Minimize

Welcome!

Is this rebound in gold an oversold bounce or a true bottom?

Cory
March 11, 2021

Craig Hemke, Founder of TF Metals Report joins me to weigh in on the recent rebound in gold. With so many gold bugs calling it a bottom there is a lot more to consider than simply just the 3 days price action. We discuss key levels to get to and other factors that need to be considered.

Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report.

Discussion
28 Comments
    Mar 11, 2021 11:08 PM

    Craig always makes me feel like he’s on my side. Thanks Cory for having him on!

      Mar 11, 2021 11:37 PM

      +1 – Agreed 4 oz. Craig is spot on with his thoughts regarding the impact of real rates on gold, pricing levels resistance levels and moving averages to watch in the yellow metal, and what inflation or market reactions it may take for central banks to step in and control the longer end of the yield curve.

    Mar 11, 2021 11:40 PM

    Haven’t seen Jim on Kitco in a while. Nice to get his thoughts.

    Will Gold Price Ever See $2,000 Again? Jim Wyckoff on next big moves and direction

    Kitco News – Mar 11, 2021

    0:00​ – Gold’s cycles
    2:40​ – Gold’s key drivers
    4:47​ – The last 2 gold bull cycles
    5:53​ – Gold’s bearish case
    6:55​ – Gold and crude oil
    7:50​ – Inflation
    9:46​ – Bond yields
    10:50​ – Real interest rates
    11:36​ – Short-term gold price action

    https://youtu.be/VzS1Vs2-tUQ

    Mar 11, 2021 11:43 PM

    The Federal Reserve has lost control of the market, most people don’t get it. All The Fed can do now is provide speculators with enough funds to keep the markets levitated but with inflation those funds will be worth less eventually rendering speculation useless and with it will come a huge market correction. DT

    Mar 11, 2021 11:44 PM

    Pro Trader Nick Santiago Who Predicted $1700 Gold Shares His Current Gold Trade

    MiningStockEducation – March 11, 2021

    “Professional Trader Nick Santiago has been predicting $1700/oz gold. In this interview, Nick shares how he is currently trading gold and gold equities. Nicholas Santiago started trading in 1991. In 1997, he became a licensed Series 7 and 63 registered representative. He successfully managed money for a large, affluent private client group. Nick is an expert in Technical Analysis. He is a highly regarded and accomplished technician in the studies of Elliot Wave, Gann Theory, Dow Theory and Cycle Theory.”

    https://youtu.be/IHc_BK-znGI

    Mar 11, 2021 11:05 PM

    Hecla has a good looking up trend since May 2020. It is currently working at the 8 year old $7 ‘ish resistance. I would appreciate any opinions and fundamentals,… but especially some good technical analysis. Thx in advance.

    Mar 12, 2021 12:40 AM

    How bad will the miners be today? Dollar up, 10 yr up, General Markets all time highs…debt/deficit is of no matter, and inflation is mo where in sight…💀

    Mar 12, 2021 12:42 AM

    Pierre Lassonde was mentioning recently that this a time when we will see mergers and acquisitions in the mining industry. I like Group Ten Metals and own their shares. Group Ten’s property sits adjacent to The Sibanye Stillwater mines in sweet grass Montana. Two mines are operated by Sibanye one at Stillwater and the other at East Boulder each with a life span of 30 more years. Sibanye Stillwater is the largest platinum producer and second largest palladium producer in the world, along with rhodium credits. Sibanye has operations in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and South America. They also own 44% of The Rand gold refinery in South Africa. There market cap is $14 billion US. If ever there was a company that would be taken out Sibanye has a huge target on it’s back and sitting right next door is little Group Ten Metals a PGM junior. Sweet Grass could see more than one merger and acquisition. DT

      Mar 12, 2021 12:01 AM

      Yes…and how many US electric car makers or other battery type activities would rather buy and be suppled in the US. Also…Rhodium.

      Mar 12, 2021 12:22 PM

      Hard to argue with your facts. I sold Group Ten earlier in the week mainly because I did not think their recent drill results (in the details, not the summary) were that great, yet everyone including management was hyping the results as extraordinary. So it’s me against the world when the sell order went thru at 33 cents.

