Hour 1 – Markets and Metals – The Fed Put, Gold Stocks to Watch In The Golden Triangle, and Great Bear Resources
I hope you all enjoy this weekend’s show! I balanced out the broad market comments with thoughts on the precious metals and an update from Great Bear Resources
Please keep the emails coming to Fleck@kereport.com. I love hearing about the companies you are investing in.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Rick Bensignor kicks off the show with his outlook for US markets, the US bond market, and the precious metals.
- Segment 3 – Brien Lundin and I chat about the Golden Triangle and companies that have some interesting exploration programs this year.
- Segment 4 – Chris Taylor, President of Great Bear Resources joins me to recap the recent high-grade drill results at a new exploration area called the Arrow Zone. Click here to read over the full news release.
Exclusive Company Interviews The Week
- SilverCrest Metals – Drilling Restart and Balance Between Exploration and Production
- Osisko Metals – Diving into the Pine Point PEA
- Mountain Boy Minerals – An Introduction to this explorer in the Golden Triangle
Glenfidish………good summary , I would say…..
My thoughts are exactly your’s concerning gold going higher. Why, nothing has changed, on the printing press, and inflation. The story remains the same…….JMO
Good comments Glenfidish, and I tend to agree, but with a few minor tweaks.
The key number for Gold to take out first is the recent high from earlier in the year of $1788.80, so it will mark a new impulse leg to a higher high.
I’m more optimistic that Gold has a chance of taking out it’s old surge high of $1923.70 this year.
(for some reason I thought it was $1921, but $1923.70 is the all time high on stockcharts).
If it takes Gold until Q1 2021 to break the A.T.H. at $1923.70, as you are forecasting, then that still won’t be that long of a wait, and actually gives the miners more time to absorb and react to the higher metal prices. Regardless of whether Gold making a new All Time High happens later this year or the beginning of next year, when it does, and the news headlines cover it, it will be the energy needed to bring in more generalist investors.
Longer view Gold Chart showing the prior 2011 peak, the bear market from Sept 2011 through Dec 2015, and the new bull market that started after that major low was put in at $1045.40 in December of 2011.
At current gold prices [in the mid $1700’s], really most miners should be doing FAR better than they are at present; but some producers and developers are finally starting to wake up a little bit.
If anyone looks at where these same mining companies were back when Gold was last at these $1700’s price levels, then there is a shocking disparity between those prices and today’s prices. What is puzzling about this is that most of the Majors and Mid-tier Producers (or even the Small producers) didn’t have their costs nearly as low as they do now, nor did they have so many more assets in development or production. (granted, some do have a larger more diluted share count now as well)
Most miners still have a lot of catching up to do in their share prices to where Gold has already moved, just to get even remotely close to where they were trading in 2011 when Gold was last at these prices.
GDX Chart – Notice the 2011 levels compared to todays paltry levels. Even if Gold flatlined in the $1700’s to $1800s all year, the miners need to get on the move and digest these higher metals prices.
Good chart……..makes one want to think, …what the heck is going on …Miners should much, much higher…..
Agreed OOTB. Last time in 2009-2011 I remember more excitement in the sector overall (but back in those days I was glued to Kitco 24/7 haha!).
In all seriousness, back when miners were going wild in 2010 and in 2011 there were more generalist investors in the space due to all the news headlines and fear of what the Fed was doing with TARP / QE 1 & 2, and government stimulus like the home credits and cash for clunkers. People were legitimately worried about Inflation showing up in a big way. As a result most saw the miners for what they were = leverage to rising metals prices.
However, since most of that new money didn’t circulate and slosh around in a liquidity swamp, but instead was mopped up by banks and then funneled into the general stock markets, then most of the inflation was contained to the DOW, S&P, Nasdaq, NYSE, and Russell 2000. Talking bobble-heads on the lame stream media’s economic shows pointed around and scoffed at those banging on the Inflation drum point out it never showed up (except it did – in the stock markets).
This time the economic collapse is going to be much more problematic, the Covid-19 shut downs are going to do serious damage to the economy, and just got a sucker-punch when they were down by the riots/looting/burning in many large US cities.
This time the Fed is printing Trillions (not Billions), and the Government Stimulus like the Cares Act and proposed Heroes Act are in the Trillions (not Billions).
This time the pin finally popped the debt bubble, and when Precious Metals soar higher, eventually these Gold & Silver miners are going to blow peoples minds when they start to run.
Ditto EX……….I agree 100%………going to blow peoples minds……
Changes these days are too numerous and abrupt. The stock market is unreliable as an indicator of the health of the economy as it should be. That is terrifying because even traders and investors should understand what is happening at any moment but they don’t. The fear of the unknown has gripped the economy and that causes panic, and gold is the only safe haven. DT
Ditto DT……….got gold……..
Yep. Gold – It’s what’s for dinner…
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/gold3.jpg
Hi ex,
Thanks for your comments. Your input is valuable and let me say I’m in agreement. I think the only difference is our numbers but then again I don’t except anyone person to nail a number and he who says they nail numbers always or he who says they sold at $49 silver and got out is talking smack in my world lol..seems far to easy like the low on June 5th which many thought would retrace further and it left many behind. This game is not easy and greed kills most.
Your contributions are always welcomed and appreciated. For myself personally short term/long term I’m loaded and all in already. Which means for me ex I won’t wait for $1788 or any signal from here forward. Some might take my stance as foolish and irresponsible on there trading methods or numbers. I’m loaded from June 5th. I do understand some silver miners and possibly some gold miners did go a bit further down but the ones I purchased never went pass those lows so for now I’m one f—— happy camper lol. But let’s play with numbers just for fun. For me it’s clear we are break up next week and with authority. Any daily close above $1651 tells me the weekly will close above that level. And any weekly close above $1651/1652 is enough confirmation for me to not wait for the $1788 as that would only indicate to me chasing higher numbers, but that’s me and I get that call it’s more of a conservative approach and more in the back guarantee you would catch a good price movement. Either way I’m in already way ahead of those numbers including my own $1651/1652 weekly close. I’m in since June 5 th trading position. Maybe it’s my risk appetite as I did miss the match 16 low and purchased a bit afterwards.
