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The possible counter trend year of Dollar up and commodities under pressure

Cory
March 24, 2021

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold joins me for a discussion on the relationship between the US Dollar and commodities he sees playing out this year. The Dollar has been rising this whole year while just in the last month commodities have started to correct lower. We also look at silver and gold in terms of general weakness in the stocks.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.

Discussion
74 Comments
    Mar 24, 2021 24:46 AM

    deflation first imho….that pushing on the string thing….then velocity of money increases and chases the goods scarcity..seems reasonable, I wish someone actually knew…lmao๐Ÿ˜œ…just trust the chart….i do not mind paying up for the greater clarity of a turn around…everyone here will be shouting it anywho…..

    smart guest in Jordan

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stockman-while-wall-street-bubbles-jay-pow-babbles?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

      Mar 24, 2021 24:02 PM

      Larry, do you mean there will be deflationary pressures or actual deflation?
      The former is inevitable but the latter is very unlikely.

        Mar 24, 2021 24:15 PM

        I really am not sure Matthew….I used to be certain that inflation was the only rational outcome…Now I have begun to favor a deflationary economic scare followed by panic buying and inflation……. Of course more currency imbalance will produce dollar devaluation and also more dollars chasing less stuff…..Does it mean that whiffs of deflation cannot emerge…..Not certain of that..Why, if the economy is collapsing under all the money printing who will chase the goods scarcity?….What ever really plays out I take it to be a very serious factor on the future of america and all the regular folks lifestyle…..Honestly, when buyers enter the chart will show it…That is how I stay sane….I like charts

          Mar 24, 2021 24:43 PM

          That’s interesting. It’s the opposite for me. I’ve been sure of inflation for a long time and am now more sure than ever. The “pushing on a string” argument might matter to real measures of economic health but is meaningless to the Fed’s ability to devalue the debt paper that it emits and fraudulently calls money. It can and will keep destroying the dollar’s purchasing power regardless of whether or not it falls versus other currencies.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:01 PM

            I do agree of course…just something else is out there…You know hat i mean Matthew especially as a trader…….It just cannot be this obvious….I just will continue to look for tradable patterns and hope i am not forced to pay dearly on limit up occurrences if faked out of market….My 2

      Mar 24, 2021 24:44 PM

      I could see a little deflationary pressure if the Dollar rises for the short to medium term, as Jordan mentioned, but once that trade rolls over, and the greenback starts to head back lower, it will push commodities right back up, and when paired with rising wages, we should see cost-push inflation.

      Larry I also agree with you that unlike the QE of last decade (where banks and financial companies soaked up the money to cook their toxic books, and then buy the general markets); in contrast, these new stimulus bills for trillions of dollars that keep popping, with more proposed, have helicopter money going to small businesses and individuals, and the latest has infrastructure spending proposed. This will increase the velocity of money, and that is what leads to inflation, not just money creation alone. The velocity of money decreased for much of the prior decade, but has been picking up since last year, and the market expectations of inflation are starting to price that in, regardless of the bogus government CPI numbers, which greatly understate true inflation. This is why for many months we’ve see raw commodities like Copper, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Silver, Oil, Lithium, Strategic Metals, Soft Commodities & Grains, etc… all moving higher.

    Mar 24, 2021 24:04 PM

    Impact Silver Announces Full Year 2020 Results Net Income Rose to $2.3 Million on $15.6 Million Revenue
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/impact-silver-announces-full-2020-152000350.html

    I got two orders for IPT filled today at an average price below .69 and will probably buy more very soon.

      Mar 24, 2021 24:14 PM

      I bought a little IPT at the bottom today. Did not get fully filled. Call me crazy.

        Mar 24, 2021 24:20 PM

        I had mentioned adding to IPT yesterday, so we’ll all be crazy together. ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

          Mar 24, 2021 24:33 PM

          If Silver does pull down to the $22-$23 level that many have proposed, then there will likely be more downside pressure in the silver stocks, including Impact, so I’m prepared to buy more at those levels and get even crazier. As Matthew mentioned yesterday, often times the miners will sniff out the bottom and turn up sooner than the metals, and Impact Silver is a good bellwether stock and generally leads the developing trends as an early mover.

            Mar 24, 2021 24:47 PM

            Yes just an initial toe dip.

      Ann
      Mar 24, 2021 24:03 PM

      I also

    Mar 24, 2021 24:11 PM

    The hangover is coming folks. We’re going to have a deflationary route. We’re in everything bubble. We could be entering a selling frenzy. Precious metals will be completely decimated.
    Tom McClellan is pointing this out regarding deficits etc historical perspective

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan032421.html

    By the way, all I see is bullish editorials and everyone looking for higher prices. Last one out, please turn out the lights.

