Is it all on the Fed to stop the downtrend in gold?
Craig Hemke, Founder of TF Metals Report joins me to outline all the factors contributing to the continued weakness in gold. As yields continue to rise and rotation of money favors the base metals we look to the Fed that has been sitting on the sidelines for this entire correction. What will it take to move the Fed into action?
Investment Strategy:
Try to elect and appoint officials at the Federal Level that will Regulate Markets and criminally prosecute offenders. So far it has not worked as there is an extreme shortage of honest people.
😉
You guys have not figured out the plan….. GOVT. is not your friend at this point.
You were taken over a long time ago…..
Forget the above statement….., it only causes conflict…..where none is needed….
You are getting very mild these days for a rabble rouser…it may work…for a few minutes. 🙂
lol… 🙂 thanks…
Considering the current state of things, Jerry’s more a rubble rouser these days.
“rubble”…… more stones , for stoning…. LOL
From Out Of The Box…. to Rubble Rouser Jerry. I like it!
Which ever description is appropriate…I carry garlic for both :0
That is right Jerry. You are better off keeping your mouth shut instead of insulting people.
GOLD ! Is the Central of Power of MONEY ! GOLD is a BUY !
A BUY ! Slowly Real and put away in the next 1/2 Year the last dip !!!!!
Thank you Doc and Glen. Hopefully this is a complete washout today for gold sector. For regular markets it’s probably just the beginning.
Hi Ryan
Thank you! I don’t post to often but when I do it’s substance…
We are very very close as I promised you all.. stay tuned I will update very soon. Just clearing my mind.. it’s been a good few days away from the screen.
Glen
People are focussed on the rising ten year and are talking about a tripple.
How about the Japanese ten year going to .17 from a negative not to long ago. In % points this is a much larger move than the U S ten year. To say that Japan doesn’t matter is fallacy at best.
Interest rates.
I bring this up because you ask the average person who is the largest holder of U S debt and they will tell you China, where as in reality it is Japan.
How many times have we’ve seen the revolving door from the Brookings Institute to Japan wide open with non other than Ben Bernanke. Keep an eye on Japan.
Foreign holder.
JK: Source for J-10 data?
(https://ibb.co/NyxWt8s)
I use trading economics.
Which brings up another interesting point about the differences in quotes from one web site to another.
For instance, trading economics Gold quote and Finviz for example.
Another interesting one was that trading economics no longer quotes the Baltic Dry Index.
Finviz is great for a quick look for trading asset classes and currency.
Thanks to both for links!
Bargain Buying: Added to Great Bear and Novo, plus a few New Age Metals. Picked up Telson yesterday and added a few today. Looking at more that are having a bad day.
Those are all solid pick-ups David. I have Great Bear, Novo, and New Age Metals, and have looked at Telson a few times and still have it on a close watch list, but thanks for bringing that one back on the radar to follow more closely. I decided to stick with the quality names, and responded down below with my sells and adds today. Cheers!
I have given much thought as to what makes the Price of Gold do as it does, and I have come to the conclusion that you should not try make a binary connection as apposed to something more akin to a multi faceted one. There are just to many moving parts.
For instance you can look back to the past and make the correlation as to what happened then, but that is no guarantee that it will happen precisely as it did in the past, but then you must apply a percentage as to the possibilities of that happening.
I don’t speculate in Gold but rather use it as insurance for a worst case scenario. With that being said, I have watched the price of Gold move for over twenty years and I still cannot make a conclusive argument as to the one factor that drives the price.
Top shelf ‘price only’ TA guy Michael Boutros is worth a visit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmzl1IGwXTg
BDC:
Thanks for the link.
Good comment JohnK. Yes, while there are factors like negative real rates that have the most impact on Gold, there are many factors that go into the pricing (ie… the movements in the Bond markets as fellow safe havens, the US Dollar strength or weakness, other currencies like the Yen, geo-political flare ups & Black Swan events, Fedbabble, and to a lessor degree outsized risk-on or risk-off moves in the general equities).
It’s a veritable economic stew of different factors that affect the monetary metals.
What started to look like a bloodbath this morning feels and looks to me that we will see a turnaround in some stocks by day’s end and an up day on Monday. DT
Many miners and ETFs have two deep black candles now. On Monday their “Three Black Crows” early may morph into “Two Black Crows and a Cattail”. I have seen this in the past at bottoms.