Curious to know what first major target you have in gold breaking $1920 and what that target would be. Are you willing to give us a number lol or do you need to access more at the time? I really like having everyone’s opinion helps validate things with more strength.
Cheers ex hope we all make a killing..
Oh boy ex,
Luckily I went back and read my grammar 🙁 but noticed that i meant $1751/1752 instead of $1652/1652.
Hope this make sense..
Hey Glenfidish – thanks for the response back and good thoughts mate.
For clarity, I’m not waiting for $1788 Gold to get deployed in miners, but mentioned it was the recent high from earlier this year, and the next key level to clear for Gold to make the next impulse leg higher. To confirm an impulse leg higher, the prior peak must technically be cleared on a closing basis on the daily; but preferably on a weekly basis to confirm the move higher.
It is best to take things one level at at time, and yes, clearing a recent peak is one of the most technically significant things in price action for the next bull leg period on any chart. Therefore $1788 is far more important than $1765 or a round number like $1780 that you mentioned, and that was the only point I was getting at. It had nothing to do with waiting to get positioned, but it is the level I’m watching in Gold as the next key one to clear.
I am likewise 90% positioned at present, after having gone in 100% in mid-March and even pulled money out of savings to deploy at that time as the sell off was so severe and it was such a good buying opportunity, and then trimming some back 2-3 weeks ago in many positions to pull some profits over to cash. I posted about it often at that time here and over at ceo.ca and the reasons why I was trimming a bit back and waiting for pullbacks in June & July to deploy this cash. I’ve already added a bit back in a few stocks I trimmed like Aurcana, Alexco, Coeur, and added Gold Resources Corp, Galiano, and even topped off Kootenay recently. I had added to Sierra aggressively the last few weeks, but trimmed it back a bit on Friday into the 40% surge higher, but still have 75% of that position.
After gold clear $1788 the recent peak on a closing basis on a daily (but preferably a weekly close above it) and confirms we are in the next impulse leg, then I’ll be looking at how high it gets into the $1800s to determine a Fibonacci retracement of that leg back down 23.6% or 38.2% to reposition. As for how high it may go into the $1800s I’ll be looking for trendlines off the $1167.10 low up through $1788.80 to determine that make overhead resistance, and watching for a bigger move in the next few months for a Fibonacci extensions of 23.6% of that move (adding $146.72 to 1788.80 for a target of $1935.52). That would clear the $1923 prior peak and all time high from 2011 and be a target I’d be looking to see by year end.
Jerome Powell says that the economy’s path ahead likely to be challenging
Gary Wagner – June 19, 2020 #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #VIDEO
https://thegoldforecast.com/video/jerome-powell-says-economys-path-ahead-likely-be-challenging
Gold Price & Gold Miners Update
iGold Advisor – Christopher Aaron – June 18, 2020 #TechnicalAnalysis #VIDEO
Key Junior Miners Keep Rallying #Video
Morris Hubbartt – June 19, 2020 – Super Force Precious Metals #TechicalAnalysis #Chart
Morris believes (SCZ) Santacruz is going much higher and I love the chart set up in this short video he put out under SFJ earlier in the week.
Morris covered (SCZ) Santacruz Silver and (LGD) Liberty Gold again on this link from the 19th as well. Looking good.
SFJ Key Charts, Signals, & #Video #TechnicalAnalysis
Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (6/19/2020)
#TechnicalAnalysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Great weekly update as always Kory. Any commentary on CXO.V would be appreciated as seems such tiny mkt cap for such a land package right next to GT’s north and south saddle. Granted they aren’t drilling this years by looks but new CFO might indicate other action ?Cheers
Thanks Jerry..agreed 🙂
Just to be more specific, what I meant above was $1800 will give way to $1880-$1906 which from $1730 is a whopping $150-$170 rise within this timing band of course imo.. However it should be noted regardless the outcome, we are going much higher as you say as well jerry.
🙂
This is a simple as it gets……………
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/von-greyerz-history-tells-us-own-gold-when-central-banks-run-out-control
Gold……..1971……..$35
Gold………today…….$1750
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/crisis-goes-gear-beginning-end-dollar
Same old news, but, might be helpful, for those without understanding…..jmo
The Precious Metals miners are the place to be over the next 12-18 months, and the new wave of Robinhood investors that have flooded the markets since being locked at home during the Covid-19 shutdowns and or were part of the massive job layoffs since March, are likely going to get a harsh lesson from Mr Market about chasing the general markets to nosebleed levels and epitomizing “buying at the top.”
‘La la land?’ The stock market is ‘insanely disconnected’ and due for a ‘reckoning,’ Warren Buffett buff warns
Market Watch – June 18, 2020 – By Shawn Langlois
Those betting against this “absurdly overvalued” stock market are about to get paid, if Kevin Smith, Crescat Capital’s chief investment officer, has it right in his gloomy assessment.
“Speculation is rampant and being championed by a bold new breed of millennial day traders,” he said. “The mania is based on a widespread hope in Fed money printing. The catalysts for reckoning are numerous as a major cyclical economic downturn has only just begun.”
Rookie trader kills himself after seeing a negative balance of more than $700,000 in his Robinhood account
Market Watch – June 18, 2020 – By Shawn Langlois
“The stock market, particularly in its current state, is no place for amateurs.”
“Sullimar Capital analyst Bill Brewster delivered that message to followers in a heartbreaking Twitter TWTR, -1.84% thread in which he shared a family member’s tragic foray into trading.”
