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Key takeaways for gold and silver moving through summer

Cory
April 1, 2020

Doc wraps up our editorials today by looking at the monthly charts for gold and silver. I have posted the gold chart below for you to follow along with the technical factors we are both watching.

Discussion
52 Comments
    Apr 01, 2020 01:39 PM

    EX …….you out there, ….give me your take on Gary S….concerning his BULL MARKET thinking…..saw you posted his site , over at ceo……..thanks…

      Apr 02, 2020 02:49 AM

      Gary has an interesting take that most market commentators are getting too bearish on the general markets, and he feels the recent correction will be bought back up, and that the secular bull market in the general equities is not over yet.

      Personally, I’m still on the fence with with whether the general equities have one more push from all the FED liquidity and money sloshing around from government spending, but I’m willing to review anyone’s analysis if it is well thought out, and particularly when it is a contrarian viewpoint to the herd.

      I’ll repost his video here since you brought it up, and let other investors make up their own minds where they stand in relation to the movements of the general markets.

      ___________________________________________________________

      Ignore The Perma Bears – They Will Be Wrong Again
      Smart Money Tracker – March 26, 2020

      https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2020/03/ignore-the-perma-bears-they-will-be-wrong-again.html

        Apr 02, 2020 02:33 AM

        EX……….thanks……I kind of feel the same as you….
        and especially, thanks for bringing forward the tape.

          Apr 02, 2020 02:57 AM

          Jerry, do you think tweety bird is back! DT

            Apr 02, 2020 02:16 AM

            Now, that is a good question……I do not know……

            Apr 02, 2020 02:21 AM

            I see a lot of similarities in posting patterns, the attacks are becoming relentless, of course tweety is going to deny, deny, and deny until he can’t anymore. DT

            Apr 02, 2020 02:25 AM

            Great observation DT………..Who do you think…..you do not have to answer, if, you do not feel comfortable ……thanks for the thought.
            I think I can guess, …but, I really do not know.

            Apr 02, 2020 02:41 AM

            Now, I see some comments…..reminding me of Tweety…….

            Apr 02, 2020 02:06 PM

            I don’t think you are correct there. Just shorten the posters first name and use the last initial if it is who I think you are inferring.

            Apr 02, 2020 02:48 PM

            Dt….Now you have me thinking…….

            Apr 02, 2020 02:50 PM

            Oh, wait…..that was you EX…..I thought that was DT…asking…

          Apr 02, 2020 02:35 AM

          Let’s see how this plays out, I know you know who I mean and he won’t be long in trying to defend himself. DT

            Apr 02, 2020 02:47 AM

            Ok,….this should be interesting……I believe I know….

        Apr 02, 2020 02:20 AM

        I don’t know how Gary defines a secular bull but the cyclical bull that began after the 2008-09 fall is definitely over.

        The NYSE Composite Index fell 50% in 18 months versus gold giving back 7 years worth of gains. Stocks could rise significantly from here and even avoid making a nominal new low but this is a bear market so lower real prices are coming.

        Gary might not realize it but stocks beat gold during true stock bull markets. For example, The NYSE Comp Index went up 180% versus gold between mid-2011 and mid-2018 and gained 2,900% versus gold during the great secular bull of 1980 to 2000. On the other hand, the 135% stock rise between 2002 and 2007 was a complete fake, a bear market consolidation, since stocks went absolutely nowhere versus gold.

        Gary is being tricked by the Fed’s funny money.

          Apr 02, 2020 02:29 AM

          Thank you very much……that I would agree with…..I was just wanting to know if, I missed anything…….I have not listened to Gary for months….but, I did happen to listen to him the other day, because someone over at ceo , had posted, and I knew EX, would either know the poster, or, have some worthwhile info………THANKS fro YOUR THOUGHTS..

            Apr 02, 2020 02:33 AM

            Matthew…..btw, did you listen to the tape……only reason I ask, is, Gary mentioned ,
            That the Bull in the Stock Market would continue,…because, it did not capitulate…
            Which is why, I ….thought I may have missed something…..

            Apr 02, 2020 02:36 AM

            Wait……..he called it an “innovation cycle”……and said it is “quite young”

            Apr 02, 2020 02:03 AM

            I just started Gary’s video and right off the bat he’s treating the “nominal” USD performance of stocks over the last 40 years like it’s the same as the real performance. That’s a big mistake that undermines his “innovation cycle” premise but I will continue.

            Apr 02, 2020 02:32 AM

            Toward the end, at around the 5:50 mark, he showed that he and I are not far apart when he said this IS a cyclical bear market. That’s what I started off with above @ 10:20 and I would not rule out nominal new highs for a lot of reasons. Also above, I said that stocks could avoid making a nominal new low which which goes well with Gary’s scenario.

            As for sentiment among retail investors, Gary could be right considering the huge amount of pessimism due to the virus and ESPECIALLY the government’s handling of the virus (absolute fear-mongering) but, interestingly, CNBC nailed it with this call on Feb. 27:
            https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/buying-this-dip-could-get-very-very-nasty-for-investors-trader.html

            CNBC is almost always a contrary indicator when it comes to important calls so I don’t know what to make of that except that it is probably just an anomaly.