DT:
When I opened up this morning, I expected worse damage. I have the same feeling that this will work its way down, keep us in the channel and open door for a good Monday. But, they can’t be trusted, so I am taking as much of my small profits I can and moving it to stocks like Novo and Great Bear that are more on the prospective side.
David: oddly enough I would have been more worried in the past to see such a huge decline in Gold, but the economy is in such terrible shape that my big worry is when the conventional markets roll-over and everything gets sold in a panic for the exit. DT
Yes, the economy is in terrible shape, and the general markets are getting way ahead of themselves with regards to all the positivity on re-opening trades, and reflation, and expectations for a booming economy later in the year. We have not seen the other shoe drop yet regarding the decimation of the small business sector from a year of lockdowns, business closings, burning 50+ US downtown cities over the summer for months, millions of people out of work, people chewing through savings, and the changes in behavior. Many businesses are not going back to flying around the country for conferences or in person meetings, and will be permanently doing video conferences. Many businesses will be downsizing their commercial office spaces, as more employees will continue to work from home for now on. People are still not able to travel globally, which is killing the hospitality sector of hotels, rental cars, airlines, tourism, and related industries. The impact of the policies coming out of the pandemic has not been fully realized, and those on Wall St and Bay St have a major disconnect going on with how they are viewing the economic recovery, and the reality of the economics for most average citizens and business owners on Main St. If they do finally get a clue, then there may indeed be a serious roll-over in the conventional markets and a “sell-everything” panic. That is definitely something to be concerned about after the markets have been a runaway train now for 12 years. Eventually gravity will set in and blow all the froth out the markets, and I’m less convinced the Fed will be able to backstop it during the next major market dislocation.
You guys worry too much….. lol….. think of zero… thinking of zero to worry about, and zero is where we are headed…..the dollar will be worth zero…..
Now gold , will be worth zeros……with a couple of zero behind, and a couple of ones in front….which make this conversation worth zero…. 🙂
David, did say…..I could only be nice for few minutes.. LOL.
Haha! Well, thanks for nothing. Nothing is also zero 😉
Not worrying so much as pointing out the economy is not nearly so rosy as many of the re-opening stocks fever in the markets would lead on, and the reflation trade could get stalled when the rest of the damage from the last year of business interruption and pain for many everyday citizens on Main St finally gets registered by Wall St. It’s more of an observation than a worry, and we haven’t seen the other shoe drop yet.
BTW if the dollar is headed to zero, then that would be something to worry about, but the central banksters will step in way before that happens with their “Great Reset.”
Restart…….starts at zero…. zero hour….. 🙂
People better get ready…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG-KNy1MRTc
🙂
Agreed DT. I was actually prepared for a bloodbath (and had been waiting for one all week long), but despite the continued selling pressure in the metals, and gold moving to a new lower low, the miners only had a mere flesh-wound. 🙂
After 7 months of a corrective move in the PMs the selling is looking mostly exhausted here. I was ready for significant double digit drops today, and many stocks were only down 3-8%, so I went shopping adding to a number of holdings, but didn’t get as good sale prices as anticipated.
Overall my account ended down 2.67% today, so overall it was a “meh”, which is much better than holy $hite!
Great comments today from Craig Hemke, and he is spot on about the rising interest rates, and flat inflation readings, making real rates less negative, and continuing to pressure Gold. The move down in Gold, since last August, has been all about the moves higher in real inflation adjusted interest rates. As we’ve discussed, and Craig mentioned, there will be a point, if rates keep moving higher, that it really pressures the markets and it forces the FED’s hand to intervene and control the longer term yields through buying up bonds to lower the yields.
One almost gets the feeling that they are constantly jockeying factors that determine market direction for the sole purpose of keeping everything balanced. If so, it is hard to believe it will work with massive crisis in every direction …but then I don’t have a big computer and rich friends that own a funding source.
I picked up a few shares of Orvana Minerals today as it appears it has multiple properties in Spain, Bolivia and Argentina. I guess Spain is OK…but they are already a producer, have just over a 100,000 or so outstanding shares and seem cheap at .24…maybe. I need to look into it further but thought if they are cheap, I have a few. Anybody follow this one. The one thing I need to check that wasn’t obvious was who owns there shares. Anyway…first impression was that they are producing. Some support on ceo.ca. Maybe I am the last who has heard of them.
