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When will fundamentals actually matter for the gold stocks?

Cory
July 19, 2021

John Rubino. Founder of the Dollar Collapse website joins us to share his insights on the selloff today mostly focused on gold and gold stocks. He points out that gold is not down much compared to the selloff in other markets but the gold stocks are getting hit. John mentions fundamentals and how the markets are disconnected from the fundamentals he is watching.

Click here to visit John’s site – Dollar Collapse.

Discussion
44 Comments
    Jul 19, 2021 19:26 PM

    40+ miners in my portfolio…100% in the red.

      Jul 19, 2021 19:45 PM

      Yep, PM miners going through liquidation selling. 90% down days – three of four days in a row. Volume is fairly low however, so it looks like the weak hands are all bailing during slow summer trading. Such is life in the PM market. The stocks move up and down in powerful emotional impulse waves. It can and will turnaround.

        Jul 19, 2021 19:47 PM

        Yes brutal selling in the mining stocks today and recently indeed.

        My personal portfolio of stocks was deep in the red today down 6%, and the last 2 weeks have stung a bit, but we’ve seen this kind of thing many times in the resource sector over the years. Still, it’s never fun to go through it when it happens.

        JustTruth – good points about the relatively lower volumes in many stocks though during the summer doldrums. There are just not many buyers to absorb the selling so down they go. Things are getting pretty oversold, but in about a dozen stocks today I decided to sell partial or complete positions for tax loss purposes, to wash out some of the capital gains I was sitting on for this year, and I’ll repurchase them in 30+ days. Some of those funds got rotated into buys in other stocks that got monkey hammered down today in my portfolio, since my selling freed up funds to reinvest. Overall a fugly day in the resource sector, and in many sectors across the board.

          Jul 20, 2021 20:40 AM

          Govt. already LOST all the tax revenue…. no need to contribute to the BLACK HOLE… lol
          Just send them an IOU NOTHING… Fed should not miss your contribution of cash, … it is worthless fiat anyways… just tell um…. . lol…..
          And….while you are at it, ….ask them if they got the JAB…

            Jul 21, 2021 21:44 AM

            Haha! Agreed OOTB. Yes, I don’t want to contribute to the black hole of taxes except when there is no other option. Since many mines have pulled back substantially, I saw the opportunity to take the tax loss sales now, wash out a great deal of capital gains, and reinvest the proceeds into existing positions or new positions that are also on sale.

            Yes, the fiat is becoming more nonsensical and as the saying goes eventually “cash is trash.” 🙂

          Jul 20, 2021 20:56 AM

          Ex:
          Followed your lead and took some losses in some good ones. I decided to see what 31 days from now brings for a rebuy. If they run positive, then see what is kicking at the time. Reduced tax bill at least 20%.

            Jul 20, 2021 20:19 AM

            Yep, I decided tax loss selling came early for me, as I needed to wash out some of the capital gains I’ve been sitting on, and have the thesis that the second half of the year is going to be more constructive than the first half was, so best to take the losses now, and add to some of my other positions now while they are hammered down, and then buy back some that I trimmed or sold in 30+ days so I don’t mess up the wash sale rules. We’ll see how it goes…

            Jul 20, 2021 20:39 AM

            EX:
            This may shock you (NOT), but once these sales clear at the end of the week, I may use Emerita to hold during the “wash” period.

            Jul 20, 2021 20:36 PM

            No, that doesn’t shock me David, as I know you are a fan of Emerita, and it has been a fantastic trade for you. Really well done sir.

            For me I’ve spread about 3/4 of the funds from tax loss selling to either fortify other core positions that I want to hold during the 30+ day “wash period”, and I even started a few new positions in stocks I’ve had on the watchlist for a while that I believe may have more compelling short to medium term catalysts than some of the stocks I trimmed or sold out of.

    Jul 19, 2021 19:30 PM

    SPY topped versus gold weeks ago and is now breaking uptrend support that began last August.
    SPY:GLD
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p88950126903&a=976577908

    cfs
    Jul 19, 2021 19:32 PM

    If history is prologue, as R.R. likes to say, the 1929-30 experience tells us Homestake dropped badly before rising spectacularly during the depression much later.

    Jul 19, 2021 19:54 PM

    It took a year but the XAU finally made it to the fork support that it couldn’t reach in March.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p48508717091&a=986055675

    Jul 19, 2021 19:38 PM

    Very nice fork action on this 60 minute GDXJ:GLD chart:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=21&id=p79011430084&a=988494299
    (StockCharts subs only)

    Jul 19, 2021 19:07 PM

    SILJ:GLD found support at a 50% Fibonacci fan after falling 28% in one month…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p04291482496&a=704164857

    Jul 19, 2021 19:51 PM

    SLV:GLD found support precisely at the intersection of two fork supports and finished the day at .137 (Physicist Laurence Eaves, a professor at the University of Nottingham, thinks the number 137 would be the one you’d signal to the aliens to indicate that we have some measure of mastery over our planet and understand quantum mechanics. The aliens would know the number as well, especially if they developed advanced sciences.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlSLIW0gZtk

        Jul 20, 2021 20:15 AM

        Thanks for the charts and commentary Matthew. I like the alien connection!

