive Copper/Gold deposits in Ecuador
      (TK) Tinka Resources, (VTT) Vendetta Mining, (FWZ) Fireweed Zinc, (FOM) Foran Resources, and (ZNX) Zincx Resources are all potential Zinc takeover targets.
      (PGE) Group Ten Metals, (GENM) Generation Mining or (NAM) New Age Metals are potential Platinum/Palladium takeover targets.
      (TUO) Teuton Resource & (TUD) Tudor Gold are attractive takeover targets in the Golden triangle sandwiched all around Pretium and Seabridge.
      (DV) DollyVarden – Could put a target on their backs in the Golden Triangle for a Silver development project if they can expand the resources a bit more this year and work on updating their economic studies going into late 2020, early 2021.

      • On February 8, 2020 at 2:39 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Impressive work, Ex. Thanks.

        • On February 8, 2020 at 4:17 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Much appreciated. It would be nice to see some more M&A in the sector, as it frees up capital from investors that use the liquidity event of the takeover to exit positions, and simultaneously gets more speculative money coming into sector to bet on which Jr mining kernel will pop next from an acquisition. Ever Upward!

          • On February 8, 2020 at 5:08 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I’ll throw out a few more Takeover Target ideas:

            – (SWA) Savary Gold could be taken over by Teranga in Burkina Faso, as their assets are right next to TGZ’s Golden Hill project which is slated to be their 3rd and next mine.

            – (HUM.L) (HUMRF) Hummingbird Resources has a producing Yanfolila Gold Mine in Mali & the large Dugbe gold development project Liberia, but they discuss growing through acquisition, so they may scoop up one of the dozen or so smaller explorers in West Africa, or a larger company could take over Hummingbird. They’ll either eat or be eaten, and are in a similar situation to both Asanko and Roxgold in those regards.

            – There are also a number of the more widely followed Developers that will eventually get acquired as metals price rise just due to their optionality factor like Midas, Marathon, International Tower Hill, Probe Metals, Triumph, Gold Standard Ventures, Orca Gold, Bluestone Resources, Liberty Gold, Lumina Gold, etc….

            – It would also not be surprising at all to see a few of the larger Royalty companies (Franco Nevada, Royal Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals, Sandstorm, Osisko Gold Royalities, Altius)go on the hunt and poach some more of the smaller royalty companies like (Maverix, Metalla, EMX, Ely Gold, Sailfish, Abitibi Royalites, Golden Valley Mines, AngloPacific).

          • On February 8, 2020 at 5:16 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Correction. (SWA) is Sarama Resource that boarders (TGZ) Teranga Gold. I’m a shareholder and just botched that post above, because Sarama used to have JVs with (SCA) Savary and I’d mix them up all the time because SWA vs SCA and Sarama vs Savary. SCA was acquired by Semafo last year, so that leaves either SWA Sarama or maybe (CDV) Cardinal Resources next in West Africa.

          • On February 9, 2020 at 6:04 am,
            Wolfster says:

            For anyone interested in renewable energy here’s a nice article…..and it should be noted that bill gates is having a super yacht built that will be powered by hydrogen


      • On February 9, 2020 at 1:08 pm,
        Fritz Bender says:

        I saved it. Thanks again!

  6. On February 8, 2020 at 1:10 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Luke Gromen @LukeGromen 10:31 AM · Feb 7, 2020 on Twitter:

    “The gold/oil ratio is a gauge of the health of the Petrodollar system. The Petrodollar system requires expensive oil (to generate USD surpluses) & cheap gold (to eliminate competition for USTs), so a low gold/oil ratio = healthy Petro$, & a high gold/oil ratio = stressed Petro$.”


  7. On February 8, 2020 at 4:11 pm,
    Marlborough says:

    Does anyone here have any thoughts on how much lower AXU may still go? Also, where silver could bottom? Cheers

    • On February 8, 2020 at 5:03 pm,
      Matthew says:

      There’s a case to be made for 1.18 but I think the 1.40 area is probably the worst case for AXU.

