David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 12 May, 2020

A focus on PM stocks and the M&A in the sector just this week

Dave Erfle joins me to focus on the precious metals sector. We recap the 3 M&A deals that were announced yesterday and what those mean for the broader sector. We then look at the gold and silver space in a broad sense. There are so many encouraging signs right now for the PMs that it’s hard to not get excited.

Click here to visit Dave’s site and learn more about his newsletter.

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Comments:
  1. On May 12, 2020 at 12:29 pm,
    Thomas says:

    Victoria Gold +30% today
    Buyout offer coming?

    • On May 12, 2020 at 6:15 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Good question Thomas. There wasn’t any substantive news out today to explain such a lunge higher, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see they are getting taken out right as they’ve gone into to production, now that all the heavy lifting is completed.

      Clearly somebody knows something or it wouldn’t have moved like this.

  2. On May 12, 2020 at 2:49 pm,
    cmc says:

    VICTORIA GOLD CORP up 27% today.

    • On May 12, 2020 at 2:50 pm,
      cmc says:

      Opps. Guess I should have looked first. Sorry Thomas.

  3. On May 12, 2020 at 3:30 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Canada’s Next Gold Mine on Track for First Gold Pour in Q4

    by @nasdaq on 11 May 2020

    “Pure Gold Mining Inc. (PGM) (LRTNF) is pleased to report mine construction activities at its PureGold Red Lake Mine in Ontario are on schedule for first gold pour before the end of the year.”

    “We are not just building an integrated mining operation. We are building a fully-funded, long-life growth company uniquely positioned in the Red Lake camp, one of the world’s largest gold-producing districts. Our opportunity is tremendous: the real potential to become Red Lake’s next senior gold producer,” says Darin Labrenz, President and CEO. “Our 47km2 property possesses a proven, large high-grade gold system, with the same rocks, structure, timing, geology, grade and endowment potential as Evolution’s Red Lake mine just 15 kilometres away. Work to date has proven we have a clear and precise understanding of the geology and district, and we have demonstrated our ability to execute on our goals. Our future cash flow will fund our aggressive gold growth plans, and there is no more important time to be building a gold mine.”

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/canadas-next-gold-mine-on-track-for-first-gold-pour

    • On May 12, 2020 at 4:40 pm,
      David says:

      Knew there had to be something somewhere. I went ahead and drank wine without finding this as now I can have another. Give me 30 mins before putting up the Vizsla one that was out today. It moved the opposite way from Pure Gold. Still no reason not to drink some more wine.

      • On May 12, 2020 at 6:11 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yes, agreed, there are plenty of good reasons to drink wine on an evening such as this. I saw your comments on the blog yesterday and posted the news there as well about Pure Gold. It is Pure music to my ears… 🙂

        • On May 12, 2020 at 6:20 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          As for (VZLA) Vizsla Resources, it was only down 4% today, so that isn’t so bad.

          While you are drinking a fine glass of wine, I’ll post their presser on today’s exploration results. In my opinion they are good, but not great and there were lots of market expectations for them to keep hitting the higher grade material. Still this just further defines their resources and shows there are minerals in the ground where they expect them to be. I’m still quite constructive on Vizsla Resources personally.

          __________________________________________________________

          Vizsla Provides Drilling Update and Discovers High Grades in Outcrop Samples

          by @newswire on 12 May 2020

          – 4.35 metres at 275 g/t silver equivalent (208.5 grams per tonne (“g/t”) silver and 0.83 g/t gold) in hole AMS-20-08 – Honduras Vein including;
          – 556 g/t silver equivalent (432.0 g/t silver and 1.55 g/t gold) over 1.0 metres

          – 2.6 metres at 232 g/t silver equivalent (150.6 g/t silver and 1.02 g/t gold) in hole AMS-20-12 – Honduras Vein including;
          – 461 g/t silver equivalent (294.0 g/t silver and 2.09 g/t gold) over 0.7 metres

          https://ceo.ca/@newswire/vizsla-provides-drilling-update-and-discovers-high

          • On May 12, 2020 at 6:23 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Vizsla is a KER site sponsor, but for those not familar with their story, they are the latest Silver Explorer/Developer on the block, but with an option to buy a fully built mill that could fast track them into production, and they are right next to First Majestic’s San Dimas mine.