“Here’s the full story:”
Investors could be looking at a ‘lost decade’ in the stock market, the world’s biggest hedge fund warns
Market Watch – June 18, 2020 – By Shawn Langlois
‘Even if overall profits recover, some companies will die or their shares will devalue along the way. Left with lower levels of profits and cash shortfalls, companies are likely to come out on the other side of the coronavirus more indebted.’
“That’s part of the reason why Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund, issued a warning to clients this week that equity investors could be facing a “lost decade” in terms of returns.”
A Dangerous Gap Has Opened Up For U.S. Equities
Jesse Felder – June 17, 2020
“It should come as no surprise to most investors that U.S. stocks have dramatically outperformed the rest of the world over the past decade. People have come up with tons of stats demonstrating the extremes that our stock market has reached in this regard. For example, the combined market capitalization of just Apple and Microsoft is now larger than that of the entire German stock market.”
“The question investors should thus be asking themselves is this: ‘Is this divergence sustainable or are U.S. stocks due to give back a good deal of their significant outperformance now that U.S. assets are no longer a relative bargain?’ Further, ‘If they are to give back a big chunk of that outperformance will it come from underperforming on the upside or underperforming to the downside?’ Considering U.S. stocks now trade at record high valuations, my guess would be the latter.”
https://thefelderreport.com/2020/06/17/a-dangerous-gap-has-opened-up-for-u-s-equities/
Thanks Ex. for posting Jesse. I’ve managed to miss him for a couple weeks.
SilverDollar – Yes, it is always nice to get Jesse’s macro economic thoughts. Cheers!
The miners just went through a lost decade. They could learn something about Fed Interference and lost decades.
Ha! That is sad but true David. (although many miners are still up nicely since their 2016 bottoms)
Looking forward to the decade in front of us. 🙂
RE: Seg 1 and 2
“But you don’t want to fight the Fed. That saying was good 20 years ago. It’s still good now.”
Hah! More like 50 years ago. Marty Zweig said that in his book. He also told Louis Rukeyser that many times on his show, Wall Street Week.
Jerry, you out there? I tell you, these whippersnappers have no sense of history!
Ditto EBO………….on the whippersnappers…….clueless…. 🙂
I remember watching Rukeyser’s show in the late 70’s/early 80’s and hearing him say that.
Had a friend you never saw that show so I told him about it…he said Rukeyser looked like George Washington. He would always ask me if I saw George Washington this week!
Lou had a great show……..
I looked forward to the show also. Those were the days when we all believed in fiduciary duty.
Panel Discussion at Adelaide Capital’s Silver Conference June 2020
Adelaide Capital – Jun 18, 2020
Our Silver Conference presenters rejoined Deborah and Tina on a panel to discuss how the macro environment is affecting silver prices, opportunities and risks in Mexico, valuations, and potential M&A activity in the silver space.
Panelists:
Taj Singh, President and CEO of Discovery Metals Corp. (TSXV: DSV, OTCQX: DSVMF)
Bradford Cooke, CEO of Endeavour Silver Corp. (TSX: EDR, NYSE: EXK)
Brendan Cahill, President and CEO of Excellon Resources Inc. (TSX: EXN; EXN.WR, OTC: EXLLF, FRA: E4X1)
Marcio Fonseca, President and CEO of GR Silver Mining Ltd. (TSXV: GRSL, FRANKFURT: GPE, OTCQB: GLYXF)
Peter Megaw, Chief Technical Advisor of Reyna Silver Corp. (TSXV: RSLV)
Chris Ritchie, President of SilverCrest Metals Inc. (TSX: SIL, NYSE: SILV)
(EXK) (EDR) Endeavour Silver Presents at the Adelaide Capital Silver Conference on
Adelaide Capital – June 11, 2020 #VIDEO
“Bradford Cooke, CEO, is a professional geologist and entrepreneur with 43 years of experience in the mining industry. He has specialized in the formation, management and financing of exploration and mining companies and the acquisition, exploration, development and mining of mineral properties. Mr. Cooke founded Endeavour Silver Corp. in 2003 for the purpose of acquiring high-grade silver-gold projects in Mexico. Endeavour Silver Corp. is now a mid-tier precious metals mining company with three high-grade, underground, silver-gold mines in Mexico that produced 7.1 million oz. of silver equivalent metal in 2019 using an 80:1 silver:gold ratio. Endeavour has a compelling pipeline of exploration and development projects to facilitate its goal to become a senior silver producer, anchored by the Terronera Project, which has the potential to become the next core asset. Additionally, Endeavour Silver offers an industry-leading beta to silver price and is currently completing an operational turnaround to reduce costs and increase profitability.”
(EXN) (EXLLF) Excellon Resources Presents at the Adelaide Capital Silver Conference
Adelaide Capital – June 11, 2020 #VIDEO
“Brendan Cahill, President & CEO, & Ben Pullinger, VP Geology, discuss Excellon Resource’s compelling precious metals pipeline.”
1) Platosa – Mexico’s highest-grade silver mine is starting up again imminently after a federal government mandated shutdown. Further optimization of the mine will focus on reduced electricity costs and operational enhancements. NPV is $51.2M (5%, $17/oz Ag).
2) Kilgore – his high-quality gold development in Idaho has strong economics and significant growth and discovery potential. It shows higher grades with significant widths of up to 94.5 metres of 4.21 g/t Au, to be followed-up on. The current resource is ~1 Moz at ~0.5 g/t Au. NPV(5%) is US$223M, IRR 63% (after-tax, $1,600 Au), and capex $81M.
3) Silver City – This high-grade epithermal silver district in Saxony, Germany boasts 750 years of mining history, but no holes have ever been drilled for silver exploration in the region. However, historical records describe veins up to 2.5 metres at 900 to 2,500 g/t Ag at the priority drill target. Drilling is expected to begin by the end of June.