“their”
David – Interesting pick with adding Orvana Minerals. I’ve considered them in the past but I decided to stick with the names I know better in the space for today’s trading, which was some of the most I’ve done in a few months.
I had already spent the last 2 weeks trimming back stocks from multiple sectors (Gold, Silver, Copper, Uranium, PGMs, Cryptos) to raise funds, so at least I was prepared with some dry powder. Today I also sold my 3 hedges I’d held since mid-week for a profit (JDST), (VXX), and (RWM), which raised quite a bit more dry powder.
On the buying side I added back my positions in Endeavour Silver, Golden Minerals, Orocobre Ltd, and Metalla Royalties; and added to my existing positions in Argonaut Gold, Jaguar Mining, Nomad Royalties, Sandstorm Gold, Sierra Metals, Santacruz Silver, Fosterville South, Bonterra Resources, Fury Gold, Platinum Group Metals, and NexGen. I also added 2 new pot stocks; Delta 9 Cannabis and Fiore Cannabis. At the end of the day I made the decision to move over some funds into my trading account from deep savings, to have some more funds to deploy next week. Overall the busiest day in the markets I can remember for this year.
Ex: you have had a busy week. Looks like you are positioned for March being a good month. My current goal is to make enough profits to cover last years taxes…I need March to be positive. Market Makers should be required to make March profitable for taxes.
Yes sir. In my eyes, the larger bull market is still very much intact, although, I’m not a fan of Gold having broken the November lows for the chart damage it causes, and would have preferred to see an extension of the rally off the lows from last week in a double-bottom pattern instead, but that didn’t play out.
At this point, after 7 months of selling in Gold and in many gold stocks, then the selling is starting to get exhausted at this point, and I’m fine accumulating any weakness in the mining shares. The yellow metal made it up to $2089 last summer, and investors loved it there, so then with Gold getting back down into the $1720s and $1730’s today, folks should love it even more, as it is a far better value at this point.
It’s the same thing with PM stocks, if people liked them so much at higher price levels, then they should love them at these lower price levels. For example, I sold Metalla Royalties (MTA) at $12.67 on Jan 4th, and so buying it back today at $8.71 was a no-brainer. They have the exact same amount of royalties they did 2 months ago, but they were getting over-extended at the beginning of the year, and now are much more attractive. Same thing with Sandstorm. People loved it at $10.50, so they should love it even more at $6, as it still has the same 200+ royalties and streams in it’s portfolio, but it is 43% less expensive here than it was there.
With regards to some of the other positions I’ve been adding, I’m just adding back a little to some of the PGM, Uranium, and Lithium stocks I’d previously trimmed, now that they are also pulling back. There are actually a few more Lithium and Uranium stocks I’d like to see pull back even more before adding to them again.
As for the Cannabis stocks, I’ve mostly been swing-trading around the (MJ) ETF, but will be adding a small basket of stocks, picked up 2 of the smaller market cap speculations today, because they’ve pulled back nicely from prior runs.
As for paying last year’s taxes, I set aside a chunk of money from the home sale to address that, and don’t like being pressured to sell current trades to pay for the thrills of yester-year, and so I set those funds aside at the end of each year during tax loss selling season and move them over to savings ear-marked for government theft.
Hi Ex, I have been accumulating Leading Edge Minerals, for a while now and I bought more today. When I think of what they have, the market is not seeing it, not yet that is! DT
Minerals should be Materials, actually my portfolio didn’t get the hit I thought it would, nice! DT
LEM is a good choice DT. I’m still watching it with keen interest, not just for their Rare Earths deposit Norra Karr, but also for the Graphite production potential. Both of those smaller niche sectors have really been on a tear lately.
I’ve concentrated my focus in Rare Earths over the last 2 weeks on accumulating (UCU) Ucore Rare Metals , because aside from their REE deposit, they have unique downstream processing and metals separation abilities of many minerals. I believe longer term it’s a big winner in the strategic metals space.
>> real rates less negative<<
I disagree with real rates being less negative based on the 10-year treasury yield while most other treasuries of shorter maturity are zero bound. The 10-year treasury yield is a proxy for 30-year mortgage rates only because the typical life of a mortgage is about 7.5 years or so before mortgagees sell their house and repay their loan. With gold ETFs being the driver of current gold investment demand (i.e. short-term traders), why should the gold price and real interest rates be calculated using the 10-year treasury yield? In my opinion, shorter term treasuries of 2 years or less should be the basis of measuring REAL yields and their influence on the price of gold.