            __________________________________________________

            (VZLA) (VIZSF) Vizsla Resources – Corporate Presentation May 2020

            Copala-PANUCO Silver-Gold District

            https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e3853a120a02d4977c6db91/t/5eab35b37d7864661a5091cf/1588278719201/Vizsla+Corporate+Presentation+-+April+30%2C2020+.pdf

          • On May 12, 2020 at 7:33 pm,
            David says:

            What I found encouraging were some of the gold grades. Not only the silver equivalents, but they may end up with a straight gold option. Goldplay started out that way but is now SR Silver. Vizsla has a lot of drilling to do over a large area. These results are ‘t bad for a start. They do have a lot of previous mines to give them clues where to drill, but they their original objective was to see what is under the water table. So far so good.

          • On May 12, 2020 at 7:35 pm,
            David says:

            GR Silver, not SR silver

          • On May 13, 2020 at 8:48 am,
            David says:

            Somebody else likes Vizsla drill results. My screen shows US + 11% today….in the morning.

          • On May 13, 2020 at 9:02 am,
            Excelsior says:

            +11 David!

            There was news that broke this morning that spiked the punchbowl on VZLA 🙂

            (VZLA) (VIZSF) Vizsla Extends Exploration Period Of Panuco Option Agreements To 2022

            by @newswire on 13 May 2020

            https://ceo.ca/@newswire/vizsla-extends-exploration-period-of-panuco-option

          • On May 13, 2020 at 9:09 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Here are some other reactions to that news over at ceo.ca. It isn’t just us that are excited:

            @tommys – “good job Vizsla!” an hour ago

            @nbgen12 – “That’s tremendous. Michael wasn’t kidding when he said update to come soon.” an hour ago

            @Goldfinger – “Good news this morning on extension and reduction of option payments for Panuco. Puts $VZLA in a much more comfortable position.”

          • On May 13, 2020 at 9:10 am,
            Excelsior says:

            In today’s release from Vizsla here is a nice summation by the big boss:

            CEO Michael Konnert stated, “Vizsla is now in the strongest position yet to execute the option and become a near-term silver and gold producer at the Panuco district. Restructuring the Rio Panuco agreement to extend the option period by one year and the extra runway on the Silverstone agreements is a major success for the Company and shareholders. We now have more time to undertake exploration at the Panuco project ahead of the infrastructure purchase component of the option in 2022. These extensions fortify Vizsla’s business plan of delineating an initial resource to justify the execution of one or both options and enter into production. Building on the recent excellent drilling and sampling results and the lifting of restrictions allowing drilling later this month, the Company is making excellent progress towards its vision at the Panuco silver-gold district.”

          • On May 13, 2020 at 10:13 am,
            David says:

            Ex:
            Thanks for the update. I got so busy banging my head against the wall and wiping off blood, I forgot to check the news. Of course, I’ve gone back to banging mu head after the markets reaction to Powell’s doom and gloom. First priority must have been to attack PMs.

  4. On May 12, 2020 at 6:10 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Cory & David E. – Interesting discussion the topic of mergers but I’m looking at things much differently than you guys are, and see the influx of mergers as a very positive thing for the mining sector for a few key reasons.

    1) As you mentioned we’ve needed to see a Consolidation in the space and many of these mergers (even at market with no premiums) are doing just that.

    So whether it was the Major consolidations we saw last year like Newmont/Goldcorp, or Barrick/Randgold, or Pan American Silver/ Tahoe resources, or these Mid-Tier Producer mergers like Equinox / Leagold or SSR Mining / Alacer they are reducing the sheer number of companies to form larger ones. That is a huge plus for the space, and focuses investor money on a smaller audience of players in the production space.
    __________________________________________________________________________

    2) We discussed mergers and acquisitions on this blog so many times, and we’ve pointed out over and over again that this is misplaced notion and fantasy that the “Majors” are going to take over “Jr Explorers” and pointed out that almost never happens.

