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Comparing the markets currently to 1999

Cory
February 14, 2020

Chris Temple joins me on this Friday with a look back in history to compare the current state of the US markets to past times. He outlines how 1999 was very similar and what a profitable portfolio strategy was.

Click here to visit Chris’s site and follow along with his individual company recommendations.

Discussion
35 Comments
    cfs
    Feb 14, 2020 14:09 AM

    Can you imagine the record deficits that would occur if Bernie were elected ?
    An extra $ 4Trillion is the low estimate !

    Meanwhile there almost has to be a crash towards the end of the year.
    The supply chain is going to be disrupted:
    https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-dependence-pharmaceutical-products-china

    The common cold is a corona virus.
    The influenza virus is a corona virus.
    There is NO TRUE Vaccine that will be found for Covid-19.
    It mutates too quickly.
    The person that created this bioweapon and the morons in government that approved the creation should be put in a swimming pool of Piranha for what they have released on humanity.
    WHO is now projecting up to 50% of the world population will be exposed in the next few years.
    The cat is out of the bag and will NEVER be contained again.

      Feb 14, 2020 14:24 PM

      Michael Savage always said liberalism is a mental disorder.

    Feb 14, 2020 14:17 AM

    I couldn’t agree more with Chris with regards to both Greenspan and 1999. My work shows that at present, the SPX looks to be in a similar position today as November /99 from a purely technical standpoint. If so, this tape has roughly 10 more months of upside before succumbing and entering a 2yr downdraft that may be significant from a percentage measure.

    BDC
    Feb 14, 2020 14:13 PM

    It was Glass-Steagall !!

      Feb 14, 2020 14:30 PM

      Repealing Glass-Steagall had long been an objective of Greenspan’s – and he got it done. All the better to turn the banking system into a greater casino.

        BDC
        Feb 14, 2020 14:38 PM

        Exactly.

      Feb 14, 2020 14:45 PM

      Glass-Steagall would have done nothing to prevent the problems that led to 2008.

        BDC
        Feb 15, 2020 15:33 AM

        The 1999 elimination of Glass-Steagall greatly magnified its effects.

          Feb 15, 2020 15:55 AM

          That is highly debatable. For example, AIG would have been unaffected by Glass-Steagall.
          The elephant in the room is the government. IT is the sole reason for the crisis. The free market was not at all to blame and the free market also would not have provided bailouts to the bad guys in the aftermath. The government created massive moral hazard, as it always does. Free markets force accountability.

            BDC
            Feb 16, 2020 16:57 AM

            Note also that the massive infusion of debt capital – essentially OPM – exacerbated the earlier speculative internet bubble not long after Glass-Steagall was gone. Debt markets dwarf the others, and the surety of these previously protected securities (whatever there can be) was greatly diminished.

            Feb 16, 2020 16:14 PM

            I’d bet that the timing of the repeal was to allow certain banks to bet against the stock market rather than to buy it.

            Glass-Steagall was enacted well after the crash of ’29 and was repealed just before the all-time high (that remains the real all time high) so it never accomplished anything other than creating a moral hazard. It was just another bit of nanny-state sorcery to appease the masses. Nothing is more dangerous to your financial health than to trust that the government is there to protect you.

            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&st=1993-01-01&en=2000-11-11&id=p42875623857&a=721566641

            BDC
            Feb 17, 2020 17:40 AM

            Money cannot be stolen (via loose credit: schemed away through pump & dump, shorting, etc.) if it is not available. The elimination of Glass-Steagall enabled shysters to effectively steal OPM previously out of their reach.

            Feb 17, 2020 17:32 PM

            Oh yes it can. G-S never affected the Fed’s ability to inflate, only commercial banks’ ability to speculate.
            If what you’re saying were true, gold would still be $35 like it was when G-S was enacted in 1933.
            Inflation is theft. The gov’s deficit spending is extreme inflation.

    CFS
    Feb 14, 2020 14:15 PM

    gLASS-STEAGALL won’t help.
    Did you listen to Hemke above ?

