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GDX and Silver Still Have Some Work To Do For A Closing Monthly Breakout

Cory
February 26, 2020

Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me today to look at the monthly charts for gold, GDX and silver. Gold is setting up to have a very strong monthly close this month however silver and gold stocks still need to move higher to truly breakout for the end of the month. All are in bullish formations but there is some catch up still needed. We also discuss the Fed future actions and how that will help to drive the gold stocks and silver.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site and keep up to date on the metals charts.

Discussion
79 Comments
    Feb 26, 2020 26:39 AM

    Larry, i hope you will go to stopfattyliver.com/1-slf/ and listen to the interview with Burton Berkson, MD It confirms all you said about our medical system. It will blow Al’s mind when he takes the red pill from Dr. Berkson and learns the truth. Listen before 9pm CST tonight when it comes down. Everyone should hear this.

      Feb 26, 2020 26:53 AM

      I will search that site out B…..I have a bit in depth health site favorites…No problem….I trade/study/help others…That is my job in retirement…

        Feb 26, 2020 26:05 PM

        Welcome to the KER Crowd………..lol

        Feb 26, 2020 26:19 PM

        Larry, the last 3 letters of that site might be “sfl” instead of “slf.”
        If that doesn’t work try info@stopfattyliver.com
        I sure hope you can hear Dr. Berkson before 9pm

        Feb 26, 2020 26:18 PM

        Larry, thank you for the link.

    Feb 26, 2020 26:49 AM

    Doc, what do you think of NGD now? Maybe there is hope after all.
    Today is the birthday of Fats Domino and Johnny Cash, 2 great southerners.

      Feb 26, 2020 26:43 PM

      BB; what is amazing about NGD right now is the monthly chart. The BBs are as narrow as I’ve ever seen on a monthly chart. Something has to give and if you look at some of recent bullish volume , the possibility is good that we see a break to the upside. In fact, as March begins, I’ll probably buy heavily into the stock since if it takes out major support on the downside, I can get out with minimal loss. Interestingly, 49% of the stock is owned by institutions. New Gold Inc. surged after forming an unusual partnership with Ontario Teachersโ€™ Pension Plan that gives the miner $300 million in exchange for selling a portion of the free cash flow from its flagship operation. This transaction makes New Gold a more attractive takeover target to deep-pocketed, mid-cap gold producers who are looking to acquire production in safe jurisdictions, However, the deal, with high costs to New Gold, has lowered the companyโ€™s net asset value. BB, this deal increased NGD’s flexibility. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a breakout to the upside.

        Feb 26, 2020 26:23 PM

        Doc, I sure hope NGD’s nightmare is behind it. I think Renaud Adams can fix it if anyone can.

    Feb 26, 2020 26:04 PM

    Three days in a row………DOWN DOW…………hang on tight…….

    Feb 26, 2020 26:19 PM

    http://gata.org/node/19871………..Conspiracy Fact…… ๐Ÿ™‚

    “I have no idea whether this explanation is true — in fact I doubt it seriously — but I do think the market action is strange. All the signs are pointing to higher and higher gold prices, except maybe speculator positioning, which is already at a record high.

    “But as that GATA piece points out, no one takes profits by dumping $3 billion on the market all at once. You would sell slowly and gradually, trying not to impact the market price. So the explanation of profit-taking on these record-high longs doesn’t cut it either.”

    Feb 26, 2020 26:20 PM

    Gittler continues: “Those who like conspiracy stories can read on the infamous Zero Hedge website about how there was a sell order for over $3 billion in the gold futures market, which they attribute — with no proof — to the Bank for International Settlements”:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-suddenly-hammered-multi-billi

    “You can read more about the BIS and the gold market at the website of the similarly conspiratorial Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.”

    Feb 26, 2020 26:28 PM

    Will GDXJ hold its cup & handle formation?
    The support line around $42.5 so far looks like a line in the sand. If its breached then its no good.

      Feb 26, 2020 26:06 PM

      Gee, if gold is the end game, why doesn’t the Fed start accumulating? Then again, as wheels of justice turn, they could find JP Morgan guilty & confiscate stored PM’s.