    > One of the only examples I can think of is when Kaminak was taken over and that was an anomaly, where the big boy overpaid for a deposit with many unknowns, and it wasn’t the smartest transaction.

    >> If the Majors taking over Jr Explorers was so common then we should be able to list off dozens of these transactions from each year. Here is the rub… that simply doesn’t usually happen, so you guys are going to need to adjust your expectations there. You guys are looking for the takeovers in the wrong areas if you think most explorers are the primary targets of the big boys.

    >> In contrast, every year there are over a dozen Take-Overs of distressed Producers, Single-asset Producers, or unloved and forgotten Developers. That is the M&A sweet spot, and the companies to target to get in front of M&A activity if you want to be on the receiving end.
    ____________________________________________________________________________

    3) Lets start with the Producer takeovers:

    > Look at what we just saw with the recent announcement the takeovers of distressed producers like SEMAFO, Alio Gold, TMAC, and Guyana Goldfields, or bolt-on single-asset producers like the takeover over Detour Gold by Kirkland Lake. Everyone knew SEMAFO, Alio Gold, TMAC, and Guyana Goldfields were struggling, and everyone knew Detour was a cash cow that would eventually get taken over by a Major.
    —-> That’s the recipe you are looking for!!

    >> Think back to the takeovers that stick out from the last few years (beside the Mega Mergers of Majors) and they are NOT Majors taking over Explorers. They are either really advanced Developers near production, or more often bolt-on producers for the Mid-tiers that acquire them: Newmarket Gold, Claude Resources, Lakeshore Gold, True Gold Richmont, Klondex, Detour, Metanor, Marlin Gold, Avnel Gold, Avesoro Resources, Rye Patch Gold, Primero, etc…

    >>> We had discussed all of those older takeovers BEFORE they actually happened and I was in all of those just prior to takeovers, (except Claude, because I had sold out too soon before they got grabbed). The reason why is because they were so obvious as targets.

    In the late summer of 2017 someone asked who we felt the next takeover targets would be and I said (RIC) Richmont and (KDX) Klondex would be next. I got immediately chastised by 2-3 prominent posters there saying they were both struggling and garbage and why would anyone want those dogs. Well (AGI) Alamos Gold acquired (RIC) Richmont 2 months later [and Monarch got some of RIC’s properties as well], and (HL) Hecla acquired (KDX) Klondex n March 2018.
    —> I reposted that thread for those posters to see it all grouped together once the news broke, and it was crickets from them….. Those takeovers were hiding in plain sight and almost everyone was too conditioned to look for only the “best of the best”, and simply could not imagine that it was really the “Best of the Worst” that the larger producers wanted.

    > Another example:

    In 2017 over at ceo.ca e were naming who we felt the next West African takeover would be and I threw out (AVK) Avnel Gold, and most posters nearly threw up at the suggestion. When Endeavour Mining announced they were taking out Avnel Gold, many posters there wrote me in private messages — stunned that they were grabbed before so many others. I responded back that the big boys like good deals too, and can take a good asset and operate it much better than Jr developer or producer can.

    >> So to recap: Either there are:

    (A) quality assets in a distressed company that a big boy feels they can run better or
    (B) there is a company just finishing up a turnaround, and when the big boys sense they are ready to finally make money then they pounce. (like what just happened to Alio)

    Those are the kinds of companies investors should be searching for if they want takeover premiums, and not the hottest cult stocks of the moment.

    >>>> Here are a few distressed producers or high quality Single-asset Producers just begging to be taken over right now to augment a larger producers production profile:

    (AKG) Galiano [formerly Asanko], (HRT) Harte Gold, (NEE) Northern Vertex, (HUM.L) Hummingbird Resources, (ROXG) Roxgold, (ANX) Anaconda Mining, (SAM) Starcore International, (SGI) Superior Gold, (TRY.AX) Troy Resources, (NGD) New Gold, (MML.AX) Medusa Mining, (MND) Mandalay Resources, (TXG) Torex Gold, and (WGX.AX) Westgold.
    _______________________________________________________________________________

    4) The other group that is primer for takeovers are the advanced Developers with known deposits, clear economic studies done at lower Gold prices, that are even more economic today. This is why Gran Columbia is taking over Gold X Mining right now.