    • On February 8, 2020 at 5:05 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Some approximate supports for silver on Monday are 17.57, 17.35, and 17.20…

      • On February 8, 2020 at 5:07 pm,
        Marlborough says:

        Thank you, Matthew.

        • On February 8, 2020 at 5:57 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          Marlborough, I was going to post earlier and the low for AXU in m view is exactly what Matthew posted. I’m looking at the possibility of 1.40 as well.

          • On February 8, 2020 at 6:29 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Looks like I need to find some spare change in the couch cushions to add some more AXU around 1.40 and then again around 1.14 if it gets down that low.

            I’d expect it to trend higher though towards the 2nd half of the year as they move towards production. Also, a few more interesting drill holes at their new “Bermingham Deep” and “Inca” deposits could give it a sudden rise if they hit high-grade paydirt, like they did last year.

          • On February 8, 2020 at 6:46 pm,
            Marlborough says:

            Thanks Doc.

  8. On February 8, 2020 at 4:54 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Ex, want to thank you for your synopsis. I often wonder what happened to Birdman. Also, thanks for your invaluable contributions on the PM stocks. It’s much appreciated by myself and others.

    • On February 8, 2020 at 5:20 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks Doc. I appreciate all of your insights and TA targets and thoughts as well.

      As for Birdman, I believe after he was banned for bad behavior, he likely spent more time with his pet turtle. 🙂

      • On February 8, 2020 at 8:09 pm,
        Glenfidish says:

        Ex,Matt, doc, Tracy or anyone,

        Can someone clarify how many bills or bill do we have in here? If there are two which is the one who kept saying a year or two ago that gold was headed down and Dow up? Is it the same one singing gold going up now most recently?

        • On February 8, 2020 at 8:25 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          We have 3 bills – (Bill in Tokyo, kingstonbill, and Bill). It was Bill that went from bearish to bullish.

  9. On February 9, 2020 at 6:07 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Sorry for the repost but first time this ended up in a subsection of comments where it didn’t belong….
    For anyone interested in renewable energy here’s a nice article…..and it should be noted that bill gates is having a super yacht built that will be powered by hydrogen

  10. On February 9, 2020 at 6:24 am,
    Wolfster says:
    • On February 9, 2020 at 7:34 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Well the last Rare Earth bull from 2009 – 2011/2012 was pretty epic, and with all the China tensions and increasing tech heavy globe and the expansion of renewable energy, more advanced defense sector, and need for lighter components on the ground, the sea, and the sky, I could see the move higher in Rare Earths over the next few years being a bit more sustainable this time.

  11. On February 9, 2020 at 7:26 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Fred Davidson, CEO of IMPACT Silver Corp. (IPT) (ISVLF)

    Metals Investor Forum on Jan 17-18, 2020 #CorporatePresentation #VIDEO


    • On February 9, 2020 at 7:29 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Brien Lundin talks to Fred Davidson, CEO of $IPT $ISVLF IMPACT Silver Corp.
      Jan 17-18, 2020 – #MIF Metals Investor Forum #VIDEO

      “Fred Davidson CEO of IMPACT Silver Corp. and Brien Lundin of Gold Newsletter discuss the company’s significant $silver producing mines in south-central #Mexico – the Royal Mines of Zacualpan Silver District and the Capire-Mamatla Silver District.”


      • On February 9, 2020 at 7:32 am,
        Excelsior says:

        (IPT) (ISVLF) Impact Silver – When the beat-boom-boom-pat-pat like that

        Crux Investor – Feb 5, 2020 #VIDEO interview

        “Davidson has been with Impact Silver for 13yrs and mined 9.5Moz. They are a primary Silver producer, at 95% of production skewed to Silver. Many SIlver operators have come and gone but Impact Silver remains as a small but profitable producer.”