        Feb 26, 2020 26:48 PM

        “Haven Of Last Resort” – Goldman Sees Gold At $1800 Due To Virus & Bernie Sanders Fears

        Wed, 02/26/2020

        “Mikhail Sprogis outlines three factors behind continued gains for gold (12m forecast $1800)…”

        1) Fear-Driven investment demand

        2) Large global savings glut

        3) The rise of Bernie Sanders

        “Gold has outperformed traditional haven currencies, such as the Yen and Swiss Franc, underscoring its status as the safest haven in a world where all currencies are susceptible to a virus-related shock.”

        https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/haven-last-resort-goldman-sees-gold-1800-due-virus-bernie-sanders-fears

          Feb 26, 2020 26:30 PM

          So, summing it al up, risks to global growth surrounding the virus together with a continued savings glut, depressed real rates, and increased focus on the US election should take the gold price higher by year-end with their new 3, 6 and 12 month forecasts are now $1,700/toz, $1,750/toz and $1,800/toz.

          In the event that the virus effect spreads to Q2, we could see gold top $1800/toz already on a 3 month basis.

          Goldman also increased their 3, 6 and 12m silver forecasts to $18.5/toz, $18.75/toz and $19/toz.
          THEY SURE DO NOT SEE MUCH HAPPENING FOR SILVER…………

            Feb 26, 2020 26:34 PM

            If, this holds true……….the ratio GSR….will be 98 to 1

            Feb 26, 2020 26:36 PM

            Make that 97.5….to l

            Feb 27, 2020 27:44 AM

            Silver needs to wake up and get on it’s bike and ride to bring that ratio down for sure. As to when that happens, it’s anyone’s guess, but I’d expect Silver to move higher later this year and into next relative to Gold, even while Gold may reach a bit higher.

            Feb 27, 2020 27:36 AM

            Bobby M………has a good article for you to read…..it is on the other blog……jmo
            Look under DICK’S post…….

            Feb 27, 2020 27:57 AM

            I’ll check it out. Thanks for the heads up OOTB.

        Feb 26, 2020 26:23 PM

        Like, back up the Amtrack, headed to Fort Knox, & should Bernie win SC, watch it disappear to pay for free health care, open borders & free university…

    Feb 26, 2020 26:12 PM

    A Humbling Month

    by @Goldfinger on 26 Feb 2020

    “The point of this blog post is not to discuss the individual companies mentioned, however, I will say I still own all 3 stocks and I have actually bought more shares in the last couple of weeks. I have no illusions about the nature of many of my junior resource equity holdings – this is a risky sector that regularly experiences extreme volatility; if you can’t handle experiencing regular 50% drawdowns in portfolio positions then you should not own junior mining stocks.”

    “These sorts of drawdowns are also another lovely reminder of the importance of position sizing. I have a rule that I will never put more than 10% of my total account equity into a single stock, and come to think of it 10% is even a bit too high! 5% is probably more appropriate, especially for stocks with sub-$50 million market caps.”

    “I’m a big boy and this isn’t my first portfolio drawdown, however, that doesn’t mean it feels any better. I find myself thinking about what I should have done differently and trying to draw some lessons from these humbling last few weeks. Part of the lesson is that this is simply the nature of the beast, highly volatile stocks will be volatile (both on the upside and the downside) and I just happened to catch a cluster of downside volatility. Another lesson is to constantly question my own theses and to trim positions when I start to become less confident as to why I own something. And the final lesson is to always be humble – the moment I start to notice myself feeling too sure of things it’s a signal that it’s time to be extra vigilant and remind myself of what can go wrong.”

    https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/a-humbling-month

    Feb 26, 2020 26:28 PM

    Rick Rule – “You have absolutely no excuse not to make a million dollars or more in this market”

    Read on for the transcript from Rick Rule’s speech at the 25th annual Cambridge House VRIC.

    https://ceo.ca/@newton/rickrule-vric-you-have-absolutely-no-excuse-not-to-make-a-million-dollars-or-more-in-this-market

      Feb 26, 2020 26:09 PM

      I now wonder if coronavirus has the potential to act as the black swan event that can turn markets and the global economy on its head? Ive often speculated that it would take a black swan event to dismantle the status quo of our current economic climate. If the coronavirus situation continues to spiral out of control then the potential will become probable. Of course theres much to play out before this were to eventuate. However I now believe the chances have moved from unlikely to possible.