    In the past years there have been regular takeovers of attractive Developers like Reservoir Minerals, Dalradian, Continental Gold, Gryphon Minerals, NewCastle Gold or unloved and forgotten developers, Barkerville Gold, Golden Reign, Savary Gold, Beaufield, Merrex Gold, Kiska Metals, Anfield Gold, Pershing Gold, etc…
    … or how about the failed attempts at taking over Dolly Varden, or Maritime Resources?

    >>> There are about 100 Advanced developers that seem likely to be takeover candidates in the Gold space, because at one point they will be developed into mines.

    A few that come to mind are Marathon, Minera Alamos, Sabina Gold & Silver, Orezone, Osisko Mining, Treasury Metals, Triumph Gold, West Kirkland, Probe Metals, Orca Gold, Bonterra, Novagold, Seabridge, Bluestone Resources, Gold Standard Ventures, Falco Resources, Midas Gold, Corvus gold, Maritime Resources, etc…. There are a lot of them, but they have been derisked, will get revalued higher as metals prices rise, and have the takeover aspect as a kicker and liquidation event to exit one’s position into.
    ____________________________________________________________________________

    5) There are investors that are in the companies doing the acquiring, and investors in the companies getting acquired, and there are positives and negatives for both groups in any acquisition.

    > To only look at it through the lens of wanting to get a great premium in the company being taken over, and getting disappointing if they are just 40-60% premiums at the share prices lows is kind of a “glass half empty” approach. Yes, everyone loves a good takeover of a company moving steadily higher, because the M&A deal is the icing on the cake, but sadly that is now how most producers buy. Most want a deal and want to pick off good assets when there is blood in the streets, just like investors do. As a result, many takeovers come when the company being acquired is swirling the drain.

    >> With many of these distressed companies, there are investors that get in right before the merger, for just the very reason of getting positioned before the big boys go shopping. One of the sub-sectors I look for is the “Best of the Worst” where there is a quality asset that is a dog and I buy when there is blood in the street and over and over have had nice scores doing this, or have caught a few turnaround stories if they dig themselves out of the hole.
    I got in when things looked bleakest for Richmont, Klondex, New Market Gold (via the predecessor Crocodile Gold), Metanor, Lake Shore Gold, Corex, Avnel Gold, etc… so when the premium came, it was a nice score. I actually had just gotten in TMAC for the same reasons about a month before this merger, but jumped back out because I felt they may have a dillutive financing or go bankrupt, but it was the right idea.

    No, long suffering shareholders don’t get rewarded in those transactions, unless they averaged down, but they were the same people that held a loser for years so that is on them. The takeover premiums don’t go to folks like that, but to the bottom fishers.

    Example: If someone held onto Guyana Goldfields from $8 down to $.80 then I have little sympathy for them that the takeover premium didn’t make them whole.

    Instead of looking for the bloated and often overpriced best of the best, more investors should be researching companies with flaws that are wounded, that other larger producers believe they can take over and do a fixer upper. Those are the ones to bottom fish, and that is not without risk, but the odds are much higher a bigger fish will eat them.
    _____________________________________

    >>> Lastly, there are investors in the larger companies, that are doing the acquisitions, that are thrilled to see their companies doing a great deal and reel in a win. I’ve often celebrated when a good management team picks off the weak and wounded for pennies on the dollar as it really solidifies that new larger company. When Equinox picked off the mine from New Gold on the cheap that was a great deal for them, but not for New Gold. That is the nature of a buyer’s market and no different than real estate or collectibles, or any other asset class that someone gets a great deal on.