(DSV)(DSVMF)Discovery Metals Presents at the Adelaide Capital Silver Conference on
Adelaide Capital – June 11, 2020 #VIDEO
“Taj Singh, President & CEO, Forbes Gemmell, VP Corporate Development, of Discovery Metals (TSXV: DSV; OTCQX: DSVMF) discuss the Cordero Project. Cordero is the fourth largest development-stage silver project globally with global Resources of 1.5B oz @ 40 g/t AgEq. The Company’s current Phase 1 Drill Program of 30,000-35,000m is focused on defining higher-grade zones, targeting an updated PEA with improved economics and new resource model in 1H2.”
Kevin Wadsworth: Bullish Signals All Set for Gold, Silver, Uranium, and Bitcoin
Palisade Radio – June 20, 2020 #AudioInterview
Since the Golden Triangle was featured on this weekend show with Brien Lundin, here is a list of just how many companies are operating in this tiny area.
#GoldenTriangle Stocks:
EEC 88 Capital Corp
ABN Aben Resources Ltd
AMK American Creek Resources Ltd
APX Apex Resources Inc
AOT Ascot Resources Ltd
AUX Auramex Resource Corp
AUG Auryn Resources Inc
BBB Brixton Metals Corp
CANX Canex Metals Inc
CMC Cielo Waste Solutions Inc
CXO Colorado Resources Ltd
CUU Copper Fox Metals Inc
CEI Crystal Exploration Inc
DMR Damara Gold Corp
DEC Decade Resources Ltd
DV Dolly Varden Silver Corp
DBV Doubleview Capital Corp
DGO Durango Resources Inc
ESK Eskay Mining Corp
ETR Etruscus Resources Corp
EVM Evrim Resources Corp
GGI Garibaldi Resources Corp
GGX GGX Gold Corp
GLDN Golden Ridge Resources Ltd
GLI Glacier Lake Resources Inc
GOT Goliath Resources Ltd
GTB Greatbanks Resources Ltd
GTT GT Gold Corp
HAWK Hawkeye Gold & Diamond Inc
HL Hecla Mining Company
IDM IDM Mining Ltd
III Imperial Metals Corp
ISS International Samuel Exploration Corp
JAX Jaxon Mining Inc
JUGR Juggernaut Exploration Ltd
KGC Kestral Gold Inc
XMG MGX Minerals Inc
MLR Melior Resources Inc
MTS Metallis Resources Inc
MRO Millrock Resources Inc
MTB Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd
MXL MX Gold Corp.
NEM Newmont Mining Corp
OK OK2 Minerals Ltd
PVG Pretium Resources Inc
RMI Ridgestone Mining Inc
RG Romios Gold Resources Inc
ROT Rotation Minerals Ltd
SCOT Scottie Resources Corp
SEA Seabridge Gold Inc
SIR Serengeti Resources Inc
SRS Shamrock Enterprises Inc
SVG Silver Grail Resources
SKE Skeena Resources LtdSSO SSR Mining Inc
SOJ Sojourn Exploration Inc
SRJ Spearmint Resources IncSMD Strategic Metals Ltd
SKP Strikepoint Gold Inc
SSS Sunvest Minerals Corp
TECK Teck Resources Ltd
TG Trifecta Gold Ltd
TUD Tudor Gold Corp
TUO Teuton Resources Corp
TWR Tower Resources Ltd
The Golden Triangle has so many companies peppered all over it, that obviously only about 10% of those will find anything of merit (like Pretium & Seabridge have), or that majors like Teck and Newmont already acquired.
The only 2 I hold positions in currently are (DV) Dolly Varden & (BBB) Brixton Metals.
(TUD) Tudor & (TUO) Teuton [used to have a position in it years ago] have been getting a bid lately, and they have some JVs with each other and (AMK) American Creek & (SVG) Silver Grail.
(SKE) Skeena is a solid choice, with great exploration, but their stock has already run so high with a $244.64 Million market cap, that it’s getting a bit much. For reference, (USAS) (USA) Americas Gold & Silver – a solid Silver/Gold/Zinc/Lead mid-tier producers with 4 operating mines in 3 different mining complexes only has a market cap of $250 Million. Should Skeena be valued the same as Americas Gold & Silver? (no way…) Either USAS is very undervalued [which it is] or Skeena has gotten way ahead of itself [which it has].
As Brien Lundin & Cory mentioned in this weekend show, the #GoldenTriangle is seasonally challenged where they can only really drill from May/June – Sept/Oct in most areas. We are about to get the lion’s share of drill results back in the next few months, so it may be wise for folks to place their bets on 2-3 of these companies, but then if they do well, sell into the enthusiasm, as Golden Triangle stocks are dead as doornail once we get to Halloween in October through the spring March/April.
Teuton Resources Corp TUO.V has a Market Cap of $78 Million
GT Gold Corp (GTT) has a Market Cap of $211.8 Million
Tudor Gold (TUD) has a Market Cap of $240.5 Million
Skeena Resources (SKE) has a Market Cap of $244.6 Million
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I’d rather own these producers with known resources, that are real mining companies and generating real revenues. Look at the disconnect in the prices above as rabid drill junkies push those exploration companies higher and higher, and how much better value these producers are in contrast.
> Silver Producers with lower Market Caps than these Golden Triangle explorers:
(SCZ) Santacruz Silver – M.C. $35.8 Million
(ASM) Avino Silver & Gold – M.C. $45.8 Million
(IPT) Impact Silver – M.C. $70.2 Million
(SBR) Silver Bear Resources – M.C. $90.7 Million
(EXN) Excellon Resources – M.C. $97.3 Million
(MYA) Maya Gold & Silver – M.C. $124.2 Million
(GPL) Great Panther Mining – M.C. $146.6 Million
(SMTS) Sierra Metals Inc – M.C. $174.2 Million
(GGD) GoGold Resources – M.C. – $191.2 Million
and again (USAS) Americas Gold & Silver – M.C. $250 Million (just barely more than GT Gold, Tudor, and Skeena).