      I also believed that rising rates would cause a 10% correction in the stock markets in general and that I could repurchase Group Ten at a lower price. Hah! Famous last words of a regretful trader. As I discovered the day after my sale, rates will not rise much more because the lying fed has quietly restarted their QE twist program as evidenced here:

      https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1369140806066470912

    Mar 12, 2021 12:46 AM

    Back ti the alternating day pattern. Yesterdays positive stocks are todays negative. Worst starting out today Novo, Great Bear, Group Ten, Discovery, Pure Gold, Silver Tiger, Silver Viper, Vizsla…Nothing new in the pattern if alternating days and channeling since August.
    Next week is Fed and we have a positive dollar and higher 10 year. The Fed cannot tolerate either but they also don’t want their fraud exposed. What to do….what to do…

    Mar 12, 2021 12:32 AM

    I’ll take the other side of the debate regarding the precious metals market and opportunities. It’s irrefutable and impossible to deny that the precious metals aren’t being suppressed by the powers to be. With that being said though, that creates an enormous opportunity because down the road at some point all those energies are going to be released from the fraudulent price suppression. How it all plays out is anyone’s guess. However, we are looking at a price explosion at some point in the future could happen at any time. Unfortunately, it’s going to be almost impossible to time just have to have your positions and precious metals and your gold equities locked away and then forget about it. You can worry about trading it although you’re going to make a fortune keeping your fingers off the keyboard and just pretend you don’t own it and have it all locked away. Frees up a lot of time and you’re going to make a lot more money avoiding heavy losses and you can enjoy other activities and projects you want to work on. The above strategy will only work when you have some solid gold mining companies you don’t have to worry about or just having an ETF or fund.

      Mar 12, 2021 12:39 AM

      Agree on the unpredictable which implies intervention. But, if there is, the Regulators are going to do nothing. If there isn’t then there is some very fatal flaws in the paper contract system that are being ignored. Either way, we get stuck with the end result. That is why Matthew, Glen, Ex and all the other contributors whether fundamental or technical or both cannot be ignored and one has to measure all the input and throw the dice or walk away. The problem with walking away is that there is no where to walk to without the same intervention.

        Mar 12, 2021 12:41 AM

        On the bright side, I am losing less than I was an hour ago. Big things ahead…

        Mar 12, 2021 12:52 AM

        When it comes to Gold equities and investing in individual explorer companies that will run into problems down the road or any other gold mining company that is not well-established those must to be actively traded. Other than that though, I’ll maintain my position on just putting everything away and pretending you don’t own it going to make a lot more money in the end and even avoiding being a whipsawed into heavy losses losing money in a great big bull market. I like enjoy the peace of mind of just having everything on cruise control and enjoying other activities and projects.

    Mar 12, 2021 12:01 AM

    Ex:
    I have been cleaning things up a bit during this “stuck in the channel” period. I picked up some Vangold in that they have some similarities to Vizsla in that they have a mill they upgrade and use for relatively near term production. They also have some tailings for near term cash. They bought their property from Endeavor Silver who also owned the mill. Some other historic stuff in the area
    Added to Silver Tiger after their Mar 9 drill results. Interviews with the CEO are on the strong positive side. I also moved some more speculative stocksinto Empress Royalty who has appeared in two consecutive MIFs: first with Gwen Preston and second with Brian Lundin. They are backed financially in Mexico, Australia and UK. Share structure not bad right now but only been listed in Canada and US in last few months. Ophir Gold is seeing movement and could be a result of a PDAC presentation. Built more of a concentration in Discovery, Novo and Group Ten. Novo now my biggest dollar holding.
    Just some info to fill the channel until the next crisis.

      Mar 12, 2021 12:51 AM

      David, Ex has forgotten about the stock market, he is presently in Miami suffering from the delirious effects of real estate speculation. DT

        Mar 12, 2021 12:49 AM

        Did he take a snorkel to be safe on the ocean front properties.