        “We ask about growth, the options seem to be: 1. Keep producing, 2. Farm-out of one of their licenced areas, 3. M&A. Listen which he thinks is most likely. We want to know what is going to move the dial for shareholders.”

        “They have $4M of cash, no debt, $55M of operating profits, and a market cap of only $46M. They own 2 mills. Only one is operating. And a concentrate sales agreement with Samsung. What does all this mean.”


        • On February 9, 2020 at 9:51 am,
          Excelsior says:

          As far as Silver stocks go, I’m incredibly bullish on IPT for later in 2020 and into 2021 technically & fundamentally. 95% Silver production exposure at this point so about the best pure leverage to a rising Silver price on the market.

          Their exploration upside is what still really blows my mind and I’ve been invested since early 2016. I’m as keenly interested to see what news they put on from the drill bit on their properties the next 2 years as I am on their production results.

          There are a number of interesting Silver stocks I hold positions in, but Impact Silver is growing into one of my largest positions. I’m pretty jazzed on SCZ Santacruz Silver for many of the same reasons – Leverage to rising Silver prices, increasing margins, and exploration upside.

          When Silver gets up in the mid $20’s or higher in the next 2 years, the returns on these smaller Silver Jrs is going to blow away most expectations.

    • On February 9, 2020 at 9:32 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (EXN) (EXLLF) Excellon Announces 2019 Production Results
      by @newswire on 28 Jan 2020

      > 2019 Production (compared to 2018)

      – Silver equivalent (“AgEq”) production increased 4% to 2.0 million oz
      (2018 – 1.9 million AgEq oz)
      – Silver production increased 15% to 1.0 million oz (2018 – 917,714 oz)
      – Lead production increased 13% to 6.1 million lb (2018 – 5.4 million lb)
      – Zinc production increased 7% to 8.4 million lb (2018 – 7.9 million lb)

      “We mined a record 74,876 tonnes from Platosa in 2019, the most in our 15-year operating history,” stated Brendan Cahill, President and CEO. “At Miguel Auza, we processed record tonnage of 89,478 tonnes for the year and 26,226 tonnes for Q4 from Platosa and Hecla’s San Sebastian Mine, demonstrating continued scalability in the milling operation. During the fourth quarter, flow sheet upgrades resulted in improved silver recoveries of over 91.7%. We expect zinc recoveries to further improve with ongoing upgrades.”


  12. On February 9, 2020 at 9:17 am,
    SilverDollar says:

    Thanks for this post and the post earlier of Luke Gromen. Good thoughts and info.

    • On February 9, 2020 at 9:24 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi SilverDollar, much appreciated sir. Yeah that was a very interesting point from Luke on the gold/oil ratio being a good gauge of the health of the Petrodollar system.

      With Gold moving higher and Oil moving lower it does stress the Petrodollar and this is the grease of the western countries economies, energy markets, and currency relevance. There will be a change to this system eventually and some of the early cracks with the Petrodollar system have been evident for some time now.

      • On February 9, 2020 at 7:27 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Commodity Weekly: Offering a better insight than stocks

        Ole Hansen – Head of Commodity Strategy Saxo Bank – 2020-02-07

        “Commodity markets continue to bear the brunt of the coronavirus outbreak in China. The concern remains that the wider markets have yet to reflect the full impact of the disruption. With China being the worlds most dominant consumer of raw materials, the impact continues to be felt strongly across key commodities and the world is facing the biggest demand shock since the 2009 global financial crisis.”


        • On February 9, 2020 at 7:30 pm,
          Excelsior says:


          Technical Traders – Chris Vermeulen – February 7, 2020

          “Earnings volatility has certainly been big. Tesla pushed the markets much higher early this week and the US stock markets have continued the upward momentum after the State Of The Union address and the acquittal of President Trump on Wednesday. Still, we continue to believe this rally may be a “fake-out” rally with respect to the fallout from the Wuhan virus. Certainly, foreign investors are continuing to pour capital into the US stock market as the strength of the US Dollar and the strong US economy is drawing investment from all areas of the globe.”