          Jul 20, 2021 20:36 AM

          I thought it had to mean something! 😁👽

          SCORPIO GOLD REPORTS 20.04 G/T GOLD OVER 15.3 M IN FIRST HOLE OF EXPLORATION DRILLING AT THE MANHATTAN MINE PROPERTY, NEVADA
          https://www.scorpiogold.com/news/scorpio-gold-reports-20.04-gt-gold-over-15.3-m-in-first-hole-of-exploration-drilling-at-the-manhattan-mine-property-nevada/

            Jul 20, 2021 20:22 AM

            Scorpio needs to break that 13 cent resistance level and if it does look out!

            Ann you out there? Remember I told you Scorpio I’m July could look good? It’s now or never lol.. the news looks good now gold needs to break higher. Fingers crossed not a cat bounce and back to candy store.

            Glen

            Jul 20, 2021 20:49 AM

            Hey Matthew – What do you think about Jaquar Mining these days?

            Jul 20, 2021 20:36 AM

            I no longer own it but it’s a buy right now in my book. The balance sheet and free cashflow are solid and with a 5.6 PE, 6.5% dividend and far more cash than its negligible debt, it is cheap.
            The big risk it has that larger producers don’t is the exposure to just one country but at least it is diversified within the country and Brazil seems safe to me aside from the possibility of more temporary “covid” related closures.

            If it has more downside, I don’t think it is much BUT ignore my opinion if you think gold is going materially lower.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAGGF&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p01915772804&a=991141150

            Jul 20, 2021 20:29 PM

            Thanks. I take it you swapped out for more silver miners?

            Jul 20, 2021 20:57 PM

            Yes but I’m sure I bought some others too including Galleon Gold. It’s been quite awhile since I sold so I’m probably forgetting a few.

            Jul 20, 2021 20:38 PM

            Interesting discussions on both Scorpio Mining and Jaguar Mining. I own both, but haven’t added or trimmed to either, and have just been holding steady.

            Jul 21, 2021 21:02 AM

            Agreed Ex and good to know you are still holding Jaguar Mining. That 6.5% yield is what I like, but jurisdiction risk is certainly a consideration. Matthew, I looked at the Galleon Gold investor presentation and see Sprott is involved. Good location in Timmons and recent high grade gold drill results with significant 46,000 meter drill campaign. Do you know when their options/warrants expire? Wondering if that might be part of the current pressure on the stock. I didn’t see anything in the presentation on that. Cash position was $5 million in February down from $8 million the prior year. Any thoughts on if they will need to raise cash soon? Was there anything else that drew you to Galleon?

            Jul 21, 2021 21:55 AM

            Hi Charles, yes I’m holding Jaguar from much lower levels and love the high dividend yield that pays me to wait out this corrective move. As for them operating in Brazil, they have done so for over a decade now, so I’m not as concerned about it as some are, barring a covid situation, as Matthew mentioned.

            As for people liking to follow companies with Eric Sprott involved, well this is one of his largest positions, and he owns 49% of JAG, so that should tell investors exactly what he thinks of the potential at Jaguar mining.

            Jul 21, 2021 21:03 AM

            Charles, I was drawn to Galleon by its value and exploration potential (blue sky). Value is, of course, related to what the company has, might have, and where it has it in addition to my views on gold itself.
            I do not like all the paper outstanding and it is something that must be overcome but my net assessment is that the play is worthwhile and could still easily offer a triple before gold really gets moving. A new resource estimate is coming along with a share consolidation which should not be too disruptive since most shareholders know it’s coming.
            From the MD&A:
            Exercise of outstanding options, and other future issuances of securities, will result in dilution of our common
            shares.
            As at February 28, 2021, share capital consisted of:
            • 470,642,928 issued and outstanding common shares;
            • 21,800,000 options outstanding and exercisable at exercise price ranges from $0.05 – $0.30 and weighted
            average remaining contractual life of 3.60 years; and
            • 148,650,074 outstanding warrants with exercise price ranges from $0.05 – $0.18 and weighted average
            remaining contractual life of 2.19 years.

            As at April 27, 2021, share capital consisted of:
            • 470,865,655 issued and outstanding common shares;
            • 27,350,000 outstanding and exercisable options with exercise price ranges from $0.05 to $0.16;
            • 148,427,348 outstanding warrants with exercise price range from $0.05 to $0.18.
            — — — — —

            At least the exercise of those warrants will cash up the company so we will get something for the dilution and they outnumber the options by more than 5 times.

            Jul 21, 2021 21:32 AM

            Good thoughts Ex and Matt. Thanks for the response.