In any case, whether one agrees with me or not, please remember that the TIME value of U.S. currency is ZERO while we remain at the zero bound on short-term treasuries and deposit rates etc. That is why true price discovery of an asset class is so difficult.
On a personal note, I was so enraged by the Fed Chairman's blatant lies during his testimony to Congress on Wednesday, that I stepped up my gold purchases to $10K this past week.
Real rates are calculated by the 10 year treasury yields minus inflation.
If the CPI numbers were flat at around 1.4% for the period, and the 10 year yields went from an all time low of 0.318% in late July, to 1.5% the end of this last week, then real rates when from negative (-1.08) to flat +0.1%. So there is nothing to disagree with, rates became less negative.
Ive gotta say, gold has disappointed me this year. Yes we all anticipated a pull-back but this has exceeded what many of us anticipated or wanted a month or two back. Whilst the selling looks exhausted, Fridays new plunge could allow for fresh selling next week that could take gold below $1700. The technical damage inflicted is going to take time to heal. In other words, a new all-time high seems a way off at this stage. More so if we get a good dollar bounce along with the strength seen in yields.
Agreed Ozibatla. We all knew Gold and the gold stocks were getting frothy last summer, and were due for a correction, but this one has lasted longer, and gone lower than most expected at that point last year. Normally in bull markets, corrections are more shallow and shorter than most expect, but not this one. Still, after years of getting bludgeoned in the last PM bear market, most longer term investors are used to this kind of torture, and most are holding or adding into the weakness. Even if we saw a bounce in the Dollar, Gold could still move higher in tandem with it, like it has many times, and longer term the Dollar is likely going to head even lower, as inflation rises.
Im sceptical of the supposed inflation rise now as I with many others anticipated inflation to take affect many times in the last 10 years due to all the money creation we have seen in that time.
There was a big difference in where the money landed on the initial QE coming out of the Great Financial crisis of 08′-09′, where it landed on the balance sheets of financial and insurance institutions, and on the Fed’s balance sheet, and so it didn’t increase the velocity of money; versus where all this massive stimulus money is going directly to businesses and individuals, which is increasing the velocity of money, and will raise inflation.
Yes this fact is not lost on me. Its just that ultimately assets that are directly affected by inflation rely on substantiated figures and confirmation by central banks. Inflation by measure is around and even rampant throughout various sectors in our every day lives. But without official figures validating such claims we continue to be at the mercy of the powers that be. Essentially, whilst understanding and acknowledging the fundamentals that fuel inflation, markets still hinge on what the governments and central banks say or dont say regarding the matter.
Yes, agreed Ozibatla. Most investors and the algos are keyed off the official government CPI numbers for inflation, not matter how flawed they are at picking up the big picture inflation we are already experiencing, and it’s been this way for years. However, with the stimulus helicopter money going directly to businesses and people, with rages being hiked to $15 an hour, and with the dollar being weak and commodities surging, then we’ll likely even see inflation rising soon in the government numbers. They do a good job of disguising true inflation, but this is getting too big to hide.
Ozi,
Don’t be so hard on yourself.I’ve been here all the way and mentioned this would happen. Ask Jerry. Don’t worry all will be good within my exact dates.
Glen
Ditto…..Glen……You did, ….I said , you were spot on…..
I was wondering when you would again comment…..
Keep up the good work…..
Hey Jerry thanks 🙏
I’m here just needed a mind rest also had to deal with some family issues but all is good. We are very close brother and I will be the first to let you know when I think we have turned. 😃
But all the physical you can if possible and silver at these coming prices!
Thanks Glen…..
>>for fresh selling next week that could take gold below $1700<<
To the market I say "bring it on". Get it over with quick. Drop it to $1,575. I've been made immune to the mental pain after the rout in precious metals starting in 2011 where I carried losses for 8+ years rather than admit defeat. This time I'm much smarter but alas not brilliant.