    Mar 24, 2021 24:21 PM

    Most likely protocols. The deflationary route selling frenzy. After it’s run its course and then FED will print money to infinity that’s when we’ll see precious metals take off and never look back. I wouldn’t want to be holding Junior mining companies especially those explorers. That’s probably the most easiest way to lose money if this deflationary route takes hold.

    Mar 24, 2021 24:19 PM

    Novo ended in a blood bath today. Stuck in a trading range for years.

    MJ stocks can’t rally even after a decimating bloodbath.

    I hear all the propaganda for break outs, don’t see any action.

      Mar 24, 2021 24:50 PM

      Everytime novo dips below 2 I purchase some—-I’m waiting patiently for it to do it again sometime in April.

        Mar 24, 2021 24:43 PM

        If it gets down to 0.50 I might be buying some shares from ya. On a more serious note, I’m going to wait for the fire sale. May never come though, no regrets. It’s either going to break out or start breaking down because it can’t go up, it’s not doing anything. For now, it’s just a trading vehicle staying within that range.

          Mar 24, 2021 24:34 PM

          I’m afraid it’s going to end with a whimper and then trade in a range for awhile. That’s the time to really accumulate.

            Mar 24, 2021 24:30 PM

            Usually when a stock trades in a range like that for a very long time and refuses to break out, in other words, it just won’t go up. The only other option is it goes down because investors get frustrated and get very tired of waiting end up selling.

    Mar 24, 2021 24:22 PM

    People still need shelter………..and food………
    Prices might go down in shelter, but, prices are still going to go up,
    they always do…….as long as there is printing….
    We had 18% interest rates in the late 70%…..and there were still people looking for
    housing, (shelter)….. Shelter is basic, …..food is basic..
    Nobody needs stocks….hummmm

      Mar 24, 2021 24:22 PM

      First, possibly a quick deflationary route and then hyperinflation. This is the most likely outcome. The odds are 80%. This is my own analysis and estimation. The Central Planners always have operated where the masses are not allowed to get wealthy because that would take away the workforce. The masses do not invest their money they spend money and that causes inflation. Most likely they’re going to engineer a big correction and then that’s when you’ll see hyperinflation take off. The rich will be buying everything up on the correction and then the masses will not be participating. These are the protocols. A very high probability however there’s no guarantee. This is how the operate.

        Mar 25, 2021 25:25 AM

        Tom McCLoud out with a note yesterday……….
        PETRO DOLLAR……………7 countries are now using the Yuan for oil trade.
        This is HUGE.

          Mar 25, 2021 25:07 AM

          They’re also coming out with a Fed coin. There’s going to be a lot of changes. So no one really knows. I’m not hoping for hyperinflation. That’s even worse than a deflationary collapse.
          Major changes are on the way and it’s extremely negative moving forward. New Fed coin might stop a catastrophe for a short period of time, I don’t know.

          The point is, The Central Planners always cause a deflationary route. The general public have sold most of their assets and then the rich come in and buy everything it’s the same old game. The masses can’t be allowed to get rich because we wouldn’t have anyone in the workforce but who knows if that’s going to happen it’s very very likely. The general population spend money and they cause inflation.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:15 AM

            What ever it is the FAKE FED comes out with will not benefit MANKIND…..
            Americanos ….should have already WOKE UP……
            You would think after 100 yrs…some light bulbs would light up….

            Mar 25, 2021 25:19 AM

            DEBT………is the Killer……..and always will be……
            Anyone that reads history, …go back 3000 yrs.
            They had DEBT Jubilee for a reason. ๐Ÿ™‚

            Mar 25, 2021 25:28 AM

            That’s why I said the Fed coin might stop a catastrophe temporarily. The whole system is fake. They’re going to try and fake everyone out if there’s a deflationary route and then everything will come back after the general public has sold most of their assets.

            We’ll see !!! I wouldn’t want to have any debt right now or leverage. However, that might work out beautifully for a lot of people who knows. Most likely deflation comes first so I’m geared for that event. I’m geared for all the above. There’s going to be a lot of circumstances though no one can avoid.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:29 AM

            Just a note……..the FED IS BUYING EVERYTHING……and who are the lucky fake fed members….. humm 52% privately owned……what a joke.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:33 AM

            Ditto on the DEBT……ZERO…..I have been telling everyone I know… since 1988, GET OUT OF DEBT. Go and owe no man….period.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:33 AM

            Good point, and they’re not going to allow deflation very long. We have to remember though, they can do anything they want and can engineer anything they want. They can print money and avoid having a margin call or any type of debt service they’re in control completely.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:15 AM

            You are correct……..they can do anything………
            And the stupid sheeple allow it…..