          “We believe the scope of this parabolic rally in the US stock market should actually concern skilled traders. Markets just don’t go straight up for very long. The last time this happened was in the 1970s and 1980s. Very minor volatility during that time prompted a big move higher in the US stock market that set up the eventual DOT COM collapse.”

          “Oil, Shipping, Transportation, Consumer, Manufacturing, and Retail will all take a hit because of the Wuhan virus. We’ve, personally, received notices from certain suppliers that factory closures in China will greatly delay the fulfillment of orders. Our opinion is that nations may have to close all or a majority of their cities, ports, and activities in Asia for at least 90+ days in order to allow this virus event to peak and subside. We don’t see any other way to contain this other than to shut down entire cities and nations.”


  13. On February 9, 2020 at 10:54 am,
    Wolfster says:

    For the TA experts i have a question regarding resistance levels…how and what are the best ways to figure out resistance points for stocks that are hitting all time highs???

    • On February 9, 2020 at 12:09 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’m no TA expert, and when a stock is on a breakout move higher, it is hard to peg when the bubble in valuation will pop, and indicators can stay overbought for longer than expected. Here are a few ideas you can look for on charts to see where resistance points are likely to be.

      1) Use trend-lines from peak to peak or trough to trough, during short, medium, or longer time frames or between waves of action. Also consider using Weekly or Monthly charts to spot longer term trends and trend-lines. There can be more noise on the daily charts, but for short to medium term swing trades, the daily charts are essential to follow for the pips, pops, and drops.

      2) Look for key overhead resistance from different duration Moving Averages to see where selling may come in. I like using the short duration Fibonacci EMAs (21/34/55) for swing trading, but the 144 and 233 for potential support or resistance depending the direction.

      3) Look for candlestick patterns that often notate a turn in direction like an Evening Star pattern, an engulfing bearish candle, a hammer candle at a parabolic peak, or a Doji indecision moment at a parabolic peak where there is a tug-o-war in buying and selling. Those often mark a turn in a turn in direction.

      4) RSI, Slow Stochatics, CCI Commodity Channel Index and TSI True strength index extreme overbought conditions often confirm a suspected area of resistance.

      5) prior Peaks and troughs often are congestion zones and on daily charts can become short term resistance points, and on weekly/monthly charts can be medium term resistance points.

      Eventually these will get taken out on a 2nd or 3rd attempt though, where as, trend-lines or moving averages or bollinger bands can contain prices on multiple attempts to break out.

      6) I also review the ADX indicator for sudden changes from bullish (green line elevated / red heading lower) to bearish (green line heading down / red line heading up) paired with an increase in momentum from the black line heading higher showing more conviction.

      7) Fibonacci Extensions – you can project a Fibonacci extension of 38.2% or 61.8% to the move from the last medium term move from trough to peak to where a stock could extend to after already making a sizable move, correcting back and then making a move to a blow off top to a higher level.

      8) There are some that use Fibonacci projections off a specific 5 wave-count uptrend or a 3 wave down trend to calculate certain price levels, but it gets a bit subjects to see which wave counts withing wave counts start and end.

      9) I look for the MACD or TRIX indicators to confirm the turn as more lagging indicators.

      10) Significant turns are also often associated with higher volume spikes, paired up with the other trend-lines, moving average tags, candlestick patterns, and slow stochastic crosses.

      I’m sure other investors may use different methods, but those are a few ideas that have serve me well over the years.

      • On February 9, 2020 at 4:05 pm,
        Wolfster says:

        Thanks Ex….Fibonacci was one I’ve looked at. I just struggle with when to take profits on these types of plays. The renewable plays I’m aware of are all trading at new all time highs and with it being a new sector I find myself unsure how to play it.