Have you seen the bargains in 1 ounce gold eagle coins? Only $185 over the spot price. LOL
Im interested to hear from the many on this site as to what they think of golds decline; specifically where and when it will end. I recall many were thinking of $1850 as an area to hold, then $1820, $1800, $1765. Now all of these have given way, what are the implication of PMs moving forward in the mid-term?
Initially wanted to see the 233 day EMA hold (and that is a moving target, but it was in the low $1806-$1803 area when I made those comments). Then I wanted to see the recent higher low of $1784 hold, but it gave way last week. The last line in the sand I wanted to see hold, for a more bullish case, was the November low at $1767, and last week it did bounce off that level, and had the potential of being a strong W-shaped double bottom, which would have been far more bullish in the medium term, but it clearly has broken down now.
Matthew gave some good targets out of $1720-$1737 zone as first support (which is where things are at today), and then $1690 below that. Glenfidish gave out target of $1671-$1685 a few weeks back. Those are some areas worth considering at this point.
With regards to technical action, it isn’t good to put in a new lower low, but the miners have mostly shrugged off this recent move lower. There really wasn’t a bloodbath in the miners this week, and they actually rallied on Monday and Wednesday, and just tapered down a bit the last 2 days. Things are already pretty oversold at this point, but we could see a continued lower for longer slow dull ache in the sector for a while.
I’m not nearly as concerned about the price movements in the metals, as I am the price action in the miners, which is where many have their money invested. The gold miners have been mostly correcting since last August’s highs, and the selling is getting exhausted. The Silver miners have mostly traded sideways, with some companies continuing to even rally, and Silver has held up so much better than Gold, due to it’s industrial component. I’ll be looking for more weakness to accumulate quality for bargain basement prices, but this hasn’t been nearly as scary as the dramatic waterfall declines of last March, and my portfolio was only down 2.67% today, so no big deal really.
Cheers for the thoughts Excelsior.
10-4 good buddy.
I would encourage everyone on this site to be very cautious here—-there is no hurry to catch falling knives yet. The first 6 months of this month will be nothing to write about home about. The response to the carnage in all likelihood will not be similar to the response of March 2020 where pricing took right off again from where it hit its’ low. A lot of damage has been done to the charts and in all likelihood we’ll spend some time at the ultimate lows this time consolidating for a significant move up. The candy store door is finally starting to open and in the days ahead I’ll be adding and taking new positions in some great stocks that have been pummeled.
Cheers Doc. In your mind what are the ultimate lows?
Oz, here’s the problem—-you have rates moving up and they probably have farther to go. You put that with a strengthening dollar and a falling conventional market and you have a general sell off of everything. Copper and the CRB are also in the process of reversing. The fact I have been negative on gold for weeks is that we peaked out in August of last year and if you look at the monthly chart we started to form a beautiful declining bullish wedge and are now approaching the bottom of the declining wedge—however, we’re starting a new month of March and the lower line of the wedge is even lower in pricing. We could move down to the $1670-$1675 area before we see any stabilization. That’s why I’ve been talking about sometime in March as being an interim low. Whether that’s the ultimate low it’s difficult to say at present since we need to see the MACD considerably lower in order to get another move higher. April could be another month that could be as difficult as March—-That”s why I’ve been negative for the first 6 months of this year. Watch the CRB which has also reversed and will for awhile. Everything is at risk now. However, I do not believe we’ll see the low that gold hit in March 2020. I hope this helps.
Again, cheers Doc. Yes your thoughts help. Good insight.
Doc – Thanks for sharing your market outlook and targets for gold pricing.
If we have a lower for longer scenario until March, as you outlined, then there should be plenty of time for investors to pick their spots on their dream portfolio of mining stocks.
Doc – I just reread your comment and noticed you mentioned:
“April could be another month that could be as difficult as March—-That”s why I’ve been negative for the first 6 months of this year.”
That sounds like lower for a lot longer… and would be a bit of a bummer after this long of a correction. Do you really think things will drag on that long?
Regardless, congratulations on keeping so much cash to the side, as you’ll make out a like a bandit buying over the next 2 months. I did better than in the past on staying disciplined in storing trading profits for a rainy day, and even had a few good blips in some of my hedge positions this week to raise more funds, but still couldn’t help buying more as things have slid in mid to late February. Earlier funds were moved over from my deep savings into my trading account so I can further bottom-fish, but it would have been better to have lightened the load even more in earlier January when I did some trimming, and even during the last 2 weeks, as many stocks in the portfolio were still up handsomely. Oh well, I’ll add more with what I have left, but is sure isn’t as much cash reserves as you have with 55% still available. I’m more like 6% still available, unless I liquidate other sectors to rotate them into PM stocks. That has crossed my mind, but right now I like the diversification across different sectors in these crazy markets.