    > Example: That is how I felt up until this week about (SVM) Silvercorp making the initial offer to nab (GUY) Guyana Goldfields on the cheap. I was happy they were getting such a steal, but it appears they have now been outbid by Gran Colombia. Still there is the excitement of knowing you just got a deal, that was overlooked in your comments today.*

    >> Another Example: When Primero (P) was being raided, at the time I was pissed in how it was going for them, but I also owned McEwen Mining (MUX) that scooped up Black Fox, Argonaut (AR) that gobbled up Cerro del Gallo, and First Majestic (AG) that got San Dimas. All 3 of those producers MUX, AR, and AG won big by being the acquirer and I was proud of those management teams for picking up good assets at a good price. *

    >>> One more example: I was freaking thrilled when (USAS) Americas Gold & Silver picked up Pershing Gold for a song and a dance, and nobody challenged them. That was a huge score, as they are now showing, and at the time people belly-ached that it wasn’t a good deal for long-suffering Pershing shareholders. Who gives a flip about investors that sat in a sinking ship for years. I was thrilled to be on the side grabbing the good asset, because I believe in the team at USAS and knew they’d get it developed and into production and they have. *

    *** That is the great side of these acquisitions that are being missed if you only look at the takeover premiums for companies getting poached. The other side of the equation is all the gains the acquiring companies are getting by doing the acquisition.

    • On May 13, 2020 at 6:16 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Great read………this (your) article needs to be published……..tremendous amount of forethought, along with your gained experience over the last ten years, contained within. We should put it in the KER HISTORY BOOK…..Lot of valuable info contained inside….

      • On May 13, 2020 at 6:58 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks OOTB. I follow the M&A transactions closely, and appreciate the kind words.

        Yeah, maybe it will all go in the KER History Book one day…. (lol) 🙂

  5. On May 13, 2020 at 6:00 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Ex, truly a gold mine of information! There is nothing else for anyone to add it’s all been covered. A gas ray from a comet, you can’t be from planet earth! LOL! DT

  6. On May 13, 2020 at 8:22 am,
    SilverDollar says:

    Just wondering how many of the bulls on this page ever consider the opposite scenario that gold and miners are headed to the moon. This Danish analyst believes we’re headed much lower before the fireworks start.
    https://palisaderadio.com/henrik-zeberg-why-gold-is-heading-to-800-before-an-explosive-upside-move/

    • On May 13, 2020 at 8:39 am,
      Matthew says:

      I always consider the opposite scenario. There’d be no point to analysis of any kind if I was certain that gold could only go higher.

      Now with that out of the way, I don’t know what Henrik is smoking, but it ain’t eel.

      There is no credible basis for such a crash but I’ve come across some bad Elliott Wavers who agree with Henrik. I wonder what Avi Gilbert thinks.

    • On May 13, 2020 at 8:49 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Silverdollar. We covered that guys’s “analysis” on the Monday Chris Temple blog.

      I’m always interested in hearing the bearish case or a thesis that challenges one I hold as that is how we get contrast and balance, but that guys whole interview was wacko.

      Here were some initial posts on Monday between OOTB and myself reflecting on it.

      ________________________________________

      > On May 11, 2020 at 11:46 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “This latest guest on Palisade Radio doesn’t believe Gold will make it to it’s all time high, and instead is calling for Gold to head down to $800 first. Yikes, we got a Harry Dent Jr here, except he says he’s a bullish on Gold longer term.”

      “Honestly, this doesn’t make much sense, because if Gold went down to $800 it would break the Gold bull market, decimate sentiment for a long time, kill off most of the Gold miners, and it would be time to fold up shop and get into cryptos. 🙂 ”
      ________________________________________

      > On May 12, 2020 at 9:15 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      “The guy is a DUMB ASS……..HZ…….that is……jmo… of course….
      Tell the guy…about tier one assets…..”

      ______________________________________________

      > On May 12, 2020 at 9:32 am,
      Excelsior says:

      “Agreed OOTB. I’d never heard of that Henrik Zeberg dude before, but am willing to give anyone a listen one time to understand their reasoning.”