        Feb 27, 2020 27:12 AM

        Yes, a black swan event, like the coronavirus, by it’s very nature upsets the apple cart; and can change the trajectory of the status quo economic climate.

        There is a growing concern in the back of my mind, that after years of claims of chaos from Y2K to 5/5/2000, to the dire warnings after the 2008/2009 financial crisis, to the 2012 Shift of the Ages, to the demise of the global financial system when negative interest rates came out, to people’s worries about various political leaders, etc… I always considered there was a potential risk, but now for the first time in this over-inflated stock market/real estate market/art market/everything market, there is a real risk of a topping/crashing from something like a pandemic virus that throws a monkey wrench into the global economy that may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Things could devolve much faster than most realize, so everyones ideas and principles may get chucked out the window as a new paradigm unfolds. Wild times!

          Feb 27, 2020 27:21 AM

          Agreed on the uneasy feeling of the over-inflated everything market. Its just not right and the more unbalanced it becomes at the top, the more severe the crash and burn scenario will likely become.

            Feb 27, 2020 27:27 AM

            Yes, the bigger it is the harder it falls. There has been a disengaged smugness from most folks, with severe recency bias, that things will just continue like they always have. That is usually precisely when life has a way of pulling the rug out from under one’s feet.

            The only constant is change.

      Feb 27, 2020 27:31 AM

      (OS) (OSSPF) OSPREY DRILLING DEMONSTRATES STRIKE LENGTH OF MORE THAN 500 METERS OF DISSEMINATED GOLD MINERALIZATION AT MITCHELL LAKE ZONE, INCLUDING 13.0 M OF 1.05 G/T GOLD

      https://www.ospreygold.com/news/2020/drilling-hits-disseminated-gold-at-mitchell-lake/

        Feb 27, 2020 27:42 AM

        The market really misunderstood this press release’s significance from Osprey Gold yesterday. Most were wowed by their really high grade prior press release, and jumped in for a high-grade drill play, but that is not how the deposits are in this area of Nova Scotia. Instead, most of these successful deposits (like Atlantic Gold’s deposit) have been low grade disseminated bulk deposits that are mined as open pit, so 500 meters of disseminated Gold was exactly what the team at Osprey was looking for.

        Good comments from Cooper Quinn, the President & Director of Osprey:
        ________________________________________________

        @cooperquinn_wy – “You got it – at Mitchell Lake the target is this style of mineralization. Sometimes there HG hits within it, but the host argillites carrying gold are what make Atlantic (well, St Barbara) a success. Look at the AISC at Moose River, and keep in mind they built that w/ <10year mine life. We're still exploring the structure out there and there's a ton of room. "

        "Long story short, this is a jurisdiction where smaller deposits are fine, and Mitchell Lake is a path for that for OS. Weve got a growing resource at Goldenville, there's historic ounces at Caribou, and working on the potential here at Mitchell Lake. You can aggregate small/med satellite deposits into a broader mine plan that uses existing infrastructure. And that short mine life at SBM is good for us."

        https://ceo.ca/os?59af6ef2b62f

    Feb 26, 2020 26:29 PM

    Where does repo fit into diverting funds from health care? Where does possible failure of fraudulent derivative risk fit into funding infrastructure? Why do we not audit the Fed or the Exchange Stabilization Fund and where do they get their funding and what fo they do with the funds they actually fabricate. What is the purpose of government and where are funds supposed to be spent. Why do market makers of all forms determine winners and losers rather than having free markets driven by willing buyers and sellers? Why does the Fed buy the markets? Why does the Fed bailout domestic and foreign corporations? On whose authority fo they do these things? Again.. why does my dying neighbor not have healthcare?

      Feb 27, 2020 27:17 AM

      Central Banks create more funny fiat monopoly money out of thin air to lend to their failing bankster friends, and in a truly free market they would NOT be bailing out domestic and foreign corporations to your point. As to the derivative risk, it is truly colossal at this point, and may be the engine of implosion in the markets when it finally becomes too distressed and institutions need to cover failing trades. Luckily right now everyone believes that everything is awesome.