The first 6 months of this year.
Good comment regarding caution, Doc.
Not only PM stocks, but general markets too.
Doc is always forecasting for a lower bottom.
If the CRB is also correcting in this environment, you can bet silver will too. Awhile back I mentioned we could see silver move down to the area of $23.00—in this environment it is a distinct possibility. That would be a healthy correction.
Remember when they said, after the March bottom, buy right and sit tight? Where are these pundits now?
Still sitting on their thumbs…… LOL… Think of this as a starting point……lol…
Nothing goes straight up, and nothing goes straight down, except the metal by manipulation and a JPM and a helping hand at the CFTC, CME, SEC…. and the local chapter of the FAKE FED, which would have you believe everything is just fine……
Good comment OOTB regarding the “Think of this as a starting point…”. while most PM investors were in years ago at much lower levels, there are still plenty of people that missed the boat last March during the pandemic selloff to accumulate into weakness, and it rebounded so quickly, many were left out or chasing higher. Now, anybody that missed getting into many of their favorite stocks at good levels has plenty of opportunity to average into positions. Likewise, anyone that trimmed at higher levels, has plenty of opportunity to add back or pile on to core positions. Like Doc mentioned, there is plenty of time as things drift sideways to down, to add as different opportunities present themselves in the market. In a year or so, investors are going to look back at this as the 2nd best buying opportunity of the last few years, with the best being last year during the pandemic flash crash.
:)…. everything is just fine….
Ooh-oo child, things are gonna get easier… 🙂
Three Little Birds ( Don’t Worry About a Thing ) – Bob Marley
🙂 🙂 Good tunes…….
Agreed, however, as a Christian, I can’t help but feel that Trump is feeling Tiger’s pain. Then again, Fortunato & I salute Trump for all the injustice he & General Flynn, etc, have endured for the past 4 years
Gold update!
I’m going to make this one as short and to the point.
Ex thanks for the reference above regarding price!
I’ve said this before we would break the previous November low not because I’m a bear that would be silly, but because my current lenses on my charts seems to be running very in tune with docs. Now I don’t know how and why things happens with direction of charts that is so similar to cycles and patterns. I learned a great deal from Matthew 2-3 years ago in regards to patterns and more so fractal patterns.. Why do I say this? Because the moment I began to study it more that was the moment I truly elevated my game.
The right shoulder that me and ex went back and forth on was a pattern that I aborted right to the moment it broke my pattern. I still remember the day when I said this is the line in the sand and reversed my call and looked at my other pattern and noticed the original pattern was the one. The original conversation with Jerry in regards to depth of drop from the all time high. Maybe I learned that at that moment I needed to believe more in my calls and not question myself.
It’s correct we are in a 7 month correction of gold. I mentioned we would get a smash although almost very close to the days I mentioned it. That this week completed would se the smash and Friday reverse green. Few days later before this week started I said the low could come even first or second week of March but we are close.
So this is what I think and the current pattern is still following it. My charts tell me this
The new numbers are almost identical as the ones ex stated above that I posted before. Slight adjustment.
When we reversed just few days ago on that call I said $1816 almost to a tee I think few bucks off I was happy for the simple reason the pattern is holding.
First before k give the targets this is why I believe the low will possibly come in this week or next but I think it’s the final low in gold and I will definitely share it live and say it when I think it hits.
1. Matthew is seeing divergence no doubt and his tone is one of don’t bet against it when he is telling you there’s not much left to suck from the bottom.
2. Doc changed his tune from long spring or middle to $1670-$1675 well hummm sounds like my target lol.. and if that’s yours sir it getting there fairly quickly and it won’t take your timeline just saying i could be wrong
3. Ex keeps saying how undervalued the miners are and how he knows as well that time is on are side
4. The mood is now bearish with fear and sentiment is almost getting there..
One more mini bounce or call it “ sucker” bounce and I believe that final blow and red candle will be the final low in gold. I’m not superhuman but we are super close jerry and I’d like to see it first week of March but could easily happen second week enough room for March to give us that green strong powerful candle and embark us all on the biggest ride up guaranteed at least 3-4 months of up action!
