Craig Hemke – Hot CPI Inflation Reading, Fed Policy, Interest Rates, and Gold
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to discuss the hot CPI reading of 7.5% with inflation proving to be much stickier and running higher than most expected from just a year ago. We look at the reactions to these higher inflation readings in the general markets, bonds and interest rate yields, and gold. Craig outlines that there will be a point in the next 18 months where the precious metals will move higher when more people wake up to the lack of options available in Fed policy in response to inflation and the delayed effects those policies will have.
Glen, no worries, I’ll “time” this one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmRG0Y5N8lg
I also raised cash this week and think there will be “time”
Glen, of course such a pullback is possible but I disagree that it’s probable. The post Fed smackdown was probably enough of a test.
Everything still looks better than most realize.
Silver now needs to catch up to gold and it will.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p87106644728&a=1111101569
Silver looks almost as good versus gold as it does dollars, which is bullish for the sector.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p97747642177&a=1111580513
Silver looks better than gold even from a weekly perspective.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=5&dy=0&id=p50470261584
The problem with gold nowadays is the perception that it’s useless. The problem with silver is it’s connection to gold as a precious metal store of value, when it’s really more valuable as an input in many important applications.
When silver becomes disconnected from gold it’ll fly much higher so I’m gonna focus primarily on silver producers and those miners that have some gold in the mix.
Terry, I disagree. It is no problem at all that most people are clueless. They’re clueless about everything which is why they chase price in any sector, buying and selling at the worst possible times. The (huge) clueless crowd is made of price takers not price makers.
As for silver, the massive upside that awaits is because it is a monetary metal first and an industrial metal a distant second. Prices are set at the margin and that margin for silver is controlled by investment/monetary demand. That’s why it moves with gold and not zinc or platinum.
Got it Matthew, thank you
I think things are increasingly bullish for /GC…this consolidation on weekly is about 21 months long…..that is a lot of buying for long term holders……lmao…..for my way of trading the monthly is now in alignment w week and day charts regarding supports…worst case scenario is the support of 1580/1520 area…IMHO…..monthly view below….
note: /GC day week month has price above OUL or 9ema which ever you gauge against…..this is bullish in the moment of time of today…glta
It’s all semantics my dear Glen. No short squeeze will ever happen. If the satanists want a higher gold price they will have it. They have all the money in the world at their disposal.
GDXJ:GDX and GOEX:GDX look good because of today. Both gapped up and then shot higher before coming back to fill their gaps (which I prefer compared to filling them at a later date).
GDXJ:GDX closed above its KAMA (Kaufman’s moving average) for the first time since December and GOEX:GDX did so for the first time since the first week of January.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOEX%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07117419337
Line charts to remove intraday noise…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOEX%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30876225556
The TSX Venture Index vs Gold looks constructive short term and quite good longer term.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p85239974383&a=1111505506
SPY looks worse versus gold than it does vs dollars.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY%3AGLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=5&dy=0&id=p18773923701&a=1015547995
IWM backtested broken support today before pulling back 2.7%.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40640993742&a=726196210
The HUI turned at fork resistance yesterday and has already retraced about half of its move off the Jan. 28 low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p84622086048&a=1105555109
looks like everything coming up roses
Emergency Fed Meeting, Monday morning (11:30 a.m.)
https://goldseek.com/article/emergency-fed-meeting-monday-morning-1130-am
Rate hike 100 bps plus gold price suppression in overdrive
Freaky Friday…………. again , and again and again……………….. Have a Great One…….. 🙂
Talk about FREAKY FRIDAY……………….. TOTAL Perversion ……………..DRAG QUEEN in charge of NUKE WASTE…………(sorry but come on)
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-02-10/meet-drag-queen-biden-just-put-charge-nuclear-waste
Humanity is indeed satanically possessed. Uggly has become beautiful, perversion has become correct, Lies have become truth. Need to release ourselves from Satan’s grip. The only path is Our Lord’s Jesus Christ.
Ditto ………. Norrareal 1968…………..
Romans 1……… a few people need to read the scriptures…….
One look at the pictures in the article……….. and notice the pervert, with the dog chain, is wearing a MASK……….. Symbolic, of the MASK MANDATE………… people need to get a CLUE…….
There is very little hope for humanity as most people are pretty stupid and pretentious.
There is only one hope…………….. as you know………. through Jesus Christ…….
inflation is real but stocks and gold can help you keep up. Mitch M has broken with Trump almost complete —- he realized that he cant win Senate race with Trump fanatic candidates . Trumps pic for Senate in GA herschel w is a bad pick Senate does not need another football player like Tommy Tuberville who knows only about football and little else . Mitch doesnt want to be at 50 senators only he will never get out of his box . niether party wants to run old men like biden trump or bernie for president . more likely Holly of missouri or DeSantis of fla will be repub candidates with trump indorsements
Just an opinion, Russell needs to get his nose out of Trump’s awhole & stick it up Hunter Biden’s sperm ducked
Mitch McConnell, not unlike the NBA, is subservient to China. He is what ails the Republican party.