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>> Gold Producers – Market Caps:
(IMII) Inceptions Mining – $2.1 Million
(SMC) Sulliden Mining – $3 Million
(IGO) Independence Gold Corp – $3.7 Million
(MXSG) Mexus Gold – $5.6 Million
(SGN) Scorpio Gold – $5.8 Million
(GER) Glen Eagle Resources – $6.6 Million
(SAM) Starcore International – $7.2 Million
(OMI) Orosur Mining – $8 Million
(PGI.AX) PanTerra Gold – $8.2 Million
(SAU.AX) Southern Gold – 11.9 Million
(CGN.AX) Crater Gold Mining – $12.2 Million
(PGDC) Patagonia Gold Corp – $14.3 Million
(IO) Inca One Gold Corp – $18.4 Million
(ORV) Orvana Minerals Corp – $21.2 Million
(NIM) Nicola Mining – $23.4 Million
(HAV.AX) Havilah Resources – $24.6 Million
(PRX.AX) Prodigy Gold – $26 Million
(GG) Galane Gold – $33.5 Million
(ANX) Anaconda Mining – $39.4 Million
(GXS) Goldsource Minies $46.8 Million
(ALTN.L) Altyn PLC – $53 Million
(TRY.AX) Troy Resources – $53.7 Million
(BLK.AX) Blackham Resources – $60.4 Million
(DNG) Dynacor Gold Mines – $70.6 Million
(SBI) Serabi Gold PLC – $73.2 Million
(AGD.AX) Austral Gold Ltd – $75.5 Million
(ALO) Alio Gold – $80 Million
(SGI) Superior Gold Inc – $82.5 Million
(STGO) Steppe Gold Ltd – $82.7 Million
(KCN.AX) Kingsgate Consolidated – $88.2 Million
(SHG.L) Shanta Gold Ltd – $90.5 Million
(F) Fiore Gold Ltd – $96.7 Million
(HRT) Harte Gold Corp – $101.5 Million
(MND) Mandalay Resources – $129.3 Million
(MML.AX) Medusa Mining – $134 Million
(GGD) GoGold Resources – $191.2 Million
(TMR) TMAC Resources Inc. – $199 Million
(CGG) China Gold International – $222 Million
(PNR.AX) Pantoro Ltd – $247 Million
(GORO) Gold Resource Corp – $258.4 (again multiple mines in multiple jurisdictions and just barely more than GT Gold, Tudor, and Skeena. That is crazy…)
Investors should be careful how far up they chase explorers that can only do meaningful work about 6 months out of the year in the Golden Triangle. That doesn’t mean some won’t find some massive deposits, but look at all the actual producers priced lower or in the same area as simple explorers. Many of those companies are just 1 mine, but quite a few have 2-4 other producing mines and they are trading at a discount to drill plays.
That also doesn’t take into account all the advanced developers and near term Gold & Silver producers that are also trading at a severe discount to some of these Golden Triangle drill plays that have yet to prove they have an economic resource.
Simple amazing.
That is true Ex, I wonder when the pendulum will swing back to the producers. Humans love casino’s and the producers look stodgy to the day traders. When the conventional market crashes again that could be the cue to swing more into producers. DT
I just checked on a few and have to post these.
As a refresher here are a few popular Golden Triangle explorers current valuations:
Teuton Resources Corp TUO.V has a Market Cap of $78 Million
GT Gold Corp (GTT) has a Market Cap of $211.8 Million
Tudor Gold (TUD) has a Market Cap of $240.5 Million
Skeena Resources (SKE) has a Market Cap of $244.6 Million
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Now here are some Silver & Gold developers with known resources, big JV partners, and on track to have economic deposits and their Market Caps:
(BHS) Bayhorse Silver – M.C. $10.4 Million
(REX) Orex Minerals – M.C. $11.6 Million
(RRI) Riverside Resources – M.C. $12.6 Million
(SVB) Silver Bull Resources – M.C. $20 Million
(BBB) Brixton Metals – M.C. $23.9 Million
(VZLA) Vizsla Resources – M.C $24.6 Million
(AAG) Aftermath Silver – M.C. $27 Million
(SSV) Southern Silver Exploration – M.C. $27.1 Million
(DEF) Defiance Silver – M.C. $28 Million
(MSV) Minco Silver – M.C. $30.4 Million
(GRSL) GR Silver – M.C. $33.8 Million
(ABRA) AbraPlata Resource – M.C. $34.3 Million
(DV) Dolly Varden Silver Corp – M.C. $38.4 Million
(MMG) Metallic Minerals Corp – M.C. $40 Million
(AUMN) Golden Minerals – M.C. $42 Million
(KTN) Kootenay Silver Inc – M.C. $72 Million
(SVE) Silver One Resources – M.C. $75.4 Million
(AUN) Aurcana Corp – M.C $101.6 Million
(DSV) Discovery Metals Corp – M.C. $215.9 Million
(BCM) Bear Creek Mining – M.C. $234.8 Million
*Aurcana is the highest grade Silver mine on the planet (even higher than Silvercrest, but not as large), Discovery is the 4th largest undeveloped Silver asset, and Bear Creek Mining is the 2nd Largest undeveloped Silver asset only behind MAG Silver.
The point being they are top of class and still some of the Golden Triangle drill plays are valued higher.