            Still, Gary’s comparison to 1987 is legitimate. Sharp breaks within a trend (up or down) tend to be counter move shakeouts and that could easily be the case here considering what they are doing to the dollar. Then you have the massive bond market which is at the end of a 40 year cycle of falling yields (rising prices) so stocks could easily perform well versus currencies.

            Apr 02, 2020 02:58 AM

            Matthew……thanks…….I have reviewed your comment…….

            Apr 02, 2020 02:21 PM

            I’ll tell this, Jerry, the miners are going to blow stocks away even if the stock market does cruise to new highs.
            GDX is up 80% versus the Dow and 133% versus the Russell 2000 in the last 18 months and is set to go much higher.

            Apr 02, 2020 02:43 PM

            I would agree with you 100%…

          Apr 02, 2020 02:55 AM

          Jerry, I will listen now.

            Apr 02, 2020 02:01 AM

            Thanks….appreciate you taking the time…..really….

    Apr 01, 2020 01:18 PM

    DOCK . Day will go fore the GOLD !

    Apr 02, 2020 02:04 AM

    Gold Price Nearing Escape Velocity

    Negative Real Rates and Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion…. Are the Triggers for Gold Above $2,000/oz

    TD Securities – Greg Barnes, Steven Green, Arun Lamba, Craig Hutchison – 04/01/2020

    “Negative real rates, expanding central bank balance sheets, safe-haven
    buying, and the potential for higher inflation, given massive government
    stimulus, are a potent cocktail for higher gold prices over the next 12-24
    months — much like what happened after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), only
    on a bigger scale. We are raising our gold price deck — ”

    https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/cdn.ceo.ca/1f8a0o2-TD%20Gold.pdf

    cfs
    Apr 02, 2020 02:09 AM

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    Apr 02, 2020 02:27 AM

    Well Good………GOLD……above $1600………third time a charm…..hope it holds…

      Apr 02, 2020 02:32 AM

      Humm…….closing time at LBMA, and no phyz….? Paper settlement….beginning of the month….Gold going up….World closed for another month…..and congress is going on vacation…..What a world…..

        Apr 02, 2020 02:36 AM

        Let’s see, what the dirt bags at Crimex do…..should be interesting…..got any 400 oz gold bars to melt down….oh, the refiners are closed….I have a trick ,use a hair dryer, I am told that works… 🙂

    Apr 02, 2020 02:48 AM

    Anyone watching the GOLD FUTURES chart…….
    https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GC*0/futures-prices
    I would like to know…………WHAT IS HAPPENING IN JUNE………look at the AMOUNT of contracts…..compared to the other months….just like to have some thoughts….THANKS

    Apr 02, 2020 02:58 AM

    Just a note……reminder…….
    The first coronavirus COVID-19 case was discovered in China in December 2019 and didn’t become a major issue in the United States until February 2020. But on October 7, 2019, we reported that Wall Street banks had announced a staggering 68,000 job cuts as the Fed pumped $310 billion more in unprecedented loans to Wall Street. That doesn’t sound like there was “nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy,” the narrative that Powell is pushing.

      Apr 02, 2020 02:59 AM

      By Pam and Russ Martens
      Wall Street on Parade
      Wednesday, April 1, 2020

      On March 26 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell went on the Today show to deliver one message: “There is nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy.”

        Apr 02, 2020 02:13 AM

        Nothing wrong fundamentally with going on a large cruise ship… except for the virus.

    Apr 02, 2020 02:28 AM
      Apr 02, 2020 02:29 AM

      After last week’s unprecedented 3.3 million surge in initial jobless claims, this week’s is even more unprecedented-er, adding a stunning 6.648 million (just 100k away from our estimate of 6.5million) for a two-week sum of 10 million new Americans claiming unemployment benefits…

        Apr 02, 2020 02:34 AM

        Number on the USA Debt Clock …NOT IN THE WORKFORCE…….105 MILLION not working…So, at the end……the number will remain the same, because, many will not be finding jobs for a LONG TIME……..JMO

          Apr 02, 2020 02:10 AM

          Doc when will gold stocks finally move up and continue up due to the trillions of dollars globally being put into system to help save economies from this virus shutdown, will it be put off till 2022 now??

            Apr 02, 2020 02:16 AM

            PAUL……..you might want to repost ……DOC……very seldom comments under my posts.
            but, I would give you and answer….but, I do not own any gold stocks…yet…

    Apr 02, 2020 02:31 AM

    Monday:
    On March 30, 2020 at 4:56 pm,
    Matthew says:
    I bet the miners will turn up again by Thursday or Friday…

    Apr 02, 2020 02:06 AM

    UUP:GLD is getting ready to resume its fall, which is a good thing…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p78281591050&a=732463917

    Apr 02, 2020 02:13 AM

    Well, I guess we can button down the hatches…….lower prices……