But this is PM sector commentary. Gold up. What has possibly gone wrong???
Sorry..Ex……………. I opened the FLOOD GATES……………………. lol…………
I did think the post on the administration of the Pervert…Drag Queen was important…….. in two different areas…… if, we go back in history to Uranium One………. 🙂
Uranium One…….Neil Froneman better wear a mask if he dares walk on the street.
This price inflation period is VERY SIMPLE SUPPLY-DEMAND INBALANCE.
Biden with his lock downs, vaccine mandates and covid itself HAS REDUCED SUPPLY. At the same time most countries have been pumping in money, so demand has NOT DROPPED.
.
RESULT = PRICE INFLATION FOR ALL NEEDED ITEMS.
No, the real culprit is inflation of the supply of “money” (really money substitutes) and other debt, or to put lipstick on it, credit. “Other” debt/credit because the bills and notes emitted by central banks are debt themselves.
What the Fed will do in the future will be a minor perturbation because, as Craig points out, it has little manouver room.
There WILL BE a problem with food. WEATHER AND FERTILIZER COST/AVAILABILITY WILLL CAUSE PRODUCTION REDUCTION for at least this year and probably longer.
China has major shortfalls and is buying up signifant S. American production.
What might happen as a result of Ukraine or Taiwan invasions is unknowable at this point in time……except I guarantee it won’t be increased supply.
Check out GLD and the two anchored VWAPs it just powered through…
https://schrts.co/fKprsJQa
Best volume since June:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=18&id=p15390025040&a=973504878
SILJ is up 6% while $SOX is down 5%…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3A%24SOX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p85974516658&a=1111133966
Hey jonsyl, notice how today’s high so far happened at a fork resistance just like the one last month? Just wondering since we know how much you enjoy those forks.
Gold and silver miners are UP while stocks are DOWN and miner MACD buy signals versus SPY abound…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=11&id=p63823964234
Gold price jumps as U.S. warns Russia could attack Ukraine ‘any day’
Funny gold only jumps now, the americans have been screaming war in ukraine any day for weeks.
Gold’s jump was consistent with many technical factors including the back-to-back closes above resistance the last two days.
Now we can assume that the gold chart was right, not the GLD chart which hadn’t broken before out today because it keeps stock market hours.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=18&id=p53120973383&a=1110860023
Some up some down. 2 o3 oil stocks down… it wasn’t the day to go up for 2 of them. -$780 for the day. Started liquidating and rolling into fewer stocks as some up and some down has produced no movement.
Just found out gold went up today. Couldn’t tell it in my account. Just another day of a nothing burger and irrational fundamental reaction to bad news.
Excellent implementation of your method Matthew!……well, while i was focusing on timing BOIL entry today the NUGT broke low orbit…We will see….This would mean we have a seasonal cycle low here and now if if it clears old resistance…..Today goes to Matthew and enough said on that…clear victory
Positive divergence between BOIL and UNG bottoms.
Thanks Larry. I’m very aware that my method and even analysis has not been made clear here and part of the reason is that it would be way too much work so I avoid the frustration. What I do post what amounts to narrow views of some tools with little explanation but plenty of opinion. So experienced traders like yourself are probably often left with more questions than those who don’t use charts at all.
Sometimes I wonder if my use of some forks helps to tune them up somehow. Probably not but, for example, I first used the following one on GDXJ at the December low and then the January low and today’s high hit it more precisely. Of course, now I think it’s going to break above resistance very soon.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p68471394078&a=1105555118
GDX vs QQQ is at a 6 month high.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p79998641669&a=1105450469
GLD broke out on the highest volume since June. Only two days in the last 17 months had higher volume and both were bearish displays so today’s bullish action stands alone after the 2020 top.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=18&id=p03482880679&a=973504878
I wonder if Glen will be offered more cookies to stay with the dark side. 🍪🧛🏻♂️
Weekly GLD anchored VWAPs:
https://schrts.co/jqFqtCMh
Someone alerted me privately to a mistake I made above. I put a Hecla chart where I meant to put the following GDX:QQQ chart:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AQQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p18103317903&a=1013313101
The order block I mentioned few days ago at 1830 give or take has turned out to be a significant resistance zone which was well known. Now if you listen carefully to what I said I believe we can go back and top that 1785/1780 zone are and resume back up since it is very early in the daily cycle. We don’t have to do that but the odds are favouring that there are a few monthly gaps left behind him. I still remain overall Bullish I’m almost all in nothing has changed. My view continues to be that the banks are trapped in the short positions at 1680 or just below another massive order block and this long-term oscillation of back-and-forth has been no more than accumulation for the banks to position themselves and possibly rid themselves of their short positions at 1680 so I agree with some viewers that at some point we are going to have the mother of all short squeeze and so I would say being in a massive cash position is going to leave you chasing as you cannot time these things.