      “He went off down the Elliot Wave rabbit-hole as his rationale, and seems to think Gold would rally to new highs after first crashing down to $800 (Harry Dent style). As mentioned above, a crash like that way below production costs for most companies would damage the Gold charts, gold miners, and sentiment in the sector for many years and, no, gold would not rocket back up to new highs after that kind of a move.”

      “It is pretty ridiculous when Gold is just about $200 shy of making it to the all time highs now, and after it has been in a bull market since making it’s Major Low at $1045.40 in Dec 2015. Gold is up about $700 and 70% since then, and is far more likely to break out to new highs in 2020 on or 2021.”

      “All of those bears (or supposed bulls like this guy) that have been calling for a “Final Washout” since Dec of 2015 have been flat out wrong, and there has never been this alleged final washout. Instead there have been a number of substantial pullbacks like off the highs in 2016, or in 2018 into year end, or May of 2019, or March of 2020, and each time those were buying opportunities, but these scare-mongers were advising to wait until Gold goes down and breaks $1000 to $800, $700, $400….. and then the rally will start. Yes, they are idiots….”

      > On May 12, 2020 at 9:44 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      “EX…..I agree 100%…..on….that way below production costs for most companies would damage the Gold charts, gold miners, and sentiment in the sector for many years and, no, gold would not rocket back up to new highs after that kind of a move.”

      • On May 13, 2020 at 8:54 am,
        Excelsior says:

        The same video surfaced when someone panicked about the bullish thesis in Gold over at ceo.ca yesterday and these were some of the responses:

        @Finanzr – “Who is this Zeberg guy?”

        _____________________

        @riskreward – “Watched the 1st video in your post…after Henrik said something about post WWII record low debt levels and that Bretton Woods system was created in 1949…I stopped listening. Those 6 minutes that I managed to get through was a complete waste of time.”

        ______________________________________________

        @J_Serendipity – “Gold works as a hedge against inflation. All the gov’ts are trying to fix the #Covid-1984 problem by printing more money, creating more inflation! Gold is only going up.”

        • On May 13, 2020 at 8:59 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I went on a similar but longer rant over there about that guys thesis on ceo.ca when this debate was going on added a bit more to the comments I made here at the KER.

          https://ceo.ca/@excelsior?350e55ba9cc2

      • On May 13, 2020 at 9:10 am,
        Matthew says:

        Ex, we agree overall but I don’t think our arguments can include this:

        “It is pretty ridiculous when Gold is just about $200 shy of making it to the all time highs now, and after it has been in a bull market since making it’s Major Low at $1045.40 in Dec 2015. Gold is up about $700 and 70% since then, and is far more likely to break out to new highs in 2020 on or 2021.”

        None of that matters to the fractal analysis that is EW. They are expecting an ABC correction like this:
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31034331569&a=753682923

        • On May 13, 2020 at 9:15 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Understood, but he deviated from his Elliot Wave analysis when his justification of the retracement was everything was going to sell off, including Gold, when everyone floods into the US Dollar for safety, ala Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake theory, only at least Brent understood that Gold and the Dollar would go up in tandemn.

          Then this HZ guy said after the ABC correction, Gold would turn around and jolt to new highs. Gimme a break, the charts and sentiment would be destroyed at $800 Gold, and most miners would go out of business.

          I’ve seen too many mental gymnastics with the Elliot Wave guys over the years and extreme upside and downside calls like this that rarely if ever pan out. I like how Gary Wagner approaches Elliot Wave in conjunction with Japanese Candlesticks, trendlines, and moving averages much more than this HZ clown.

          • On May 13, 2020 at 9:17 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Of course anything is “possible” but with Trillions of dollars being printed out of thin air each week it would seem that ABC leg is not “probable”.

            It is far more probable there was an ABC leg down in the bear from 2011 to 2015, and that we are completing a 5 wave leg to the upside in the current bull market.

          • On May 13, 2020 at 9:30 am,
            Matthew says:

            I don’t know how a good Elliott Waver would count it but I agree that the correction reached its conclusion in 2015. The scale occupied by the ABC correction that I showed belongs to the bulls and the Wavers will know that when the old high is taken out.