      As for the repo markets, it is handled by moving assets into a token-based system with the banks and with the fed where tokens of value are exchanged back and forth on the books and off the books to feed liquidity, but it isn’t necessarily diverting funds that would go towards infrastructure or healthcare. Those funds come from the Congress’s budget, and they milk the sheeple taxpayers (that are still working) for those dollars. Government can assist in lining up massive infrastructure, but should farm it out to the private sector as the government is dreadfully bad at executing a plan efficiently or in a cost effective way. As for the health care industry, the US is the leaders in innovation in health care because of the ingenunity of the free market companies to solve problems, and that is why people flock here from all over the world for their procedures. The government should never have gotten involved with trying to administer, price, or manage the healthcare system as the free market will always do a better job, be more competitive, and stimulate great service over mandatory participation. It is a service & insurance, not a right they can or should guarantee through taxing the snot out of the contributors to society, and redistributing it to those that don’t contribute. Sure there should be a safety net for the bottom 10-15%, but not 50% of the country sucking at the government teet.

        Feb 27, 2020 27:53 AM

        How are the politicians going to get paid..off………the scum bags…..are screwing
        WE THE PEOPLE>>>>>>>>real simple and have been for a LONG TIME>…

          Feb 27, 2020 27:54 AM

          Old Bobby M…..is calling for a JUBILEE…….he must have read some of my old post… ๐Ÿ™‚

            Feb 27, 2020 27:10 AM

            Eventually the nations of the world may very well have to declare a debt Jubilee as we’ve discussed so many times.

        Feb 27, 2020 27:58 AM
        Feb 27, 2020 27:11 AM

        Ex:
        Thanks for responding to my rant. I guess the thing that disturbs me is that Congress, Administrations and the Fed go for years deregulating and then allowing corruption in the financial system to run rampant. Then when everything is blowing up in their face, they decide the guy on the street has to pay for it. In the old days (prior to computers), action would be taken to debate the budget, attempt to control spending, regulate with the purpose of preventing fraud, monopolies and fake financial instruments such as derivatives, etc. There would also be restructuring of corrupt entities like our current Fed and banks and put “criminals” in jail (savings and loan fiasco led to over 2000 convicted bankers). But these days, we do civil cases and charge fines. Then if we get really tough, we do Criminal Cases against the New Citizens United “person entity” and charge the corporation fines. For all we know since there are no audits of The Fed, all fines could be paid by “no bail out” funds under the table. Then we point the big finger of guilt at the citizens of the United States and say “you have been found guilty of allowing corrupt individuals to steal the US Treasury”. You must be punished, after we find a place to house you…sorry there are no Jobs. That’s kind of my point. Corruption has been allowed to run wild or more correctly has been facilitated by those in authority. They should be dealt with and solutions more favorable to the people be initiated. The banks will not fail if their leaders go to jail (like they should have in 2008).

    Feb 26, 2020 26:23 PM

    As the world becomes more and more topsy turvy and erratic, one cannot help but wonder when we receive the next “paradigm” like shift in how we live our daily lives. This shift will come to pass on all levels; socially, economically, geopolitically, religiously, environmentally and medically speaking, life could be very different from today compared to tomorrow.

    Whether coronavirus serves as that “paradigm shift” or not, only time will tell. This shift is inevitable because of increasing divisions and volatility littered throughout the world… Not to mention hidden agendas. Also prevailing trends in modern times suggest that each major global crisis almost supercedes the immediate prior crisis. With this in mind we surely are not too far from another world changing event. I personally think this event is likely to occur either within the economic landscape or to directly affect this landscape as there are so many red flags indicating a broken system waiting to crash. I suppose the question is: How much longer is that road going for that has a kicked can tumbling down it???

      Feb 27, 2020 27:25 AM

      Ozibatla – I just read your comments here after reflecting on the one above, and realized we both discussed a change in the paradigm, or a world changing event.