  14. On February 9, 2020 at 11:35 am,
    Bill says:

    What I think….”Keeping a close eye on gold and silver, as a material reversal may have already begun. Gold ETF’s are enjoying record inflows of cash, while central banks have been on a record buying spree. Yet despite global political shocks and corona virus fears, gold looks tired while there’s a 5-month non-confirmation in precious metals, as gold made a new high at the start of the year while silver has yet to exceed its high from early September of last year.”

    • On February 9, 2020 at 4:56 pm,
      Matthew says:

      On the other hand, there is a bullish non-confirmation between big, safe gold stocks and small, risky silver stocks. SILJ exceeded its September high by almost 10% in December while GDX fell 3% short of even matching its own September high.
      If Friday’s action wasn’t a fake-out to rattle weak hands, the downside for SILJ versus SLV/silver is probably 4-6%.

  15. On February 9, 2020 at 12:42 pm,
    markedtofuture says:


    @discoveries Discovery Alert #DEG.ax #2: This new gold discovery in the Australian Pilbara is a potential World Class One imho. We have owned 1% of DEG shares since 2017 and have been doing some more serious research in the last few days. Our back-on-the-envelop-calculations shows DEG could proof up 2-3oz @2-3 grams, in this district scale setting, pretty soon. The size of this system could be a positive surprise to many. In recent years, some gold has already been found, in several holes over more than 5 km’s in the same area. Now they have drilled the high grade zones (many holes showing some 5-25gr mineralization) rights in the middle of this system. This new high grade discovery is open pittable, starting under a just 30m cover, almost vertical (probably 100’s of meters al least) and a has a probable strike of at least 700 meters (drilling between the discovery holes still needs to confirm this), but possibly over more than 1 km. With a mc of under A$150 still room for growth. In a blue sly scenario this could even grow towards a 5mln+ deposit as well. When this scenario plays out, DEG will be much more than the current share price. In our Top3 of 2020 discoveries ..


  16. On February 9, 2020 at 7:02 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The Ultimate Gold Forecast for 2020

    Cambridge House International – Feb 6th

    “Daniela Cambone (Kitco News), Frank Holmes (US Global), Rick Rule (Sprott US), Grant Williams (Vulpes Investment Management) and Peter Schiff (Euro Pacific) sit down at the VRIC 2020 to discuss their outlook on gold and gold stocks.”


  17. On February 10, 2020 at 7:31 am,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Good to see my DGMLF finally making a move. Novo should’ve bought them last week.

  18. On February 10, 2020 at 8:25 am,
    Bill says:

    Ya I see that…weird setup. Golds up 15-20 buks the last couple sessions CDN and the big caps yawned or fell…

  19. On February 10, 2020 at 8:25 am,
    Bill says:

    Waz for Matthew thx

  20. On February 10, 2020 at 8:28 am,
    b says:


    February 10, 2020

    Mexican mineworkers march against Americas Gold and Silver Corp.

    The Canadian miner rejects the protest action and deems illegal a blockade at its San Rafael mine in Sinaloa.

    Maybe this is the reason Silvercorp tanked.

    • On February 10, 2020 at 8:50 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Why would an illegal strike in Mexico Americas Gold & Silver have anything to do with Silvercorp operating in China? SVM is up 7.5% this morning and that action on Friday looked more like Chinese investors cashing out a profitable position to cover losses on other stocks, as there was huge volume out of nowhere after a pretty positive news release – so it didn’t make much sense.

      I had responded back about SVM on our thread on Friday.

      On February 7, 2020 at 3:04 pm,
      Excelsior says:
      It’s up 7.85% in the aftermarket trading, so maybe value investors are realizing this sell-down was way overdone. It may be that Chinese buyers taking profits to cover their other positions that are crashing in their general stock markets.

      I guess it’s possible that the Coronavirus concerns could have played a part since they are operating in China, but they have the best margins of any Silver producer on the planet.