            Jul 21, 2021 21:13 PM

            This might provide useful info if you haven’t already seen it:
            https://galleongold.com/site/assets/files/3858/20210119_-_mp_-_ggo_-_fact_sheet.pdf

            It’s from MPartners, not Galleon.

            Jul 21, 2021 21:29 PM

            Thanks! I had not seen that analysis.

    Jul 20, 2021 20:13 AM

    Gold’s strength can be attributed to 3 things: Negative real rates, Crypto flight to safety as reports of Banks are telling their whales to roll into Gold, and continued derivative unwinding on Comex.

      Ann
      Jul 20, 2021 20:19 AM

      Hi Glen.. sure do ..You. And Matthew… 80k@.105 is all I hold.Probably a pittance to what you guys hold. Also recently..GGO (110 k at .09) and SSV(50K 31-32)I’ve got to loosen up and start putting some cash to work!!Itching to buy 5- 10 silver stocks.My husband sees $24 silver in the near future which is holding me back

        Jul 20, 2021 20:56 AM

        Hi Ann, your husband knows the clear measured target and obviously could be dead on. The caveat is that the “C” decline of the ABC correction could be bullishly truncated and end anywhere since it made a new low yesterday.
        Since I believe the very bullish fundamentals are completely intact, my guess is that it will not reach 24. In bull markets, such corrective targets are notoriously not reached.

        There’s nothing wrong with waiting for more evidence if I’m going to be even half right about our upside potential.

        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p71284524164&a=995044727

          Ann
          Jul 20, 2021 20:39 AM

          Hi Matthew.. really appreciate your response.He also appreciates all that you do here.Your name comes up in conversation more than you will ever know.

            Jul 20, 2021 20:16 PM

            Thank you, Ann. For everyone’s benefit, I should have acknowledged that he could have come up with his target by way of a completely different method. Different approaches have taken me to the same targets too many times to count over the years and always gets my attention. One would think that such occurrences would increase the odds of reaching the target but I don’t have any stats to support that. (Maybe I should have been keeping records!)
            For example, here’s another way to 24 silver support:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p71284524164&a=995088357

            Best of luck to both of you.

          Jul 20, 2021 20:47 AM

          Ann,

          Thanks for sharing your positions. I have to accounts my own plus the me and the wife together. You have done an amazing job from what you have said including that company you purchased and had like a 18 bagger can’t quite remember. If it’s any consolation I purchased scorpio a long time ago when Matthew broke it down to me. My average cost is 9.5 cents and if it goes lower I won’t hesitate. My other account is respectfully 10 cents, 10.5 and and 12 cents. I see nothing wrong with the company and don’t underestimate the books. In my books you qualify for heavy hitter. Matthews account or shares are very large. I think impact or galante is his largest holding. He can attest for that. Mine would be iamgold and I’m patiently waiting to see if iamgold breaks 3.30 then we are going into the 2’s but that’s no guarantee.

          What I would 100% agree with Matthew is the turn will come when no one expects it. I would prefer to see some explosiveness in the miners up at least Initially then docs slow approach.

          Glen

      Jul 20, 2021 20:48 AM

      Great points jerry! 👏😁

      Jul 20, 2021 20:54 AM

      Thanks for sharing ex!

      I’m still 4.6% and waiting if it doesn’t come then I’m fine with it. Have stinks bids below.

      Iamgold
      Impact
      Scorpio
      Brixton

      I’m watching closely.

        Jul 20, 2021 20:42 PM

        May your trading be prosperous Glenfidish. Out of that list I also own Impact, Scorpio, and Brixton, and all are getting into a good value range and I’ve considered adding to them lately, but have been off chasing other stocks. It’s been a really busy last 2 days for me with nearly 2 dozen trades yesterday and 3 1/2 dozen trades today, for a complete portfolio rebalancing. Crazy times!

    Jul 20, 2021 20:26 AM

    I see potential silver lows :$23.70- 24.80.

      Jul 21, 2021 21:49 AM

      That seems like a quite reasonable range for Silver to bottom Marty. If $23.70 falls then $22 would be next support.

    Ann
    Jul 20, 2021 20:41 AM

    Thanks Marty bbb ktn IPt Mmg scz sve and bhs ecu and ccw dv are some I’m hoping weaken

      Jul 21, 2021 21:58 AM

      Ann I’d submit that most of the companies you mentioned there have weakened substantially already and are at much more attractive levels for accumulation now than where they where a year ago or even a few months ago.

    Jul 20, 2021 20:21 AM

    (VG) (VLMZF) Volcanic reports 14.8m @ 3.96 g/t gold and 1,097 g/t silver, including 2.2m @ 9.79 g/t gold and 2,035 g/t silver, and 1.85m @ 5.6 g/t gold and 2,801 g/t silver at Holly Project, Guatemala

    16 Jul 2021

    https://ceo.ca/@thenewswire/volcanic-reports-148m-396-gt-gold-and-1097-gt