      Every few years there is a new scare, prediction, prophecy, religious sign, simulated model, study, etc… about a major change in the world. For some reason, people are obsessed with when a major shift will happen to the existing order, and as you brought up, some sinister groups believe they can orchestrate such a change.

      Regardless of whether it is technological, social, environmental, geo-political, economic, or spiritual, there is a craving for change and something new under the surface, but it just may come from a more painful experience rather than a proactive course correction. Regardless of the desire by many to tear the old system down and replace it, I haven’t heard or seen too many with that great of a replacement plan or rosier alternate course. People will do more to avoid pain, than to seek pleasure, so it will more likely take some major pain point and disruption to daily life, (something like a pandemic virus or meteor impact), to get people to choose a new direction and ditch the old. Until then… buy gold. ๐Ÿ™‚

        Feb 27, 2020 27:39 AM

        Sound words indeed Ex. May we live in interesting times!

    Feb 27, 2020 27:28 AM

    AXU is having a rough go of it this morning. Does anyone have any idea where this could bottom?

    Feb 27, 2020 27:07 AM

    Price of Gold is $1650 and gold stocks are behaving like its trading around $1000
    I feel like there’s going to be a snap back in mining shares in coming days. Maybe Mr Market was anticipating this crash in market and preventing GDX to rise above its resistance?

      Feb 27, 2020 27:10 AM

      You are probably right and it didn’t help that the miners had become overbought just as stocks were about to plunge.

      Feb 27, 2020 27:12 AM
        Feb 27, 2020 27:25 AM

        Agree with you that miners were overbought. A couple of days ago Rick Ackerman said it right. Gold is going to frustrate the hell out but its going to go up!
        Probably margin calls in play with miners selling off. During February 2018 sell off in general stock market, miners were hit hard too. But they had a quick snap back rally soon after. I hope that is the case

          Feb 27, 2020 27:46 AM

          Yep, it has been an ugly bloody red day in the markets and the miners, after 2 prior days of selling.

          This is the worst week I’ve seen in my portfolio in a few years, and I agree that it is time to go bottom fishing for a snap back in some of them for next week.

    b
    Feb 27, 2020 27:08 AM

    I have 2 thoughts, this looks good for bottom fishing and we could still be in for more drops.

    I think people are selling everything due to the market coming down, but nothing says the market has stopped coming down.

    If Egon is right we could see a BIG selloff, which would mean mining shares have a ways to come down too.

    I naturally bought yesterday figuring we just needed that gap to be filled,….oops.

      Feb 27, 2020 27:12 AM

      You will be fine in the long run. I’ve a feeling, its going to turn out to be a biggest buying opportunity in mining shares if one has long term view. Time is on our side.

      Feb 27, 2020 27:15 AM

      Yes, the selling may continue, but overall some of the Gold and Silver stocks have sold off so hard this week, that many represent very attractive value propositions and I’m going to be adding with the cash I raised last week and redeploying those funds.

      I bought a little yesterday myself in a handful of names, thinking the same thingk and that we may see a bounce today, but those just got hit even harder today, so I’m waiting to review many of their charts independently for a good spot to add.

    Feb 27, 2020 27:37 AM

    GDX:SPY began the week with a massive 12.5% gap that is now a 2% gap. Get ready for a sharp reversal.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p97719031514&a=723016925

    b
    Feb 27, 2020 27:48 AM

    Your fine in the long run if you live long enough.

    Silver spikes 1980 2011…30 years, Its possible we need to wait another 20 years for the next one.

    Bugs/investors wont think so, but what happens if the governments come out with their own cryptos to combat the destruction of the currencies?

    People are not too bright, the trick could work and there is no telling how long it would work.

    Governments could nationalize mines as Mexico is talking about doing or metal could be confiscated for the national interest, especially if currencies go gold backed and your government doesnt own any.

    Personally I look at this price drop as a buying opportunity, there could be a better opportunity around the corner tho, the doldrums maybe.