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As for the Gold Developers there are too many to list, but I’ll throw out a few key ones just for a frame of reference:
(MAE) Maritime Resources – M.C. $23.4 Million
(ATC) ATAC Resources – M.C. $30.8 Million
(AGG) African Gold Group – M.C. $31.8 Million
(FPC) Falco Resources – M.C. $65.6 Million
(TML) Treasury Metals – M.C. $66.2 Million
(BTR) Bonterra Resources – M.C. $81.4 Million
(VGZ) Vista Gold – M.C. $92.5 Million
(MQR) Monarch Gold – M.C. $98.4 Million
(GLDX) Gold X Mining – M.C. $107 Million
(MAX) Midas Gold Corp – M.C. $146.6 Million
(PRB) Probe Metals – M.C. $153.4 Million
(RMX) Rubicon Minerals – M.C. $167.7 Million
(ORE) Orezone Gold Corp – M.C. $178.3 Million
(LIO) Lion One Metals – M.C. $179.4 Million
(MAI) Minera Alamos – M.C. $191.5 Million
(GSV) Gold Standard Ventures – M.C. $196 Million
(BSR) Bluestone Resources – M.C. $251.4 Million
Again, most of those Silver and Gold developers are FAR better value than where some of these Golden Triangle stocks have climbed to.
End of Rant….. 😉
DT – Yes agreed “Humans love casino’s and the producers look stodgy to the day traders. ”
Most humans forget that normally the casinos win and they loose. It isn’t to say that some of the explorers won’t find an economic deposit, like it appears Skeena is doing, but does it really deserve the same or higher valuation as China Gold Int’l, Minera Alamos, TMAC Resources, Discovery Metals, Orezone Resources, GoGold Resources, Gold Resources Corp, Americas Gold & Silver, or Bear Creek Mining?
Hell they don’t even deserve the valuation of Impact Silver, Excellon, or Sierra Metals.
(SMTS) Sierra Metals is operating 3 mines with Copper, Silver, Zinc, Lead, and Gold production and is valued $50-70 Million less than GT Gold, Tudor, and Skeena. That is wacked out, and the proof the markets are often quite irrational.
As you mentioned DT, when the general markets start to give up their nosebleed levels (which are more ridiculous than these Golden Triangle drill plays), then maybe more generalist money will flow into the Gold and Silver miners and they’ll likely start at the top with the Producers first and then the more advanced Developers moving towards production.
Ever Upward!
Doing my recap today, The Baltic Dry Index is up 68.47% for the week and up 226% for the month.
I wonder what is going on here?
Great stuff guys. OK…here’s a plan. Bought Teuton and made some and rolled into Tudor and made some more. I have Impact, Santacruz, Silvercrest, Dolly Varden, Discovery, Gr Silver, Kootenay, Metallic, Orex, Southern Silver, Silver Bull & Bear & Grail and Vizsla. How about I roll Tudor into Excellon and Aurcana. Or what other excitement might I ponder.
That’s a good question on the movement in the Baltic Dry Index JohnK.
Good plan David – makes sense to me!
David, it may be that Tudor just keeps running and running, but it’s about about 400% already off it’s March lows going from $.40 to $1.67 last Tuesday. However, that gave it a $259 Million Market cap on 06/16/2020 which seems really stretched as already noted above, in comparison to dozens of actual producers or larger developers as noted above.
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You mentioned (EXN) Excellon Resources, which has a Market Cap of $97.3 Million, with Mexico’s highest grade Silver mine (Platosa), the Kilgore Gold development project (from their recent acquisition of Otis Gold) with 1 Million ounces of gold defined in the prior economic study, and their Silver City exploration asset in Germany.
The downside for Excellon, along with almost all the Mexican Silver assets is that their Q2 was mostly a wash with the Covid-19 shutdowns having them down most of April-June. It is unclear if the market already has this properly factored in, or if the Mexican Silver miners will take another hit when their 2nd Quarter results are put out in July/Aug.
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With (AUN) Aurcana Corp their market cap is $101.60 (only 40% of Tudor’s M.C.), but their resource will be admittedly smaller in size that what Tudor is working on. However, Aurcana has the highest grade undeveloped Silver mine on the market, with their Life of Mine AISC projected at US$8.00/oz Silver after by-product credits.
3.1 Million AgEq ounces per annum (US$22M p.a. of cash flow over 1st 5 full years)
9 months to cash flow positive from project start
Existing mine, mill, and infrastructure benefit from >US$90M of investment since 2011
> As a kicker, AUN also has their Shafter Silver mine in Texas on care and maintenance that they can bring on once Silver is back up in the low $20s, and that mine is built and produced briefly in the last bear market with the prior team.
So again, that is 2 prior producing mines, one that can come on later this year or the beginning of next, and the other that could be online in late 2021 or early 2022.
Personally I like owning Aurcana for the production exposure where they can monetize their metal in the ground into revenues and they are priced lower than many exploration companies that many never even get a mine built. Also, they can essentially work most of the year in the US.
http://www.aurcana.com/_resources/presentations/Corporate_Presentation.pdf
Ex:
Thanks for the library of info in the “rant” above. Extremely useful. Timing is good to move Tudor as I am up and can get a discount on those others. I liked that German project with Excellon as those historic grades are pretty impressive. With a school of mines in the neighborhood, it should be a good jurisdiction with some great technical support. I will play it by ear and see how Tudor goes this next few days. Thanks for laying out the options.
I posted this rant over at ceo.ca and figured I’d post it here in response to another contributor bringing up their high AISC – which is a challenge they need to overcome moving forward.
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Yes, their AISC at Platosa is one of the highest of the Silver Producers along with Endeavour Silver, but they did have a 2019 plan to get it down closer to $18-$19 from $25-$26, but they ran into a mining sequence challenge last year which carried over into early 2020. To add insult to injury, the Covid-19 shutdown from April-June will still impact almost all of Q2 with minimal production. It is unclear whether the market is already pricing in little to no production in Q2 or if they’ll get punished further when that operation report hits in July/August. Their costs have been the thorn in their side for a few years, but they used to have costs in the mid $40’s and did bring them down as they dewatered their mine in 2017 and finally got to dry mining conditions.