            Mar 25, 2021 25:39 AM

            All depends, you can get really wealthy with the system very quickly with owning assets that rise astronautically in value and if they can contain inflation. Leverage can work in a lot of ways that can benefit a lot of people and then again if the timing is wrong then it’s going to destroy those individuals that are using those instruments to get rich.

            They want to keep this game going, they must clean out the average person to control inflation and keep people working as I said in other messages.

            They can keep inflating and keep destroying wealth as we go however inflation still going to be up. So I suspect that they will complete the operation of a quick deflationary event that will control inflation and keep people working.

            In conclusion, this system works great for people that want to get rich and you can do it fairly quickly if your timing is accurate and you’re invested in the right assets. Most people, can’t accomplish this because they’re too myopic and their patience is very limited. If anyone’s invested in gold and they don’t have any leverage, just stay put and it’ll all come out in the end staying ahead of the inflationary trend.

            You just have to identify – they’re called CONES this analysis goes back decades. Just have to identify the particular cone asset that the money is going to flow into in significant quantities and then you get rich it’s real simple. There’s many many examples of that in the last 10 years and the problem is most people don’t have the patience they want to get rich now we live in a Burger King world.

            Precious metals are going to explode at some point so it’s all about patience. Traders are notorious for not making any money because they’re whipsawed and they get into the wrong time and sell out the wrong time. They’re just losing money all the way into the bull market gold could go to $5,000 and they lose money.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:44 AM

            Been there done that…
            Great comments for the youthful people still climbing the latter.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:45 AM

            sorry…….ladder…….

            Mar 25, 2021 25:14 AM

            I’m settled down and not playing the game myself because time is worth more than money. Although, if I see something that’s just irresistible , I’ll just go all in. Timing has to be perfect because I don’t have time to wait, I don’t have any time. Real estate is a surefire way to get rich over 30 years if you can deal with renting out the properties and sorting through securing qualified tenants. There again, there’s a lot of patience and the average person doesn’t have. You pay off all your loans and have a property that’s clear title if you don’t write off all the depreciation and too many expenses because that must be added back into your capital gain. So now you created a serious tax problem. Nothing but problems out there.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:15 AM

            HG…… I can argue with anything you have commented on…..
            Since, everything is so screwed up , as we think we knew….

            Mar 25, 2021 25:17 AM

            HG….sorry,…..forgot …NOT…..can not argue…..

            Mar 25, 2021 25:29 AM

            I’m anxious for nothing and that’s the way you have to be because greed is what destroys us. How many investors right now in the gold space that are going to make money very very few I can probably count them on my two hands I mean it’s bad. Everyone in here posting will be gone and most likely very high percentage of made nothing and they’re probably going to lose a lot of money all the way up to 5,000 AU.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:52 AM

            Buy low…… and it better have been decades ago… ๐Ÿ™‚

            Mar 25, 2021 25:54 AM

            Phyz……of course ,

            Mar 25, 2021 25:58 AM

            How about 1980. There’s a lot of unhappy campers. That’s 40 years ago. Just think if you had placed your money in something else you’d be multiple multiple times higher.

            Timing is everything.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:12 AM

            I am not going to tell you what I was doing in 1980….
            I missed that rush. To busy with other things…. ๐Ÿ™‚
            That was a lesson…..at 18% interest.
            Good lesson for the rule of 72…. lol

            Mar 25, 2021 25:21 AM

            The good old Rule of 72 man do I remember that. It wasn’t simple interest. You got stiffed for most of the interest up front. I was buying your Datsun 240Z 280Z 260Z cars and even Mazda RX7 new. I would sell them for more than what I paid for them a year or two later I would drive them for free. That’s what I started to take off financially. Many a hay days for decades.

            Mar 25, 2021 25:27 PM

            ๐Ÿ™‚

            Mar 25, 2021 25:40 PM

            ๐Ÿ‘ Thanks for bringing back those days of old memories.

            Exception, the rule of 72. ๐Ÿ‘ŽBanksters

            Mar 25, 2021 25:39 PM

            The magic is being on the correct side of the RULE OF 72…..it works both ways….

            Mar 25, 2021 25:49 PM

            Everything is simple interest now however when I was dealing with the rule of 72 I don’t know what you mean and the interest is all earned up front but it’s been decades since we had to deal with that. You said works both ways I don’t understand that it’s been so long never have to deal with that again. I don’t borrow money anyway. Neither of us do I don’t think from what you said.

    b
    Mar 24, 2021 24:34 PM

    The world seems to be speeding up dropping of the american dollar.

    Russia,China,Iran and Turkey are already using national currencies between them.
    The brics New Development bank intends to reduce their use of the dollar by 50% favoring national currencies.
    25% of their 15 billion was national currencies in 2019.

    Gotta be inflationary.

