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Gold – Comparing the current correction correction to the correction in the last gold bull market

Cory
August 12, 2020

Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me to share some of his recent research on how the corrections during the last bull market in gold, over a decade ago, compare to the price action in gold over the past 4 days. We do the same for gold stocks broadly early on in the bull market.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.

Discussion
38 Comments
    cfs
    Aug 12, 2020 12:06 PM

    SILEF:

    Silver Elephant Intercepts 1,565 g/t Silver 8.25% Pb, 3.85% Zn (1,825 g/t AgEq) Over 5 meters with PUD 283, while PUD 284 Intercepts 66.7 meters grading 182 g/t AgEq
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    Metals Forum talk in Mr. Temple’s section earlier today.

    CFS
    Aug 12, 2020 12:09 PM
      Aug 12, 2020 12:30 PM

      when I click on the link it says “The content of this video might not be appropriate for all viewers”!!

    Aug 12, 2020 12:28 PM

    Apparently yesterday was the biggest slam of silver in the history of the COMEX .

    Maybe this explains in part the viciousness of the selloff. All I’m hearing that it’s damn near impossible to source physical and yet price plunges.

    From Silver Doctors:

    “Shocking rig job on the COMEX silver market yesterday with 2,000,000,000 ounces of fake silver used to dump the price! CME assists in Silver Slam by raising margins on weak handed Silver Longs! CFTC Regulators NOWHERE TO BE SEEN!”

    https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/red-alert-2-billion-ounces-fake-silver-dumped-in-biggest-silver-slam-in-comex-history/

    Aug 12, 2020 12:39 PM

    I agree Roy that the first 9 days can create low! But won’t happen this time.. we are headed to $1800… 50% correction bank it across the miners.. it will be short to medium term. However it will be sideways to up after.. $2300-$2400 in 2021/2022 conservative price.

    Not the biggest fan of Roy but we are not all perfect.

    Aug 12, 2020 12:23 PM

    Glen,
    You’ve been on target pretty good lately. Good on ya!

    I think the gold price with miners is going down for a couple months here. If you look at treasury yields, and those charts. It’s suggests that yields goes up while gold goes down.

    No big deal. I don’t have any dogs in the hunt. When TLT breaks below the 100, it should get interesting for gold, and a bunch of other stuff.

    We’ll see how it plays out shortly.

      Aug 13, 2020 13:16 AM

      Dang Chartster……”No dog in the hunt.”……I thought you were a gold bug….. 🙂

        Aug 13, 2020 13:17 AM

        Now, I am really concerned …… , No more hairdryer advice….. 🙂

        Aug 13, 2020 13:56 AM

        OOTB,
        Why would I own gold stocks when treasury yields are about to go much higher. When treasury yields take off, gold will drop. Yes, I still have my favorite miners. And if copper breaks above 3 bucks, I’ll be in some gold/silver/copper plays.
        I might have a dog in the hunt with TBT and JDST next week. We’ll see how it plays out.
        I’m trying to do 5% per week. It can come from the general market/ currency pairs or commodities. I’m just fond of swimming with the current (not against it..).

          Aug 13, 2020 13:13 AM

          You’re spreading a myth. Interest rates go up with gold because both discount inflation. Gold soared about 25 fold in the 1970s and interest rates went up the entire time.
          Gold runs into trouble only when interest rates are sufficiently positive in real terms.

            Aug 13, 2020 13:23 AM

            I think treasury yields are going way higher. I think the 10 year yield will be 3.5% within the next 6 months. Gold won’t do good in that environment.
            I’m not saying gold will be held down. I’m saying that it will drop as yields explode higher.
            Just an opinion. Or myth (as you say).
            Hey, treasury yields might not drop at all. And gold could go to the moon right here. If that happens, I’ll adjust.

            Aug 13, 2020 13:39 AM

            You’re not understanding the relationship. Rising interest rates are exactly what is needed to send gold to the moon.
            Gold had two very large moves in the 1970s and both of them happened as interest rates went up significantly. The correction mid decade in which gold fell by 50% happened as rates plunged.
            Of course, it is the real interest rate that matters most and it will be very negative for years to come. That’s great news for gold and especially silver, as usual.

            A picture is worth a trillion words:
            https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart

            Aug 13, 2020 13:52 AM

            Matthew,
            I do understand what happened in the 70s regarding interest rates and the gold price. This time it will be different. Because ‘this time’ it’s not fiat…
            Look at TLT and GLD. Paper gold value and paper money value. The 20 years bonds create the money supply. This time ‘is different’.

            I know I know, mind melt, right?😉

            Aug 13, 2020 13:00 AM

            Fiat has nothing to do with it at all but “this time” it is still fiat and will stay that way.

            “This time is different.” — The most dangerous belief in investing.

          Aug 13, 2020 13:52 AM

          Chartster…….My only comment…….Interest rates are not going up…to 3.5% …The real estate market can not stand it…..In 6 months…..that is insane…..