          Mar 12, 2021 12:57 AM

          Ex only goes snorkeling so he can stake out the underwater properties, he knows people will be scrambling for them next. LOL! DT

            Mar 12, 2021 12:21 AM

            When he opens his dive shop he will be able to work the whole coastline from Palm Beach southward to Tampa, Sarasota, and St. Petersburg. DT

            Mar 12, 2021 12:21 PM

            Long time to hold his breath, but he can accomplish a lot in a short time…not sure about a long distance.. One of those space/time issues…with water complications. Someone chart this issue…

    Mar 12, 2021 12:03 AM

    It’s not recommend, although I’m a futures trader and I’ve held long-term positions on gold and other commodities longer term and just rolled over the contracts. Never traded it very seldom as long as I had enough capital in my account the fluctuations didn’t bother me.

    Because timings extremely difficult and if you know the trend is up who cares about the fluctuations and that’s how I managed everything and made a fortune. Even though I was a trader I avoided all the whipsaws because that’s what breaks the piggy bank.

      Mar 12, 2021 12:40 AM

      My biggest mistake was not giving my money to a broker with no common sense 12 years ago, and gone and played golf. A broker would have not been allowed to put any money in any miner but Barrick and put the rest in stocks recommended by the front office. I would have made tons. Either that or do mortgage fireclosures.🥴

        Mar 12, 2021 12:42 AM

        Foreclosure… they need to move the i away from the o on phones.

        Mar 12, 2021 12:53 AM

        That’s unfortunate, we all learn by our mistakes. I’ve had plenty, but limited my participation with individuals and brokers that only have their own self interest in mind. I was down that road at one time and decades ago opened up self-directed broker accounts.

        On the positive side though, I learned decades ago you can’t make money unless you learn how to lose it first. Trial and error and practice brings success after you learn so many times over.

        In fact, some people should just stay out of it completely and just place their money in a long term account managed mutual fund. Statistically speaking and you can verify this probably on the internet 90% of investors lose money eventually. It’s much higher in the precious metals market.

        We live in a world now too that there’s no price discovery everything’s been supported by toxic policies and everything is overvalued it’s difficult to invest right now. I don’t have the words for it because we have monumental bubbles that are about to burst.

    Mar 12, 2021 12:22 PM

    When I was a teenager in the early 1970’s, one of my summer jobs was to clean out the upstairs rooms of a mansion that had an upscale restaurant on the ground floor. In one of the rooms was boxes upon boxes of stock certificates from the 1950’s and 1960’s of Candian resource and mining companies.

    The manager of the mansion could have cared less and said that I could keep them and laughed at me for believing they could have value. So in my spare time for the next month, I called a special number at the stock exchanges and wrote letters inquiring about who the successor company was. All of them, I mean hundreds of names, eventually went bankrupt either on their own or on their acquirer’s watch. Big lesson learned with only a little “wasted time”.

    However, being very young, the experience tainted me, and it was the primary reason I did not buy gold at $50 per ounce in the 1970’s. Heck, the price per ounce at that time was the single cost of some of my college textbooks that had worthless knowledge in them.

    Mar 12, 2021 12:54 PM

    Great words of wisdom and experiences Sach. Exceptional story and although we don’t like some of the lessons we learn in life, like I was telling a constituent how do you learn ? This wasn’t that long ago and I have no regrets in my life whatsoever that’s what I told him.

    The process is going through all the motions and retaining all the education through all the trials and errors. That’s the only way to be successful and there’s an old saying “” the harder you work , the luckier you get.”” I had a lot of luck however I put in so many hours that it’s inconceivable. You have to do it when you’re young too. I’m past that and I’m just on total cruise control and time is more important than money now. Certainly, can’t take the risks I did.
    Lastly, I remember one time I had everything on the line and it came up a big winner and that’s what helped elevate me to the next level. Very very risky in fact I don’t even know how today I even managed to do it and everything I did. I’m just very grateful and very fortunate and appreciate everything that I went through and all the terrible things that happened too.
    In fact, every time I experienced a big loss I was always optimistic because I knew that was part of my learning curve. Anyone that thinks they can just be successful overnight in regards with investing has a long ways to go. Some of the most lucky investors ended up losing everything because they build too much confidence and then they think they’re going to make money on every trade and they get completely destroyed. There’s a Day of reckoning coming very soon for people because everybody’s an expert in real estate and stocks. We’ll see what happens.