      This doesn’t concern me at all longer term as they are doing great on their production and operations, have a large stake in NUAG, and this looks more like a high-volume move hitting sell stops all the way down.

      I would expect it to take a few weeks to make a recovery, but next week I’ll be buying any more weakness (and was buying some in the afterhours markets as well), as overall the news was pretty solid other than their costs came up a little.

      There aren’t many Silver miners with Net Income these days, and with an AISC of $7.21 per ounce. Unlike most companies, they don’t need higher Silver prices as Silver is at $17.68, so that is over a $10 per ounce margin.”

    • On February 10, 2020 at 8:57 am,
      Wolfster says:

      The bigger issue is how it will effect Americas and othe silver miners in Mexico especially this region

      • On February 10, 2020 at 10:11 am,
        Excelsior says:

        “Americas Gold and Silver Corporation (USA) (USAS) , a growing North American precious metals producer, announced that a group of individuals has illegally blockaded access to facilities at the Cosalá Operations. The faction includes a small minority of the Company’s unionized workers. The Company has already filed the legal motions with the Government of Mexico at the state and federal levels but remains receptive to having good-faith discussions with the proper representatives of the certified union.”

        “As a result of the illegal blockade at the site, the Company has temporarily halted mining and processing operations. Americas firmly believes that worker and community interests are best served by lifting the protest and not through an illegal and unproductive blockade that is damaging to all stakeholders. The Company hopes to resolve this dispute in a timely fashion.”


  21. On February 10, 2020 at 9:49 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On February 10, 2020 at 10:09 am,
      Marlborough says:

      Doing well so far today. Still think it’ll go lower?

      • On February 10, 2020 at 10:42 am,
        Matthew says:

        I doubt it. The downtrend that began two months ago for the miners in general is already stretched and the bears were unable to capitalize on an ugly bearish engulfing day. In addition, support has come at technically significant spots throughout the sector, not just for AXU.
        Watch for GDX to get back above the following short term support-turned-resistance…

    • On February 10, 2020 at 10:18 am,
      Excelsior says:

      AXU does look like it is near support on that fork and the moving averages are converging near current levels in about a week or 2, and the Full Stochastics and MACD and some of the other chart indicators look ready to turn up soon.

      • On February 10, 2020 at 11:03 am,
        Marlborough says:

        Thanks Matthew and Ex!

  22. On February 10, 2020 at 10:45 am,
    Matthew says:

    AG is reacquiring a broken fork support. Let’s see how it finishes the session…

    • On February 10, 2020 at 10:49 am,
      Matthew says:

      CDE is trying to do the same and note that it bullishly held above its 8-month uptrend support on Friday:

      • On February 10, 2020 at 2:43 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yep, it looks like CDE is trying to consolidate and build a base for the next breakout.

    • On February 10, 2020 at 10:51 am,
      Matthew says:

      My Brixton position has more than doubled over the last couple of months going from hundreds of thousands of shares to hundreds of thousand of shares. 😉

      • On February 10, 2020 at 2:54 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I did a double-take on that post. Ha!

        At first I though you meant Brixton had doubled in share-price, and went to go check my trading account excited, but then realized you meant you doubled your position size.

        That’s a strong endorsement Matthew, and I’ve considered adding a bit more to my BBB position in anticipation of their drilling at Hog Heaven and Thorn this exploration season, but have been tied up with other stocks recently. I was expecting more of a Q1 Run in the miners that outperformed the rise in the PMs, but since the metals jumped on geopolitical concerns in Jan & Feb, the miners haven’t followed suit. My plan was to scalp some partial profits in some positions to reallocate to more exploration news based stories, but the big rally in the stocks really didn’t come except for select 1-off stories from exploration wins or improving development project metrics/ or quarter over quarter improvements in producers.

      • On February 10, 2020 at 2:57 pm,
        Bill says:

        Shit Mat I better get buying more!!