    It looks to me gold does what it always has and I think it will continue to do so, my point tho is, ya just never know.

      b
      Feb 27, 2020 27:03 AM

      The quick reversal is also a possibility. ๐Ÿ˜‰

        Feb 27, 2020 27:10 AM

        In the long run we are all dead but my point was, mining shares have not been this cheap compares to price of gold since Dot com burst. Time will tell

          Feb 27, 2020 27:28 AM

          It does look like an attractive opportunity to go bottom fishing for deals. Many companies I was waiting for a pullback in, did finally pullback, but the only issue is almost all of the stocks pulled back at the same time, making it difficult to rotate funds. I’m just adding with cash reserves personally.

          Feb 27, 2020 27:31 AM

          And the technicals are on your side. In fact, the charts are more compelling now than 20 years ago. Gold would have to fall $75 from here just to get down to the UPPER quarterly Bollinger Band (!). The big picture is extremely bullish looking.

          Feb 27, 2020 27:36 AM

          As long as gold is above 1523.10 by the end of March, we will have the sixth higher quarter in a row. That hasn’t happened since 2010-11. If we close this quarter above the upper quarterly Bollinger Band, it will be the fourth time in a row. That hasn’t happened since 2007.

            Feb 27, 2020 27:39 AM

            Matthew – when do you think Silver will make more of a move relative to Gold, as it still hasn’t broken above the 2016 surge high of $21.23, but Gold left that peak in the dust last year. I’m a little surprised that Silver hasn’t made it up into the low to mid $20’s yet.

            Feb 27, 2020 27:45 AM

            Ex, I think silver will move relative to gold very soon and will probably exceed $24 this year.

            Feb 27, 2020 27:48 AM

            This chart is not live but silver’s low today happened just above that fork:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p44594711582&a=547788271

            That is a potentially very bullish inverse H&S continuation pattern.

            Feb 27, 2020 27:18 AM

            Thanks Matthew. I liked Christopher Aarons target of $23 from that video he did last week on Silver, and if it got up above $21.23, then it would be a large victory confirming the next impulse leg higher.

            $24 would also turbo charge the Silver miners, and that would be A-OK with me.

            Feb 27, 2020 27:20 AM

            At least Silver has put in a series of higher lows, to the bias is still bullish, but once it breaks out above the old highs, then it will bring in new money into the Silver stocks, and that is where things will get exciting.

          Feb 27, 2020 27:43 AM

          I just got this bulletin from my broker:
          TSE is currently unavailable for trading due to technical problems at the exchange.

            Feb 27, 2020 27:55 AM

            Just now:
            VENTURE is currently unavailable for trading due to technical problems at the exchange.

            Feb 27, 2020 27:23 AM

            technical problems = circuit breaker to stave off the selling.

            Feb 27, 2020 27:25 PM

            Just now:
            To TSE,VENTURE traders:
            Thu Feb 27 15:23:27 2020 EST
            TSE,VENTURE and ALPHA are currently unavailable for trading due to technical problems at the exchange.
            The TSX has been unable to resolve the technical issues affecting the TSE, VENTURE and ALPHA platforms. These exchanges will remain in a technical halt until the end of the day. As a result, the TSE Market on Close Factility will not run today.

      Feb 27, 2020 27:20 AM

      Best thing to do…………..DO NOT GET GREEDY…….the con men will get you every time….If, you are not in control…..you are not in control…… ๐Ÿ™‚

    Feb 27, 2020 27:51 AM

    wow, time to go shopping! I just picked up some NGD @ .89 now drooling over LOMLF looking pretty good to me!

      Feb 27, 2020 27:22 AM

      Yes, it is time to go shopping for deals and while I have a nice profitable position in Lion One, I’ve also considered adding here to my position since it finally pulled back some after going on a tear for a year. It’s one I wouldn’t mind having a larger position size in.

    b
    Feb 27, 2020 27:46 PM

    TSX shut down, just another risk for the markets.

    Thats why I buy jr miners, the payoffs can be big and I figure the payoffs have to be big as the risks are big.

    So much for bottom fishing for the time being.

    Feb 27, 2020 27:05 PM

    All is not lost……………..VACCINE IN A FEW WEEKS>>>>>>>>>
    The cure is at hand……….
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-scientists-say-they-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-few-weeks

      Feb 28, 2020 28:27 AM

      If geek Gates has anything to do with the vaccine, you can count me out.