However, focusing only at Platosa’s prior production metrics excludes their ability to keep lowering costs (which is still quite possible), and Platosa is only 1 of their 4 assets and value drivers, yet the only one they are being valued on. Really they aren’t getting credit for their other assets at this time, or even the exploration work they are doing to extend Platosa and find more high-grade deposits like it along that same trend. Investors are missing the optionality that $EXN will have have as Silver prices rise back into the low $20s over the next year, which will take them from underwater to profitability and have massive effect on their margins relative to other companies on a percentage basis.
Most analysts are discounting down or ignoring EXN’s toll milling agreement with their neighbor Hecla at their Evolución Project in Mexico along with that property’s exploration potential (which could be quite significant), or their 1 Million ounces of Gold defined from the prior economic study at the Kilgore Gold development project (from their recent #acquisition of $OOO Otis Gold), or their district scale Silver City exploration asset in Germany.
Excellon is still being punished for the sins of the past, and for being a higher cost Silver producer (which is fair, but short-sighted as they are also a developer and explorer and have grown through acquisitions). Again this tunnel-vision on AISC at Platosa ignores all the other assets, and throws in the towel on their ability to turn Platosa’s costs around. I love buying an asset where there are some real haters, with a rigid believe that things will never change.
Lastly, these valuations, cost metrics, and sentiment are largely driven by current Silver prices, but ignores the backdrop where Silver prices are not going to stay at $17 but are more likely going up into the low $20’s.
A good strategy may be to wait for the disappointing but expected lost 2nd quarter operations news, and then to go bottom-fishing into any share weakness in July/August. For me, I’m comfortable riding it out because I captured most of the gains from early 2016 into Summer of 2016 and the next move in 2017 and banked those profits reducing down the position size and have had a few good swing trades in 2018 and 2019, so my cost basis is nil. However I’m watching for any further weakness later this summer to add to the position, and buy it when most consider it a lost dog and continue to value it incorrectly missing the other 3 assets they’ve acquired or the coming breakout in the Silver pricing.
CRESCAT TURNS ACTIVIST ON GOLD
Crescat Capital – June 17, 2020
“The chart below is a great illustration of how insanely disconnected equity prices are from their underlying fundamentals. S&P 500 profit margin estimates are plunging! “Buy the dip” investors are not paying attention and have simply been too eager to call the bottom.”
1) Record Overvalued US Stock Market
2) New Precious Metals Bull Market
3) China Currency Bubble
“Markets driven by euphoria never end well. The US stock market today is in la-la land. It is discounting a new expansion phase of the economy at the same time as a major recession has only just begun. Since the March lows, investors have turned overwhelmingly bullish. They are trusting that central banks’ liquidity will miraculously create economic growth rather than just temporarily ease the pain of declining gross domestic incomes and crushing debt burdens. This delusional thinking is induced by the intense but short acting dopamine response to Fed money printing but completely ignores how business cycles work. Government money printing has failed miserably, repeatedly, throughout history at eliminating recessions and frequently coincides with some of the worst downturns. Today, it is a major symptom of a severe recession if not a depression.”
“Ongoing government fiscal and monetary stimulus does not prevent economic downturns. To the contrary, such past actions are the moral hazard that is chiefly responsible for the imbalances that have built up over time already, the set-up for today’s recessionary environment in the first place.”
> Crescat’s New Precious Metals Activist Campaign with Quinton Hennigh as Advisor
“With record global debt to GDP, historic US equity valuations, and new fiat money printing around the globe, the macro environment is incredibly bullish for precious metals today. We have been hard at work negotiating deals in select gold and silver exploration companies. In our hedge funds, we have been investing in private placements in public companies, often at significant discounts with warrants. We are building activist positions in some the best properties around the globe at highly attractive valuations after a decade long bear market. We are following the economic and technical advice of renowned exploration geologist, Quinton Hennigh, PhD. Based on his extensive experience and many past successes, we have asked Quinton to serve as Crescat’s geologic and technical advisor. He has identified many of the best next generation mining assets on the planet that are still in hands of junior exploration companies today. We are bringing necessary capital to advance these projects in return for significant stakes.”
Ex, Again,you deserve a gold medal for all your input and hard work. DT
Hey Tracy
Spread the love lol.. I’m giving you daily numbers and keep insisting gold is going higher. Talk about putting pants in the line, all the while I have b, bill and some others with a bearish sentiment.
Here it goes again. This weekly coming event in gold will push gold pass $1800.. that’s putting yourself on the line. I believe the weekly and monthly will print a lovely picture for gold and make the bears have to wait a bit longer lol.
Hope your invested heavily in the miners..
Cheers
G.F
Hi Glen, I am on your side, I definitely believe gold is going much higher next week, with the huge pyramid of capital that The Fed and all the other central banks are injecting, for me it is fueling the fear trade. It’s all madness like 1929, gold is the go to safe haven. I think you have nailed it. The bears have lost there way in the woods. LOL! DT!
Tracy thanks for the kind words!
I agree with all your thoughts..
Glenfidish your input is always appreciated sir, and I agree with your bullish outlook.
Glenfidish – did you see this presser?
I’ve got a small tracking position in Compass thanks to your heads up, and ultimately hope they do some great exploration work this year and next year, and get acquired by Hummingbird Resources.
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(CVB) Compass Discovers Second High-Grade Bedrock Gold Zone on the Samagouela Trend
@nasdaq on 22 Jun 2020
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/compass-discovers-second-high-grade-bedrock-gold-zone
Yes thanks for pointing this one out glenfidish and thanks for the presser Ex
Agree on Ex deserving a gold medal. Silver needs to run yet.
Much appreciated David. It will be nice when Silver does decide to run higher…
Thanks for the kind words DT, and it is nice all the work posting is appreciated by a few folks here, it is immensely helpful to have all of us here at the KER sharing info together.
DEG.AX DGMLF : Further High Grade & Expanded Footprint at Hemi
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200622/pdf/44jtjq5261t48l.pdf
Gold & Silver: Up Up and away????