Iamgold $3.77 and falling
Scorpio falling
Many deals guys get ready as I said one more up fake and big down and get in.
Silver has a date with $24 before higher and possibly $23
Matt if $23 comes get ready to load up impact
Glen
Thanks Glen for sharing your insights and outlook on the metals, and the potential support levels you see as reasonable.
It sounds like you expect things to bottom for Gold much sooner than Doc does, which is encouraging, after such a lengthier duration correction in the midst of the bull market.
Great Outline, GLEN.
Thanks for the Hard Work……
Well, I for one certainly didn’t see us having a drop to much past 1785. It doesn’t surprise me that we did, but I can definitely roll with it. Although, heading down to <1700, like the Glenster is calling for, seems low, but I 've previously shared kudos to him on his past calls, and always appreciate the updates.
The move hasn't changed my approach by much at all.
I think many of us are expecting to benefit from having time to pick up some opportunities.
I think the latest question is for how long the 'low' will last.
We are all gaining additional experience by living through the experience and I continue to wish the best to everyone on their investments.
I almost forgot to mention, I was thinking out loud today at some comments from the group here. The fact is we are getting extremely super oversold soon and the divergence as Matt said and the length of time ex pointed out combined with most technicians and Gary’s insurance the turn better be soon, and finally my date of this low is going to produce what I believe to be the pressure cooker style of explosion of the lid coming out of that bottom. That’s hey I think this is absolutely the time to but this week as we head to those targets because it will turn and turn with what Matt for sure and myself and others I would think is with extremely high volume.. I think it will be monstrous and will launch the next rise in commodities and with a statement as we know!
Glen
Almost forgot.. $1670-$1694
If I’m going precise I would personally like to see $1669-$1675 final bottom in gold.. but this is one tuff task to guess the bigger range seems good
Considering gold closed today at $1732.45, then that’s really only another $50-$60, from the current setup, so not the end of the world. While it would be nicer to see strength in the metals over more weakness, at least it will provide one last good window to accumulate positions while the sector is out of favor and the sentiment is low.
+1
HIstorical Events……in 1669……. It is A sign…. 🙂
Mar 11 Mt Etna in Sicily erupts in its largest recorded eruption,
Mar 25 Mount Etna in Sicily erupts, destroying Nicolosi,
Feb 1 French King Louis XIV limits freedom of religion (of gold)….. just kidding…
….. Glen, has been spot on, so, I would not go against his call at this point….. Best, and I do appreciate the info.
Eruption and Corruption ……just changed names…….rhyme and time…..
🙂 . BIGGEST Corruption in our time has taken place in full view…..this time period will go down in History ….
Thanks Jerry same to you ☺️😀
Canuck,
Thx for your well out thoughts. I’m constantly learning myself and this is not a one day step but multiple ones to get here and try and understand this complex world.
I think together is better then anyone one person. Collectively is the most power one can have and never refrain from buying blood bath phase or long double or tripped weekly candle drops. “Most” of the times those are the times to wet our beak.
I appreciate your thoughts and compliments. I will flat out assure you this won’t drag on once we put in the bottom. Depends what you are looking for. I can assure you from these bottom purchases or final low in gold which is very soon, you will double if not triple your investments from those lows in 1-2 months. These are those moments I learned the number one rule, “Patience”. If it doesn’t get there and I missed it, I look at it as an opportunity missed but a lesson learned.
I’ve missed bottoms and tops but I don’t miss losing money!
Your pal
Glen
Thanks Glen.
I’m already about 70% in at this time when it comes to the resource markets. I am pretty well figuring to drop another 10-15% in during the low this time round depending upon how the stocks react here. For the remaining funds, I will likely never drop them in unless there is a super-sized fall out. I can’t say I fully trust the market at this point.
What’s your approach to investing?
Value investors score their biggest gains when they buy an underpriced asset, average down unfailingly and have their analysis proved out.
Thus, there are two essential ingredients for profit in a declining market: you have to have a view on intrinsic value, and you have to HOLD that view STRONGLY enough to be able to hang in and buy even as price declines suggest that you’re wrong.
Oh ya, there’s a third: you have to be right 🙂
-Howard Marks (he grows trees too)