    BDC
    Mar 24, 2021 24:13 PM

    NY close. Markets(active): https://tinyurl.com/3fjs3ex8

    Mar 24, 2021 24:50 PM

    How long before this happens in North America???? Lefty economics.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/newzealand-housing-idUSL1N2LK2NX

    Mar 24, 2021 24:40 PM

    Maybe it’s wishful thinking but SILJ looks like it could drop 5% or more tomorrow…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p30864557049&a=869528082

    Mar 24, 2021 24:57 PM

    Where’s Glen ?……….

      Mar 24, 2021 24:30 PM

      He’s looking at his “head/shoulders” in the mirror and pondering whether they need surgery.

      Mar 24, 2021 24:05 PM

      Good (MTA) Metalla chart Matthew. I had recently started a position again, after it had pulled back substantially from where I had sold it at higher levels, but it would be concerning if it dropped much lower and lost that trendline support. I may move those funds back out at around a zero-sum wash, and wait to poach it at lower levels.

        Mar 25, 2021 25:55 PM

        I sold completely out of MTA on Jan 4 @ $12.67, and after things had pulled back substantially, I got repositioned on Feb 26 @ $8.71. I sold half the new position on Mar 10 @ $9.85, and the rest today Mar 25 @ $8.35, making it a net 4.4% gain, so basically getting out at a wash.

        I’ll be waiting a bit longer to see if MTA breaks supports and presents a more attractive entry point.

      Mar 25, 2021 25:04 AM

      Matthew I know nothing about MTA…But it looks ok if gold holds up…At least the way I read…Looks like a classic daily triple bottom test on collapsing volume w nice 14RSI divergence…1st hammer 607K, 2cnd hammer 468K and todays candle a sniveling 136k, so far…Weekly shows it at ICE, mid oscillation w light volume…Hope is in the spring for sure…But when?….

    Mar 24, 2021 24:13 PM

    Lynette Zang: Why You Must Get Out of the System; The Fed’s Master Plan

    Stansberry Research – Mar 22, 2021

    “The Federal Reserve has been unable to hit their 2% inflation target, but Lynette Zang, Chief Market Analyst at ITM Trading, contends that the central bank is getting prepared because they expect to lose control of inflation soon. She adds that it plans to quietly introduce a cashless system with an 18-step plan in 2021. “This new system will enable the Fed to deposit money directly and give them absolute control of their policies. This coming UBI stimulus scheme will be the fuel that starts the hyperinflation fire since we are a consumer-driven economy; they have to get us to consume,” Zang tells our Daniela Cambone. This pandemic crisis is very convenient for central bankers, as it provides an excuse for all the systemic problems,” she explains.

    https://youtu.be/n-sXbsQoh78

    Mar 25, 2021 25:54 AM

    RICHARD/DOC says:
    Heโ€™s looking at his โ€œhead/shouldersโ€ in the mirror and pondering whether they need surgery.

    Hey Doc!

    You funny rascal..

    Irish Im here thank you for your concern ๐Ÿ™‚

    Gold Update anyone?

    Give me a holler …….
    Reply to this comment

      Mar 25, 2021 25:27 AM

      HOLLER……..NO.1……… ๐Ÿ™‚
      I have been away from my desk…. out fishing for silver… ๐Ÿ™‚

        Mar 25, 2021 25:31 AM

        I went yesterday……to two of my favorite coin shops, where I have to educate the poor souls in the shop.. ๐Ÿ™‚ Well, besides that…..I observed the crowds…., and the only thing , I can say, after three days of observation….. The silver and gold are flying off the shelves…

          Mar 25, 2021 25:55 AM

          It is too bad that Wall Street doesn’t get it….:(

            Mar 25, 2021 25:10 AM

            ๐Ÿ™‚ Ditto David…

    Mar 25, 2021 25:52 AM

    otay okay…back in Nugt due to 61.8 retrace, gap test, contracting volumes…If the market does tank more, likely…out

    https://tos.mx/r2R9l9a

    Mar 25, 2021 25:40 AM

    Since all this puts me in a bad mood, I added to what was bad: Granite Creek and Bitterroot. There! I feel like I got a deal.

      Mar 25, 2021 25:11 AM

      Ha, ha……… good one….

    Mar 25, 2021 25:37 AM

    Relative to the 600 day EMA, .67 is the new .39 for IPT…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p85637501785

      Mar 25, 2021 25:54 AM

      .67 happens to mark the 600 week EMA at the moment as well as a fork support that would set-up a move to near .50 if broken. Note the big bullish cup-and-handle pattern that might be in the works…
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62603324273&a=927574277

        Mar 25, 2021 25:00 AM

        I looked at the chart and my first reaction was “where is there a coup and handle”…then I saw the whole darn chart was a cup and handle forming. Thanks…cool