Up, Up, and Away…
All That Glitters When the World Jitters Is Probably Gold
by @TheTechnicalTraders – Chris Vermeulen – 21 Jun 2020
https://ceo.ca/@thetechnicaltraders/all-that-glitters-when-the-world-jitters-is-probably-gold
Gwen Preston of Resource Maven at the Virtual Metals Investor Forum on Thursday
June 18th 2020 – MIF #VIDEO
EX:
do you buy her “dollar-thesis”? I find it is a bit simplistic. Fed printing to infinity aside, if countries begin to enter regional currency crisis (which many will), they will just default on U.S.D debt. This is what has happened in the past, and a lot of dollar bulls don’t seem to factor this in their accounting. Also wondering about her thesis of an ever increasing stock U.S market; especially after a Fed-induced decade bull market. Other Euro/Asian stock indices have trailed behind for a decade now….I don’t see how this trajectory can continue for much longer. Am I out to lunch on this? I also think the U.S will print another 3++ trillion into the election….to paper over a bad economy.
Hey confused. In the medium term I’m Dollar neutral, and this has served me well as the Dollar has been trading in a range of 92-103 for many years now.
Could the greenback go to 110 or 120? – Sure
Could the greenback got down to 80 -90? – Sure
Compared to the General stock markets, Bonds, or Commodities, the US Dollar is rather boring and stable. It stays well bid as the world reserve currency and remaining global belief in the US economy and rule of law (although in the last few months both of those are in questionable shape).
Eventually as a result of the Trillions of Dollars of money printing by the Fed and massive amounts of debt by the US governement, I expect the dollar to slide down into the 80s. The process will take a while though, and until a digitially gold-backed Yuan, or some other basket of currencies, or some kind of UN issued digital crypto, then I don’t see what alternative there is to the Dollar.
Japan has been treading water for decades, the EU is dying a slow death (but will likely hobble along), Great Britain has Brexited, the Swiss have too small a currency to be the world reserve currency, and there aren’t any real replace alternatives.
In the short to medium term, it is very possible, as we’ve seen of late, for Gold and the US Dollar to move up in tandem. If the Dollar pulls back down then it will only help the yellow metal and serve as a tailwind to fuel it higher.
The biggest thing to consider is the US Dollar versus Gold (real money) and when this true measuring stick is used, then Gold is the un-currency of choice.
thanks ex,
Good points…too many moving parts to the whole thing…there are smart people on both sides of this bet.
(MQR) (MRQRF) Monarch Gold Awards Contract to Ausenco for Wasamac
by @newswire on 22 Jun 2020
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/monarch-gold-awards-contract-to-ausenco-for-wasamac
(MKO) (MAKOF) Mako Mining – Drilling continues to extend near surface, high-grade gold mineralization at the Bayacun Zone, highlighted by 40.52 g/t gold over 4.3 meters and 16.90 g/t gold over 4.5 meters and corporate update
@newswire on 22 Jun 2020
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/drilling-continues-to-extend-near-surface-high-grade
(SSV) (SSVFF) Southern Silver Announces Transformative Transaction to Acquire 100% of its Flagship Cerro Las Minitas Silver Project
@newsfile on 22 Jun 2020
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/southern-silver-announces-transformative-transaction
(PGE)(PGEZF) Group Ten Announces Completion of Earn-In Agreement Resulting in 100% Ownership of the Stillwater West PGE-Ni-Cu-Co Project in Montana, USA
@accesswire on 22 Jun 2020
https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/group-ten-announces-completion-of-earn-in-agreement
Thanks for all the info gentlemen. Reading as much as I can during these busy times. Hey Ex I’m sorry my timeframe might be off on the IMCC. Looking my 6-12 month target was more like 3 months at this rate. Nothing like having profits to put in to these gold and silver plays. 😎
Hi Wolfster – Yes, I’ve been watching IMCC since you mentioned it but it just keeps moving higher, and I’ve felt like I missed the move by hesitating. Then again, I guess it could just keep on charging. Yes, rotating profits on solid wins from one sector to another is the way to do it. Thanks for the reminder and good luck in your investments.
A moment to ponder: Pioneer is showing +143.9%. Of course it is a .02 cent stock…in the Pilbara.
James Turk , Has a great interview at KWN……
June 20……
Ex and wolf thanks for the kind words!
Follow Philip Conway and most often them none the returns shall be spectacular.
That’s amazing that they intersected that stretch of what they believe good grades.. I personally ex don’t want to get bought out. I got screwed with northgate minerals Few years back. I’d love to ride this puppy like I rode iamgold from 3.80 to shy of $24 bucks
This is going to be a strong company and is a strong team.
All the best boys!! Matt has been working overtime with purchases in the last few weeks hence why he is away. Can’t blame him.
Thanks for the show Cory! Rick I enjoyed your talk.
Jordans previous week Call of lower Prices for miners and then up was good on timing not so much I’d say In price action. In fact when Jordan was on record here in podcast saying prices will drop further I had already purchased what I believe was a bottom in most miners on June 5th.
Did some silver miners more specifically correct after jorydans views? Yes
The contributors have been good.. however some of us here have been saying for a pretty long time gold is going higher. Nothing has changed but volatility and it’s bucking most in here and out there with the sentiment. The more chatter I hear we will correct the better the launching pad for gold.
My thoughts are the same $1765 will give way to $1780 at which point confirmation will come in and big big money will prop these miners up as a wave jumps on. Of course many of these funds/investors will be the ones who always come late to the party but drive prices to higher levels.
$1780, $1800 and so on and so forth..
I remain consistent with my call once we break $1800..we will not imo break to new all time highs until possibly first quarter 2021 or mid quarter..
Once $1920 is broken first shorter term major targets should be around $2200-$2300
Longer term make no mistake $1920 takes us to $2800-$3000 with 3-4 years.
Best of luck to all