            Aug 13, 2020 13:59 AM

            OOTB,
            Back in 2000 the ten year yield was close to 3.5% and a 30 year mortgage was 6.5%. No big deal. A mortgage and the prime lending rate should be 7% in a healthy economy. These rates are too low. A higher rate on the 10 years is good for business.

            Aug 13, 2020 13:13 AM

            Chartster…….
            The interest rates will require higher INCOMES, to support more DEBT, caused by an INCREASE in Rates……and there is NO WAY the Future looks anything like before 2000.

            Aug 13, 2020 13:17 AM

            Chartster………I do agree……Rates on SAVINGS are too LOW…..

            Aug 13, 2020 13:20 AM

            Of course you are correct, Jerry.

            Chartster, this isn’t 2000. The 30 year mortgage at 6.5% today would be a huge deal, to put it mildly.

            Aug 13, 2020 13:27 AM

            I guess Chartster did not read…….Banks do not want to lend money on 30 year mortgages, and they NOW want 20% down….and not 5%…..therefore, adding another problem , to old thinking….

            Aug 13, 2020 13:31 AM

            I posted this one today to my friend Russell…..which tells me interest rates are not going up….anytime soon….
            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bankruptcies-and-unpaid-rents-cost-mall-landlords-hundreds-millions-q2

            Aug 13, 2020 13:41 AM

            Chartster……still love all your comments…..I do like the idea of making 5% a week…

            Aug 13, 2020 13:50 AM

            OOTB,
            Lending guidelines have changed. They do want 20% down now. That’s because it’s like the good ole days. The gold standard. (think about it)😉
            That’s why the real economy is about to do a V-shaped recovery.
            Main Street will start kicking butt soon.
            Big tech and big pharma won’t be the drivers in the market. Real producers will drive the markets. It’s changing right in front of you.

            Aug 13, 2020 13:55 AM

            Chartster, no one has 20% to put down and there’s no gold standard in sight. 😉
            Main street is in a wheelchair after govid and the Fed stomped its ass.

            Aug 13, 2020 13:41 PM

            LOL…..Chartster…….better tell the sheeple to save a little more money….

            Aug 13, 2020 13:47 PM

            Let see…..US .$26 Trillion in DEBT…….$1.4 Trillion School loans……
            Credit card defaults, most people are living off CREDIT….and NO EQUITY LIar Loans.
            Fake Central bank, which should not exist…….Fed.is going to buy Apple Bonds….LOL
            The only ones making money…..are the Elite, and those are just a few thousand….
            The debt clock……is running full speed…..there Is ONE MILLION DOLLARS of DEBT
            created every 22 seconds…….
            Pentagon is missing $40 TRILLION….or more, there are no records because of Fasbe 56 accounting rules…..

            Aug 13, 2020 13:59 PM

            You guys do realize that the real estate market is booming better than ever before. Do you realize the real economy (Main Street) trails the real estate market by a few months? That said, we are about to enter an economic boom.
            And poof, just like that, the scamdemic was over.

            Aug 13, 2020 13:17 PM

            People are just dumping in one area and moving to another………eventually, every fake market is discovered…..lol

            Aug 13, 2020 13:21 PM

            Real estate people are always the last to know……Same with Builders….

            Aug 13, 2020 13:24 PM

            Builders speculate………..then go BANKRUPT…..

            Aug 13, 2020 13:41 PM

            When the Fed. issues the the proposed $300 to the unemployed…..to last till after the election….and the Demos want $1.1 Trillion to BAIL OUT the cities….Yes, everything is BOOMING>>… LOL…….V shaped…humm…..

            Aug 13, 2020 13:43 PM

            Humm……today…..another 930,000(+or-) file FIRST TIME unemployment claims…..

    Aug 12, 2020 12:32 PM

    Thanks charts!

    I was in record earlier over a month ago with a low target of $1640-$1680 I believe. I’m not great like ex and Matt at going back and checking. I really hope we don’t go down to that area as my work suggested it would be a target. My thinking is more $1750-1800 more so but may well be multi month like you say..

    All the best to you and everyone else.

    cfs
    Aug 12, 2020 12:32 PM

    golden metals at metals forum

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnOQmkDN9AQ

    cfs
    Aug 12, 2020 12:36 PM

    Makes on wonder how desperate CNN must be to have people on their FAKE network news….

    https://freebeacon.com/2020-election/prominent-colombian-socialist-and-former-guerrilla-endorses-joe-biden/

    Aug 12, 2020 12:03 PM

    Jordan deserves credit for warning about the impending top. But I don’t see a whole lot of bottom

    Aug 13, 2020 13:01 AM

    Got caught with no positio as I’ve been trading it on the bounces….knew this day was coming. Oh well vizsla has been good to me
    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/vizsla-makes-second-discovery-drilling-1245-gt-silver