          • On May 13, 2020 at 9:41 am,
            confused says:

            I don’t see how the Fed prints trillions and gold goes the exact opposite way?! There has never been a case for that. I’ve been reading Ray Dalio on Linkedin….Headbergler Ziltch should read that guy. Ray will educate that “E-waver” on 500+ years of monetary theory and paper money history….spoiler alert…ALL PAPER money eventually gets devalued and dies. Dalio has some great historical charts that lays it all out. He screamed at us to buy gold last fall because “Cash-IS-NOW-Trash” and is will continue to accelerate lower more than ever. Gold does go up in deflationary periods too!!! I guess HK could be right, but his arguments don’t make any sense to me. Maybe I need to watch it ten times and start drinkin that “E-Wave-Energy Drink” I see the banks selling;}

          • On May 13, 2020 at 9:42 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed. I believe we’ll see the 2011 high eclipsed in 2020.

          • On May 13, 2020 at 9:48 am,
            SilverDollar says:

            Thanks guys for the extended comments on the Danish analyst. I hadn’t seen Mondays input so thanks for reposting Ex.
            FWIW David Hunter on Palisade a week or so ago had some interesting thoughts. He’s looking for gold up to $2,000 at least between now and Labor Day; then a but in the general economy that takes PMs back down also…….possibly cutting gold in half before it then during a big recovery stages a comeback to over $10,000. I guess in a ‘free’ country we can all have our opinions but to be honest, I’ve book marked this one for future reference!

          • On May 13, 2020 at 9:52 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Sure thing Silverdollar. David’s interview on Palisade Radio made more sense to me.

            I had posted this on Monday as well, but while we’re on the topic of Palisade interview:

            This guest on Palisade, Mark Yusko, has much more of a clue and cogent comments.

            _____________________________________________

            Mark Yusko: Gold Miners are Orders of Magnitude Undervalued Relative to Gold

            Palisade Radio – May 6, 2020 #AudioInterview

            Time Stamp References:
            0:30 – His journey into investing.
            5:30 – This rally isn’t sustainable.
            8:40 – America is addicted to debt.
            10:30 – Bear markets take 18 to 24 months.
            12:15 – 3 Trillion in additional debt.
            16:00 – The value of a dollar today.
            20:00 – Why value doesn’t die.
            23:30 – His alternate FANG.
            29:00 – Gold is wildly undervalued.
            30:00 – Countries will inflate their currency.
            36:30 – Avoiding your personal cognitive bias.

            https://youtu.be/aZ_3WdkNY1g

          • On May 13, 2020 at 10:34 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            EX…….Check out HOW OLD the Kindergarden “HZ Guy” might be…..Anyone that has not been in this market at least 15 yrs. don’t know SHI+

          • On May 13, 2020 at 10:40 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            EX…..sounds like Tweety Bird extract…… 🙂
            Never did make it to $689…..LOL

          • On May 13, 2020 at 11:54 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks and agreed OOTB. Haha! Yeah, no sub $1000, no $900’s $800s $700s or $600s.

            No final washout… People seem to miss the point that 2015 WAS the final washout.

  7. On May 13, 2020 at 8:53 am,
    Matthew says:

    Excellent news from JAG and Q2 should be even better since the entire quarter will be free of hedges…
    Jaguar Mining Reports First Quarter 2020 Financial Results, Free Cash Flow and Stronger Liquidity
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jaguar-mining-reports-first-quarter-103000084.html

    • On May 13, 2020 at 8:56 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Nice. Go JAG!

      Yes, I want to see how things look when the next quarter results come in and they are operating “hedge free”. 🙂

  8. On May 13, 2020 at 9:13 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Hey Ex. I haven’t done the calculation recently but that discount between rzz and gzz looks like it’s getting even bigger with rzz over $20 now.

    • On May 13, 2020 at 9:19 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Good point Wolfster. I haven’t looked at it in a while either and just know that Golden Valley is deep value in comparison to their peppy love child Abitibi Royalties. 🙂