    BDC
    Feb 14, 2020 14:37 PM

    Completely opening the American credit spigott to the Crime Syndicate Cult in 1999, through the elimination of Glass-Staegall, ensured that the ‘casino’, as Marty Fleckenstein put it, would enable creation of a near unending Ponzi economy!!!

    Feb 14, 2020 14:11 PM

    This is well worth a few minutes of someone you know……
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=6&v=W5wfIaR48zg&feature=emb_logo

      Feb 14, 2020 14:16 PM

      Ditto……..great report……worth the time…..appreciate……..thanks…….

    cfs
    Feb 14, 2020 14:00 PM

    Everything is relative.
    What on earth is the currency that might replace the dollar.

    The Renmimbi ? You got to be joking. Do anyone believe China tells the truth. ?
    The Euro ? The EU will break up before the euro becomes a reserve currency.
    A cryptocurrency ? Any domination there and it will be attacked/made illegal.

    For the dollar to fall, it has to be replaced by something better.

      BDC
      Feb 14, 2020 14:19 PM

      The new currency? A ‘born-again’ Dollar!
      Why would the Cult give up their control?

      Feb 14, 2020 14:19 PM

      Listen to the tape above…….submitted by 4 oz……for a clue…….

      Feb 14, 2020 14:59 PM

      As the late John McLaughlin would have said, cfs, “You’ve lurched into the truth…correct!” For as far ahead as one can look, there is no meaningful threat to the US $ (unless somehow in an especially crackpot way The Orange Wonder pulls off an assisted suicide of it.) The ECB will end up turning the euro into toilet paper/confetti before it’s done…and I hope you are correct that the euro experiment will implode anyway.

      In relative terms, the dollar has no viable competitor.

      Make no mistake–I wish the dollar’s reign would end; and not because of how it would affect gold or markets or anything else (be careful what you wish for, folks…if the $ really did lose its global reserve status, Americans are f****d!!) I wouldn’t mind seeing it, though, in the sense that the dollar’s “death” would likewise finally end the overreach of the American empire/Deep State around the world…and save future losses of money, lives, etc.

      Feb 22, 2020 22:04 AM

      Not merely better, but capable of handling all of the betting action associated with a quadrillion dollar derivatives market. One other reason for the dollar’s permanent entrenchment as the currency of choice is that the whole world prefers to pay for real goods, particularly oil, with a currency that is in infinite supply.

    CFS
    Feb 14, 2020 14:05 PM
    Feb 14, 2020 14:08 PM

    Markets continue to rise on more news that pandemic is even more widespread. Dystopic.

    cfs
    Feb 14, 2020 14:58 PM

    I believe all but the Chinese are underestimating Covid-19.

    The world is in for a major recession.

    cfs
    Feb 14, 2020 14:06 PM

    70 Airlines have cancelled all flights to/from China.

    Ships leaving China will decrease next.

    The Chinese know how bad Covid-19 is, but are lying about it.

    ACE-2 is the receptor for Covid-19. Liable to have more effect on smokers
    (this explains early thought of racial/gender/age differentiation.)

    cfs
    Feb 14, 2020 14:31 PM

    ACE2 receptor localization
    This is the most relevant paper I found if you want to see body location effected:
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/path.1570

    Feb 14, 2020 14:37 PM

    Orange wonder has increased the swamp population and debt. Just another person who made promises they never keep.

      Feb 14, 2020 14:41 PM

      Sad but pretty much true, Fritz…like The Joker (Jack Nicholson) said, paraphrasing, “This country needs an enema!”

    Feb 14, 2020 14:49 PM

    Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla, the alarm bells are ringing. Does anyone here remember Nortel Networks the darling of The TSX, it crashed in 2001. It went from a high of $129 per share to 63 cents and it was a splendid train wreck. No one could believe that it was possible so they kept buying as the elevator was going down. Can’t happen again you say, just you wait! LOL! DT

    Feb 14, 2020 14:57 PM

    BOYS!

    Very FASCINATION interview with Chris Cole on allocation, volatility, etc. BUT put on your THINKING CAPS because there it is a heavy duty discussion.

    https://www.macrovoices.com/785-macrovoices-206-chris-cole-optimizing-portfolio-construction-for-changing-times