I like that chart compared to the Milkshake possibility

The 6 years of price action above that dashed blue line (@12:13 above) is going to result in enormous selling if/when price moves below about 83.

On the other hand, the price action of the last two+ years shows that the following blue fork is the more important one…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=M&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44165889939&a=769092646

Agreed Matthew. Even if the Dollar did get stuck in sideways channel between 85 and 105 for years and years, Gold could still do great as they really aren’t nearly as correlated as some market pundits seem to think. I do agree with Raoul that in that kind of environment that Emerging Markets could do quite well, as there would be less uncertainty.

I have a lot of respect for Raoul Pal, and he is a sharp macro investor, but I agree that he wasn’t getting it with the money printing, (needed to buy the bonds in the scenario they were discussing) being inflationary. In Raoul’s defense, I have heard him discuss that topic before, and he usually states, that there won’t be inflation until the velocity of money increases, which is more seen in government stimulus being pumped directly into economy to businesses and citizens, versus Fed increasing their balance sheet but not increasing the velocity of money. I’m sure he would have unpacked that point but Peter cut off mid sentence.

You mean on Voyage Digital. Oh, darn, I thought you still had a nice position and were making out like a bandit. I did pretty good on my recent positions in Argo Blockchain, and Hive, and got the Cypherpunk position in place earlier today and it also ripped higher. I’m just sad to have missed the move in Riot, which I’ve looked at a number of times for over a year now, and I always come away thinking it’s way overpriced, and then it continues to have double-digit up days. I guess there is no rational valuation being used on these crypto miners, so I’m just trading them as highly speculative, over-prices, momo trades, and will scalp gains, and then go back to the sidelines.

Voyager

Nice. Good to hear you’re doing well on the cryptos…..I’ve been so busy I’ve had to put in stop losses so I don’t lose all the gains these high flyers have had.got stopped out of voyageur

That is wise Wolfster, and always a good policy to limit potential risk and lock in gains. Personally, I don’t like using stop losses, because there have been too many experiences where stocks or ETFs go down and trigger them only for them to turn right back around and surge higher.

For example look at what just happened with cryptos or Silver over the last few weeks… they plunged then surged. I like to watch the technical momentum and cut losses manually if a trade is truly going against the bet placed. I’m usually quick to limit a loss on a drill play exploration stock, if the story isn’t holding up, or if the company makes decisions that violate previously stated plans, or if they change strategies mid -strwam in a confounding way. However, if it is a trade with a lot of conviction, then I’ll typically average down, to bring the cist basis down, and allow the time for the investing thesis to play out. There are, of course, losing trades that had conviction, that simply must be taken as tax loss candidates.

Regardless, with these crypto miners, I see them as leverage to the underlying cryptos, just like traditional mining stocks offer leverage to the moves in the underlying metals. With cryptos being so volatile, that just makes crypto-miners even more uber-volatile, so hence, simply a swing trade. The valuations are absolutely nuts and unhinged, so I’ll keep an eye on the exit doors. They are not value plays for investing, but are fantastic vehicles for trending swing trades.

mid -strwam = mid-stream

cist = cost

Bitcoin at $46,730. (this is getting crazy!)

Ethereum at $1,734

https://www.coinbase.com/price

46,100 happens to be the top resistance on the monthly chart using the Pivot tool. On the weekly, that number is over 54,000. The monthly RSI(14) is now over 89. Gold hasn’t achieved such a reading since it hit 92 forty-one years ago.
Whatever level it reaches, it’s not going to end well.

Agreed. This bubble will pop, and it will be ugly for those buying the top, but then new bubbles will form. It’s possible the intermediate top in Bitcoin will be this week at the rate things are rising, but I’ve had a few good trades in the cryptos last year and hopefully will sell these crypto miners at a profit to greater fools.

Last year I was just using GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (which is a just a holding company of bitcoins), but I figured with this recent insane rebound, that I’d try the crypto miners, for even more risk/reward. If we see a rip-the-face-off rally in them tomorrow, then I may sell into the frenzy.

I’m guessing it will reach 57,000 but such bubbles don’t end in intermediate term tops. Once it pops, it won’t make a new high for years, if ever.

I said intermediate term top, because it’s possible Bitcoin has a terrible correction, but then has one more leg higher where heads up to 6 digit prices. Many banks and pundits are looking at $150K-$300K as the big top. Now whether that may take years is a good question. When Bitcoin topped in 2017, it did take a few years until it broke above those highs last year in 2020. However, it only took a few months to correct from $40K, down to $30k and now its back up new all time highs at $47,818 currently. The volatility is pretty crazy.

I agree with you that this move could see something in the $50’s marking a top, and maybe it will be the final top, or just the next in a series of pop-n-drops, but I don’t plan on overstaying the welcome regardless.

That’s exactly what happened to me with voyager and why I don’t like using them either especially with something as volatile as these cryptos…..unfortunately I was less comfortable with the idea of a big sell off and not making anything. Worst part was I was close to my trigger point of selling 1/2 so I own free shares that change my mentality completely

Well, so far today, I just trimmed half the Argo Blockchain to lock in gains, but left the Hive and Cypherpunk untouched to keep running. I don’t care about squeezing every single dollar out of inflated momo moves like this, and just want to scalp some easy gains during the volatility. I’ll scale out of these positions with some cheddar, and place the crypto miner gains into the dry powder reserves.

Dang, Hut 8 Mining just keep blazing higher up another 26% today. I just couldn’t chase it yesterday, or in the days and months before, but it is simply amazing that it just keep rising higher and higher on double digits most days. It will end badly, but these kind of momentum blasts higher lack any fundamental reality, and it is truly the madness of crowds. It is something to behold though.

Sounds good. Yes that area is getting a lot of attention lately. I’ll take a look at Sky Gold. Thanks for the heads up David.

DT – Great points on the base metals at Freefall Airlines. South32 is definitely one of the big boys in base metals, and an excellent partner to have spending some dough.